The Brewers didn't address their real needs

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Thanks for expanding on my thought here, LouisEly. Great numbers work!

 

"I will bet that in that scenario that the .290 hitter, all things equal, will have the higher SLG and produce more runs. If those players both get 550 ABs, the .290 hitter will get 160 hits and the .250 hitter will get 138 hits, so player A will have 22 more hits than player A. Chances are those 22 hits will not be all singles, thus more bases, and chances are that any runners on base will advance more bases, and thus produce more runs. Player B will walk/HBP more, but will only get on base six more times over 600 PAs than Player A and will only advance runners one base if at all - if first base is open then the runners won't advance at all, unlike if a player A got a hit. So I think there is some evidence that a much higher BA with a slightly smaller OBP will be more productive than a much lower BA guy with a slightly higher OBP."

 

The Brewers may have had some terrific HR totals last year, but there were too many times when we'd leave runners on. A guy who puts the ball in play, and drives in those runners with a single or a double, a few more times over the course of a season, could snatch that extra win or 2, back for us.

 

My other point, however, is that, if we have this righty-leaning offense, then the Brewers won't be seeing that usual 70/30 or so split in facing RHPs/LHPs. It'll probably be more like 80/20 or 85/15. And if we're seeing decidedly RHP-focused opponents, our hitters' production will drop in a profound way. It's nice to see Hardy with that .297 BA vs. LHPs , and Weeks with that .825 OPS vs. LHPs, but if they only get to face LHPs 10-15% of the time, because opponents are adjusting to us, then we're going to see a LOT more of Hardy with that .691 OPS, and the .801 Hart, instead of the .933 Hart.

 

Why would other teams want to send a lefty out there, if they can help it, when righties are much more plentiful, and you know that you can lop off 40, 50, 100, 200+ OPS points off of a JJ Hardy, a Rickie Weeks, a Corey Hart, a Bill Hall...by just simply sending an RHP out there.

 

It's all about batting order balance. Just enough lefties, just enough OBP types, just enough sluggers, just enough speed guys...

 

Think of it this way: If the Cubs got 7 righty hitters in their lineup, wouldn't we be lobbying Ned to send our RHPs against them? I would.

[Ennder]

Nice post Gopher and just to run some numbers to add to it. If we assume that Kendall, Gross and Cameron fill in a .330 OBP for the PA's we lose which is extremely conservative we are up to a .333 team OBP which is still only 10th in the NL but that is assuming no growth anywhere else. That is assuming Hall has his career low again, Hardy doesn't grow, Weeks doesn't stay healthy, Fielder doesn't BB more which he likely will, Braun won't improve his plate patience etc. League average OBP was .334 last year so we likely will be average to above average with these changes and could even break into the top 5 (would only take a .337 OBP).

 

The Brewers may have had some terrific HR totals last year, but there were too many times when we'd leave runners on. A guy who puts the ball in play, and drives in those runners with a single or a double, a few more times over the course of a season, could snatch that extra win or 2, back for us

 

It doesn't work that way though as I posted earlier. If you are trying to say that getting more singles while keeping everything else constant is good then yeah I agree completely. But when you raise your AVG but keep your OBP and SLG the same you won't drive in more runs. You'll get more singles which may score more runs, but you'll get fewer extra base hits that are more likely to score runs.

 

So yeah raising the team AVG is a good thing since it raises the OBP and the SLG but a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP and an .800 OPS is going to be every bit as valuable as a .300 hitter with a .350 OBP and an .800 OPS, there will be no difference in the long run. In the short run the difference will be random, sometimes the extra base hit from the .250 hitter will drive in a run the single wouldn't have, sometimes the single will drive in a run the extra BB wouldn't have.

 

The only difference at all will come from K's with runners on 3rd etc which is a valid argument but one that doesnt' really result in many runs each season (752 of 12208 runs scored via SF last season, it is a very small percentage regardless of K's).

[kramnoj]

"Why would other teams want to send a lefty out there, if they can help it"

 

 

 

How often do you think teams will actually adjust their rotation? It was big news when Pinella was contemplating changing the rotation in September during the drive. It was big news because it was a rare event. Being a cynic is okay, but if you're just making up stuff to worry about, I don't know what that gets you.

[homer]

I'm not worried about people shuffling their rotations. That won't happen. I'm more concerned with how Ned will deal with righties out of the pen. Ned usually loses those chess matches and he's more shorthanded than usual.

[Ennder]

You might see a marginal righty instead of a marginal lefty here and there but I bet it is not a major part of the season. I'd expect the Cubs to be the team that would go out of their way to shift things around and they only have 1 good righty anyway and they would be shifting to get Zambrano to face us regardless.

