Pat Burrell

[Gopher74]

The subject of Pat Burrell came up on another board, so I thought I'd throw it out there and see what people think about possibly trading for him.

 

It seems like no player in all of baseball is as irrationally hated as much as "Pat the Bat" Burrell. Yea, I realize that he's a poor defender, though this is a prime example why I don't believe that defensive metrics are that reliable because while he doesn't cover a lot of ground, he's got a very strong arm, he plays balls off the wall and in the corner as well as just about any OF'er in the game, and his range isn't "as bad" as people say. In fact, I believe playing in a sandbox has caused his defensive stats to be poorer than they truly are. For example, he does and always has played shallow, even relative to the park allowing him less room for error, and causing balls to get past him, thus lowering his RF's and other defensive metrics.

 

Mainly I think the reason people bash him is because of that antiquated notion that strikeouts are the worst thing in baseball, and that any players who strikes out a lot, even if he has a .688 OBP is garbage.

 

Pro's

-Has a great OBP. .400, .389, .388 the last three years.

-Has very good power. 32,29,30 HR's the last three years, and SLG pct of .500+ each of those seasons.

-Obviously the result is a very good OPS. .902/.893/.890 the last three years.

-Has a very strong arm

-Would fit into our lineup perfectly. While lacking great speed, having someone who gets on base 40 pct of the time in front of Braun and Prince would be huge.

-In touching on the last argument, he leads the league, or is among league leaders in pitchers per PA every season. Giving Weeks more pitchers to run on can't do anything but help, and between Weeks, Burrell, and Prince wearing out pitchers, we can hopefully get to them earlier.

-Also, and this is the same argument I used for Beltre, but the guy is an absolutely fantastic fastball hitter. I have to think that with Rickie on 1st base, and with Braun and Prince hitting behind him, and his ability to draw so many walks, he'd see more fastballs in Milwaukee in the 2 hole than he saw in Philly in the 5 hole. Most fastballs for a great fastball hitter equals more production.

-He's got a one year contract meaning that Matt LaPorta's spot would be kept warm for him, but he wouldn't be blocked.

 

Con's

-He's not a 3rd basemen. Clearly that's our biggest need. No question about it. A players worth is greatly diminished if they can't solve the largest remaining issue with our team.

-He does not have great range in LF. Actually, he's got poor range. Of course, I'm of the belief that while it's poor, it's not as bad as the Sabr people will suggest. Some people have suggested he's a inferior LF'er to Luis Gonzalez. That I find laughable, but some think so. Either way, we can agree, he's poor.

-He does K a lot. For a guy in the number 2 hole, it'd be ideal if he had a great OBP, AND he could make good contact so that when he didn't get on base, he was at least moving Weeks over.

-He makes 14 million dollars. That is a significant chunk of money for the cash conscious Milwaukee Brewers.

-He bats right handed, again, we were looking for a left hander in a perfect world.

-He'd be going from what has to be the best offensive park in the game to an average one.

 

 

I guess overall, it just seems like he'd be a great player to target. And again, this is in the fantasy world where our online trades mean anything, but I'd like to see us offer Tony Gwynn Jr and Claudio Vargas. I guess it's incredibly difficult for me to gauge what his worth may be. The Phils seemingly always are looking to deal him, and he's always popping up in trade rumors for peanuts just to dump payroll. Now I'd personally think he's be worth much more. I don't understand why Adam Dunn is so highly sought after while Burrell's good for nothing.

 

So like I said, it's tough to figure what they may want for him. Perhaps a deal like that would be enough. Perhaps they'd want a better starter such as Bush or Cappy. I highly doubt it'd take Parra or Villanueva.

 

Now in a really perfect world, you'd put Burrell in RF, Braun in LF, Hart in CF, and move Hall to 3rd.

 

Now that may look on the surface to be a very poor defensive OF, however, I think that it'd actually end up being just fine. At least average. I think that Burrell can handle RF despite his below average range on the strength of his above average arm. I think that Hart is more than capable of handling the job in Center Field and with a full season will become an above average CF'er given his speed and height. And finally, I think that Braun's physical ability, speed, and arm will allow him to transition to LF with relative ease. Perhaps Braun could/should play RF and Burrell playing LF. And then we'd move Hall back to 3rd base. I'd have to think, especially when you use Hall's defense from last season in CF given his early season struggles that this defensive lineup would have to represent a huge upgrade overall in defense with Braun moving to the OF, and even if it was only a marginal upgrade, the offensive upgrade from Burrell to Jenkins and Mench makes it more than worth it.

