Best 3-4-5 in baseball?

[Foofty]

discussion/thoughts?

The Brewers have a really powerfull 3/4/5 in Braun/Fielder/Hart, I would put it prob top 3 in NL and prob top 6 in MLB.

[Gopher74]

discussion/thoughts?

 

The Brewers have a really powerfull 3/4/5 in Braun/Fielder/Hart, I would put it prob top 3 in NL and prob top 6 in MLB.

Teixeira/Jones/McCann or Francouer is a dang good one.

I like Tejada/Berkman/Lee if that's the order they do it.

Aram/Soriano/Lee could be a great one if the Cubs could figure out that Soriano wasn't a viable option as a leadoff hitter with his sparkling .330 OBP, and his 40 HR's, but they don't.

Utley/Howard and Burrell is a fantastic middle of the order lineup.

 

I think I'd go with

1-Colorado Rockies-Helton(L)/Holliday®/Hawpe(L)

2-Milwaukee Brewers-Braun®/Prince(L)/Hart®

3-Atlanta Braves-Teixeira(S)/Chipper(S)/Francouer®

[Ennder]

Really comes down to that #3 guy. Teix/Chipper are outstanding but McCann doesnt' play every day and Francouer's OBP is way too low (he comes in at #100 in RC/27 so not in same league as others mentioned).

 

 

 

My money is on Utley/Howard/Burrell or Helton/Holliday/Hawpe. All six were top 25 in baseball in RC/27 last year and no other team has something like that unless you want to count Ordonez (not buying a repeat)/Cabrera/Granderson (leads off)

[crewcrazy]

I also liked Cincinnati's combo of Griffey-Phillips-Dunn last year, but who knows how Dusty will order that lineup. He could bat Dunn 6th for all we know. I kind of like San Diego's Kouzmanoff-Gonzalez-Greene combo, although Petco saps most of the power from that trio. The AL is filled with some great 3-4-5 combos, though...Abreu-Rodriguez-Matsui, Ortiz-Ramirez-Drew or Youkilis, Martinez-Hafner-Peralta, Thome-Konerko-Swisher now in Chicago, Cabrera-Ordonez-Guillen in Detroit, etc.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ortiz-Ramirez-Drew or Youkilis

 

by the end of 2007, iirc it went Youkilis-Ortiz-Ramirez. Wasn't Drew hitting as low as 7th?

 

Cabrera-Ordonez-Guillen

 

Holy cow - how the offseason has whizzed by. I'd totally forgotten about that trade! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif But the 3-4-5 there has to be Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield. Not to mention that the lineup starts with arguably the best leadoff man (& CF) in MLB with Granderson... oh yea, and Renteria likely to hit #2... or Guillen. Sheesh what an offseason for Detroit (at least in terms of 'win now'). That Tigers lineup is killer.

[Gopher74]

Really comes down to that #3 guy. Teix/Chipper are outstanding but McCann doesnt' play every day and Francouer's OBP is way too low (he comes in at #100 in RC/27 so not in same league as others mentioned).

 

 

 

My money is on Utley/Howard/Burrell or Helton/Holliday/Hawpe. All six were top 25 in baseball in RC/27 last year and no other team has something like that unless you want to count Ordonez (not buying a repeat)/Cabrera/Granderson (leads off)

So you'd rank those teams ahead of the Brewers? I can buy the Rox obviously as they were my number 1 team, but not the Phils. Utlery vs Braun, I think that's an edge for the Brewers when you take away the Sandbox Utley gets to play in. I think Prince has an edge over Howard, and Hart and Burrell could go either way, but I'll take Burrell if he can put up 30 HR's and a .400 OBP again.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Utlery vs Braun, I think that's an edge for the Brewers when you take away the Sandbox Utley gets to play in.

Although it probably accounts for some, I don't think Citizens Bank can answer for all of the BB rate differential, though (in favor - to this point - of Utley). Braun imho is going to BB a significant amount more in 2008 (a la Fielder 2006-->2007), so that gap will likely close some, if not all.