 

Even in the bullpen it probably won't matter much since most lefties are only in to get 1 or 2 outs anyway. It certainly would be nice to have another lefty or two in the lineup, I don't disagree at all. But I think the weakness is more that our OBP and SLG will suffer because of it rather than other teams will be able to adjust to our lineup on a regular basis.

[Tbadder]

Gopher

 

 

 

I don't like our starters in terms of production. I like them very much in terms of potential.

 

 

 

Sheets: he maybe our ace but he's as unreliable as they come health-wise. Team tanked when he went down last year. I would be more surprised if he didn't get hurt than if he did.

 

Yovanni: if they're serious about his future he better be on an innings count this year again, or we may burn him to the ground. There are too many young pitchers to mention whose careers were derailed by being overpitched early on.

 

Villy: Granted he looks better as a starter, but lets see him give us 200 IP. Has he ever come close to this? Does he get tired-arm syndrome like last year again?

 

Suppan: pitches well in big games, eats innings, but is only going to hover around the .500 mark

 

Cappy: totally don't believe in him in any way shape or form

 

Vargas: strikes me as more of a long reliever

 

Bush: my fav for #5, but after injuries take theie toll can we imagine him as a #3? I can't.

 

 

 

I think our starters are solid given the depth and potential. Solid doesn't win you any thing. You've got to be good. You've got to be healthy. You've got to be a proven producer--the Crew lacks these pitchers.

 

 

 

And that's why, given our offense, and the relative weakness of our division, I'd mortgage our future for Bedard.

 

 

 

totally respectfully

 

D

[Fatter than Joey]

You can't look at that (bullpen) as anything but a huge upgrade and at a much cheaper price.

 

I disagree.

 

1.) I fail to see how Gagne+Torres+Riske+Mota is a "huge upgrade" over Cordero+Linebrink+Villy+Wise, they may be better, they may be worse.

 

2.) As far as "price" -- there are 2 "prices" I guess, short-term, and long-term. I don't think that there is any question that the 2008 BP is costing us more $$ than the 2007 BP, so I will assume that the "price" you are offering to is more of a long-term cost. Now, the nice thing about the contracts of Gagne, Mota Shouse and Torres, is that they are one-year commitments for the Brewers, so if they suck, we are not tied down with a bunch of albatross contracts. The flip-side to that coin, is that if they all leave, DM is going to have to reload at the conclusion of 2008 which a bunch of similar type players -- which is fine with me, the problem is, is that if we find 4 different Eric Gagne's for the next 4 years, each contract will be more expensive, due to inherent rise in players salaries. If Cordero pitches well for the Reds for the next 4 years, that 4th year will be a bargain price for the Reds. In short, I like the fact that one-year contracts/commitments limit our long-term risk, but we shouldn't rush to the conclusion that in 4 years we will have spent less money, or spent the money we did spend wisely.

[DrWood]

2.) As far as "price" -- there are 2 "prices" I guess, short-term, and long-term. I don't think that there is any question that the 2008 BP is costing us more $$ than the 2007 BP, so I will assume that the "price" you are offering to is more of a long-term cost. Now, the nice thing about the contracts of Gagne, Mota Shouse and Torres, is that they are one-year commitments for the Brewers, so if they suck, we are not tied down with a bunch of albatross contracts. The flip-side to that coin, is that if they all leave, DM is going to have to reload at the conclusion of 2008 which a bunch of similar type players -- which is fine with me, the problem is, is that if we find 4 different Eric Gagne's for the next 4 years, each contract will be more expensive, due to inherent rise in players salaries. If Cordero pitches well for the Reds for the next 4 years, that 4th year will be a bargain price for the Reds. In short, I like the fact that one-year contracts/commitments limit our long-term risk, but we shouldn't rush to the conclusion that in 4 years we will have spent less money, or spent the money we did spend wisely.

I assume that eventually the system will provide some relievers from within, and those young guys will be pretty cheap for awhile, at least. The one-year-contract guys are stop-gaps, and that's why the contract length is so ideal.

 

 

[Ennder]

1.) I fail to see how Gagne+Torres+Riske+Mota is a "huge upgrade" over Cordero+Linebrink+Villy+Wise, they may be better, they may be worse.

 

But that isn't what they are an upgrade over, those 4 should throw roughly 250 IP I'd say.

 

Linebrink - 25.1 IP of 3.55 ERA.

Wise - 53.2 IP of 4.19 ERA

Cordero - 63.1 IP of 2.98 ERA

Villy - 96.1 IP of 4.48 ERA

 

So you still have a good 20-30 IP left to account for.