 

 

 

So that's my sales pitch on Pat Burrell. What are everyone else's thoughts?

[Oldcity]

I like Burrell a lot, but I don't think he's at all available.

[danzig6767]

I highly doubt the Phillies are shopping Burrell as much as the media thinks, but if they did shop him, they would be able to fetch a hell of a lot more than two spare parts like Vargas and Gwynn.

[Gopher74]

I highly doubt the Phillies are shopping Burrell as much as the media thinks, but if they did shop him, they would be able to fetch a hell of a lot more than two spare parts like Vargas and Gwynn.

Yea, that's kinda what I was thinking. The SABR people on this board look at him and think he's worth far more than what has appeared to be the case in the recent past. They've tried trading him several times before in an attempt to dump salary, and he's supposedly vetoed those trade because he didn't want to leave Philly. I should have made a point of that in my initial post because that is another sticking point. He doesn't want to leave Philly.

 

As I said, I honestly don't know what his value is, but I'm inclined to think that it's not what his numbers would suggest based on those past trade attempts. Again, I don't see a huge difference between he and Dunn, yet Cincy would never try to dump Dunn in an attempt to cut payroll.

[logan82]

1) Braun isn't moving off of 3B unless we get an "established" 3B.

2) $14m for a minimal upgrade and defensive downgrade over Gross/Dillon in LF? No thanks.

3) I wouldn't count on LaPorta being in Milwaukee before late 2009(read Sept. callup) in a best case scenario.

[danzig6767]

The problem with rumors is often if a team did maybe explore trading a player, checking around if he could be used to fill a bigger need, the media hears about it and makes it out as if that team is trying hard to get rid of the player even if that's not at all the case.

 

The last few years the Phillies have been able to score runs, but pitching hasn't been a strength. Because of this, i wouldn't doubt if the Phillies have looked around to see if Burrell could be moved for pitching. That wouldn't have to mean the Phillies were looking hard to trade Burrell, but the media can easily make situations like that out to be them "actively shopping" him.

[Gopher74]

1) Braun isn't moving off of 3B unless we get an "established" 3B.

2) $14m for a minimal upgrade and defensive downgrade over Gross/Dillon in LF? No thanks.

3) I wouldn't count on LaPorta being in Milwaukee before late 2009(read Sept. callup) in a best case scenario.

1-Well see. I don't have any better abilities to tell the future than you, but I have to believe they're at least thinking about it. Of course everything Melvin tells the press is not always what ends up happening.

 

2-He's far more than a "minimal upgrade". He's a huge offensive upgrade.

 

3-I can't see how a "best case" scenario would have him coming up at the end of next year. I'd think a "best case" scenario would have him starting in AA this year, playing half a year there, half a year in AAA, and being ready next year. Definitely not a Sept callup. That's an off definition of "best case". Again, I don't have any powers to see into the future, but it's at least a distinct possibility that he's ready opening day 2009.

 

Ryan Braun came up after two years in the minors(2 years and change), and would have been ready to break camp with the team if he didn't struggle so much defensively. Defensive struggles in LF are less likely to keep a player from advancing than struggles at 3rd.

 

LaPorta put up better numbers in A ball than Braun and was in college for an extra year.

 

Does that mean he's going to move as fast as Braun, or be even close to the offensive force that Braun is? Of course not, but it certainly means that a best case scenario won't have him coming up when rosters expand.

 

 

[danzig6767]

1) Braun isn't moving off of 3B unless we get an "established" 3B.

2) $14m for a minimal upgrade and defensive downgrade over Gross/Dillon in LF? No thanks.

3) I wouldn't count on LaPorta being in Milwaukee before late 2009(read Sept. callup) in a best case scenario.

 

I wouldn't call what Burrell would bring offensively over Gross/Dillion a minimal upgrade. The odds that the combo of those two would post near a .390 OBP and .900 OPS are probably very slim. With that said, the odds are even slimmer than that of of trade for Burrell actually happening.

