Highest Ceilings in the Minors

[lovehate]

Just off the top of my head, wondering IF the player reaches near their fullest potential, how would they rank?

 

I'll go:

 

1 Jeffress

2 Rogers

3 Brewer

4 Cain

5 Ford

6 Pascual

7 Seidel

8 Bryson

9 Haydel

10 Arias Hitanel (based on age and hearsay)

[patrickgpe]

i'm not as big on an expert on the minor league system, but due to Jeffress' personal problem and Rogers injury problems i wouldn't put them 1 and 2. I'd probably Gindl #1, Gamel #2, Brewer #3, Brantley #4, Green #5.

[dadofandrew]

Given the need for catching, Salome has to be top 3.

[pogokat]

1. Jeffress

2. LaPorta

3. Cain

4. Brewer

5. Chapman

 

if we are just talking potential here, these guys have it like crazy...maybe not the performance at superstar levels yet, but these 5 could all be mlb stars...

 

guys like Green, Gamel, and to a lesser extent Gindl are already playing closer to their full potential (not a knock, it's just that i think they are showing everything whereas Brent Brewer could turn into Alphonso Soriano with the stick tomorrow)

[patrickgpe]

i think its hard to define what we are looking for. I guess i was looking at younger players who have done well in a and aa ball. La Porta may have crazy potential but at 23 may not have as high of a ceiling than Gindl at 19.

[Tbadder]

Yeah...I was really bummed when Gindl was mentioned as already nearly tapped out. Is it just athleticism that determines ceiling?

[pogokat]

Gindl's not "tapped out" he's just not as projectable as LaPorta...which isn't a bad thing...it just means that i think he's already showing a lot of his talents, while the guys i listed are showing some ability, but flashes of brilliance...this is partially based on the logic that a guy wh is producing a ton probably can't get a whole lot better...i'm not trying to suggest that Caleb has topped out in rookie ball...just that i don't expect his peak numbers at any level to be that much better...

 

it's also worth noting when you are talking about ceilings that things likeraw tools (strength, size, speed, agility) really come into play...that's why people like Lorenzo Cain and Brent Brewer so much...some ability+all sorts of tools=mega ceiling

 

And i don't think we've seen anything close to LaPorta's full potential...he could be Prince Fielder in the bigs..

 

it's similar to Braun a couple years ago...he showed a ton in 2005, but we had no idea he was going to be Joe DiMaggio in the bigs...

[DrWood]

gindl, gamel, green, chapman, bryson, seidel are guys I'd definitely never associate with ceiling. They might end up great MLB players, but they don't have the freakish abilities (or multiple abilities) you associate with a high ceiling. LaPorta is even a stretch since he's really only plus power at this point.

anyone that can hit triple digits on a fastball, like Omar Aguilar, could be added to the list.

I'd add Escobar, too.

And Parra, since I think he can be a true Ace.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm surprised not many have mentioned the Grand Salome!!! He has a cannon for an arm, hits cleanup as the DH on his days off....AND HE'S A CATCHER! Pudgito!!!! If he hits his ceiling, I would go as far as to say we would have one of the greatest infields of all-time. Then again, that's also assuming Two-Bag Rickie scratches the Cathedral ceiling above him, as well.

[colbyjack]

Pogo hit it, when talking about ceiling, you're talking about pure, raw physical ability and the overall collection of tools. Gindl isn't a bad prospect (as pogo also mentioned in a different thread, everyone has a different definition of what makes a prospect), but his ceiling is definitely limited.

 

I'd probably go Brewer, Rogers, Parra, LaPorta, Jeffress 1-5. LaPorta's power and overall offensive potential alone makes him a pretty high ceiling player, and I think people forget that Parra can touch 96 to go along with his overall pitching savvy.

[1992casey]

Given the need for catching, Salome has to be top 3.

I don't understand the connection between 'need for catching' and 'ceiling'. Are you grading ceiling on a curve with extra credit thrown in for position?