 

Dessens - 15 IP of 6.60 ERA

Capellan - 12 IP of 4.50 ERA

 

But Villy is becoming a starter and so Bush probably slots into his spot replacing a good 60-80 IP more.

 

Balfour - 2.7 IP of 20.25 ERA

King - 6 IP of 6 ERA

Aquino 14 IP of 4.50 ERA

Spurling - 50 IP of 4.68 ERA

 

The bullpen gained a lot of stability, especially in the 6th and 7th innings where we were terrible last season.

[TauPentaRei]

Back to the original title, which - frankly - I could not agree with more...

Bill Hall:

"Right now, I don't even have an infielder's glove, I didn't think I'd need one again... I think every player likes to look out for himself at some point. You want to protect your dignity a little bit."

I'm looking for someone to make me feel good about this juggle job. Yes, I wanted to go "the easy route" this off-season, meaning bring in a Rolen, Crede, Blalock, etc... Yes, I wanted continuity of players so as not to disrupt the clubhouse chemistry. But man, the goal this off-season was to get a third baseman. A great 3B is a pitcher's best friend.

I am less worried about Braun, because if Manny R can play LF then certainly Ryan can.

To quote Def Leopard, will someone please pour some sugar on me?

[DrWood]

The bullpen gained a lot of stability, especially in the 6th and 7th innings where we were terrible last season.

we'll see if mota and torres (and gagne for that matter) provide stability or not. You can't be sure yet.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

I assume that eventually the system will provide some relievers from within, and those young guys will be pretty cheap for awhile, at least. The one-year-contract guys are stop-gaps, and that's why the contract length is so ideal.

 

 

 

Fair enough, but even still that is an assumption. I don't really think that the Brewers have a lot of MLB-ready pitching depth, for the front end of the BP, for 2008 or 2009 - but that remains to be seen, I guess all I am saying that it remains to be seen whether the Brewers will end up spending their money wisely, i.e. which risk turns out to be the better. You certainly could be right though.

[Ennder]

The bullpen gained a lot of stability, especially in the 6th and 7th innings where we were terrible last season.

we'll see if mota and torres (and gagne for that matter) provide stability or not. You can't be sure yet.

If they pitch like they did last season they will.

 

Mota - 4.37 xERA (better than 2 previous seasons)

Torres - 3.82 xERA (better than 2 previous seasons)

Gagne - 3.98 xERA

Riske - 4.39 xERA (long history of beating his xERA's by 0.50 runs because of strand rates, appears to be a skill).

 

These aren't amazing RP's but they are all above league average guys. Add that to Shouse who should be above average and Turnbow who could be above average and I like the bullpen a lot more than last year when we had the spurling, dessens, aquino bunch at the start of the year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bill Hall:

 

"Right now, I don't even have an infielder's glove, I didn't think I'd need one again... I think every player likes to look out for himself at some point. You want to protect your dignity a little bit."

 

I'm looking for someone to make me feel good about this juggle job.

That quote from Hall makes me feel much less empathy for him. Man, you're getting paid very well, deal with it - "protect your dignity" by just keeping something like that to yourself/inner circle. He's solid at 3B, and can make just as much money there long-term. Heck, if anything, the little CF experiment will help his value when he hits FA.

 

The net worth of the moves should make you feel good about it, TPR! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Ennder]

Hall said he wants to get a position and stick with it, not that he was against moving to 3B he just wants the move to be permanent. Can't really blame a guy for wanting to settle into one position but that quote is a bit out of context.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fair enough - I know even as I typed it I thought about the context/o-o-context factor. I just wish guys would know when it's better, PR-wise, to just keep the mouth shut. Taking quotes out of context has really become a journalist's job if he/she is too lazy to do otherwise. It's that 'you want to protect your dignity' part that irked me.

[Fatter than Joey]

But that isn't what they are an upgrade over, those 4 should throw roughly 250 IP I'd say.

 

I tend to see the BP as having 2 components, a front end and a back end.

 

Someone once said that a team is going to win 50 games and lose 50 games, its the other 82 that are in play. In theory guys like Spurling and Dessens should be pitching in the blowouts. I don't care how much we upgrade Spurling, it probably won't translate into a lot of wins. Upgrading Cordero, Linebrink, Wise, Villy, and Turnbow however would translate into more wins -- but I don't see Mota+Riske+Gagne+Torres being a "huge" upgrade. It would be like the Packers upgrading their backup QB, it's probably a good thing to do, but won't realistically put more wins in the column.

 

Balfour - 2.7 IP of 20.25 ERA

 

You should be ashamed to use ERA and a 3IP sample to help your argument http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

It's that 'you want to protect your dignity' part that irked me.

