The Brewers didn't address their real needs

[JohnBriggs12]

The 1982 and 2007 Brewers had one thing in common: They both allowed 68 unearned runs.

 

That's right. The much maligned poor defense of the 2007 team resulted in the exact same amount of extra runs being scored than the team that came within one game of a world championship.

 

The 82 and 07 Brewers had another thing in common. Both teams led their leagues in HR by a wide margin. The 82 team hit 216 HR. Next best were the Angels with 186. In 07, the Brewers led the NL with 231 HR. Next best were the Phillies with 213.

 

So what made the 82 team so much better than the 07 team? Pitching? To some extent, though both the 82 team (6th out of 14) and the 07 team (9th out of 16) were in the middle of the pack in club ERA.

 

No the difference was in scoring runs. The 82 team scored 891 runs, 77 more than any other team in the league. The 07 team, despite smashing 15 more HR than their 82 counterparts scored 90 fewer runs and finished no better than 5th in the league in that category.

 

So how did that 82 team score so many more runs? Did they take a lot more walks? No, actually, they took fewer walks in 82 (484) than in 07 (501). So just what did that 82 team do so well? Start the cringing now modern statheads cause the answer isn't going to fit with your general thinking. They did it by hitting well for average! That's right, that old ignored stat, batting average was the difference. The 82 team hit .279 to the 07 team's .262. Now that team used a DH, but it was 2nd in the league, and the 07 Brewers were 11th. That 82 team also put the bat on the ball, striking out 423 fewer times than the 07 team.

 

So how does Melvin fix the 07 Brewers for 08? Does he add a couple .300 hitters to help up that team batting average into the top tier in the league? Does he add contact hitters to allow runners to be moved up more often and score from 3rd with less than two outs? Well he got one in Kendall at least if go by his career .297 average and not his .242 that he compiled in 07. But his big pickup is Cameron, a lifetime .251 hitter, a lower average than Jenkins and a similar strikeout ratio.

 

So while the defense should be better, they appear poised to again be a team that hits tons of home runs but doesn't score enough. So again it's going to come down to health of Sheets as it always does and whether Gallardo and Villanueava pitch over a full season like they did down the stretch.

 

And oh yeah, they still have the same manager.

[gregmag]

Why exactly did this require a new thread?

[molitor fan]

Nice job with the research first of all. The thing that struck me as I was looking at an expected Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Hall, Hardy, Cameron, Kendall, P lineup is that our base speed is going to be inproved rather dramatically. Though I certainly do not want to be accused of being Joe Morgan again, the base clogging Estrada and, to some extent Jenkins, have been replaced by guys that can get from first to third, and home on doubles. I actually do feel that an all or nothing hitting approach can set in when hitters see plodders ahead of them, leading to an offense that can become too reliant on getting the runners home by trotting on a dinger. While Hall and Hardy are not base stealing threats, I would say that their actual base to base speed is above average. It is my hope that having a better overall lineup flow will lead to more big innings, and less of a reliance on the sheer power that this lineup will possess.

 

Edit: I just looked at the last page of the original Cameron trade thread, and Colby, Mass, and Gregmag (which I think are this site's version of Garnett-Pierce-Ray Allen) made excellent points about other ancillary benefits to this move. Leadership was a factor in the Suppan signing, and, from another perspective, it looks like it was here, as well.

 

Edit 2: In 5 at bats versus the Cubs Rich Hill last year, Cameron hit 4 home runs. That is not a misprint.

[lukevan]

I don't think our problem was not scoring enough runs last year. We gave up too many at crucial times. Defense was a much bigger weakness than team BA.

 

 

 

And who could've hit .300 for us? Maybe Rolen, but he'd more likely be in the .280-.290 range. Crawford? Only if you wanted to lose Gallardo.

 

 

 

Is Cameron the perfect fit? Not perfect, but he's as close as anyone else we could have considered, aside from Rolen IMO. At least we didn't have to trade Bill Hall and Chris Capuano to get Cameron.

