Stolen Base Potential

[Prince James]

While I agree that speed on the basepaths can change a game in the right situations, I also believe that there are a few times in a season when over-aggressiveness can cost the team a few runs a maybe even a few games. When I look at the Brewers, I do not see many "sure thing" base stealers (Braun, Gwynn, or Hart maybe?), and some of the comments from the Brewers about increased SB's this year are beginning to worry me. Do we really need to steal more bases this year to put us over the hump? With our strong hitting lineup, I would hope that the Brewers do not attempt more SB than the average MLB team. I think more SB attempt would increase chances for injuries as well as kill some potential rallies. The only positive of stealing 2B in my mind is that it would reduce what I perceived as an insanely high number of sacrifice bunt attempts last year (correct me if I am wrong). Any stats people have would be nice regarding this.

 

I really enjoy watching a speedy team play baseball, but this team does not seem to need to do that more than any other. In the right situations, they should go ahead and try for the SB, but don't force the issue if it isn't working. The hit and run option would far better suit this team in my mind. Is there any stat that proves that a high-SB team has a better chance of winning that a team that is on the lower end of the SB spectrum?

 

I am getting so excited about our team this year with the off-season moves (or non-moves). I am pretty certain we will do well this year even if Ned insists on trying to get a SB after every single. However, I just wanted to know if I should prep myself to expect some more frustration in 08 with the whole baserunning thing.

[1992casey]

When I look at the Brewers, I do not see many "sure thing" base stealers (Braun, Gwynn, or Hart maybe?)

Without looking, I'd say the "surest things" are Weeks and Hart.

 

I'm not sure if we need to steal more or not, but it's certain that we shouldn't be padding our caught stealing totals to do it.

[Prince James]

Yeah, maybe Weeks could be put in that category. However, I am not sure how I would feel about that with the hand issues he has had over the past 2 years. To me, it seems like sliding head first into 2B can put a lot of stress on the hand.

[pitchleague]

the only thing with trying to be a hit-and-run team is your hitters need to make contact. Many have said in other threads that this team is destined to be among the league leaders in strikeouts so becoming a hit-and-run team is asking for a lot of strike 'em out throw 'em out double plays.

 

That said, Weeks and Hart should easily be the top threats (assuming health) and Gwynn, too (assuming playing time). I would be surprised to see 30 combined stolen bases from the rest of the team.

[Ennder]

I would be surprised to see 30 combined stolen bases from the rest of the team.

 

Cameron and Braun should combine for 30 SB or very close to that by themselves. You have to imagine a few others get 2 or 3 each including Kendall. I think we see a SB from one of the pitchers this year too!

[Prince James]

I would be surprised to see 30 combined stolen bases from the rest of the team.

That is what I would prefer, but I thought I heard some comments on Cameron potentially being a 20 SB guy. That, combined with what I saw last year from this team, I would assume that number is going to be much higher. I think the Brewers will try many SB with Braun and Cameron, with a few from Hall as well (but hopefully only a few).

[dadofandrew]

I doubt if most of the team will run much, and that's fine with me. Or, you could look at it and say they should score plenty of runs, so maybe they will hit and run more with the lead. Regardless, it makes little difference, as those SB's will be right around the break-even mark.

[rluzinski]

Regardless, it makes little difference, as those SB's will be right around the break-even mark.

 

If Yost is calling a bunch of steals from their bench, they may not be. Let's just hope that Yost isn't going to try and force opportunies and it will be fine.

[Prince James]

Yeah, maybe the Brady Clark SB experiment is still fresh in my mind. I am just suprised that more people aren't as worried about this.

[Ennder]

Well they aren't going to send Fielder, Hardy or Gross a ton. Braun, Weeks, Cameron, Gwynn and Hart are all pretty good base stealers so it is hard to worry about them. So the real worry comes in the form of Kendall and Hall. Both have stolen double digit bases in the past but neither are very good base stealers so you don't really want to be sending them.

 

If Hall and Kendall start to steal a lot I'll start to get worried, until then we actually just happen to have a faster than average team so I'd expect more SB than an average team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, maybe Weeks could be put in that category.

 

Weeks's career SB/A is 59/68. That's an elite rate (86.8%). I hear ya on the concern about his wrist, though.

 

EDIT: I think, given full seasons, both Rickie & Corey will get to or surpass 30 SB. Braun & Cameron should both pass 20, but Cam may not get there without those first 25 games.

[brewers4eric]

The 2008 Milwaukee Brewers are built for the 3 run bomb. They probably won't attempt many steals unless its the middle of September and they need one run, and Mel Stocker is sitting at the end of the bench after another promotion from AA.

 

The lineup is a stark contrast from what we had back in 1992. We aren't depending on guys like Darryl Hamilton, Kevin Seitzer, and Scott Fletcher for rbis. Greg Vaughn was the only power threat in those days, but now we've got power from every position in the lineup, outside of catcher. Swing for the fences, the only running that we'll be doing is from home to first on those rare occasions when Fielder and Braun aren't sure that the ball is going over the fence.

[DrWood]

The 2008 Milwaukee Brewers are built for the 3 run bomb.

Actually, no they aren't. Their OBP isn't high enough. Maybe built for the 1.5 run HR? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Pitching, defense, and the 3 run HR, the Earl Weaver prescription for winning games. I like it, but the brewers aren't set up to be elite in any of those categories.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Definitely not true about our OBP. Major boosts across the board.

