Brian Roberts not traded to Cubs: Latest - Dead, according to the O's

[Klements Bratwurst]

I still don't know why the Orioles wouldn't just wait for more suitors. Brian Roberts is a nice player, and a fan favorite, but all you hear about is how the Cubs are hot after this guy. He has two years left on his contract, so I still imagine the Orioles could do OK waiting until the trade deadline when there might be many more suitors other than the Cubs and their current offer as reported of Gallagher, Cedeno, another minor league arm with moderate upside.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, Roberts is reportedly Angelos's favorite (or a favorite) player... and the Cubs' reported offers haven't exactly been quality. From the reports, it seems like the Cubs are trying to dump some excess baggage on the O's in exchange for what's likely their best player. So far, I'm not surprised that there's been no agreement.

[Milltownhooker]

Roberts is under control threw 09. So no fear about losing him to free agency. The Cubs will need to step up those offers.

[Milltownhooker]

According to the Chicago-Tribune Cus have increased their offer to Ceda, Veal, Gallager, & Cedeno.

[Klements Bratwurst]

In reading the comments on MLB trade rumors about this from Cub fans, not too many are excited about this proposal. There is still some guy that says that Marquis is in the deal making it a 5-2 deal with Jay Payton and of course Roberts coming to the Cubs.

So it could be Ceda, Veal, Gallagher, Cedeno, & Marquis (along with cash) for Roberts and Payton.

This would thin out the Cubs starting rotation options a bit for sure, not to mention the future, but we know they can buy their way out of that.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

According to the Chicago-Tribune Cus have increased their offer to Ceda, Veal, Gallager, & Cedeno.

So by offering more crap, Jim Hendry craftily plans to get yet another offer rejected. Honestly, a fringe prospect SP, a no-hit SS, a RP 'prospect', and a SP prospect that walks guys like it's his job (Veal). I'm sure that adding even more crap (Marquis) to this crap-heap will make it better!

[Fear The Chorizo]

So they're willing to trade their backup SS (who probably could be their starter over Theriot even though both are iffy) and 3 of their more promising pitching prospects for ANOTHER second baseman?

sign me up for that one - especially when a month into the season everyone realizes that Lilly and the back end of their rotation aren't as good as they showed in 2007. The top of their lineup would be stacked, though.

Roberts is good, but he's not a shortstop, and if acquiring him means trading away a shortstop and young pitching depth, it's not going to be doomsday for Brewer fans. The Cubs still would have big question marks at short, center, right, and behind the plate.

[DrWood]

supposedly Veal is a legitimate prospect. They could probably get it done by swapping Marshall for Gallagher in the offer.

[DrWood]

I don't think Theriot can be considered a big question mark, nor Kosuke. Pie is. Soto is, but imo, less so than pie right now.

[endaround]

Yep Theriot isn't a question mark, he's definitely bad

[Oldcity]

Yep Theriot isn't a question mark, he's definitely bad

Crap, you beat me to the punch.

[splitterpfj]

Jayson Stark says the "Angelos Factor" is now in play, meaning the Cubs are getting frustrated, because the O's won't give them a straight answer on what it would take to get this deal done.

[Gopher74]

So by offering more crap, Jim Hendry craftily plans to get yet another offer rejected. Honestly, a fringe prospect SP, a no-hit SS, a RP 'prospect', and a SP prospect that walks guys like it's his job (Veal). I'm sure that adding even more crap (Marquis) to this crap-heap will make it better!

He hit .359 with a .422 OBP last year in AAA at age 24, and the year before that, he hit .355 with a .403 OBP at age 22 in AAA. I don't understand how you can be so high on Pie, who never had his success in AAA, and call him a "no-hit SS". And he is a very good defensive Shortstop.

 

The other three are three good pitching prospects. At least they're pretty highly ranked pitchers. That's about equal to Gwynn if he played short(which would make him clearly more valuable), Jeffress, Gamel and Gillispie. It may not be enough for Angelos, but to call it crap and use the dreaded "blue font" doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Cedeno had a BABIP over .400 last year at AAA (282 AB, age 24). Pie at age 21 (2006) put up .282/.341/.451/.792 at AAA, with a much more realistic/useful BABIP number - .342... yes, high, but not that far from a normal range of variance for a good hitter playing at AAA.

 

We now have nearly 700 MLB AB for Cedeno (age 25 for 2008), with a BABIP of .295. His career line is .247/.277/.349/.626. The guy can't hit.

