The Brewers didn't address their real needs

[mothershipconnection]

I'm pretty happy with our rotation, as we really have no holes when you look at it now - which of course can and will change when the season starts and guys get hurt or melt down. Considering our modest payroll, I'm not sure how you could be unhappy with the rotation, as many of our small market brethren would love to have our depth instead of scouring the waiver wire for Jamey Wright.

 

 

 

True, we don't have a sure-fire ace we can depend on for 30+ starts, and yeah, we don't have an easily-projected #2 behind that. However, you just aren't gonna find that unless the team has enormous resources or gets lucky for a couple years. All the way down the rotation, there aren't a lot of teams that can rival our aggregate talent, as you won't find a ton of teams who may not have a place for Capuano, Parra, and Bush. We would have been elated to have any one of those guys as our "worst" SP a few years ago.

 

 

 

So yeah, I'd love to add CC Sabathia or Johan Santana, but I'd also love to add Hanley Ramirez - that doesn't mean there's anything wrong with Hardy.

[Oldcity]

The Brewers' number one need was defense. They improved defense at three positions by this move. So... how didn't this address a real need?

[MNBrew]

JB12's original post does get at an important point which many posters seem to be missing:

 

 

 

When the '07 Brewers weren't hitting HRs, they often had a hard time driving in runners. While team speed didn't help with half the roster, the larger problem simply was getting a base hit in the clutch. You can recite OBP 'til you're blue in the face and talk down about BA, but the fact is that with a guy on 2nd, a BB doesn't get a run in where a single does. Way too often that didn't happen.

 

 

 

Yes, the Brewers do need to walk more and K less. But they also just plain need a whole lot more hits, and especially with guys on base. Not every hit would make a difference but plenty of them would. Something as simple as just two more hits per every three games would likely make a very noticeable difference over the course of a season!

[TooLiveBrew]

Since hitters' production with RISP/Runers on fluctuates year to year, the only thing you can control is how many opportunites you provide your guys to drive in runs... read: OBP.

 

It's not a surprise that a team that led the NL & a team that was 2nd in the AL in OBP last year wound up playing each other in the WS.

[Ennder]

NL teams sorted by GPA (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4 last season with their R/G ranking. This is the modified version of OPS that is corrected for the fact OBP is worth 1.8 times as much as SLG.

 

 

 

.274 - PHI - #1

 

.269 - COL - #2

 

.263 - FLA - #6

 

.262 - NYM - #4

 

.262 - MIL - #5

 

.261 - ATL - #3

 

.260- CIN - #7

 

.255 - CHC - #8

 

.253 - LAN - #10

 

.253 - STL - #11

 

.251 - HOU - #13

 

.249 - PIT - #12

 

.248 - ARI - #14

 

.247- SDP - #9

 

.244 - WAS - #15

 

.241- SFG - #16

 

 

 

SD is the only real outlier in this list. Pretty much if you know a teams OBP and their SLG you can be almost sure of what kind of R/G they'll have. Arizona's .249 BA/RISP didn't really change their expected R/G and neither did Atlanta's .291 BA/RISP. It really does not have as big an effect as people think it does.

[Fatter than Joey]

#2 was OBP. Yes raising the AVG would raise this but so would taking more BB's, doesn't really matter which path we take to get it.

 

This was my initial reaction as well. The original poster framed the post around the fact the Brewers hit a lot of HRs. If that is the case I fail to see the value of AVE over BB. If the Brewers decided to play in the 1979 Astrodome, I would certainly understand the value in AVE guys.

 

When the '07 Brewers weren't hitting HRs, they often had a hard time driving in runners.

 

Right, however it's not like someone turns off the HR spigot. I think you have 2 types hitters, you have guys making contact for the sake of making contact, and you have guys looking for a pitch to drive, and won't swing at pitches out of the strikezone. If the Brewers "aren't hitting HRs" it's because guys like Fielder/Braun are contacting the ball in a less than optimal way and flying out. It's not like someone says "we are done hitting HRs" let's get some singles. Now, there is something to be said about a player having consistently good ABs. I think that players that get a lot of walks generally are going to have less bad ABs as well.

[Blazer25]

I'm not entirely sure you can just pick some stat that the '82 team did better in and attribute the majority of their success to it.

I guess I'm not entirely sure why we're comparing ourselves to a team that played in a different league, different era and LOST the World Series?

 

Can we please let 1982 go? What was the formula for the Marlins in 1997 and 2003 and what was Boston's formula last year? I want to win like that.

[valpocrewsader]

Man, Briggs writes up an awesome discussion point and all he does is get dumped on by people who seem unwilling to admit there might be some semblance of a valid point in what he's saying. I know it's insulting to accuse people of wearing over-optimistic Brewers goggles and blinders, but honestly don't most of you think it's a problem that we hit a remarkable buttload of homeruns last year but, in the end, it didn'translate into an impressive amoutn of runs scored? Seems like a big problem to me, and one that might very well repeat in 2008. I'm willing to listen to opinions on the matter....

