Is this the year, that we finally hang the "Sheets" out to dry?

[rluzinski]

Suppan's deal is structured so he makes quite a bit more after 2008. It really seems as though its set up for him to be traded next off season. (Plus, his no trade clause expires after this season as well)

 

And as many of us pointed out when he was signed, there's a decent chance no one would even consider trading for him at what he's going to make. He has another 4.6 ERA season and I just don't see it.

[Ennder]

Yeah it seems to me the deal is more structured to make it hard to trade Suppan. If they had put more money up front he'd be a much more attractive trade target once the no trade clause is done.

[sbrylski]

Suppan's deal is structured so he makes quite a bit more after 2008. It really seems as though its set up for him to be traded next off season. (Plus, his no trade clause expires after this season as well)

 

And as many of us pointed out when he was signed, there's a decent chance no one would even consider trading for him at what he's going to make. He has another 4.6 ERA season and I just don't see it.

Javier Vazquez

2004 - NYA - 4.91 ERA - Due to make $10.5M the following season.

January 11, 2005: Traded by the New York Yankees with Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson.

2005 - ARI - 4.42 ERA - Due to make $11.5M the following season.

December 20, 2005: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Chicago White Sox for Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino, and Chris Young.

 

Not saying we'll get a big return for Suppan, but there should be some type of a market. It'd just be a salary shedding move.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure, and you can always theorize that the Crew would assume enough of that salary to make any deal work. Suppan at $10 mil. for 2009 would improve a lot of teams... and maybe even at $12.5 mil., the Brewers should consider hanging on to him.

[hauser42]

Sure, and you can always theorize that the Crew would assume enough of that salary to make any deal work. Suppan at $10 mil. for 2009 would improve a lot of teams... and maybe even at $12.5 mil., the Brewers should consider hanging on to him.

If he keeps on putting the innings up each like year like he has that could be a huge bargain. Batter defense should help his numbers this year since he is not a strike out guy.

[Invader3K]

A lot of teams just need a guy who's going to be "OK-ish" and eat innings. Suppan does that. Frankly, I don't get why so many are assuming the Brewers will or should trade him.

 

I don't like the idea that it has to be either Sheets/Suppan who the Brewers keep. There are scenarios that could play out where they retain both after 2008.

[logan82]

Suppan still has a limited no trade clause after this season. He can veto trade to up to 8 teams(selected annualy) a year(per MLB4U.com).

 

 

To me, Suppan brings what you want out of your 4th - 5th pitcher. He pitches every time it is his turn, but he doesn't really cover enough innings in most starts to give your bulpen any rest. I see him as rotation filler.

[TooLiveBrew]

but he doesn't really cover enough outings in most starts to give your bulpen any rest.

 

Soup in 2007 was actually quite a bit more valuable than the typical 4th/5th SP imo with IP as a main criterion. He averaged 6.08 IP/Start, well above league-average (5.72).

[rluzinski]

Not saying we'll get a big return for Suppan, but there should be some type of a market. It'd just be a salary shedding move.

 

Well, virtually any player can be traded if you are willing to pay part of his contract or are willing to take overpaid players in return. The point I was trying to make is, if Suppan has the same results in 2008 as he did in 2007, he'll most likely have an "upside-down" contract. His expected future performance probably won't be worth as much as he's guaranteed for 2009 and 2010 ($25 mil!).

 

If the market says that Suppan is only worth $8 mil over his final 2 years, the Brewers will have to make up the $9 mil difference by giving up money or taking on another negative value contract. You wouldn't be able to just trade him and make the bad contract just go, poof. Of course, if Suppan comes back and has 16 wins and a 4.10 ERA in 2008, I'll be a lot more optimistic about the situation.

[Fatter than Joey]

Frankly, I don't get why so many are assuming the Brewers will or should trade him (Suppan).

 

Usually the Suppan trade discussions happen when we are discussing resigning Sheets.

[orca1963]

I am not so sure about him (Sheets) being as money hungry as he seems to made out here. Didn't he sign the last contract with us when he could have gone for more elsewhere? Maybe he is one of the rare one's that money isn't everything. Someone help me out with what he signed for vs what he could have gotten last time.

[Gopher74]

A lot of teams just need a guy who's going to be "OK-ish" and eat innings. Suppan does that. Frankly, I don't get why so many are assuming the Brewers will or should trade him.

 

I don't like the idea that it has to be either Sheets/Suppan who the Brewers keep. There are scenarios that could play out where they retain both after 2008.