[Tbadder]

That's what I don't understand about Caleb then. If his potential is limited are we saying that he's done growing; he's done improving his speed, leap-ability, etc. The guy's 19. Isn't baseball known for guys who are okay to very good in the minors and then bloom in AAA and the majors?

 

And can a one-dimensional player like LaPorta, who has one off the charts ability, be considered a high ceiling guy? Pete Incavilia (sic) had a high ceiling too, but wasn't that great of a player. I guess I might be misinterpreting the question. In my mood I suppose I'm thinking that a high ceiling guy has to has several outstanding tools, and as far as I can determine, LaPorta defies that definition.

 

I guess my bias is that I was hoping Brewer and Gindl were our number one and two high ceiling guys.

[colbyjack]

Gindl not being a high ceiling player really is nothing to be disappointed about. His upside is limited, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be a good to great player down the line. He has one tool that is hard to teach, the hit tool, he has some pop and he has a good outfield arm. He's not the fastest of players, and he's only 5'7" or so, so their isn't much to any physical projection to expect him to get bigger, stronger, faster.

 

Brewer screams projection at 6'2" 190 or so. He's incredibly fast, has very good power potential, has a strong arm, good range and he has almost endless potential. Right now he's a work in progress and not as refined as Gindl is.

 

I can understand the argument that LaPorta may not be a high ceiling guy, but power is the most difficult tool to acquire, and LaPorta has power to spare. His hit tool may not be that bad either. If a player has one really really good tool, such as power and/or their bat, I would lean towards considering that player a high ceiling player.

[Tbadder]

OMG! I did not realize Caleb was a midget. I guess a high ceiling is out of the question then (bad pun I know). I teach high school and college, and have seen plenty of 5' 7" guys who buck up to 5' 11" to 6' 1" by the time they're 22/23. So maybe there's hope there. Anybody know how big his parents are? That might give us an indication of some future potential size-wise.

 

As always thanks for the info/insight Colby.

[TooLiveBrew]

And can a one-dimensional player like LaPorta, who has one off the charts ability, be considered a high ceiling guy?

 

But he's not just one-dimensional, unless you lump power & hitting & eye at the plate together into just 'offense.' As cj mentioned, that's one reason why some weren't as high on Prince, and obviously his ceiling is quite high. While I don't necessarily think that Matt can be as elite a hitter as Prince, I think it's a useful comparison in terms of putting 'one-dimensional' in perspective.

[wvpowerblkwel]

I like Pogo's 5 posted earlier in the thread, except I think I would pull Brewer out of my top five and add Gamel at #4. Jeffress is just a talent...you can't teach 100 mph. LaPorta is my pick for "next to the bigs" as Joe Thatcher was my pick last spring. He is not "one dimensional" at all...just learning to play a new position. He hits the ball hard to all fields, and not just out of the park. I think Salome is my #3 though as he showed huge comeback ability from what should've been a crippling injury for a catcher. #4 then would be Gamel...he showed potential when he came through Charleston, and after the AA and Hawaii winter league performance, I think he is showing the much needed fulfillment of the potential. Chapman was a monster here this year....solid all around, good work ethic, no questions on defense...Just not sure whether Cain's unfulfilled potential gets him or Chapman the 5 slot. I know Brewer has the physical skills, but we have enough infielders without good hands, and short is not where I want one of those. If he shows some improvements there and with the K's (170!) then maybe, but I was disappointed by what I saw last season.

[Gopher74]

And can a one-dimensional player like LaPorta, who has one off the charts ability, be considered a high ceiling guy?

 

But he's not just one-dimensional, unless you lump power & hitting & eye at the plate together into just 'offense.' As cj mentioned, that's one reason why some weren't as high on Prince, and obviously his ceiling is quite high. While I don't necessarily think that Matt can be as elite a hitter as Prince, I think it's a useful comparison in terms of putting 'one-dimensional' in perspective.