 

[Gopher74]

The problem with rumors is often if a team did maybe explore trading a player, checking around if he could be used to fill a bigger need, the media hears about it and makes it out as if that team is trying hard to get rid of the player even if that's not at all the case.

 

The last few years the Phillies have been able to score runs, but pitching hasn't been a strength. Because of this, i wouldn't doubt if the Phillies have looked around to see if Burrell could be moved for pitching. That wouldn't have to mean the Phillies were looking hard to trade Burrell, but the media can easily make situations like that out to be them "actively shopping" him.

Well, I was specifically talking about when the Phils dumped Abrea in a salary dump. And Gillick actually came up in the past and talked about moving Burrell, citing his salary as one of the problems in moving him, and his no trade clause as another.

 

Certainly the media can make something out of nothing, and with blogs and what not, trade rumors can come out of nowhere, but it's been no secret, even from within the Phils FO that they've tried to move Burrell just to move him. In fact, Gillick has even come out and said that as a result of the no trade clause he gave to Burrell and the problems from that, that he will not include a no trade clause into further contracts.

 

Again, it's entirely possible that since the team made a great run last year that they're in a different situation with Burrell. In fact, I'd guess they are, and it'd likely take Cappy at least to move him, but there was definitely a time where they just wanted to be rid of his contract.

[Tbadder]

I think you've analyzed the situation pretty well. It's just that the Cons outweigh the Pros in my book.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get the fascination with Burrell.

 

He's got a good OBP. So what? He usually bats 5th which is a run producing spot not a get on base spot and he strikes out a lot.

 

He hits some HR. Yeah in a bandbox. Still his career slugging is under .500.

 

He's got a good arm. But he's a terrible fielder who made 10 errors in LF last year.

 

He's also overpaid and righthanded. The only righthanded hitters the heavily righthanded Brewers should be looking at are guys that can hit right handed pitching and Burrell numbers against right handers are pedestrian (.252/.359/.465). There are guys on the street that could be had for much less that could outdo those numbers vs. righthanders.

[Fatter than Joey]

Ryan Braun came up after two years in the minors(2 years and change), and would have been ready to break camp with the team if he didn't struggle so much defensively. Defensive struggles in LF are less likely to keep a player from advancing than struggles at 3rd.

 

That and he got hurt. Braun missed like 2 weeks of Spring Training games. The other aspect was that Koskie was out and 3b was being manned by Counsell. If Koskie had been good to go -- Braun probably would have not seen the MLB until July or August.

 

Of course I agree defense is going to be less of an issue in bringing up LaPorta -- but he is not on the same hitting track as Braun. I think the earliest we will see LaPorta is the end of 2009.

[Big Reed]

But he has a great OBP. how can you not like him? Or are you trying to infer there are other things about a player that should be taken into consideration besides his great OBP stats? When I think of burell, I think of jenkins. it's as if they were twins in my eyes. the phillies fans and media are always complaining about burell not living up to his hype and their expectations of him. they say he is overpaid. he strikes out too much. it's interesting that he kos a lot but still maintains a high OBP. I guess he just looks at a lot of pitches like Thome does.

 

My bottom line is that i wouldn't mind signing burrell as a free agent, but i wouldn't want to trade for him. The phillies would want somebody at least as good as hall for him. And if it wasn't hall, they'd want one of our top 3 prospects for him. and once we did acquire him, he'd still never live up to the expectations of him.

[Gopher74]

Ryan Braun came up after two years in the minors(2 years and change), and would have been ready to break camp with the team if he didn't struggle so much defensively. Defensive struggles in LF are less likely to keep a player from advancing than struggles at 3rd.

 

That and he got hurt. Braun missed like 2 weeks of Spring Training games. The other aspect was that Koskie was out and 3b was being manned by Counsell. If Koskie had been good to go -- Braun probably would have not seen the MLB until July or August.

 

Of course I agree defense is going to be less of an issue in bringing up LaPorta -- but he is not on the same hitting track as Braun. I think the earliest we will see LaPorta is the end of 2009.

I don't why he's not on the same hitting track as of right now? I think the argument could be made that he's on a better hitting track. His OPS at the same level was nearly 100 points higher, and his last year in college LaPorta put up better numbers.

 

But, let's assume that he's not. So what? Nobody's expecting the kid to come in and be Ryan Braun. That's just not a realistic expectation for any rookie. Hell, that's not very realistic for any veteran.