[dadofandrew]

I would not have minded seeing Braun at 3B either JB, as he may well have improved to average, but there's little doubt he would have been well below average this year. If he can be average in LF, I see the Brewers as average or better at 6 of 8 spots, with both Weeks and Fielder still improving in that aspect. Rickie might there, or close, as he has been getting better since his initial call-up.

 

 

 

There's no way of saying improved defense will hurt the team, and there's little doubt the team now looks pretty decent in the field.

[billyhallfan]

i am getting sick of hearing about 82 this, and we would have won it if Rollie was healthy, and this team is like the 82 team, blah, blah, blah...

 

 

 

They were good, fine, it was over 25 years ago, this team isn't even close to the 82 team, just stop with all the comparisons, let Prince, and Braun, and Weeks form their own era instead of always comparing them to a team of a completely different era.

 

 

 

it is getting old...

[bigredrobbo]

You can't state AVG to be one of the main reasons for the difference and then gloss over the DH that the 82 team had as if it didn't matter.

 

2-3 PAs per game by the Crew's terrible-hitting pitchers or a PH vs. the 82 team's DH is gonna skew the stats just a tad...

[Mass Haas]

I'm guessing it wouldn't be difficult to replace the 2007 pitching AB numbers for the 1982 DH numbers and then re-visit the comparison.

 

Of course, that doesn't mean I'm going to do it...

[Brian the Automator]

I agree... You can't compare the 1982 Brewers and the 2007 Brewers. It's apples and oranges. What you CAN do is compare the Brewers to the rest of the teams in the NL in a given season.

 

 

 

2007:

 

- 5th most runs scored in the NL (Most in the NL Central)

 

- 9th fewest runs allowed in the NL (2nd fewest in the NL Central, behind the Cubs)

 

 

 

To me, that says it would be nice if they could score some more runs, as I'm not really comfortable scoring the 5th most (even if it does put them in front in a weak NL Central)... And I'm certainly not comfortable being in the middle of the pack when it comes to runs allowed. I feel that the club has addressed the defense as good as it can be addressed, and the bullpen should be stronger. The starting pitching is probably the thing I have the biggest concern with, just because Villanueva and Parra are unproven over the course of a whole season in the rotation, and Sheets's health is always a concern.

[igor67]

In another era the current line-up would have stolen bases like crazy in my opinion. The styles are much more conservative now largely as a reflection that with as much power as the team has you really don't want to waste a base runner. Largely because of that I wouldn't expect the team to lead the league in steals, but I could see them taking the title of the newer base running statistics that incorporate things like advancing extra bases and penalizing caught stealings.

[homer]

Defense is not measured solely by errors and unearned runs. It's extra pitches throw due to plays not made, it's bringing in bullpen guys earlier in a game, it's taking bad angles on line drives that end up as doubles instead of outs, it's not turning a double play, etc etc. This is an apples to oranges comparison. And you can't just use league rank between eras to compare worth. It's a completely different data set. I can't say the Brewers offense of 2007 was as good as the Yankees offense of 1961 based solely on runs scored. The park dimensions were totally different.

[brewers19]

I'm not entirely sure you can just pick some stat that the '82 team did better in and attribute the majority of their success to it. And speaking of OBP, the '82 team was at .335, whereas the '07 team was only at .329; one could just as easily point to that as the deciding factor. Right now, this is just statistics cherry picking.

[billyhallfan]

Defense is not measured solely by errors and unearned runs.

 

 

 

exactly, a lot of wrong points and opinions are made because of bad calcualation of lesser important statistical information.

[MNBrew]

You can pick apart JB12's points all you want. Maybe there is a whole lot of mitigating information and circumstances. 1982 and 2007 are different eras of the game. But JB12's also perfectly correct. You can try to dissect or qualify his points all you want. But what he hit on were a couple major contributing reasons for the '07 team's failures to do better.

[Tbadder]

I've been saying this since last season, the Crew needs better starting pitching. Now that many of the problems (except lefthanded bat with high OBP) have been addressed Dougie needs to find a near ace. Probably too hard to obtain though.

 

I think Briggs makes some salient points, none of us has all the answers outside of buying A-Rod and trading for Santana.

