The Brewers didn't address their real needs

[areacodes]

which allows our opponents to load up the righty pitchers against us

Other than at the beginning of the season and after the all-star break how are teams really going to attempt to do that? Are they really going to have guys go on short rest and take extra days off just to throw a righty against the Brewers? I would think the coaches would be more concerned about keeping their pitchers on a normal rotation. This argument has been brought up before and I just don't really think its likely, now if you want to argue that Prince will see more LOOGY's and that he'll have to take his walks because righties will pitch around him... I could see those arguments, but that they'll stack the rotation just for the Brewers seems a bit off.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Other than at the beginning of the season and after the all-star break how are teams really going to attempt to do that? Are they really going to have guys go on short rest and take extra days off just to throw a righty against the Brewers?"

 

Down the stretch. In September. In the playoffs? I can definitely see Piniella, Manuel, Hurdle, LaRussa, Melvin, Cox, Randolph (OK, that was a reach!) moving around a starter here and there to offset all these righty bats during the pennant race. If it costs us 1, 2 or 3 games? Hey, that's all it took in 2007. 2 lousy games. And it's not like we can count on Ned not costing us 3 or 4, alone. We don't have the luxury, I'm afraid.

 

And I WILL spot you that Cameroon isn't as icky against RHPs as other righty hitters we have. Kendall's splits aren't as dreadful, either. But Hardy's are, and Hall's, and Rickie's, and Hart's, but not as much. That's a lot of times when we'll wish we had that extra RHP-killer in the lineup to make up for them.

 

...he's still not that .300+ BA, .350+ OBP guy we needed to get on base before the boppers got to bat.

 

"Who was this player that the Brewers could have got by simply offering a one year guaranteed contract?"

 

He's not available. You're right. But that wasn't what i was shooting for. I wanted a genuine lefty hitter who could single-in or double-in some baserunners. A 1-year-deal for an old guy on drug suspension is not that guy. We have 7 starting pitchers, some blocked nuggets like Gamel and Parra, and a tiny window of opportunity with the Cardinals and Astros asleep. Bite the bullet and "overpay" to make that trade, Doug, instead of bringing in these 1-year Band-Aids like Gagne and Kendall and Mota and Cameroon.

[pogokat]

If the lack of lefties is proving that detrimental, can't we assume that doug will go find one later?

 

 

 

also, it doesn't manke the team more vulnerable against righties...it more or less keeps them the same...

 

 

 

i still want the team to grab an aged slugger who still hits righties well but doesn't cost much for the bench (over tgj)

 

 

 

but i'm not sweating this one...

[craigharmann]

kramnoj wrote:

 

"And now we're VERY vulnerable to righty pitchers. "

Bill Hall says the Brewers are not vulnerable to anyone.

[Ennder]

Pinella won't pass on Lilly/Hill to go with Dempster/Marquis so our biggest rival won't make much use out of it at the very least.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

" If the lack of lefties is proving that detrimental, can't we assume that doug will go find one later?"

 

As I mentioned earlier, Pogo, Doug occasionally dons the blinders in certain personnel situations....like this one. He pieced together that ridiculous bullpen in 2003 when we had not even one lefty, and he's not shy about moving players out of position when the team's defense is compromised.

 

This time, it's the lack of a 2nd and a 3rd, maybe even a 4th lefty bat for the everyday lineup. 4 of our righty starters drop off sharply against RHPs, which exposes us, I'm afraid.

 

Again, Cameroon is an upgrade over Menchkins and he's not 2 halves of a horse costume vacuuming up $11+ million. I just wish he batted left-handed, is all. And I don't think bothered to address this lineup imbalance, when the overriding majority of pitchers are, of course, right-handed.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rickie's, and Hart's

 

No way I can grant these two. Hart's OPS v. RHP last year was .824, and Rickie's was .787 - anyone out there have the OPS data on Rickie post-callup/post wrist-clearing surgery?

 

Cameron will be a .350 OBP guy, GSP. He's posted a .340-ish OBP playing in PetCo. You can easily adjust that to .350 with a move to MP. In fact, his road splits from 2006 & 2007 (respectively) are: .265/.350/.465/.815 & .251/.341/.449/.790

 

Even with playing in pitcher-friendly parks, his BA since 1999 has been right around league-average.

