Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[baseballguy25]

seems to question that Villanueva can be a good starter this year, that Parra is better than Gallagher, that Braun or Weeks will improve all because they're either young, or because of their past performance in the big leagues. In fact, he's made that argument many a time, yet he thinks that Pie will be an instant upgrade over Jones, and that he'll only be a slight downgrade from Hall. Well, using his logic of weighing last season very heavily, then you can't make that argument.

 

 

Not true at all, I never once said that Villanueva can't be a good starter. But I said right now it's unfair to say he will be better then Sean Marshall(who had a 3.92 era last year in 19 starts-21 games, and a 2.08 era in five minor league starts) after 12 ML starts in two years. I did say Gallagher would be equal to Parra, but I later admitted I was wrong and got some bad information in the past about Parra. Again I never said Pie would be a instant upgrade over Jones offensivly either, defensivly yes, but not offensivly. I did say Pie only had to hit 254/305/709 to match the production the Cubs got from CF last year. Because Jones only played CF mostly in the second half of the season, and in the first half Soriano, Pagan and Pie got alot of the playing time, and Jones was on the bench or in RF. I never said Pie would be a slight downgrade from Hall either, I said I can see why Perry said that. Because if Hall hits the way he did last year(254/315/729), Pie might only be a slight downgrade to Hall if he hits some. I never said thats what I thought Hall would do next year. I did say I don't see Capuano, Suppan or Bush improving alot next year, and thats because of the defense, and I think I have a valid point with that.

 

 

So Gopher you keep making up things I say, and switching things around. I'm glad others on this board are starting to notice the stuff you are doing. I never once said these Brewers players wouldn't do well just not near your expectations. If this junk continues I'm just gonna not even read your post anymore. I didn't even read your last post fully to me cuz it was full of useless crap.

 

 

And this is DESPITE the fact that he's coming off a major surgery and he's never played

 

Do your research please, Fukudome had MINOR surgery, to clean up some bone chips. The Cubs have talk to the doctor who did the surgery and he said he should have no major effects from it.

[ILuvDaBush]

What I don't get is how people won't give Braun any credit for improving his defense. I remember when David Wright first came up, he didn't look that comfortable out there. And now he's the crowned Gold Glove-man at the hot corner. I truly expect Braun's OPS to fall 100 points, but I also expect Braun's defense, if he is given a chance, to rise exponentially, more than making up for the drop in offense. And honestly, it's not his FIELDING as much as it's his footwork and throws after he gets to the ball.

[Gopher74]

What I don't get is how people won't give Braun any credit for improving his defense. I remember when David Wright first came up, he didn't look that comfortable out there. And now he's the crowned Gold Glove-man at the hot corner. I truly expect Braun's OPS to fall 100 points, but I also expect Braun's defense, if he is given a chance, to rise exponentially, more than making up for the drop in offense. And honestly, it's not his FIELDING as much as it's his footwork and throws after he gets to the ball.

Yea, I don't understand it either. I think the kids proven that he's more than willing to put in the work, and will do what it takes. I expect him to be vastly improved this year if he is left at 3rd base. Also, I don't know if I expect as big of a drop offensively as you do. I think that he's likely going to drop, but I don't see him having a .100 point drop. Not hitting in front of Prince. I think his SLG will likely fall off considerably, but at least I hope that his BB rate will improve, keeping his OPS around .950-.975.

 

We shall see though. NO question the issue of 3rd base defense is going to be one of critical importance this upcoming season.

 

 

So Gopher you keep making up things I say, and switching things around. I'm glad others on this board are starting to notice the stuff you are doing. I never once said these Brewers players wouldn't do well just not near your expectations. If this junk continues I'm just gonna not even read your post anymore. I didn't even read your last post fully to me cuz it was full of useless crap.

 

 

Right. And like I said. I'm done replying to you. I posted the links of the things you've said and then later denied saying. And while it's cute to play the, "I'm glad everyone else sees that you're right and I'm wrong" card, one person came to your defense, a couple said we were both acting like idiots(which I agree with by the simple fact that I'm even still arguing with you as you just keep saying the same thing over and over), and most argued with you as well.

 

But please don't "threaten" to not read my posts and don't say that you didn't read most of it. You've said you weren't going to respond to me a couple days ago, and the only reason you didn't address the rest of the points was because you had no rebuttal. I would ask how you'd know it was "full of useless crap" if you didnt' read it though. That doesn't seem possible, but I can hardly imagine I'd get a logical answer from you.

[baseballguy25]

I posted the links of the things you've said and then later denied saying.

 

Huh? What links? I'm 100 percent sure I didn't say the stuff you were saying. I never once said Pie was going to out hit Jones, I never said Soto was going to be a superstar, I never said Villanueva was no good or whatever other junk you claimed I said. Maybe you misunderstood what I said, but I don't see were your getting this stuff from. Right now it seems like your making up more even more lies. Quit trying to make up these lies to try to prove your point, if I don't say the stuff it's not true.