Sure, there are possibly scenario's in which you could keep both, but that doesn't mean that you should. I'm of the opinion that there could be 5 starting pitchers on the Milwaukee Brewers next year if we keep Sheets who are better than Jeff Suppan. Gallardo, Sheets are pretty much given's, Villanueva, and Parra have the talent to be better and have looked good in small sample sizes, and then between Bush and Cappy one if not both could be a better starting option next year than Suppan. And even if those two are not, is it going to be worth the difference in money, especially when you figure we're going to have to improve the BP again next year.

 

As for the teams who would take Jeff Suppan, I don't envision us having too much trouble trading him as long as he stays healthy this season and throws 200 innings of 4.50-4.75 ball, something that should be easily attained after upgrading our defense. In fact, I could see him having a very good year with an ERA around 4.00 and winning 15+ games this year. Of course, if that happens, the list of teams that would take his contract would be about 25 teams, but let's assume he has another year like last year. I still think the;

Mets-A team that's always looking for reliable starters,

Mariners-Again, a team that's been throwing 10 million dollars at sub par starter after sub-part starter would probably gladly take him.

Phils, Rangers, Astro's, or even the Cards are all teams that could very well look to bring Suppan over to their team. The only question is, and this is largely dependent upon next season, what would we get back? A good season, and we might get something good back. Another average to below average season and it'd be a salary dump.

 

[jaybird2001wi]

I have been looking at Ben Sheets' career statistics on baseball-reference.com. There a few things that stand out in my mind:

 

1) He hasn't had a complete game shutout since his rookie year

2) There have only been three seasons in which he has eclipsed 200 or more Innings Pitched, with the last being in 2004 where he went 12-14 with a WHIP of .983.

3) It seems like his weird injuries started after the 2004 season. He started a total of 34 games in each season between 2002-2004. What exactly happened after 2004 that caused him to suffer mysterious or bizarre injuries?

4) What is more bizarre is that his best year came in 2004 when he was just 12-14, but compiled FIVE complete games and had a 2.70 ERA and had an INSANE K/BB ratio of 264:32.

 

One question, how many times has Ben Sheets been placed on the Disabled List per year? There has to be some figure out there to show a significant pattern of health decline. I'd say his durability went way downhill beginning in 2005.

[Ennder]

Sheets was abused in 2004 so not too surprised he had some issues in 2005.. Sheets also had offseason back surgery after 2004 and wasn't in full game shape when he came into the season in 2005 which didn't help either. The 2006 injury was 100% just an extension of the 2005 one, that is one injury that gapped two seasons.

 

It will sound a bit weird but this season I'm the least worried about Sheets health since the start of 2004. In 2005 he made the top 10 pitcher abuse list for the first time and I tend to avoid pitchers like that because so many break down the next year. In 2006 he was coming off an injury that was supposed to take up to a year to fully heal so was very worried. Last year I wasn't sure the arm was fully healed and was concerned he's had problems throwing a full year after only going 106 IP in 2006. This year he is coming off a year with no major injury (the finger is the not the type of thing that lingers) and off of a 140 IP year so I think he'd be ok to go a full season.

 

So now that he's looking the healthiest going into the year that he has for some time to me I am now worried about the fact his peripherals slipped last year. If we get a healthy Sheets all year I'm worried that he will be a 3.75 ERA type guy instead of the low 3 ERA guy his peripherals pointed to from 2004-2006.

[homer]

Where is the top ten pitcher abused list?

[Ennder]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=105198

 

Don't know if that is premium or not.

 

For 2004 the top 10 was...

 

 

Livan - stats slid next few years

Schmidt - Injury in 2005

Zambrano - stats sliding

V. Zambrano - injured

A. Leiter - dunno

R. Ortiz - stats slipped and injured

Madritsch - injured

Sheets - Injured

Oswalt - effective next season

Tomko - stats have slid some and had some injuries.

[logan82]

How does the pitcher abuse system work? I remembre reading about pitcher abuse points somewhere, but all I remember was going over 100 was bad. The more you go over it starts to grow exponentially.

[homer]

Thanks, that will be useful going into this year's fantasy draft.

[Ennder]

2005 was a particularily bad year for the pitcher abuse list, it isnt' always that bad the next year. Also some guys take a few years to show the wear on their arm like Livan did. The guys I tend to lower in my rankings are the guys who are high on the list for the first time in their career.