[Ennder]

I'm not dumping on him, i'm just saying just because the winner of a marathon has blue shoes doesn't mean blue shoes will make me run faster.

Nothing in the post really has anything to do with the Brewers from last year or this year which is fine except he had to take a jab at stats guys in the post so he opened himself up to criticism.

Team OBP is a problem and we all know it was but trying to say that adding a .300 AVG hitter who doesn't walk would somehow help more than a .250 hitter who does BB is not the truth and certainly not proven by his post. A hitter with an OBP of .350 and SLG of .450 is going to pretty much be just as valuable regardless of whether or not he does it by hitting .250 with a lot of BB's or .300 with almost no BB's, the AVG is not what drives the value as long as the SLG is staying a constant.

[Tbadder]

Our pitching is made to look much worse by our D, though. Some people don't recognize how big of an impact it has (sorry, TBadder - not trying to be mean to ya), and just felt that our P struggled a bunch last year.

 

I can't believe this thread title. I don't even need to explain why, even to JohnBriggs.

OMG, no offense taken. In fact I think you're right. Pitching will improve no doubt. We have depth it's true, but I don't see a shut down guy other than Sheets, who's always in question, and possible Gallardo, but lets se how the sophomore year goes. But I salivate, and truly believe, that the Crew would be the best team in the NL if it added Bedard, or the unthinkable-- Santana. I think we're in a position to really go for it, and I'm willing to mortgage the future. I think a package of Parra, Cappy, Hall, Jeffress, and Gamel is pretty presuasive. (truth is, ssshhh, don't tell anyone...I'd even trade Hart for one of the two).

[snyttri]

One weakness from last year that doesn't seem to have been addressed is acquiring a catcher who can throw runners out. A lot of steals are attributable to the pitcher but if a catcher can't throw you can steal on a catcher as well. I don't think that Kendall was well thought of when he left Oakland or Chicago or that he will be highly regarded here. Trading for an additional major league catcher might be a worthwhile use of an extra pitcher so the Brewers are better prepared for the not unlikely event that Kendall doesn't work out.

[Team Canada]

I don't buy the premise of this thread, and I could just as easily argue that the '82 team probably didn't blow 5 run leads with regularity.

[kramnoj]

"Trading for an additional major league catcher might be a worthwhile use of an extra pitcher so the Brewers are better prepared for the not unlikely event that Kendall doesn't work out. "

 

 

 

I think that is true in a vacuum, but I'm not sure that option was available to the Brewers. I would imagine that the Brewers expect Kendall to get on base more than Estrada and to not be a problem in the clubhouse. I wouldn't guess that the team is expecting more than that.

[homer]

Man, Briggs writes up an awesome discussion point and all he does is get dumped on by people who seem unwilling to admit there might be some semblance of a valid point in what he's saying.

I didn't realize that disagreeing meant 'dumping'.

[Oldcity]

Man, Briggs writes up an awesome discussion point and all he does is get dumped on by people who seem unwilling to admit there might be some semblance of a valid point in what he's saying.

I agree with his point that the Brewers need OBP. However, the title of this thread was that the Brewers didn't address their real needs. I disagreed because I felt their number one need was to improve defense. This signing drastically improved the team defense.

And Valpo, I don't really understand your point, because even you yourself said in the Cameron thread that you are now optimistic about the Brewers in '08 after this move.

 

[TheBrewer]

If the original poster is talking about BA.

 

 

 

Weeks could hit .300

 

Hardy could improve hit .290+

 

Braun will hit .300

 

Fielder could hit .300

 

Hart will most likely hit .300+

 

Cameron won't --

 

Hall MIGHT improve and be around .285ish

 

Kendal won't.

 

 

 

So in regards to BA I think for the most part many of these guys will hit .300 or will come close to it with another year under their belt. Not all players are going to be like Braun hitting .337 in their rookie year or w/e

[KCBrewerfan34]

If the original point was about OBP, getting Mench, Jenkins & Estrada should help in that area, shouldn't it? I know people have looked at Cameron's OBP last year and compared him to Jenkins, look at Cameron's road OBP the last 3 years, that might give you a better indication of what kind of player he is. Also, I would argue our team defense was/is a bigger need, and that has been addressed!!

[dvoiss]

What in God's name does it matter what the 82 Brewers did? It's like comparing apples and oranges. Thgat was 25 years ago. I don't think its fair to compare.. The 82 team was filled with veteran leadwers like Simmons, Thomas, Money etc... I think a big part of this teams failing in 07 was the lack of a veteran who could provide leadership on the field. I think Kendall and Cameron can provide a little of that. The kids having now gone through a pennant race won't hurt either. This team was not prepared to win in 07. A lot of the stat heads will argue with me on this but the spiritual side of winning can not be overlooked. This is simply a different horse than 82 was.