[Klements Bratwurst]

According to the Ivy board on the Scout.com forums, the Roberts deal is dead, but wait, not dead, but dead again, but then today, Bruce Levine on AM 1000 says that since the Cubs acquired a Centerfielder it now frees up all their prospects to go after Roberts again before Opening Day. He says it will happen again.

 

Don't they get tired of saying that it will happen????

[molitor fan]

On a tangential note, since you brought up Bruce Levine.....I ran into Levine at the end of the Cubs/Brewers game at HoHoKam on March 4th, and talked baseball with him for 15 minutes or so - just an incredibly nice guy. Along with Jim Powell and Cecil Cooper, one of the nicest baseball related guys I have ever run into.

[don1481]

Baltimore's president of baseball operations says Roberts trade is off the table

Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told reporters in Ft. Lauderdale Wednesday that a Brian Roberts deal with the Cubs is off the table.

"We worked at it this long and we don't have deal," MacPhail said. "There's other sides characterizing it as an impasse. You make the judgment."

The Cubs have privately been saying Wednesday what MacPhail just laid out for the media. They feel they've done everything possible to acquire Roberts, but after nearly four months of stalemated talks, there's no reason to believe a deal could happen by Opening Day.

I hope MacPhail isn't bluffing here... I love it when the Cubs don't get what they want!

[Gopher74]

Cedeno had a BABIP over .400 last year at AAA (282 AB, age 24). Pie at age 21 (2006) put up .282/.341/.451/.792 at AAA, with a much more realistic/useful BABIP number - .342... yes, high, but not that far from a normal range of variance for a good hitter playing at AAA.

 

We now have nearly 700 MLB AB for Cedeno (age 25 for 2008), with a BABIP of .295. His career line is .247/.277/.349/.626. The guy can't hit.

Wait a second. So you're saying he had an inflated BABIP? So what? So did Pie as you mentioned. Even if he had the same BABIP as Pie, he'd of had put up better numbers. His numbers have blown Pie's out of the water.

 

But why don't we go back to 05 when he put up a .355/.403 line in AAA at age 22? Cedeno just turned 25, so he put up those numbers getting irregular playing time at ages 22-23 and 24. You're just not being consistent by saying that Pie's this great player, and Cedeno is a "no-hit shortstop". Not when Pie put up a .215/.271 line last year in the big leagues. And again, if you want to use minor league numbers, Cendeno blows him out of the water.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

You're just not being consistent by saying that Pie's this great player, and Cedeno is a "no-hit shortstop".

 

I'm not saying Pie's "this great player" yet. Cedeno is, though, by MLB standards a no-hit SS. There remains no question about that imo.

 

Not when Pie put up a .215/.271 line last year in the big leagues. And again, if you want to use minor league numbers, Cendeno blows him out of the water.

Alright, Pie's MLB sample: 177 AB. Cedeno's sample: 688 AB. It's not even close to being a relevant comparison. Perhaps with a few more AB Ronny could improve his line, but to this point there's not much reason to expect it.

 

Pie's minors line: 2190 AB, .300/.358/.468/.826

Cedeno's line: 2044 AB, .276/.329/.395/.724

 

I have no idea what you're arguing here, outside of the fact that Pie has had some good luck (regarding BABIP), too.

[Gopher74]

I'm not saying Pie's "this great player" yet. Cedeno is, though, by MLB standards a no-hit SS. There remains no question about that imo.

 

An awful large number of players who went on to have absolutely fantastic career's would have been written off at a young age using the criteria you use. And as for Pie, you've argued time and time again on here that you think he's going to have a very good year and be a very good player. I'm trying to figure out why you think he's going to be so great despite not putting up the numbers in the minors that Cedeno did, and having even less success in the big leagues?

Alright, Pie's MLB sample: 177 AB. Cedeno's sample: 688 AB. It's not even close to being a relevant comparison. Perhaps with a few more AB Ronny could improve his line, but to this point there's not much reason to expect it.

 

It's not a relevant comparison? It's about using two different standards. It's about diminishing what Cedeno is at the same time talking about how good you think Pie will be, despite the fact that the only difference between the two, is a few hundred more AB's for Cedeno.

 

As for the lines you put up, those are pretty obviously skewed. What difference does it make what Cedeno did in Low and High A ball when he had a great deal of success at the upper levels? Are you arguing that those levels are more telling? Because that's what giving me his aggregate stats says. If a player struggles in Rookie Ball, but then has a couple exceptional seasons in AA and AAA, you don't use the overall stats, you use the ones more pertinent to the discussion.

I have no idea what you're arguing here

 

I apologize, I tried to make it very clear. I'm arguing that you're wrong. I think that you're being incredibly unfair and unrealistic on your assessment of the 4 players the Cubs proposed in their deal by calling them "garbage". Wait...I'm sorry, "crap".

