Neyer compares Gallardo with Lincecum

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm surprised anyone would put Penny in the top 10, he is a 3.90-4.00 ERA guy of 2005/2006 not the guy who had some good luck last year to suppress his ERA.

 

I think a 16-4, 3.03 year where you start the All Star game is worthy of top 10 consideration in the NL. I don't think luck plays much into allowing just 9 HR in 208 innings.

[Ennder]

I don't think luck plays much into allowing just 9 HR in 208 innings.

 

Statistical evidence disagrees with you.

 

No pitcher in baseball has ever sustained HR rates like he posted in the modern era and he isn't likely to repeat it again. Brian Bannister put it best in his interview.

 

There are two things that make baseball unique from other sports...

 

Secondly, whether you like it or not, baseball is a game of randomness. We play outdoors (mostly) in changing elements and field dimensions, and each pitch results in a series of events that can go in either teams favor. One thing that I have have come to accept is that just because I train hard physically, I practice perfectly, I prepare diligently, and execute a pitch exactly as I wanted, it can still result in a home run. In golf, if you analyze all the variables correctly (lie, distance, slope, wind, etc.) and execute your swing perfectly, it will result in a great shot. Not so for a pitcher or a hitter. A hitter can swing the bat perfectly and it will result in an out more than six times out of ten. Therefore, as a pitcher, I study and play to put the percentages in my favor more than anything because I know that I can't control the outcome in a single game or series of games, but over the course of a season or a career I will be better than average.

 

There is an extreme amount of randomness in baseball and it takes much more than a season to even out in most cases. One of the primary goals of sabermetrics is to isolate which factors are repeatable and which are just sample sizes fluctuations and his stats scream sample size from last year. A betting man puts Penny down for a 3.90-4.25 ERA or so.