Brewers Sign Vargas (1 yr/3.6 Mil)

[hauser42]

3.6 is nothing in these days in baseball.

 

Vargas will be on the team unless someone makes a solid offer to Doug. Starting pitching is the hardest thing to come by in the major leagues even if it is average or below average. Vargas gives this team flexibilty since he can start of come out of the pen.

 

Lets see the reasons to keep Vargas.

1. Brittle Ben Sheets has not thrown over 160 innings each of the last three seasons and he is our ace.

2. Manny Parra has yet to throw over 140 innings since he was drafted.

3. Cappy needs to rebound from a huge let down last year.

4. Bush has to show that he can start going deeper into games and get rid of the big inning after the 5th that kills him.

5. Yo is only entering his second season in the bigs and still could be restricted on his innnings this year.

6. There is no real long man in the pen at this time, unless CV gets put in that spot again. How many IPs can CV handled.

 

Too many people want to run Vargas out of town for no reason at all. Things will shake out at spring training and not before then,

[Gopher74]

I don't have any problem with this.

 

First of all, it seems as if there are some people questioning why we "signed" him for 3.6 million dollars. He made 2.50 last year and was in arbitration. 3.6 is right in line with what he should be making based on last year. You can argue that it's not a good deal based on his value to this team, but it hasn't stopped us from making any other deals, we've gone after everyone that we've realistically wanted, so I don't see it as a deal that's in any way hurting us for this year. Yea, it's never good to spend 3.6 million dollars on your 8th starter, and a guy buried in the pen, but he's got enough value that you'll be able to move him for something.

 

Heck, Philly or Houston could use him(though I'd hope we'd face him when we went out East to Philly).

 

In any event, it was the opinion of many on this board that he was going to make 5 million dollars in arbitration, so 3.6 is a relative bargain.

 

I'd have no problem if he was coming out of the pen. His strand rate through his career has been pretty good(72.4 pct), and as a reliever, he throws 96 as DrWood mentioned, and I've argued before, and he's got a pretty solid slider. I think he could be a far better reliever than a starter.

 

And before everyone goes back to the whip, which absolutely is a huge concern, it's entirely possible that he improves as a starter. I believe he's got the makeup to be a better reliever than starter, and at 3.6, that's not so much that you absolutely have to get rid of him. I think if you move Bush or Cappy you could do just fine to keep him on as your long man.

[Ennder]

Bush has to show that he can start going deeper into games and get rid of the big inning after the 5th that kills him.

 

This statement shows why you shouldn't go by perception and need to look at stats. Bush is above average for average IP per start and most of his problems have been in the 1st inning. He has averaged 6.03 IP per start in his career and averaged 5.91 per start last year. League average is 5.72 and the Brewer average last year was 5.76. Ace type starters usually go about 6.5 on average but marginal guys rarely are much better than 6 per start.

 

You are remembering a couple starts that he blew up in the 6th early in the season last year and to be honest if you go back and watch the games he blew up because of bad defense in two of the games.

[bork]

So by my math, after JJ, Cappy, and Bush get their offers done we should be looking at somewhere between 71-74 million mark. Does that sound right? Looked at the salary page and figured JJ at $400K plus, Bush around $500K and Cappy a bit over $3M.

Cameron isn't on the salary page, that's $5.5 million. Bush and JJ will each probably make $2-$3 million. Cappy will probably be over $4. The payroll will be over $80 million if no changes are made.

[rluzinski]

3. Cappy needs to rebound from a huge let down last year.

 

Vargas's ERA last year was 5.09 to Cappy's 5.10 and Vargas's WHIP was worse. Cappy had the worst season of his career and his ERA was only 14 points higher than Vargas's CAREER ERA. So, if Cappy didn't rebound at all, he'd still be about has good as Vargas.

 

4. Bush has to show that he can start going deeper into games and get rid of the big inning after the 5th that kills him.