Not to mention, in comparing LaPorta to Prince, LaPorta may not have as high of a offensive upside, but I do believe that he'll end up being a better fielder. Everything you hear is that he's taken to LF very quickly and has the athletic ability to handle Left. If that's the case, his upside is going to be very high.

 

Seems to me that he's got the ability to post a .400-ish OBP, hit 35 and have a solid BA, and as long as he can be league average in the OF, that's a core player.

 

[Gopher74]

I have to ask whey people are so high on Chapman's upside, and yet nobody's mentioned Fermaint?

 

Anyway, my list.

 

1-Mark Rogers

-Strictly based on potential. Probably a long shot to reach that potential, but guys who can throw 100 with high 80 MPH sliders and have the athletic ability of Rogers are invaluable and are what makes rotations.

2-Jeremy Jeffress

-See Rogers, Mark.

3-Rolando Pascual

-Obviously as you can see, I place more value on arms. He's still not even 18 years old and has a big frame that can add velocity to it. 6'6, already throws 93 MPH, could likely crank that up into the upper 90's(which is just a guess, I'm not sure how much velocity he's likely to add, or has added since I last heard...anyone who knows more than I please throw in your 2 cents). Plus he's got all the time in the world to develop.

4-Brent Brewer

-No mystery here. Has all the tools in the world. When you get offered a schlarship by the godfather of college football, Mr Bowden himself, chances are, you're an athlete.

5-Matt LaPorta

-The guy who's going to round out our youth movement hopefully. Well, if we could get a catcher, but as for the OF, and the IF. Could be breaking camp with the Brewers as early as 2009. Word is he's handling the move from 1st base to the OF very well, and looks very natural in Left Field which is encouraging. His A ball numbers were superior to those of Ryan Braun as a point of reference(OPS was 100 points higher), though hoping for anything near Ryan Braun from him in the near future is extremely unfair to the kid.

 

Manny Parra would have been probably number 3 on my list, but I excluded him simply because he isn't what I call a "prospect" anymore.

 

Next on the list

Charlie Fermaint

Lorenzo Cain

Mat Gamel

Angel Salome

RJ Siedel

Alides Escobar

 

This is a tough question to me because we seem to have just so many guys in our minor leagues, particularly the lower levels with an abundance of natural talent that it's hard to distinguish between the top five.

 

I do love the Brewers draft philosophy however. Power arms, and toolsy players. Reminds me very much of the Atlanta Braves MO.

[pogokat]

Chapman looked so much better than fermaint in 2007...i cant explain it, because Charlie looked really good in 2005 and 2006, but something was massively wrong last year...he's gotta come out at an insane clip in 2008 to get back on trak...he shoulda been starting in AA last season, instead he ended it on the bench in low a...thats very bad for his future

[ILuvDaBush]

Why does Angel get no love? As Al said, there is a dearth of catchers in the minors with his tools, though unrefined. Is it his short stature? He's shown good power potential, a keen eye, and I cannot rave about the cannon enough. Along with Rogers, Brewer, and Jeffress, that's a Snap-On convention waiting to happen. If only we had Ryan Anderson, we could have an elite 5!

[DrWood]

salome is a real prospect, but he's 5'7" with no real position for sure.

[Gopher74]

Chapman looked so much better than fermaint in 2007...i cant explain it, because Charlie looked really good in 2005 and 2006, but something was massively wrong last year...he's gotta come out at an insane clip in 2008 to get back on trak...he shoulda been starting in AA last season, instead he ended it on the bench in low a...thats very bad for his future

Yea, I know he had a terrible year, but I thought the point of this was strictly who had the most potential and who had the highest ceiling. Clearly if this was just a ranking of the top prospects in which you have to combine their tools, ability and the likelihood of them reaching that potential he wouldn't have been on my list, not to mention Rogers who would have been much further down.