how long will the Brewers window be open?

[jason21nl]

I didn't know how to word the title because I'm really tired. I couldn't fall asleep because I was thinking how long do the Brewers have before their window closes to win. With the young guys all here, Id say they have 1-3 years to win before guys start to move on. What happens if they don't win in this time period? Will there be a very very long drought? might we never contend for a world series ever again? Man, I hope thats not the case, but I can see it happening. What does everyone think on that. Honest, unbiased, check your heart at the door answers.

 

 

like I said, I'm tired, I can't sleep

[TooLiveBrew]

My guess is 3-5 years. Honestly, even without Prince (not timing, just considering loss of the player), the team is still going to be really good. If you can lock up a guy like Hart long-term, I think that's a brilliant move. Weeks, Fielder, and Braun will all probably have to be let go eventually, and Hardy might become a very valuable trading chip in a few years, but prioritize keeping Gallardo, Villanueva, Hart, LaPorta, Parra (if he pans out in MLB) and maybe one of the aforementioned four, and that team would have to suffer a lot of injuires to be below-average.

[derflotr]

As long as Melvin, Attanasio & co. are around, I'll stay optimistic.

[sbrylski]

I think with smart management, we can last a decade. We aren't going to lose all our guys to free agency, some will be traded for some nice prospect hauls. Throw in a hefty supply of comp picks over the years and hopefully a long term contract for a core player or two, we should do okay. The A's lasted 8+ seasons on a minimal payroll, and ours is really no longer that small; We are middle of the pack now. Eventually you'll hit a bit of bad luck with development or injuries or what have you, and we'll be forced to tear down completely and start over, but for now I see 6+ years of competitiveness.

[logan82]

I would say as long as we keep our payroll in the middle of the pack and have good management we should have a chance to stay compeitive. We are still only a couple bad contracts from being hamstrung though. With a decent minor league system you can keep backups to cover that. If you are talking about our current roster, I think we have 3-5 years before we go through a huge roster turnover. I think by that 5th year every current player will either be a free agent or in their final year of arbitration, baring longer contracts of course. If we keep the system stocked, I see no reason we shouldn't be able to limit the damage of losing any of our current core players.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hope our player development is the #1 priority right now behind the MLB squad. It seems like the perfect time (& perhaps necessary) to re-stock the farm. Take the Marlins' style and tone it down... even though it's going to suck when Prince, Braun, etc. leave, they can help to keep the system as a whole competitive.

[Gopher74]

I hope our player development is the #1 priority right now behind the MLB squad. It seems like the perfect time (& perhaps necessary) to re-stock the farm. Take the Marlins' style and tone it down... even though it's going to suck when Prince, Braun, etc. leave, they can help to keep the system as a whole competitive.

Yea, I'm in total agreement. I don't see why we can't put together a run like the Twins did. I think we're going to see waves in which we're more likely to win a WS. We may have a 3-5 year run here in which we win 90+ games ever year and then lose a couple players and "only" be a 85 win team or so for a couple years, then put together another run.

 

The key is keeing Jack Z as long as possible. I'd actually rather see us keep him and promote him to be our GM whenever a team is seriously interested in hiring him to be their GM(Which I'll predict will be next season, as I was shocked the Pirates didn't do it last season) then lose him and have Doug continue on.

 

I'm sure I'm in the minority there, and perhaps his effectiveness would be limited if his duties were split up from just scouting, but he's been such a godsend to our franchise, I just don't want to see him go.

 

But I think the biggest thing is how we develop our arms. I'd much rather see us put most of our money into keeping our offensive players rather than spend a ton on a pitcher(Obviously a guy like Gallardo may be the exception) simply because there is less projection with a hitter. With a pitcher, they can vary so much from year to year, or godforbid suffer an injury, and the Milwaukee Brewers are not, and will not ever be a team that could stay competitive with a 15 million dollar a year pitcher spending a year and a half on the DL ala Chris Carpenter.

 

So I think the keys are making sure we sign the right player(IMO, Weeks and Hart are going to be two of the "right players) and really the next two drafts are going to be absolutely huge. Right now I'd rank our farm system somewhere from 6-10. I think that with as many as 10-12 picks in the first two rounds the next two seasons, plus the fact that most of our good prospects are in the lower level's meaning we're not going to bring up anywhere near the same number of players in the next 2-3 seasons, that we could find ourselves with the number 1 farm system in just a few short years. If you can do that, and have another wave ready when this group starts to thin out due to Free Agency, only keeping the players for which you don't have a good prospect coming up, then I think we could keep a very large window.

 

Of course a couple injuries and a couple bad contracts, and our window could slam shut at just about anytime, but that's not gonna happen!

[ILuvDaBush]

Also remember that the Brewers' chances are dependent upon the success of the rest of our division. The Reds have some good young prospects and the Cubs, once they have new ownership, are guaranteed to become a big player, ala The Red Sox. And while I agree that Jack has been a very keen evaluator of talent through the draft, I would argue that Melvin has been an even more astute evaluator...