[Team Canada]

Just a preference, that's all. I wanted a Lyle Overbay, circa 2004-type, to bat 3rd, and we didn't get him.

 

Well so did Doug, but clearly he couldn't find one.

 

[Oldcity]

So why is Braun suddenly unsuitable for hitting in the third spot? If you're batting a non-Prince lefty third, do you hit Prince fifth?

[Ennder]

I think Geno has a pretty strong point, if you look at our team vs righties career splits we are giving away about .040 points of OBP and .040 points of SLG against righties. The team could really use a lefty type utility guy that can play all over and carry a .350+ OBP vs righties.

 

Weeks - .249/.345/.403/.748 vs righties

Weeks - .250/.392/.433/.825 vs lefties

 

Cameron - .246/.333/.434/.767 vs righties

Cameron - .265/.363/.480/.843 vs lefties

 

Braun - .282/.319/.526/.845 vs righties

Braun - .450/.516/.964/1.480 vs lefties (egads)

 

Fielder - .290/.381/.570/.951 vs righties

Fielder - .256/.339/.489/.828 vs lefties

 

Hart - .270/.315/.486/.801 vs righties

Hart - .313/.389/.544/.933 vs lefties

 

Hall - .262/.310/.461/.771 vs righties

Hall - .270/.350/.484/.834 vs lefties

 

Hardy - .251/.308/.383/.691 vs righties

Hardy - .297/.359/.558/.917 vs lefties

 

Kendall - .297/.374/.387/.761 vs righties

Kendall - .297/.379/.418/.797 vs lefties

 

Gross - .260/.350/.434/.784 vs righties

Gross - .093/.269/.167/.436 vs lefties

[TooLiveBrew]

We might have to settle for that role being split between a reserve OF (Gross) & a reserve IF. My vote for that IF is Ensberg - whose 3-yr. split v. RHP is as follows: .248/.362/.471/.833. Yes, a righty, who's fared better v. LHP, but that .362 OBP v. RHP includes his disastrous .305 number from 2007. Further, his BB/K rate in 2007 was out of whack with his career rate by a significant amount.

 

However, I'm getting more & more suspicious that the front office types in MLB know something I/we all don't... I'm very surprised that Ensberg hasn't been signed yet. Anyone have any quasi-insider info? We've been over the fact that his shoulder injury/ies are in the past - at least based on his production.

[kramnoj]

It could be that Ensberg just can't accept the offers he is getting. His time in Houston in 2007 really put a damper on his perceived value. I would imagine he had visions of big money dancing through his head, and can't get past the reality that the money may have disappeared for him.

[LouisEly]

I think JB makes some good points, but I think his point about fewer Ks is more important than BA. A while back I posted a similar comparison between the '92 team and the 2001 team which scored the exact same number of runs - 740 - even though there was a very small difference in OBP (.331 in '92 to .319 in '01) but a huge difference in SLG (.375 in '92 to .426 in '01). Even if we accept the theory that OBP is 1.8 times more valuable than SLG, that still gives a big edge to the '01 team - they should have scored more runs. The difference between the two was that the '92 team struck out 620 times less and stole 190 more bases.

 

 

 

For those of you hung up on OBP, going back to one of Geno's posts in the Cameron (or "Cameroon" as Geno calls him) thread was that Geno woud rather have a guy who hits .290 with a .330 OBP that a guy who hits .250 with a .340 OBP. I will bet that in that scenario that the .290 hitter, all things equal, will have the higher SLG and produce more runs. If those players both get 550 ABs, the .290 hitter will get 160 hits and the .250 hitter will get 138 hits, so player A will have 22 more hits than player A. Chances are those 22 hits will not be all singles, thus more bases, and chances are that any runners on base will advance more bases, and thus produce more runs. Player B will walk/HBP more, but will only get on base six more times over 600 PAs than Player A and will only advance runners one base if at all - if first base is open then the runners won't advance at all, unlike if a player A got a hit. So I think there is some evidence that a much higher BA with a slightly smaller OBP will be more productive than a much lower BA guy with a slightly higher OBP.