 

the only running that we'll be doing is from home to first on those rare occasions when Fielder and Braun aren't sure that the ball is going over the fence.

 

I understand you're probably going with hyperbole here, but given that there will be hundreds and hundreds of PA where HR aren't hit, and Fielder & Braun aren't batting... there's plenty of time to steal bases.

 

If Yost is calling a bunch of steals from their bench, they may not be. Let's just hope that Yost isn't going to try and force opportunies and it will be fine.

 

This is my worry, given how forward Ned was in talking about it in the chat. Something to the effect of "I like to run on anybody..." - Ned calling the SBs would leave me very uncomfortable. Hopefully what he meant was, 'we have several good basestealers, and we're going to do our homework on opposing batteries times from the pitcher's mound to 2B.'

[JohnBriggs12]

That Yost is now contemplating batting Braun behind Fielder in order to allow a few more SB for Braun is ludicrous. We know just from that comment that Yost hasn't gotten any smarter over the offseason.

 

The splits tell it all: With Braun 3rd and Fielder 4th, they hit .332/.379/.643 and .304/.424/.677 respectively.

 

The other way around it was completely different: .227/.277/.500 for Braun, and .262/.345/.524 for Fielder.

 

Why even think about messing with that? Sure Braun can run, but first and foremost, he's a slugger and he benefits big time batting in front of Fielder. Fielder also benefits having Braun, a higher on base guy than any of the candidates for the 2 hole, batting in front of him. Having a runner on first, opens up the right side of the infield.

 

This is team that is built to hit around 225 HR. SB will come depending on situations because they do have some guys who can run. But to focus on it as some big need misses the point.

[Ennder]

The splits tell it all: With Braun 3rd and Fielder 4th, they hit .332/.379/.643 and .304/.424/.677 respectively.

 

The other way around it was completely different: .227/.277/.500 for Braun, and .262/.345/.524 for Fielder.

 

That is in like a 12 game sample of games, hardly a convincing reason to expect it to fail. I don't like swapping them to let Braun steal but I understand swapping them to better make use of Fielder's left handed bat against RH pitching. Braun and Hart are the only other guys who can hit righties well in the lineup so you would want them after your best guy.

[sbrylski]

Actually, no they aren't. Their OBP isn't high enough. Maybe built for the 1.5 run HR?

 

That's still above the average value of a HR, 1.4 runs. So we are most likely built for the 1.3 run HR.

 

As for base stealing, its nice to see that we will try to make the most of the time we actually do get on base. Unfortunately, what appears to help doesn't always actually help, so I'll guess there will be little difference provided Yost doesn't have everyone running all the time. I wouldn't mind watching Hart steal home plate this season though, that would be exciting...

[Ennder]

Also to be fair I expect our team to be league average in OBP this year. It still isn't a team strength but we cut out a lot of dead weight last year and replaced it with average to slightly above average OBP. I also expect Hardy and Hall to improve on last years OBP.

[rluzinski]

That is in like a 12 game sample of games, hardly a convincing reason to expect it to fail.

 

If that kind of sample is all it took to convince someone of a cause and effect relationship, I could prove anything I wanted to.

[Thurston Fluff]

If Ned's comments meant the team can run more and will have the green light to run when they are sure of making it then I'm all for running more. They have some pretty good base runners on the team now and it makes sense to use all their tools. Running also gives the pitcher and catcher more things to concentrate on and may lead to more fastballs to aid in throwing them out. Thowing to first and second more means more chances for bad throws ect.

I don't want Ned to tell his players run during a particular ab no matter what unless it's late and they need a run to tie type of situation. IIRC Ned has always been more of the green light to try type person vs telling them when to run.

[DrWood]

IIRC Ned has always been more of the green light to try type person vs telling them when to run.

I thought stealing was always directed from the dugout, except for some elite basestealers (think ricky henderson) who always had the green light.

 

[SmartBall]

There is a big difference between a guy who always has a green light and a guy that has a green light in a good situation. Weeks will probably have a green light for the most part, but he will be expected to know whether or not a particular situation is a good one to run on. Yost could also give a baserunner a green light at a particular time, basically saying "if you can get a good jump, go in the next few pitches" without giving the hard steal sign that says "go now, no matter what"

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Cameron, Weeks, & Hart will all have the green light (again) in 2008. I know Weeks & Hart did in 2007 (I specifically recall an FSN WI spot w/Corey talking about basestealing... he mentioned just in the conversation how he 'has the green light to go whenever'), Cam's such a vet... I'd imagine they'll be more careful with Braun & maybe even Gwynn, since he's obviously going to have fewer opportunities.

[Thurston Fluff]

IIRC Ned has always been more of the green light to try type person vs telling them when to run.

I thought stealing was always directed from the dugout, except for some elite basestealers (think ricky henderson) who always had the green light.

 

 

I'm not sure if you mean always as in Ned always directs it or it's almost always done from the dugout on most teams. I believe Ned hardly ever directs a player to steal a base in a particular ab unless it's necessary late in a game. I think he's more or less the type that allows a player to run. Whether he talks to a player after a game and tells him he should have tried to run more or less that game is a differant story.

[danzig6767]

I'm more excited about how well the majority of the team should be able to run from first to home on base hits than i am about stealing bases. For a team with so much power, we are athletic and have a good amount of overall team speed.