 

"Hey, I have a Wayne Franklin bobblehead... (Pause) Yeah, THAT Wayne Franklin. (Pause) Well he pitched for us this year... (Pause) I just want that young kid, Charlie, and some fodder for my farm."

 

"Yeah, I have a mint Richie Sexson bobblehead. Not a nick on it at all. (Pause) Well I want that young kid, George, you just traded Curt Schilling for... That young PITCHER who is just now getting healthy after surgery. (Pause) Yeah, that lefty with the Econ degree from Duke. (Pause) I need someone to do my taxes and the Brewz need a delegate for the Players' Assoc. So we'll take George, Chris, Spivey, Chad. (Pause) Well we have a lot of holes...and I wasn't finished. George, Chris, Spivey, Chad, Craig....and we're going to need a replacement until our Franchise player in A-Ball arrives so if you would be so kind as to send over that Lyle kid who hit .350 in AAA, I think we'll be done here."

[Gopher74]

Also remember that the Brewers' chances are dependent upon the success of the rest of our division. The Reds have some good young prospects and the Cubs, once they have new ownership, are guaranteed to become a big player, ala The Red Sox. And while I agree that Jack has been a very keen evaluator of talent through the draft, I would argue that Melvin has been an even more astute evaluator...

I don't know that you can just assume whoever buy's the Cubs are going to spend like crazy. I mean, honestly, how much more money are they going to be able to spend? They've already got a ton of money locked up right now for the next few years in just a handful of guys.

 

As for Melvin vs Jack Z's role in our recent resurgence, I suppose you really could argue that either way, and without knowing who played what role in each draft choice since Melvin came, it'd be a tough argument to make either way, I just assume that Jack Z's done the majority of drafting since he'd already begun to put together a fantastic farm system before Melvin even got here. And clearly I think the draft has been a far bigger factor in our success than trades of FA signings.

[Ennder]

The window is open for at least 3 more years, not sure why you would say 1-3. We are not going to suddenly start to lose the young guys next season. The one big player we might lose next season is Sheets but hopefully Parra stays healthy again this year and we still have a solid pitching core of Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra.

 

It will all depend on how they handle the young guys when they approach free agency. If they make a mistake, overpay the wrong guy or get the wrong players in trade etc then the window closes. If they do a good job with that then it stays open a while longer.

 

The Astros have a bad farm system and a poorly constructed team. The Pirates are not in very good shape. The Cubs minor league system is average but they do have the most money in the division so they can buy a competitive team. The Cardinals are pretty ugly right now though they should have some money for a rebuilding project in the next year or two. The Reds are really the team that scares me the most long term, they have an outstanding minor league system.

 

The divisional window is probably open for 2 years or so. I'd expect by 2010 the Reds will be really good, the Cubs will still be good, the Cardinals will have rebuilt. I think the Astros are gonna be fighting with the Pirates for last place for a while now though.

[Tbadder]

Not this year, but the two years after that. If lightning strikes we could get back to the World Series, and be the next National League sacrificial lamb. After that money rears it's ugly head and we should be doomed.

[Fatter than Joey]

Honest, unbiased, check your heart at the door answers.

 

With that in mind....

 

With the young guys all here, Id say they have 1-3 years to win before guys start to move on.

 

I think the only guy that would "move on" in 1 year would be Ned Yost. I also think that the NL Central is going to be the worst division for only 1-2 years at the most. However I think our core group of players is going to be here for at least 3 years.

 

The A's lasted 8+ seasons on a minimal payroll, and ours is really no longer that small; We are middle of the pack now.

Yep -- I agree -- The only note I would make, is that as it stands today, I do not think the Brewers have done a very good job building pitching depth. We have some great mashers/butchers, but I'd feel better if we restocked the pitching shelf.

 

The Reds are really the team that scares me the most long term, they have an outstanding minor league system.

Agreed 100% -- They really have a nice balance of players.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't believe in windows. If you focus on any given period of time as "your time", you miss opportunities.

 

 

 

The Brewers had a huge chance in 2006 but in part because their focus was a year or two down the road, they didn't capitalize.

[brewcrewreview]

The Brewer window for tickets right now is open from 9-5 Monday through Friday. Once tickets for the regular season go on sale, there will be extended hours.

[TooLiveBrew]

The key is keeing Jack Z as long as possible. I'd actually rather see us keep him and promote him to be our GM whenever a team is seriously interested in hiring him to be their GM(Which I'll predict will be next season, as I was shocked the Pirates didn't do it last season) then lose him and have Doug continue on.

 

I'm sure I'm in the minority there, and perhaps his effectiveness would be limited if his duties were split up from just scouting, but he's been such a godsend to our franchise, I just don't want to see him go.

 

I feel similarly about Jack, but I'm not sure whether or not I'd want to fire Melvin to promote him to GM. If Melvin were legitimately fired, I'd sure look at him to replace, though. I'm with you - surprised that Pit. didn't hire Jack this offseason. I'm highly skeptical that we'll be able to hang on to him past the 2008 season, but obviously hope otherwise.