[kramnoj]

LouisEly, why look at a hypothetical when you can look at real players? Compare Cameron to Juan Pierre. Cameron in his career has hit .251/.341/.445. In context, he is below average on contact, above average OBP, and above average power. Pierre has hit .301/.348/.374. In context, he his above average on contact, essentially average OBP, and horrid power. Which player would you rather have?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think you can find examples that'll work either way. So for me, I look at the most valuable elements in terms of BA, OBP, & SLG. For me, the top two are OBP & SLG, but many will swear by BA.

[rluzinski]

"For those of you hung up on OBP, going back to one of Geno's posts in the Cameron (or "Cameroon" as Geno calls him) thread was that Geno woud rather have a guy who hits .290 with a .330 OBP that a guy who hits .250 with a .340 OBP."

 

 

 

That's a perfectly reasonable position, since a single is certainly worth more than a walk on average. The problem is when people think a .800 OPS with a .300 BA is worth significantly more than a .800 OPS with a .260 BA (assuming the same OBP). BA adds directly to a player's SLG, so its value is already captured by his OPS, roughly speaking.

 

 

 

As for JB's analysis, I just can't go along with it (although I don't see why it didn't deserve its own thread). Heck, I don't really think that the offense was a problem to begin with.

[lukevan]

So I think there is some evidence that a much higher BA with a slightly smaller OBP will be more productive than a much lower BA guy with a slightly higher OBP.

 

 

 

I think you are correct on this. Where OBP falls down is a walk can come around to score but only scores a run if the bases are loaded of course. It would not be wise to have a bunch of sub-.250 hitters even if they all carry decent walk rates. But we should have Braun, Fielder and Hart all hitting around/above .300.

 

 

 

However I think we do need to focus on OBP for THIS team because of our propensity to hit HRs. Kendall and Cameron's OBP improvement over Estrada and Menchkins will help us hit more 2 and 3 run HRs instead of solo shots, of which we had many last season.

[Ennder]

A bunch of sub .250 hitters who all BB'd enough to make up the OBP would score almost exactly the same as a bunch of .300 hitters with the same OBP assuming the same OPS. A line of .250/.350/.450/.800 is as valuable as a .300/.350/.450/.800. Yes a single is more valuable than a BB but it also raises your SLG so the .250 hitter in this example has more power than the .300 hitter does.

 

 

 

Nobody is trying to say just look at OBP and nothing else, the point is that AVG is not somehow more important than OBP. If you raise the team AVG it raises the OBP and the SLG and OPS, that is a good thing and nobody disagrees.

[lukevan]

End-

 

 

 

Wouldn't the .300 hitter in your example get more RBI, while still also getting on base and slugging at the same clip?

 

 

 

Or more aptly: Wouldn't the .300 hitter average more RBI given a hypothetical situation in which the two players had the same lineup positions/opportunities? Straighten me out if I'm wrong.

[Ennder]

End-

 

 

 

Wouldn't the .300 hitter in your example get more RBI, while still also getting on base and slugging at the same clip?

 

Or more aptly: Wouldn't the .300 hitter average more RBI given a hypothetical situation in which the two players had the same lineup positions/opportunities? Straighten me out if I'm wrong.

 

There is no way to really know for an individual player since it depends on game situations. A single increases your SLG which means to keep the same OPS the lower AVG higher BB guy has to hit more doubles and HR's to compensate. Sometimes that will lead to scoring runs a single wouldn't have scored, sometimes it doesn't. Overall OBP and SLG can predict runs reliably without knowing what a team's AVG is.

[pogokat]

Even though no lefty hitting righty mashers have been acquired, it's worth noting that both the free agents brought in this year hit righties pretty well...so at least team canada didnt load up on guys that can't hit lefties a t all...

 

i'm really still expecting them to find another lefty for the bench in the john vanderwal mode...or perhaps in the derosa/lamb mode...a power hitting utility guy who is a lefty...

[Ennder]

just to compare the two lets run the numbers over 600 PA's.