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm trying to figure out why you think he's going to be so great despite not putting up the numbers in the minors that Cedeno did, and having even less success in the big leagues?

 

Substantiate that first claim, please... and what's the relevance of the second unless you're comfortable with less than 200 AB as a good gauge of what to expect? I'll take Pie's superior production any day of the week.

 

And as for Pie, you've argued time and time again on here that you think he's going to have a very good year and be a very good player.

 

You're right, I think he's going to be a good one. I don't think he's going to be an all-time great or anything though.

[Gopher74]

Substantiate that first claim, please... and what's the relevance of the second unless you're comfortable with less than 200 AB as a good gauge of what to expect? I'll take Pie's superior production any day of the week.

 

 

You're right, I think he's going to be a good one. I don't think he's going to be an all-time great or anything though.

Substantiate what? Their minor league numbers? Since we've both posted them, and clearly both know what they are, I hardly see the point to go back and lay them out here for you. We've posted all the numbers. Going back and forth and posting the same things over and over again isn't really productive.

 

And the relevance of the second? Seriously? I think I just did that about 3 times in my last post. You call one player "crap" despite possessing much more value from a defensive standpoint, and having approx the same success in the big leagues(which doesn't count at all because we're talking about a few hundred AB's apparently) and you think that the other is going to be a "good one".

 

The "relevance" is your inconsistency.

 

But we're getting too hung up on one aspect of the trade....likely the one of the four with the LEAST amount of value...the trade you again summed up as "crap".

[TooLiveBrew]

Substantiate what? Their minor league numbers? Since we've both posted them, and clearly both know what they are, I hardly see the point to go back and lay them out here for you.

So we can agree that Pie's numbers are far superior.

And the relevance of the second? Seriously? I think I just did that about 3 times in my last post. You call one player "crap" despite possessing much more value from a defensive standpoint, and having approx the same success in the big leagues(which doesn't count at all because we're talking about a few hundred AB's apparently) and you think that the other is going to be a "good one".

 

No, I'm basing my analysis off of more than some hunches. Pie is a solid defensive player, too. To boot, he's outproduced Cedeno, except for your favorite 177 AB of his career.

 

I see no way in which Cedeno possesses any more value than Craig Counsell.

 

Seriously, show me my inconsistency without contradicting yourself. You're still telling me that Cedeno has outperformed Pie? It's just not true.

[Gopher74]

So we can agree that Pie's numbers are far superior.

 

Of course. The numbers that you want to include for this particular discussion. Not the .215/.271...only the ones that show him in a positive light.

No, I'm basing my analysis off of more than some hunches. Pie is a solid defensive player, too. To boot, he's outproduced Cedeno, except for your favorite 177 AB of his career.

And AAA, but all the sudden the low minors started to count for more than big league AB's, and Minor League AB's. And he may be a "solid defensive player to", but one's a CF'er and one is a SS. The SS has far more value.

Seriously, show me my inconsistency without contradicting yourself. You're still telling me that Cedeno has outperformed Pie? It's just not true.

 

How have I contradicted myself once? You've dug into this argument because your arguments about this trade in an attempt to make the Cubs look stupid contradicted past statements about Pie. You've got one set of evaluations for one player, Pie, and another for Cedeno. You can't blast Cedeno and call him crap and at the same time say that Pie's going to be a "very good player" when he's done absolutely nothing to distinguish himself from Cedeno.

I see no way in which Cedeno possesses any more value than Craig Counsell.

 

Really? So since we're speaking in terms of trade value here, you're telling me that Ronny Cedeno has the same trade value as Craig Counsell? Wow. I think I've heard all I need to hear on this one.

 

 

Again, getting to the larger point that you continue to ignore, Veal, Gallagher, Marshall and Cedeno are not "crap", even if you chose to beleive that Counsell has the same value as Cedeno for whatever reason.

[TooLiveBrew]

I understand that you're taking issue with my semantics on calling a decent group of players "crap". You're right, they're not "crap" - I just think that it's a crappy offer to try & land one of the best players in the game (when position is taken into account).

 

I've just never encountered you being so firmly attached to a tiny sample of ABs (> 200) like this. It just doesn't make any sense to tie your whole argument surrounding Pie to his first 177 ABs at MLB. Tell you what, you take Cedeno, and I'll take Pie. Something tells me (maybe it's his hundreds of successful PAs in the minors) that Felix will be the better player, and something tells me that it'll be clear this year. Who knows though, heck, in terms of being a Brewers fan, I hope I'm wrong!