[lukevan]

But what he hit on were a couple major contributing reasons for the '07 team's failures to do better.

 

 

 

Except that this thread was framed as though the Brewers didn't address a real need by adding Cameron, which is what I think we're all taking exception with.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Where do I start. Except for acquiring a #2 type of a starter (extremely expensive) the Brewers and Doug Melvin have done what they set out to do. DM has reconstructed the bullpen, it will be better than last year (barring injuries) IMO. The Brewer defense has been DRAMATICALLY improved. a GG in CF, a decent 3b now at 3b and Braun is in LF. Oh 1 more point Estrada is gone and that ridiculous plate approach he had, that guy would swing at the first pitch even if the pitcher had just walked the bases loaded. 1 final point, we still have some pitching we could deal. All in all I would say, not bad DM.

 

Not sure what the expectations were for this off-season but I am JACKED for the season and can't wait to use my 20 pack this year!!!!

 

 

GO BREW!!

[twobrewers]

Why should the 2008 Brewer's road to success have to follow the 1982 Brewer's road to success?

 

Teams need to win ball games - how they go about doing that is almost irrelevant. You can pitch better than your opponents. (Padres) You can score more than your opponents. (Yankees) Or you can do both. (Red Sox)

 

I am amazed at how many people are raining on this parade. I can't fathom anyway that Cameron makes the Brewers worse.

 

I am not trying to be rude, but it must be really hard for some people to be a fan when almost every move upsets them in someway.

[Brian the Automator]

I am amazed at how many people are raining on this parade. I can't fathom anyway that Cameron makes the Brewers worse.

Well, he could catch tuberculosis and infect the entire team.

[Ennder]

There is pretty much nothing statistically valid in what the original post said. Yes a single is worth more than a BB because it also adds to SLG, it isn't AVG that is making a team better though, it is the fact by getting AVG you also raise SLG and OBP and OPS. LAD hit .275 and it didn't magically make their R/G better than the Padres who hit .251 with more power.

 

 

 

The team had two huge needs from last year.

 

 

 

#1 was team defense. We had the 3rd best FIP in the NL but the 8th best RA/G and the 3rd worst plus/minus rating. This isn't some mirage that you can do away with by looking at unearned runs alone since defense means way more than that. Cameron in probably a small upgrade from Jenkins in LF, Braun in LF is probably about even with Hall in CF. Hall at 3B is a HUGE upgrade over Braun at 3B.

 

 

 

#2 was OBP. Yes raising the AVG would raise this but so would taking more BB's, doesn't really matter which path we take to get it. Estrada, Jenkins and Mench are gone and they had OBP's of .296, .319 and .305 last year so they are addition by subraction. Hall had an OBP of .315 which most think will go up since that is lower than his previous 2 seasons. Kendall most likely is an upgrade over Estrada's .296. Cameron is a pretty big upgrade over Jenkins/Mench. A full year of a healthy Weeks could help a ton as well. We didn't get the slam dunk OBP guy that we hoped for but it should be stronger than it was last year.

[Ennder]

Why do my posts keep doublespacing like that and then if I go back to edit the post to try to single space it shows up as one big block of text with no spacing at all. Seems to happen about every 3rd post or so and is most annoying.

[TheCrew07]

That seems to happen to me with the quick reply... If I use the add reply it seems to space it normally. I just noticed that over on Lambeauleap.net

[brewers19]

It's a problem with the new post editor settings that Yuku recently rolled out. You can make it go away if you 'edit' (without actually changing anything) the affected post.

[TerraceReserved]

I've been saying this since last season, the Crew needs better starting pitching. Now that many of the problems (except lefthanded bat with high OBP) have been addressed Dougie needs to find a near ace. Probably too hard to obtain though.

Wow, really? I'd argue the complete opposite, we have one of the best rotations in the NL and proven depth when injuries strike.

[TooLiveBrew]

Our pitching is made to look much worse by our D, though. Some people don't recognize how big of an impact it has (sorry, TBadder - not trying to be mean to ya), and just felt that our P struggled a bunch last year.

 

I can't believe this thread title. I don't even need to explain why, even to JohnBriggs.