 

.300/.350/.450/.800

 

557 AB, 167 H, 43 BB, 30 2B, 13.4 HR

 

.250/.350/.450/.800

 

520 AB, 130 H, 80 BB, 30 2B, 18.5 HR.

 

So the first one has 37 more singles that could end up scoring runs but the second one hits slightly over 5 more HR's which will score runs no matter what and 37 more BB's to make up the difference in OBP. Pick your poison.

[Gopher74]

I've been saying this since last season, the Crew needs better starting pitching. Now that many of the problems (except lefthanded bat with high OBP) have been addressed Dougie needs to find a near ace. Probably too hard to obtain though.

 

I think Briggs makes some salient points, none of us has all the answers outside of buying A-Rod and trading for Santana.

I don't understand how people are so uneasy about the starting pitching.

 

We certainly don't need another "near ace" in my estimation. As has been pointed out, the pitching is going to be greatly improved with the defense.

Second, we've got Yovani Gallardo coming up that's a future ace in the making. He's our "almost ace".

Ben Sheets. He is our ACTUAL ace.

Villanueva's been a stud since he started for us.

Suppan's reliable.

Cappy had one down year after two very good ones.

Parra's got a ton of potential.

Bush is a solid starting pitcher.

Vargas is as good as most number 5's in the game.

 

I just don't see it as being a question mark. In fact, I think our starting pitching is VERY good. I tend to agree with the SI article that says our SP'ing is the 3rd best in the NL.

[Gopher74]

Down the stretch. In September. In the playoffs? I can definitely see Piniella, Manuel, Hurdle, LaRussa, Melvin, Cox, Randolph (OK, that was a reach!) moving around a starter here and there to offset all these righty bats during the pennant race.

 

And I WILL spot you that Cameroon isn't as icky against RHPs as other righty hitters we have. Kendall's splits aren't as dreadful, either. But Hardy's are, and Hall's, and Rickie's, and Hart's, but not as much. That's a lot of times when we'll wish we had that extra RHP-killer in the lineup to make up for them.

 

 

 

He's not available. You're right. But that wasn't what i was shooting for. I wanted a genuine lefty hitter who could single-in or double-in some baserunners. A 1-year-deal for an old guy on drug suspension is not that guy. We have 7 starting pitchers, some blocked nuggets like Gamel and Parra, and a tiny window of opportunity with the Cardinals and Astros asleep. Bite the bullet and "overpay" to make that trade, Doug, instead of bringing in these 1-year Band-Aids like Gagne and Kendall and Mota and Cameroon.

First of all, stop saying "drugs". It was most likely something like Ephedra. It's hardly a big deal, nor is it a performance enhancing drug. He took a supplement, a claim that is actually believeable because he didn't have any type of Steroid in his body. A stimulant is hardly a big deal.

 

Second, Parra is not blocked. Pitchers are almost never "blocked".

 

Third, you talk about this "tiny window", which, no offense, but I find ridiculous given the youth we've got, in addition to our growing revenue, our growing payroll, and our farm system which is still a top 5-9 system even after losing several top prospects to the major leagues. AND we've got several picks in the first 2 rounds the next 2 years to rebuild that farm system even further, so suggesting we've got a tiny window just isn't true in any manner unless you consider a "tiny" window as a 5 year window.

 

I mean, if you decide to overpay in trades to bring in this left hander, giving up guys like Parra, Gamel and starting pitchers, then I guess your window very well may be a "tiny" one, but for one of the youngest teams in the big leagues, vastly increased revenues, and a great farm system, I don't think our window is "tiny". The key's going to be making smart moves, not knee jerk moves, and definitely not by overpaying in trades to address such a small need(having too many right handers in our lineup), especially when we've addressed every other need on the team, and we didn't have to give up anyone in order to do so.

 

Fourth, yea, I suppose it's possible that at some point in time down the stretch there MAY be a couple games in which teams move around starters so that we have to face right handers rather than left handers. It's hardly something to worry about though, and the Chicago Cubs are almost definitely not going to be that team. Not with Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall all in their rotation. That's 3 left handers. So what are they going to do? They'll try to get Zambrano into any series they can, so that's got little to do with our lineup, and if they'd rather throw Marquis than one of those guys, fine.