 

 

And while it's cute to play the, "I'm glad everyone else sees that you're right and I'm wrong" card, one person came to your defense, a couple said we were both acting like idiots(which I agree with by the simple fact that I'm even still arguing with you as you just keep saying the same thing over and over), and most argued with you as well

 

If you read the thread, you would know more then one person came to my defense. Not to mention I got a PM saying your acting like a jerk(from one of the posters who talked about our debate), and putting words in my mouth. I'm glad others on this thread can finally see how your acting. Some in this thread might disagree with a few things I say but there obviously not making up things I have said, or nearly as biased as you. Obviously your the only poster who has a problem with me

 

 

full of useless crap" if you didnt' read it though. That doesn't seem possible, but I can hardly imagine I'd get a logical answer from you.

 

This what happens, I read a line or two and think ok crap, then a move down and read a few other lines and see ok more crap, and so on and so on. Get it full of useless crap, that I didn't read all the way? Do yourself a favor and stop responding.

[ILuvDaBush]

OK. Let's play a game.

 

Top 5 hitters

 

1. Prince v. A-Ram. Decidedly in Prince's favor. Higher OBP/Slugging.

 

2. DLee v. Braun. Giving Braun the edge in offense, DLee in defense. I know most will say Braun is a winner here, I'll concede a push, but I'm pessimistic on Braun's offense. I really like his speed, but hitting in front of Prince doesn't afford many opportunities.

 

3. Hart v. Soriano. Stats say push offensively. Defensively, I'm saying push. Hart could easily come out on top, however, because of his versatility, both offensively (he can bat anywhere from 1-5 while Soriano is strictly a leadoff hitter with no leadoff skills) and defensively (he plays an adequate CF while Soriano...)

 

4. Hardy v. DeRosa. I would say this and #5 are where it can tilt one way decidely or be a push. Here, you have a player who has established what he does (adequate defense, Keith Ginter skills at the plate) vs. a player who is always a tale of two-halves. If Hardy has a first half like he had last year, coupled with a second half like he had his rookie year, well. I would say this is the biggest advantage we would have outside of....

 

5. Weeks v. Pie. The tale of "What have you done for me....LATELY." Weeks ended the season like burning gasoline. If he has established a new level of production, we would have yet ANOTHER MVP candidate. Pie, on the other hand, left his tool belt in AAA (sans defense as I, unfortunately, have a good friend who would bait me into watching Cubby games). He's fleet-footed, but he didn't showcase the power or swing (perhaps, because of the aforementioned longevity) that he boasted in the minors. Hopefully Weeks' new level is not an aberration, and his AAA numbers have dwarved Pie's, thus, you have to give the clear advantage to the Brewers here.

 

The Five best Pitchers

 

1. Sheets v. Zambrano. As goes Sheets, so go the Brewers. He is the epitome of an ACE when he is on. On the other hand, Mt. Zambrano is always one BIG HR and Braun-trot from going Clemens on the batter. Assuming healthy Sheets, Ad. Brew.

 

2. Yo v. Marmol. If either team is pinning this season's hopes on a young pitcher, those hopes will be tied to these two pitchers. Yo has dominated the world since he was expunged from the womb. The Marmelade Man has a one year highlight film as a reliever (and, thus, a limited sample size). But honestly, the biggest advantage the Brewers have with Yo (besides his bat) is that Yo succeeded as a starter, and thus, his circa 3.00ERA will be worth more than Marmol's 2.75ERA.

 

3. Newhouse v. Hill. Let's compare strikeout pitches. Hill's curve is one of the ten best in the majors (though I would take Ben's everyday..and then some." Carlos's changeup, however, is one of the most filthy offerings in its own right. As starters, they've put up similar lines so I'm going to say push, though I could see this going either way.

 

4. Capuano v. Lilly. Both have seen resurgences in their control, though Cappy's was two years ago en route to the AS Game while Lilly's was recently last year.

 

Cappy06 223.0/4.03/1.25WHIP/174K/47BB

Lilly07 207.0/3.83/1.14WHIP/174K/55BB

 

Slightly better WHIP for Lilly, though Cappy showed the better control with more innings and less walks. Push... No. I'll give it to Lilly, reluctantly.

 

5. Gagne v. The Dumpster. Simply compare Cy Youngs... But seriously, Gagne, as a closer over the last two years, has put up better peripherals across EVERY category. Both have failed as starters while only one has failed as a healthy closer. Advantage Wrigley North!

[baseballguy25]

5. Gagne v. The Dumpster. Simply compare Cy Youngs... But seriously, Gagne, as a closer over the last two years, has put up better peripherals across EVERY category

 

 

Umm Ryan Dempster is no longer the closer, he's gonna be the 5th starter or long man depending on how well he pitches. Kerry Wood is probably going to be the closer if he's healthy, and if he isn't Bob Howry will probably close.