Replace "Bush" with "Vargas" and that statement starts mirroring reality.

 

5. Yo is only entering his second season in the bigs and still could be restricted on his innnings this year.

Not according to the people that make those decisions, he isn't.

 

6. There is no real long man in the pen at this time, unless CV gets put in that spot again. How many IPs can CV handled.

What is a "real long man", exactly? A long man is typically just a starting pitcher that isn't good enough or ready to be in the starting rotation. The Brewers have at least two "real long men" (Bush and Parra) beyond Vargas and they are both better than him, IMO.

 

Edited to correct misplaced italicization. - Toby

[Thurston Fluff]

What is a "real long man", exactly? A long man is typically just a starting pitcher that isn't good enough or ready to be in the starting rotation. The Brewers have at least two "real long men" (Bush and Parra) beyond Vargas and they are both better than him, IMO.

 

Parra IMO should and will start out at AAA to get stretched out a bit and eventually become a starter. So he could be taken out of the equation. Bush, to me anyway, has shown himself to be more than someone who isn't good enough to be in the starting rotation. If he ends up as the long man it will be only because the starting rotation is that strong as to push him there.

I don't believe there is all that much excess pitching to warrant not paying Vargas what he got. There will be some injury or poor play along the way in spring or the early season that will make keeping him around look smarter. In a way it's like what Melvin has always done with pitching in that he has a lot of good arms competing for a job. The only differance is instead of doing it with minimum wage guys he's doing it with guys slighly larger salaries. Something that shouldn't surprise or alarm us considering the point this team is at competetively. I'd much rather have established if unspectacular major league players at the end of the roster in the event of injury or incompetence than the ususal string of career minor leaguers or reclaimation projects of the past teams.

[Fatter than Joey]

Too many people want to run Vargas out of town for no reason at all. Things will shake out at spring training and not before then,

 

Vargas could have a crappy spring, and he would still get his $3.6, and be on the Brewers roster. I really doubt the Brewers would eat it. If they had one intention of dropping Vargas they would have done it when they dumped Mench and Wise.

[Ennder]

Bush, to me anyway, has shown himself to be more than someone who isn't good enough to be in the starting rotation

His career 4.48 ERA as a starter with a chunk of that being in the AL probably indicates otherwise. He slots in as a #3 SP with that career line but he isn't good enough to be in the rotation?

 

I actually agree with you, which says a lot about how good our rotation should be this year if the defense improves as much as I think it will. Bush is the #7 SP but would be the #3 or #4 on most teams.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ennder I was trying to say he was good enough to be in most rotations and far more than Russ' definition of a long man was. Obviously I didn't state that very well. If Bush ends up as the long man out of the pen it would be a sign of how good the pitching staff is. Not an indication of the level of pitcher Bush is.

[Ennder]

Btw, keep in mind that we didn't have a choice about paying Vargas at this time. We offered him arbitration a while ago so all this deal was doing is avoiding letting someone else decide how much to pay him.

[Roscoe Chill]

Put it this way...if the Brewers a few years ago traded something of value for a guy similar to Claudio Vargas at a salary similar to $3.6 million in 2008, it would have been a waste of money AND a waste of those valuable resources they traded to get him. And it wouldn't have benefited the team's growth whatsoever.

 

Translation: Let's stop talking about how some bad team is going to swoop down and trade for Vargas because he is better than three guys in their rotation, because that may be true, but Claudio Vargas isn't going to help those teams much is he?

 

You can talk about how much 'value' he has and use numbers and league averages to make your argument. But he's not good enough to warrant a bad team making a move for him, and he's not good enough for a good team to go after him, the good teams will go after someone better, and the bad teams will just pitch their youngsters, and not spend money that isn't going to get them anywhere near contending. Like Al says, going for that 68th win....so Vargas' value is overrated around these parts I'm afraid when you take that in to consideration.