 

 

 

I suspect that Bill doesn't want people to get the impression that the reason he gets moved around a lot is because the Brewers can't find a spot for him to play adequately on the field.

[Ennder]

You should be ashamed to use ERA and a 3IP sample to help your argument

 

 

 

I just included the ERA, they aren't really part of the argument since I don't believe in ERA over less than 80 IP, but I know its info other people want.

 

 

 

I don't care how much we upgrade Spurling, it probably won't translate into a lot of wins

 

 

 

Spurling was in games that mattered so it does actually make a difference. We had more important innings pitched than those people you mentioned covered. Aquino and Splurling were in big situations and ultimately failed in them too. Linebrink and Wise basically count as 1 pitcher since Wise was useless around the time Linebrink came on board.

 

 

 

Cordero, Turnbow, Wise/Linebrink, Villy/crap, crap with Shouse as the Loogy was our imprtant bullpen spots last year.

 

Gagne, Turnbow, Riske, Torres, Bush/Vargas/Mota? with Shouse as the Loogy is our important bullpen this year.

 

 

 

I'll take this years bullpen, especially if Yost pushes Turnbow down to the 6th or 7th inning instead of setup man since my money is on him being the 4th best RP on the team now.

[brewtank34]

Wise, Dessens, Aquino are all gone....that's all that really needs to be said right now. As long as Wiser is not in that BP, I think we upgraded.

[Fatter than Joey]

I just included the ERA, they aren't really part of the argument since I don't believe in ERA over less than 80 IP, but I know its info other people want.

 

 

 

If that's the case, you are just perpetuating people's mis-use of ERA! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

 

I understand and appreciate your points -- I don't agree however that our BP has been "hugely upgraded" -- It may be better, it may be worse.

[logan82]

I can't believe I am saying this, but I agree with FTJ. I think we picked up one more guy than we had last year, but none of them are definite to be better. They all have been good over their careers, but are all, except Riske, coming off of bad years. I think most will bounce back and our bulpen will be better than last year, but it is by no means a given.

[Ennder]

They aren't coming off of bad years, they had high ERA's, huge difference. As I said every single one (except gagne who was hurt before) of them pitched as well or better than the year before. I think the problem is people are getting caught up in those ERA's like they actually mean a lot which they don't.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the problem is people are getting caught up in those ERA's like they actually mean a lot which they don't.

 

I have a hard time buying this from a guy who just littered a post with 10 pitchers' ERAs. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

These aren't amazing RP's but they are all above league average guys.

 

You said that -- which I can more or less go along with -- but they are replacing guys who for the most part like Villy, Cordero, Linebrink, Wise, who are/were league average or better pitchers. I have never contended that these pitchers are "bad" -- or that they had bad 2007s. I certainly question if paying $3.2M for Mota is wise, but I really do not see this group as a "huge" upgrade.

 

I can't believe I am saying this, but I agree with FTJ.

 

Welcome to the dark side. The first time is pretty hard to agree with me for anyone, but afterwards your self-worth and standards will deteriorate more and more, so that every subsequent time you agree with me, you will be less and less appalled at yourself.

 

The first time, you are at a party, having a good time with your friends, and you think to yourself, "There is no harm in agreeing with him one time, right?" Shortly thereafter you find yourself agreeing with me on Wednesday afternoons, and then Sunday mornings. You become to pull away from your family and friends, and snapping at those who were once dear to you. You will bottom out when your wife finds you agreeing with me in between innings, under the bleachers at your kid's little league game. After that, you will be agreeing with me simply for the sake of agreeing with me -- and it won't be my quality arguments either, you will be agreeing with me about actors who may or may not acted in 80s sitcoms that probably never even happened, or which Fanta girl is the hottest, or what Darren was better on Bewitched.

 

and then the end will be dark.

[Ennder]

I have a hard time buying this from a guy who just littered a post with 10 pitchers' ERAs.

 

Did anything in my post suggest that ERA had much to do with the pitchers replaced? Did I somehow add up stats and look at the ERA improvements or anything like that? I mean really I just posted the ERA's because it is the one stat most people ask for when looking at a pitcher, just like I'd post OPS if I were listing hitters because that is the stat most people look at. Have I ever tried to prove something using a single season of ERA on this board or have I talked against ERA saying it was a poor measurement of pitchers in almost every single statistical post I've been involved in?

 

It shouldn't be hard to buy.

 

I would expect Bush to be at least close to as good as Villy in a relief role, Linebrink and Wise are one guy, they combined for 1 guy worth of IP so they are Riske basically. That leaves Torres and Gagne vs Cordero and um Spurling I guess and Mota vs Aquino/Dessens/King/etc. I still think it is an upgrade.