 

 

And finally, what's the problem now with Gange's contract? The only reason that was a good deal, much like the Cameron one is BECAUSE it's a one year deal. It's funny to me. Some people would be complaining that we're not trying to win if we didn't make those deals, but now we're complaining that we DID. We wouldn't have signed Gange for more than one year. We wouldn't have given Cameron a long term deal. So we sign guys to fix major problems in spots, taking the chance that these great talents are going to have big years, but not committing too much money so as to handcuff us in the future, and it's now a problem? That makes very little sense to me.

 

 

I hears ya, TLB, but for one, I think it's very possible that Cameroon, at age 35, could face the beginnings of a career decline. And without the drugs he was taking, perhaps a sharp one. I wouldn't be surprised to see him post a .255 BA, with 20 HRs, 65 RBIs, 5 SBs and a .740 OPS, which is nothing special.

1st of all, he's a guy who takes great care of himself, so I don't think there a decline at age 35 is something to worry about.

2nd, you're right. It's NOT something special. But it doesn't have to be. We have a very good offense. A VERY good lineup. What we needed to do was fix out defense, and we did that in a big way by adding a 3-time GG'er and allowing Hall to move to 3rd base. It's almost like we're trying to find a way to look down on this signing when in reality, it was a great deal for us. We got a player who was set to get 12+ earlier last season for about 6 million dollars this year, and he fixes by far our biggest issue.

 

And I WILL spot you that Cameroon isn't as icky against RHPs as other righty hitters we have. Kendall's splits aren't as dreadful, either. But Hardy's are, and Hall's, and Rickie's, and Hart's, but not as much. That's a lot of times when we'll wish we had that extra RHP-killer in the lineup to make up for them.

 

Ok, but we're definitely not getting rid of any of those players, so the real point is how is Cameron vs right handers, not how Hall, Hart, Hardy and Weeks do vs them.

Second, Hart was actually very solid vs right handers last year hitting about .280 with 15 HR's and a .825 OPS vs right handers.

Rickie is actually a very good hitter vs right handers. In 06 vs righties than lefties with a .280/.360. Last year, a year in which he was banged up all year he still had a .353 OBP vs right handers, so he's not a real problem.

Hardy hit .265/.305 last year vs right handers, so he struggles vs them, but it's not really a huge concern.

 

Bottom line, if these are the players you're pointing to in suggesting that we're in a lot of trouble vs right handers, I just don't see it.

[Gopher74]

Sorry for the consecutive replies, but I've been out of town for this thread(PACKER GAME!!), and it's a topic that I've debated on many times this off-season.

 

What were the needs for this team going into the off-season?

1-Bullpen

2-Improve the Team Defense

3-Improve the Team OBP

4-Get a left handed hitter to fit into that number 2 hole.

 

So what did we do to address those issues/needs?

Bullpen

1-We lost Linebrink and Cordero to the White Sox and the Reds. That gave us 4 picks total in the 1st two rounds when Cordero signed a 4 year 46 million dollar deal, and Linebrink signed a 4 year deal worth nearly 20 million dollars. It clearly would have hurt us badly to match those contracts in the future, so instead we looked elsewhere and added 4 VERY valuable picks moving forward.

We added;

-Eric Gange

*Gange's never done anything but succeed in the closers role. He was 16 of 17 last year in Texas, and even in Boston, his stuff was still very good, but his results overall were poor. This is a result of basically 6 poor innings. It's his second year back from major arm surgery, and that's usually when a player comes back all the way. So we sign the guy for 10 million over 1 year. It's a 1 year deal, and he was the best choice to replace our departed closer, so I don't know how it can be viewed as a bad deal. In fact, I'd think most would be thrilled with it because it's a low risk/huge reward type move. If he comes back and is the same guy he was in Texas, we're in great shape.

-Salomon Torres

*Torres is another guy who's low risk, high reward. He was fantastic the three years prior to 07 when he threw over 90 innings every year, and put up very good ERA's. I think he's going to essentially be our Caros Villanueva this year, a guy who can help you out in any situations. He can go 2 innings if you have a short start and get you to the 7th, he can come into a late inning situation, and he's closed as he was the Pirates closer to start last year. He had a sore elbow last year that inflated his ERA to about 5.00, but again, that was one year he struggled to the previous three he was very effective.