[rluzinski]

As Ndog alluded to, the Brewers need to find another team that thinks Vargas is worth MORE than $3.6 mil if they want anything in return. I'm not too optimistic.

[Fatter than Joey]

Good post NDogg...

 

I think there may be 2 reasons we held on to Vargas.

 

1.) Various Insurances -- There are still a lot of question marks on this pitching staff (to varying degrees) -- You have guys like Sheets that seem to hover around the DL, and some young arms like Yo and Villy, -- while having bright futures could experience some growing pains in 2008, -- and guys like Cappy/Bush who could be traded.

 

2.) Also, I think in someway, DM doesn't want to jettison both players he acquired in the Davis trade in the same offseason, one year after acquiring them.

 

Unless something catastrophic happens to a team's pitching staff -- I don't see Vargas having tons of value.

[gregmag]

You can talk about how much 'value' he has and use numbers and league averages to make your argument. But he's not good enough to warrant a bad team making a move for him, and he's not good enough for a good team to go after him, the good teams will go after someone better, and the bad teams will just pitch their youngsters, and not spend money that isn't going to get them anywhere near contending. Like Al says, going for that 68th win....so Vargas' value is overrated around these parts I'm afraid when you take that in to consideration.

 

I disagree with one key piece of this statement. The Wild Card format means that most teams consider themselves contenders. A lot of teams don't have a reliable fifth starter, and $3.6 million seems like a fair price for a reliable fifth starter. Then you throw in the fact that pitchers get hurt all the time . . . I think we'll find some overlap between the group of (actual or delusional) "good teams" and the group of teams who could use a fifth starter at $3.6 million.

 

Greg.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think everyone can agree that barring injury, Gallardo and Villanueva will be on the opening day roster.

 

I also think everyone can agree they will not break camp with more than 12 pitchers.

 

That means one of the following 11 guys will either have to be on the DL, traded, or released:

 

Bush

Capuano

Gagne

Mota

Riske

Sheets

Shouse

Suppan

Torres

Turnbow

Vargas

 

Now barring a trip to the DL, Gagne, Riske, Sheets and Suppan are complete locks.

 

The rest of that group are all either signed (or will likely be signed in the case of Bush) to deals of between $2 million (Shouse) and $3.75 million (Capuano). Most are over $3 million. Barring injury, one of those guys has to go. If any of Parra, McLung, Choate or Stetter step up and earn a spot this spring, more than one of those guys has to go.

 

Melvin has put himself in a bit of a bind and teams know it.

[And That]

Melvin has put himself in a bit of a bind and teams know it.

Melvin has put himself in a bind by maybe having to trade Claudio Vargas or Dave Bush if no one gets injured between now and the end of March? What are these other teams that know it saying to themselves, "My! They've screwed themselves with TOO MUCH PITCHING!!!!! Bwhahaha!"? I can just picture the GM of the Rays cackling to himself somewhere in the bowels of wherever over Melvin's Folly.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

It might be smarter and easier to deal a bullpen arm or two than deal Vargas or Capuano.

 

I'd shop Shouse and Turnbow. Shouse is a sell high and Turnbow a sell low so the kind of balance each other. Shouse is replaceable by any of 3 guys, Capuano, Stetter or Choate. Turnbow doesn't really have a role. His 8th inning slot has been taken by Riske. The 7th inning is split between Mota and Torres. He can't pitch multiple innings. Vargas on the other hand can.

[Ennder]

Dave Bush and Chris Capuano both have options left too, so whomever loses out on the 5th spot could go down to the minors if they absolutely had to. The team can probably carry an extra pitcher early in the year to buy more time to make a deal if one doesn't happen before the season start. Most likely what will happen is someone will have an injury or give up on a prospect in spring training and pull the trigger on a deal.

[twobrewers]

As Ndog alluded to, the Brewers need to find another team that thinks Vargas is worth MORE than $3.6 mil if they want anything in return. I'm not too optimistic.