[And That]

Agreed, TLB, about Braun walking more next year. It wouldn't surprise me to see his AVG drop 30-35 points while only seeing his OBP drop 5-10 points. Hopefully neither happen obviously.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's kinda crazy to me - all the forecasts (inherently limited/slanted, I know) have him keeping his K total about the same (as in, lowering his K rate slightly), with his BBs rising a bit (again, rate going up), along with him keeping his BABIP up over .320. I guess I can see a BABIP around .320, but I think it's much more likely that stat drops, while his BB/K improves more than is being projected.

 

For example, Bill James has him at a .341 BABIP & Marcels a .355 (that one makes more sense as to why it's so high, though). I see no reason to expect Ryan to meet with such good luck (.367 BABIP) again next year.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about the Mets? Wright/Beltran/Delgado? I know Delgado had a serious OFF year, but two MVP candidates with a big-time power source in Delgado, who also was putting up MVP-type numbers in the AL a few years ago, has to account for something.

 

 

 

Braun v. Wright. Wright with a slight edge.

 

Fielder v. Beltran. Fielder, with a clear edge.

 

Hart v. Delgado. This could swing either way.

 

 

 

For fun. Switch Fielder and Hart in the comp and you get a clear edge for Fielder over Delgado and a slight advantage for the Mets over Hart.

 

 

 

Also...

 

Wright v. Utley. Wright, if only for health.

 

Beltran v. Burrell. I know it's comparing four v. 5 hitter but for comp.'s sake, it makes sense. And while I've always been enamored with Burrell's high OBP rate, Beltran would have to get the edge,

 

Delgado v. Howard. I would honestly give the Phils but a slight edge in this department. Then again, and it's blatantly obvious, I've always been high on Delgado. And Mota, but that's for another thread. :-)

[ELCABALLO45]

Not the best but 2 years ago it had to be..

 

 

 

Konerko.Thome.Dye

[crewcrazy]

Ortiz-Ramirez-Drew or Youkilis

 

by the end of 2007, iirc it went Youkilis-Ortiz-Ramirez. Wasn't Drew hitting as low as 7th?

 

Cabrera-Ordonez-Guillen

 

Holy cow - how the offseason has whizzed by. I'd totally forgotten about that trade! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/embarassed.gif But the 3-4-5 there has to be Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield. Not to mention that the lineup starts with arguably the best leadoff man (& CF) in MLB with Granderson... oh yea, and Renteria likely to hit #2... or Guillen. Sheesh what an offseason for Detroit (at least in terms of 'win now'). That Tigers lineup is killer.

Yeah, the Red Sox dropped Drew very low towards the end of the year. I just went off the 2007 BoSox's b-ref page, using their "Batting Orders" link. As for Detroit, Leyland has a ton of options as to how he wants to order that lineup...I don't think he could really go wrong as long as he keeps Granderson at the top. That lineup will give Boston and Philly a run for their money in the runs scored race.

[BuckyTuba]

This year I like:

DET: Cabrera-Ordonez-Sheffield (best 1-2: miggy-maggy!)

MIL: Braun-Fielder-Hart

NYY: Cano-ARod-Posada (ARod just makes everyone around him better)

 

Colorado has the best top to bottom lineup in baseball in my opinion. You could interchange 5 guys into the 3-4-5 and be immensely successful (helton, hawpe, holliday, atkins, tulowitzki)

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't mean this in a means-spirited way, but that probably isn't NYY's 3-4-5 in 2008. Abreu - A-Rod - Giambi/Posada/Matsui is my guess.

 

Braun v. Wright. Wright with a slight edge.

Fielder v. Beltran. Fielder, with a clear edge.

Hart v. Delgado. This could swing either way.

 

 

Honestly, if there's one area where Braun holds an edge over Wright, it's offense (obviously not D). I think I objectively score that one a 'push' - with the overall edge to the Crew, since I think you've got the other two right (though, to be fair, it's probably more likely to bet on the younger Hart improving more than Delgado returning to his former self during his age 36 season). That's all really genuinely exciting to me!

[Gopher74]

Utlery vs Braun, I think that's an edge for the Brewers when you take away the Sandbox Utley gets to play in.

Although it probably accounts for some, I don't think Citizens Bank can answer for all of the BB rate differential, though (in favor - to this point - of Utley). Braun imho is going to BB a significant amount more in 2008 (a la Fielder 2006-->2007), so that gap will likely close some, if not all.