-David Riske

*The guy has just been very reliable for pretty much his entire career. He's had one single year in which his ERA was over 4.00 in a full season back in 2002, and his ERA after the first couple weeks last year was about 1.55. His stuff isn't as great as the others, but he just gets guys out. His numbers have been very similar to Scott Linebrinks with two differences. 1st, he's pitched in the AL as opposed to the NL which is clearly tougher, and 2nd, Linebrink appears to be on the decline while Riske does not. He looks to be a major addition, and he was far cheaper than Linebrink and a fraction of what Cordero signed for.

Guillermo Mota

*It's another low risk/high reward type move. He's got great stuff, but has been erratic. He's the last guy in our pen, and he was great in 2006 for the Mets, so maybe Maddux can work with him and get him to turn it around, but even if he doesn't, we're going to be just fine.

 

 

You can't look at that as anything but a huge upgrade and at a much cheaper price. Plus we didn't have to give up anything of consequence in our farm system.

And I think a relatively dismissed point, but one that's going to be a huge help is the fact that Turnbow can be used more liberally now. That is to say last year when he struggled for most of the year the only option you had to follow him up with was either garbage, or our closer. This year if Turnbow's the 7th inning guy you can likely follow him up with Riske/Torres/Mota OR our closer in Gange. That should make Yost's decisions much easier when Turnbow doesn't have it.

 

2-Team Defense

 

We brought in a Gold Glover in Center Field. Clearly that's a huge upgrade. We move Hall to 3rd base, and Braun to LF. Hall's an average 3rd basemen, but whatever adjective you'd use to describe Braun to average is a giant leap, and Braun's a downgrade from Jenks in LF, at least initially, but the kid's such an athlete, it'll be hard for me to imagine that he doesn't develop into at least a passable defender in the near future. He's got great speed, and a cannon for an arm. That should be of little consequence.

3-Improve Team OBP

Gone from last year;

Kevin Mench-308 TPA's and a .305 OBP

Geoff Jenkins-416 TPA's and a .319 OBP

Johnny Estrada-464 TPA's and a .296 OBP

Tony Graffinino-261 TPA's and a .315 OBP

That's a total of 1449 PA's of about .308 OBP.

Added to this year's team;

Jason Kendall-Bill James Projections-.369 OBP Three year Splits-.340 OBP (Note-Last two years road splits were MUCH higher, .354 on road)

Mike Cameron-Bill James Projections-.333 OBP Three Year Splits-.342 OBP (Note-Again, on the road, MUCH higher, .351 on road)

 

 

I add their road OBP because they both played in parks that VASTLY favor the pitcher, so both players should greatly benefit offensively from playing in Miller Park.

 

 

4-Left Handed Hitter to Fit into #2 Hole

 

So we didn't get a left handed hitter. Melvin certainly tried. He was talking about Blalock who would have cost us a great deal, and to be fair, doesn't really have a great recent past as he's been rather average his last couple seasons.

He tried to get several players, but he would have had to give up several players, and, this is key, he'd have had to trade our pitchers when their value was at an all-time low, mainly Chris Capuano. He'd basically of been giving Cappy away.

And who are we talking about here?

Andre Eithier? Adam LaRoche? Hank Blalock? Luis Gonzalez? Shawn Green?

 

Are those players enough better than(if at all) Mike Cameron to not only give up players like Cappy, but possibly prospects like Gamel as well? I guess I just don't see it.

 

 

So we essentially improve everything we wanted to, without giving up a single player of consequence, and without committing to any long term deals other than David Riske, as close to a sure thing as you'll get from a reliever, and only 4 million annually at that.

 

I just don't see what there is to complain about. I looked at this team as a team that needed to tweak a few things, and totally revamp the defense, and they did that. They did that without taking any long term deals, or giving anything up. Sure, we didn't sign Arod, trade for Johan, and then hire Sparky Anderson, but I thought we did pretty damn well considering what we had to work with. I just don't understand the complaints.