I've been wrong before (But only once or twice), but I have a feeling Vargas is going to remain a Brewer this year and Bush might be on his way out of town.

 

Neither Bush nor Vargas is likely to have a big role with the Brewers this year. (Assuming one is traded and the other is slated for long relief - I think being LH, Capuano has the 5th spot locked down) Since the long relief role is not the most important role on the team, I think you use Vargas in that role and trade Bush.

Plain and simple, Bush has more value. He is younger. He will make make less. And he is better. He should net a pretty good prospect in return.

 

Vargas moves to long-relief. Parra goes to AAA until needed.

[JohnBriggs12]

"plain and simple, Bush has more value...he should net a pretty good prospect in return."

 

Exactly why your comment that "Capuano has the 5th spot locked down" is completely false. He has nothing locked down. Nobody has.

 

The fact that he has support from some regular posters on a fan board, doesn't give him any inside edge.

[twobrewers]

Exactly why your comment that "Capuano has the 5th spot locked down" is completely false.

Obviously, my stating that Capuano has the 5th spot locked down is a bit of an overstatement. But he certainly has the inside track. If I had to give odds on who our 5th starter was going to be I would say...

Capuano - 50%

Bush - 30%

Parra - 15%

Vargas - 5%

 

The fact that he has support from some regular posters on a fan board, doesn't give him any inside edge.

I am not basing my assessment at all on what anyone at Brewerfan.net says/posts. Capuano has an inside edge because he is LF. And I've read one or two scouts (I think it was Callis or K. Law) who believe that his injury might have played a role in his struggles last year. (I am aware that it is his non-throwing shoulder. But trying throwing a fastball at 90 MPH with a bum left shoulder and tell me if it hurts at all.)

 

If the Brewers believe that both Capuano and Bush will have similar results this year - you would likely trade the one with the most value. (Since it is possible that neither are needed in 2009 with Manny Parra taking a full-time slot)

[bork]

Since it is possible that neither are needed in 2009 with Manny Parra taking a full-time slot

I'm guessing Sheets is gone next year, with Parra taking his spot.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think JB's point on 'Melvin being in a bind' is that teams know that Doug has this $3.6 mil. contract on his hands that he really should ditch. It's that we have too many guys for too few spots, and that one seemingly 'has' to go. So it's not that teams are laughing, but just that the situation lowers what the Crew could/will get in return.

 

I still think that 'Vargas + Turnbow + Brewers eating a portion of the contracts' can land us a very solid RP.

[Gopher74]

I also think everyone can agree they will not break camp with more than 12 pitchers.

 

 

Melvin has put himself in a bind and a lot of teams know it.

1-No, I don't think we can all agree that they will not break camp with more than 12 pitchers. Since this point has been argued, I'm curious why you think that everyone agree's with this, but in any event, if it means you hold onto a solid starting pitcher in the short term, I don't think they'd have that much trouble doing it.

 

Maybe Gwynn doesn't make the team right off the bat and gets called up when the situation does get handled. Whoever it is, holding onto a starter is a better option than moving him for nothing.

 

2-What "bind" is he in? Having too many viable starting pitchers? I hope that we're always in such a "bind".

 

Starting pitchers have more value in season.

Position players have more value in the off-season.

 

It's a better option to trade an excess of starting pitching during the season rather than in the off-season.

And it's entirely possible that someone gets hurt and the Brewers find themselves without one of their starters making Bush/Cappy and Vargas that much more valuable for them.

Either way, if it's a matter of simply wanting to get rid of Vargas, we'll find a team that will just take him from us, and then we're not any worse off than we were before this "bind".

 

I think it's kinda silly people are "worried" about this. I guess it's a good sign that this is about the biggest worry we have going into the season. We have too many good pitchers, or viable starting options.

[endaround]

My problem is not going to arby with Vargas. Then you'd have the option of cutting him at a prorated salary. I think MLB teams just don't value that option as highly as they should.