 

And finally, in response to the Counsell comment, we very well could be in a situation next year where we don't have much better in LF.

[TooLiveBrew]

If it comes down to it, there are many options that are far superior to being in the neighborhood of Counsell for LF in 2008. The reason nothing's been moved on yet is that DM & Co. look to be holding out as long as they can in order to fill 3B as opposed to LF.

 

Burrell wouldn't be worth it for a few reasons imo - he'd cost something via trade, he wouldn't allow the Crew to maximize Braun's offense in LF, and Burrell himself is not a good fielder. Offensively, he fits the bill entirely. But the value of defense at 3B for me outweighs Burrell, plus whatever we'd have to give up to get him. He's a fine offensive player, though, to be sure.

[Oldcity]

When I think of burell, I think of jenkins. it's as if they were twins in my eyes.

Jenkins in '07 (in a platoon role): .255/.319/.471

Burrell in '07: .256/.400/.502

 

Jenkins Career: .277/.347/.496

Burrell Career: .258/.367/.482

Twins? Their career numbers aren't too different, but Burrell is clearly a different player. His batting eye is much better than Jenkins', and the last few years Jenkins' production hasn't been anywhere close to Burrell's.

 

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Plus Burrell can face like-handed pitching... .257/.374/.483/.857 v. RHP for his 3-yr. splits.

[DrWood]

burrell was probably highly available until the phillies got on fire, made the playoffs, then lost rowand, thinning out their OF.

hall and bush might get it done, but I don't know if that improves the brewers.

[endaround]

Burrell is only going somewhere that gives him a huge extension. He's really not an option.

[Gopher74]

burrell was probably highly available until the phillies got on fire, made the playoffs, then lost rowand, thinning out their OF.

hall and bush might get it done, but I don't know if that improves the brewers.

Yea, that's very possible. It's also possible that they're still willing to trade him and simply don't value him that highly. I don't know. Clearly though he's not "as" available now as he was last year.

 

Burrell is only going somewhere that gives him a huge extension. He's really not an option.

 

I thought that he his no trade clause expired the last year of his contract, similar to Suppan's which is only good for two years, and Dunn's which is also expired last year so that each team could trade each player their last season.

[ILuvDaBush]

You guys forget that Burrell was drafted out of the U as a 3B... But seriously, if we could get Pat the Bat for one year...ESPECIALLY after his finish to last year where he was putting up Rickie Weeks-since-the call-up(sans SB's)-numbers, I think most overestimate his availability. He almost single-handedly willed the Phils to the postseason. I'm a big Pat the Bat fan. The only thing that scares me is the no trade caluse and the type of extention expected.

[Gopher74]

You guys forget that Burrell was drafted out of the U as a 3B... But seriously, if we could get Pat the Bat for one year...ESPECIALLY after his finish to last year where he was putting up Rickie Weeks-since-the call-up(sans SB's)-numbers, I think most overestimate his availability. He almost single-handedly willed the Phils to the postseason. I'm a big Pat the Bat fan. The only thing that scares me is the no trade caluse and the type of extention expected.

Well, I think he was a big part of them making a post season run, but I certainly don't think he was even close to THE reason. He had a good OBP(.375) in Sept, but hit rather poorly(.209 BA), so I really don't think that they'd use the logic that he was a driving force in their post-season run as rationale not to trade him.

 

It's entirely possible though that I am in fact overrating his availability, HOWEVER, like I said, I thought that the no trade clause was only in effect the first five years and that there wasn't a no trade clause for year 5.

 

[endaround]

I couldn't find Burell's but I thought he had a full no trade.

 

 

 

Dunn didn't get a no trade until the Reds picked up his option.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm sure you checked Cot's, end, but all they have listed for Burrell is "full no trade clause"

[Gopher74]

I couldn't find Burell's but I thought he had a full no trade.

 

 

 

Dunn didn't get a no trade until the Reds picked up his option.

Yea, Dunn didn't have one until his option was picked up, but he still didn't have a no trade for the duration of his contract.

 

I could very well be wrong about Burrell. I thought someone on here would know for certain, but I'd heard that his no trade clause was either simply not in effect the last year of his contract, or it was a limited no-trade.

 

Either way, like always, this isn't something that's going to happen. It was more just to gauge the opinions of Burrell on here.