Dotel signs with White Sox (2 yrs, $11M)

[Gopher74]

I predicted the White Sox to win 74 games last year, BPro predicted them to win 72, they won 72. It was not a bunch of down years and injuries, it was a bad team. It is improved now but It will still take some luck to win more than 81 games in my opinion.

 

Btw, Crede is very mediocre. Even the year he hit 30 HR's he only had a .318 OBP which undermined the .824 OPS. He has had one year where he was average offensively for a 3B and the rest of his career he has been well below average.

Well, when Crede hit 30 HR's his OBP was .323, and that was the year before last when he was healthy, though your point is taken.

 

I don't get how it wasn't a bunch of down years and injuries. You're telling me if they'd have been healthy they wouldn't have won anymore games? I guess it's pretty easy to say that now with hindsight being what it is, but it's not that bad of a team. I'd predict 81 wins, but as you always point out, luck plays a huge hand in baseball, and if they get a lot of luck, which in my opinion mainly consists of good health and big years by their big players, then I could see them being a very good team.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd predict 81 wins [for CWS]... and if they get a lot of luck, ..., then I could see them being a very good team.

I know it's 'just' ZiPS, and of course guys can have monster years or pitful ones (or anywhere in between), but BBTF's projections for 2008 give the White Sox two players hitting better than the projected league-average for their position. Two - and one's Swisher, the other's Thome.

As for pitching, ZiPS shows 4 candidates for SP that are expected to be league average or better… and then the list falls off a cliff, with more than 5 SP possibilities well below league average. Their bullpen looks to be solid, and I'm sure team D will remain a main priority of Williams & Guillen, but I just don't understand what you like so much about them, Gopher.

[Ennder]

Well this year I'll predict more than 72, they filled a huge hole in the lineup with Swisher and Cabrera is an upgrade over the 2B they has last year (Uribe's value going from SS to 2B is about the same as last year.

 

The starting pitching is going to hold them back for sure and it is an older team so there is probably more chance for regression than breakout in the lineup. It is a tough division that they are in too. My guess is I'll put them down for 79ish, but I'm not close to ready to predict teams yet.

[Gopher74]

I'd predict 81 wins [for CWS]... and if they get a lot of luck, ..., then I could see them being a very good team.

I know it's 'just' ZiPS, and of course guys can have monster years or pitful ones (or anywhere in between), but BBTF's projections for 2008 give the White Sox two players hitting better than the projected league-average for their position. Two - and one's Swisher, the other's Thome.

 

As for pitching, ZiPS shows 4 candidates for SP that are expected to be league average or better… and then the list falls off a cliff, with more than 5 SP possibilities well below league average. Their bullpen looks to be solid, and I'm sure team D will remain a main priority of Williams & Guillen, but I just don't understand what you like so much about them, Gopher.

Again, I don't "like them so much" first of all. I said they're a team that's got a lot of offensive talent, and if their starting pitching can perform well and they can stay healthy, coupled with the Tigers being unlucky then I could see them possibly being a contender. If me predicting 81 wins for them is "liking a team so much", then fine, I guess I do.

 

As for your Zips, it's an interesting little tool, but it's certainly not a fool proof projection. I don't find it hard to imagine that Dye and Konerko perform well above league average, you've already got Swisher and Thome, Cabrera's a good SS, AJ's been a very good hitting catcher in the past, and Crede's a guy who looked like he was establishing himself as a good power hitter prior to last years injuries.

 

As for their pitching, I don't know how having 4 league average starting pitchers is a bad thing? They've also got a couple talented young arms, and a good BP as you pointed out.

 

So like I've said about 10 times on here now, if they stay healthy, and if everything goes reasonable well for them(obviously not everyone playing 162 games a year, but being relatively healthy), and if their starting pitching can develop, then I think that they've got the talent to be a pretty good team.

 

Again, I know it's the board's opinion that Kenny Williams is a joke and they're this god-awful team, but they're not. They've got some nice players on that team.

[TooLiveBrew]

My ZiPS? I think BBTF would have something to say about that.

If me predicting 81 wins for them is "liking a team so much"

 

It was this statement - "and if they get a lot of luck, which in my opinion mainly consists of good health and big years by their big players, then I could see them being a very good team" - that conveyed that you like them. You find it reasonable enough that three to four players on the downslopes of their careers will return to near-prime production. For me, that's unlikely enough to consider as slim odds.

 

Dye's turned in 500+ AB 4 years running, so has Konerko, Thome over 400 in both seasons there, Pierzynski hasn't been under 470 since 2002. Obviously any team that can add Nick Swisher improves - great pick-up. Fields should be solid or better at 3B (unless they insist on sticking w/Crede), they're around league-avg. at SS & 2B, huge questions on SPing, good bullpen. I just don't see how they hit .500, let alone get healthy & lucky & challenge Bos., NYY, & Cle.

[stoutdude04]

Just saw on MLB.com...2 year deal to the White Sox. Official now.

[Gopher74]

My ZiPS? I think BBTF would have something to say about that.

If me predicting 81 wins for them is "liking a team so much"

It was this statement - "and if they get a lot of luck, which in my opinion mainly consists of good health and big years by their big players, then I could see them being a very good team" - that conveyed that you like them. You find it reasonable enough that three to four players on the downslopes of their careers will return to near-prime production. For me, that's unlikely enough to consider as slim odds.

I guess I don't know how much clearer I can be on my opinion of the White Sox then I've been in this thread then I've already been. I think they're better than most people think apparently. If things go their way, they could have a good season. That doesn't mean that I think they're a great team, ect..ect..it simply means I think they're better than apparently most people on here do.

 

Ok, let's not act like Dye, Thome and Konerko are all these old washed up players just yet.

Thome hit 35 HR's with a .410 OBP last season. I don't think it's unreasonable that he has a good season.

Konerko is 32 years old. A bit early to put him on the "downslope" of his career just yet.

Dye's 34 and one reason removed from an MVP caliber season.

 

So yes, I find it "reasonable" that they could have good seasons.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, let's not act like Dye, Thome and Konerko are all these old washed up players just yet.
Thome hit 35 HR's with a .410 OBP last season. I don't think it's unreasonable that he has a good season.
Konerko is 32 years old. A bit early to put him on the "downslope" of his career just yet.
Dye's 34 and one reason removed from an MVP caliber season.

So yes, I find it "reasonable" that they could have good seasons

Alright, 32 to me is just about the youngest I'd go to start calling a player on the downslope - but I think it's true. Konerko isn't getting better at this point, and is likely to get worse - if only gradually. I listed the AB totals as a way to point out that they've been healthy, and haven't been good. I especially feel they're getting the max out of Thome at this point in his career.

No one's acting like anyone's washed up - it's just unlikely that, a year older, these guys are going to be able to do much better than 2007, a year that saw 72 wins.

[brewers4eric]

I was recalling how dominant Dotel was when he was setting up for Billy Wagner in Houston. I took my future wife to a game against Houston in September of 2001. Dotel pitched a couple of innings that left most of our strikeout prone lineup shaking their heads in the dugout. They pulled him for a pinch hitter and Richie Sexson hit the first offering from Mike Jackson into the left field seats.

 

Good memories which precluded a 2002 season which has been since erased from my mind. Dotel never really regained the dominance that he flashed in 2001. It seems like the White Sox had as many problems with their bullpen as the Brewers last year, maybe Dotel will regain some of his stuff and stay healthy.