 

Well, I didn't say anything about his walk rate. I know that's very important, however I think Braun's power put him over the edge.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok -- as you said, it's extremely relevant. SLG certainly can't outweigh OBP unless there's a gigantic difference, and with those two guys - as of now - there isn't a big enough gap imo for Braun to overtake Utley. As I said, though, I fully expect Braun's BB rate to improve at least enough to overtake Utley overall (in terms of offense).

[himeji jo]

Surprised no one has mentioned Mauer, Morneau, Young...if that is what their order will be, maybe Cuddyer is in there somewhere. I'll still take the crew's three, right behind Detroit's.

[SmartBall]

I love the Brewers middle, but its tough to put them into an elite category while their players are so young. I love Hart and Braun and think they will both be incredible players but until they have a few more years under their belts I'll take Cabrera, Ordonez, Sheffield

[nikegolf6]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

For example, Bill James has him at a .341 BABIP & Marcels a .355 (that one makes more sense as to why it's so high, though). I see no reason to expect Ryan to meet with such good luck (.367 BABIP) again next year.

 

Miguel Cabrera's BABIP over the last 3 seasons is ~.364. I say roughly, because I just crudely added them up (.355, .378, .358) and divided by three but he played full seasons so it's close enough. So it's within the realm of possibility that could sustain ~.360+ BABIP

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure, it could happen, but my point is simply that it's much more likely not to. His BABIP at Nashville (granted, only 120 AB) was .306 last year, with a .440 mark v. LHP. That's the kind of number (.440) that's completely an outlier, and it obviously skewed the overall mark quite a bit.

As I said, I could see Ryan maintaining a BABIP around .320 or so, but I'd even want to dig into Cabrera's extremely high number - though he's been around enough where it doesn't look fluky. Fwiw, I'll guess .315 for Ryan in 2008.

EDIT: I wonder if Cabrera's high BABIP has anything to do with his seemingly high (& sustained) LD%. Has there been any correlation shown between LD% & high BABIP? That makes sense to me, just on a quick 'hmm..'

[Gopher74]

Ok -- as you said, it's extremely relevant. SLG certainly can't outweigh OBP unless there's a gigantic difference, and with those two guys - as of now - there isn't a big enough gap imo for Braun to overtake Utley. As I said, though, I fully expect Braun's BB rate to improve at least enough to overtake Utley overall (in terms of offense).

Well, it was last year. And if you're argument is that you think his SLG will drop, well you just said that his OBP will rise, so I'd think that would negate any difference either way.

 

So I guess if you're using his OBP from last year, you have to use his SLG from last year which was about 70 some points higher. I think that makes up for the 40 point difference in OBP.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Except that OBP is worth more, so it isn't equal.

[Gopher74]

Except that OBP is worth more, so it isn't equal.

Yea, but it's not a 40 point difference in each, it's 40 pct in OBP and 70 points in SLG.

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess that's just me being nit-picky, then. It's not quite a 70 point difference in SLG, and works out - very slightly - in Utley's favor unless I've made a basic error.

 

But I don't expect Braun's OBP to rise enough to even out with what will surely be a drop in his SLG. I think he'll walk north of 45 times in 2008, maybe even over 50. I don't think that's going to be a big enough boost to offset the fact that his SLG will likely fall by 40-ish points, and could fall by as many as 100 (not likely, but could happen).

[Robideaux]

Not to nitpick, but when evaluating something like this, its probably not the best strategy to simply compare 3 v 3, 4 v 4, and 5 v 5. That strategy will really only tell you something meaningful if all three players on one team are better. For example :

 

 

 

hypothetical (for sake of argument):

 

 

 

2005 Cardinals v 2007 Brewers

 

Pujols (1039 OPS)v. Fielder (1013 OPS)

 

Edmonds (918 OPS) v. Hart (892 OPS)

 

Mabry (702 OPS) v Braun (1004 OPS)

 

 

 

You could argue that the Cards have a tiny edge with Pujols and with Edmonds, but Braun destroys Mabry. By one on one comparison Cardinals win 2, Brewers win 1, but it is obvious if taken as a whole that the Brewers have the edge.