[Ennder]

I'm about the most stat oriented guy in the world and I agree that experience can only help cut down on the valleys in the season. I don't know if I buy into the veteran leadership discussion but just having been through a playoff race one time and knowing you can't try to do too much has got to help some. Players tend to get a little (emphasis on little) more consistent as they get older in general as well.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

First of all, JB, I think the homework you did WAS valid, and you shouldn't have to defend why you starte a new thread. Hell, I'd much rather we have MORE threads, taking different discussion angles, than 1 or 2 new moster threads with triple-digit reply counts, where your ideas are buried, somewhere on page 6.

 

 

 

Anyway, while I will agree that a 1982 AL team, with a DH, doesn't readily compare to a 2007 NL team, I believe JB was simply trying to compare a few characteristics of a very successful team (he obviously chose one that resonates very well with members of this forum) to ours from last year, which shouldn't have, but DID fall short.

 

 

 

I too have been clamoring for a left-handed 3B/outfielder for months now, but Doug couldn't/wouldn't complete such a transaction...which appears to be the thrust of JBriggs's argument here. While Cameroon (I still call him that, after seeing "Trading Places") is a nice upgrade over Menchkins, he's still not that .300+ BA, .350+ OBP guy we needed to get on base before the boppers got to bat.

 

 

 

And now we're VERY vulnerable to righty pitchers.

 

 

 

...all I'm sayin'

[TooLiveBrew]

he's still not that .300+ BA, .350+ OBP guy we needed to get on base before the boppers got to bat.

 

Actually, with the move to Miller Park, it's a very safe bet that he will indeed carry a .350 OBP. If you're strictly talking about getting on base, BA is irrelevant when you have OBP to examine. I once again lobby for Cam to be the #2 hitter in 2008...

[TerraceReserved]

I too have been clamoring for a left-handed 3B/outfielder for months now, but Doug couldn't/wouldn't complete such a transaction...which appears to be the thrust of JBriggs's argument here. While Cameroon (I still call him that, after seeing "Trading Places") is a nice upgrade over Menchkins, he's still not that .300+ BA, .350+ OBP guy we needed to get on base before the boppers got to bat.

The basis of Jbriggs arguement was that we need a .300 hitter. We need a guy who can get on base, no matter if he hits .250 or .300. And Cameron has a lifetime .341 OBP, with Petco suppressing that number, so he is that guy you're talking about.

[kramnoj]

"he's still not that .300+ BA, .350+ OBP guy we needed to get on base before the boppers got to bat. "

 

 

 

Who was this player that the Brewers could have got by simply offering a one year guaranteed contract?

 

 

 

"And now we're VERY vulnerable to righty pitchers. "

 

 

 

What impact do you think this is going to have?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Actually, with the move to Miller Park, it's a very safe bet that he will indeed carry a .350 OBP. If you're strictly talking about getting on base, BA is irrelevant when you have OBP to examine."

 

 

 

I hears ya, TLB, but for one, I think it's very possible that Cameroon, at age 35, could face the beginnings of a career decline. And without the drugs he was taking, perhaps a sharp one. I wouldn't be surprised to see him post a .255 BA, with 20 HRs, 65 RBIs, 5 SBs and a .740 OPS, which is nothing special. Secondly, he still doesn't bat lefty, which allows our opponents to load up the righty pitchers against us (which is easier to do than finding the rarer commodity - LHPs to throw at us). And I would still prefer he provide a good batting average, because if Weeks and probably Hardy get on base, they need to be driven in of course, and I can see Prince being I-BB'ed a whole lot this year - which doesn't drive in the run either.

 

 

 

Just a preference, that's all. I wanted a Lyle Overbay, circa 2004-type, to bat 3rd, and we didn't get him.

[TooLiveBrew]

And now we're VERY vulnerable to righty pitchers.

 

But Fielder, Braun, & Hart all hit RHP well. I personally add Weeks, since I think his offense to this point has been supressed by the wrist issue, which is clearly healed up. So if you'll grant me Rickie (.787 OPS v. RHP in 2007, .750 for 3-yr. split), that's half our everyday lineup that handles RHP well.

 

I hears ya, TLB, but for one, I think it's very possible that Cameroon, at age 35, could face the beginnings of a career decline. And without the drugs he was taking, perhaps a sharp one.

 

True, but the 'drugs' he was busted for were greenies, not steroids/HGH. His ISO has remained very strong, which is why I fully expect a .350/.450/.800-ish type of line.

I can see Prince being I-BB'ed a whole lot this year - which doesn't drive in the run either.

 

No, but it sets the table for Braun/Hart hitting behind Prince.

 

Just a preference, that's all. I wanted a Lyle Overbay, circa 2004-type, to bat 3rd, and we didn't get him.

 

Me too, it just stinks that he's harder to find than originally thought. OOOO!