Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[TooLiveBrew]

For what it's worth, logan, BBTF comes across as pretty high on the Brewers overall.

 

Going to smaller font in hopes to make this fit better. Here are the hitters…

 

 

 

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Braun, R. - ZiPS		465	158	33	4	33	15/22	30	113	.294	.332	.554	.886
- CHONE	565	519	152	32	3	30	18/25	40	110	.293	.350	.539	.889
- James		570	186	42	5	46	20/28	47	114	.326	.383	.660	1.042
	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cameron, M. - ZiPS		481	122	29	5	18	18/?(23)	59	123	.254	.341	.447	.788
- CHONE	614	545	134	32	4	21	16/22	62	149	.246	.331	.435	.766
- James		570	139	33	4	22	18/25	69	165	.244	.333	.452	.765
	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR

[TooLiveBrew]

I'll update the team post once the revised projections come out on Cameron (that is, the ones I can get my hands on), but for now, this'll have to do. Keep in mind these are numbers projected with a heavy impact from PetCo Park, and likely made thinking that he'd be back there for 2008.

Cameron, M.	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
- ZiPS		481	120	26	5	16	17/22	56	131	.249	.334	.424	.758
- CHONE	614	545	134	32	4	21	16/22	62	149	.246	.331	.435	.766
- James		570	139	33	4	22	18/25	69	165	.244	.333	.452	.765

Others have covered his road splits, but they've basically been a .350 OBP, a .450 SLG, and an .800 OPS. He doesn't carry a big HR/FB rate, so Miller Park will help him quite a bit - just not to an extreme.

[logan82]

For what it's worth, logan, BBTF comes across as pretty high on the Brewers overall.

That particular snipet just gave off the impression of "same old Brewers."

[TooLiveBrew]

I can see that - the way it read to me was that it would symbolically finalize that these aren't the 'same ol' Brewers.'

[TooLiveBrew]

Alright! So, BBTF has finally updated the ZiPS projection on Mike Cameron. I've updated my original team-wide post to include Cam, and below are the specifics. I, for one, think his output will be somewhere between the 'optimistic' & 'average' projections, but what do I know...

Cameron, M.	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projection	481	122	29	5	18	18/?	59	123	.254	.341	.447	.788
Optimistic	508	138	39	7	23	21/?	73	123	.272	.371	.512	.883
Pessimistic	381	84	23	2	11	9/?	40	111	.220	.299	.378	.677

[Ennder]

ZiPs tends to weigh 2005 too high for my tastes and Cameron was injured that season so that is why the playtime is so low (he said that projection was BEFORE taking into account the 25 game suspension). They also regress for age pretty heavily so they are assuming Cameron slips somewhat but that is offset by the park movement so he still ends up better than last season.

 

That is still a pretty big upgrade from the production we got out of Menchkins last year.

 

Wasn't sure where to post this but when asked who the best 5 pitchers under age 25 were here was Will Carrol's answer.

 

Gallardo

Lincecum

Kazmir

Hernandez (but his arm's going to explode)

Kershaw (probably higher, but only seen film)

 

Gotta like seeing Gallardo listed over guys like Lincecum, King Felix and Kazmir.

[ILuvDaBush]

No mention of Gallagher or Marshall? LUDICROUS! :-)

[TooLiveBrew]

Here are some Cubs pitching projections:

 

Name	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Ascanio, J. - ZiPS	49	3	88	91	8	39	55	4.50
- CHONE	42	3	75	76	9	31	60	4.32
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Cotts, N. - ZiPS	59	0	64	58	7	35	58	4.08
- CHONE	57	3	64	58	6	31	56	3.94
- James	30	0	30	27	4	16	27	4.20
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Dempster, R. - ZiPS	70	0	72	68	7	34	62	4.25
-ZiPS (SP)**	31	25	150	159	18	68	112	4.96
- CHONE	65	1	72	69	6	33	62	4.00
- James	65	0	70	69	7	34	58	4.37
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Eyre, S. - ZiPS	67

[Ennder]

ZiPs and Chone both start off of a 3 year weighted baseline for innings and AB's, though Chone hand adjusts his final product and ZiPs is just computer based. In Wood's case that is probably a more accurate guess since his injuries are the type that could well repeat themselves. If you replay the 2008 season 100 times for every time he pitches 70 innings there is probably one where he gets hurt early in the year and pitches like 10 IP.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe James's 60 IP is optimistic, but I think it's closer to what Kerry will turn in next year than 29 & 36 IP. Thanks for the input, Ennder.

[TooLiveBrew]

A look at some Cubs batting projections...

 

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Blanco, H. - ZiPS		149	35	8	1	4	0/0	10	26	.235	.286	.383	.669
- CHONE	195	181	44	9	1	5	0/0	13	31	.243	.297	.387	.684
	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cedeno, R. - ZiPS		462	125	20	3	11	9/16	26	86	.271	.312	.398	.710
- CHONE	501	468	132	24	4	12	9/15	30	81	.282	.329	.427	.756
	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB/A	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
DeRosa, M. - ZiPS		417	115	23	2	9	1/3	43	83	.276	.349	.405	.754
- CHONE	556	496	136	28	2	13	2/4