[Big Reed]

I think the brewers can maintain 85 wins for the next decade. however, I believe 90 wins is what it wil take to win the division in the very near future. To win 90 games is not easy. you have to be able to field a winning record on the road. you have to win the close games. and you have to have 4-8 game winning streaks. you can't just win 2 and lose 1 every series. i thought our window of opportunity was last year. hopefully that window remains open. I see the Cubs as the biggest threat. the reds, cards, astros all have talent, but the Cubs are the team that has the financial flexibility to go out and buy a star if they needed one. The brewers' biggest drawbac k is that they can't just go out and acquire a mega star at the trade deadline without giving up their farm system to do so. and melvin has not been inclined to give up his top prospects for a rent a star. On the other hand, the Cubs could acquire a guy like Santana next July and not worry about what minor leageu player they give up to acquire him. the Cubs would also have no heartburn picking up a guy like rolen or roberts and taking on his entire contract.

 

 

 

Something to consider about all those core players you expect will leave as part of free agency. if melvin is doing his job properly, he'll be trading those core players most likely for prospects 1-2 years before they become free agents. So that core of players will be leaving 1-2 years earlier than you expect, and it will be time to rebuild once more. the window of opportunity is smaller than you realize.

[Gopher74]

and you have to have 4-8 game winning streaks. you can't just win 2 and lose 1 every series.

Actually winning 2 of 3 would give you 107 wins. Not sure why that wouldn't be enough.

 

[hauser42]

With this core group we are looking at 5 years with other younger players being added to the mix as we go on. Melvin and the front office keep doing their job of keeping the rosters stock from the minors to the big league club.

 

Mark A and Doug may decide that one of these players will be the face of the franchise and pay that player to keep him around for a very extended period. IMO it has to be Prince or Braun. I'm also not a believer that Prince will be leaving for a big market and all the BS that comes with it. He is a very quiet guy that has dealt with enough stuff from what is his father has done and I dont see him wanting all the limelight even it costs him money. He saw first hand that money doesn't bring you happiness.

[Gopher74]

With this core group we are looking at 5 years with other younger players being added to the mix as we go on. Melvin and the front office keep doing their job of keeping the rosters stock from the minors to the big league club.

 

Mark A and Doug may decide that one of these players will be the face of the franchise and pay that player to keep him around for a very extended period. IMO it has to be Prince or Braun. I'm also not a believer that Prince will be leaving for a big market and all the BS that comes with it. He is a very quiet guy that has dealt with enough stuff from what is his father has done and I dont see him wanting all the limelight even it costs him money. He saw first hand that money doesn't bring you happiness.

While this is all totally pointless at this point, I think that Rickie Weeks could well end up being the player that it's most important for us to keep. I think this year is the year he breaks out and puts himself squarely in their group in terms or both importance to our team(actually, I think that's been shown the last couple years that his success is critical to our teams success) and in terms of numbers. I see him being a .390+ OB guy scoring 125+ runs and 25/25.

 

Prince given the fact that he's a Scott Boras client, that he's a bigger guy who's more susceptible to injury issues(Mo Vaughn) and that he's going to get a monster deal, I don't see it being real likely that he's with our club for more than a year or two after the 6 we control him for, and even that's probably not likely.

 

But the whole point is that's not going to kill us if we continue to build the right way. Just thinking about that right now you're going to have LaPorta taking his place, and hopefully you'll get a couple of those younger OF'ers to develop to take his place. A guy like Brewer is likely going to end up in the OF, maybe CF, plus whoever. So provided we just keep drafting well, we'll be able to withstand losing some players as long as we don't give the very few big deals we can afford to the wrong players. I could see Prince being worthy of a 18 million dollars a year to 22 million a year, and for a guy who could very easily get hurt, that may not be the best use of funds.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yikes. By the time Prince is a bona-fide FA, he could very realistically get $25 mil./year or more. To borrow from doa, oof!

[ILuvDaBush]

Perhaps this question deserves its own thread, but who do you guys think has a higher ceiling, Braun or Weeks?

[Fatter than Joey]

Braun

[Ennder]

If you go by positional value I'd say Weeks. If both played the same position I'd go with Braun but it would be closer than people think.

[LouisEly]

As others have mentioned, I think the key is going to be making the right decisions about which players to keep and which ones to let go. I would agree that if Prince keeps hitting 50+ per year (ignoring the fact that he's what, 23, and might actually get even better... scary thought) the contract that he would get on the market would handcuff this team so he's probably one to let go and take the Type A comp picks (unless someone offers some stud prospects). Which reminds me of another thing - I think Melvin is good about knowing that you don't trade someone just because you don't think they will be signed; I think he's good about evaluating the potential of players offered in a trade versus the potential of players that the draft picks could return (i.e. no Florie/Newfield/Villone for Greg Vaughn). With that in mind, I think 5 years is the window of time... but they better get some stud pitching prospects in the next two drafts because after Parra there's a lot of mediocre pitching in the farm system.

[Gopher74]

Perhaps this question deserves its own thread, but who do you guys think has a higher ceiling, Braun or Weeks?

Weeks.