[danzig6767]

The middle of this thread reminds me of some posters long since departed... It's one thing to have an opinion, it's another to force it down someone's throat. No matter how good your posts are it's never a good thing to see the same name every other post on a page...

 

I tried reading some of the thread, but it was way to many back and forth monster long posts between the same people. Here and there i can read a long post by someone, but when it's one after another, i can't help but scroll right past them.

 

[Gopher74]

If you read the thread, you would know more then one person came to my defense. Not to mention I got a PM saying your acting like a jerk(from one of the posters who talked about our debate), and putting words in my mouth. I'm glad others on this thread can finally see how your acting. Some in this thread might disagree with a few things I say but there obviously not making up things I have said, or nearly as biased as you. Obviously your the only poster who has a problem with me

I'm honestly trying to end this discussion, but forgive me, this is my weakness. I can't let stupid comments go. Are you honestly going to continue to play this card? Guess what pal? I got a couple PM's as well. Click on my profile. But just read this over and think how pathetic this sounds? People like me more than you..nuh-uh... It sounds like a argument between a couple of 4th graders.

Huh? What links? I'm 100 percent sure I didn't say the stuff you were saying. I never once said Pie was going to out hit Jones,

I just find this absolutely amazing. I made the comment that I thought Pie would be a downgrade from Pie overall and you came back with your comments, comments that I pasted again after the fact from your posts.

 

 

This what happens, I read a line or two and think ok crap, then a move down and read a few other lines and see ok more crap, and so on and so on. Get it full of useless crap, that I didn't read all the way? Do yourself a favor and stop responding.

Fantastic. I guess if you're not reading my posts then you can stop already. The problem is, you seem to be embolden by the fact that you got this mystical PM. I do find if funny that you can play the role of victim on an online argument and sound so pathetic doing so, but again, this is really getting ridiculous, and I'm quite certain nobody else wants to keep reading this drivel, so if it's all the same to you, let's stop already.

[Gopher74]

The middle of this thread reminds me of some posters long since departed... It's one thing to have an opinion, it's another to force it down someone's throat. No matter how good your posts are it's never a good thing to see the same name every other post on a page...

I tried reading some of the thread, but it was way to many back and forth monster long posts between the same people. Here and there i can read a long post by someone, but when it's one after another, i can't help but scroll right past them.

 

Yea, again, I really am sorry for my "little" role in that. I can't imagine that's interesting for anyone to read. I'm just too stubborn to see an argument is going nowhere at times and tend to carry it on far too long.

 

[baseballguy25]

When you got a piece of crap like Gopher74 on here, it's not worth my time.

 

Here's a PM I just got from Gopher, I know it's not right to post this stuff, but I just wanna show you guys how big of a jerk he is.

 

 

Kid, you honestly have got to be the most obnoxious little twit I've ever come across. Seriously, how old are you? The, "people like me better" stuff is really pathetic. Honestly, I've gotten about 5 PM's from people telling me how annoying they found you to be, but trust me, I'm not going to bring that up during an argument. It's akin to the 3rd grade argument of "nobody likes you", and it's really just ridiculous.

 

So tell ya what kid, why don't you just shut the hell up already. I think just about every poster has come on the thread to point out your asinine and ridiculous bias. It's one thing to be wrong and overvalue players, it's another to run your mouth when you're just clearly ignorant about a particular topic. You know, kinda like the Parra thing. You just don't have a clue what you're talking about.

 

And like I've said, it's funny, you parrot these mystical projections that you can NEVER provide links to by saying, "everyone thinks this", and yet when Bill James projects a 3.84 ERA for Villanueva, then that doesn't count. When Pie hits .214 with a .271 BA, then it's because he's young, yet when Rickie Weeks, who was hampered most of last year by a wrist injury and STILL was in the top 5 of all leadoff hitters in OBP, SLG, and OPS, has a low BA, then he's never proven he can do it.

 

It's just funny. Not only are you an idiot, but you're a hypocrite. Now please run along and shut the %$%* up already.

 

 

 

Again he makes up stuff, I said Weeks has never proved he can play a fullseason(because he hasn't yet), it has nothing to do what he hit last year. But yes his batting average needs to be higher. Low batting average, high OBP guys tend to do well against crappy pitchers, but struggle bad against good pitchers. But Gopher isn't smart enough to know that. It's also not very hard to go on Google and find what Nate Silver, Jim Callis and many other experts say about Fukudome and Soto.

 

 

Anyways I'm done with this board, if Gopher74 gets banned for being a idiot, someone please PM and I would love to come back and chat with you guys. Goodbye to everyone else

[ILuvDaBush]

When I said the Dumpster has failed as a closer as well as a starter, I meant that since he had failed as a closer, he was going back to starting. And the only reason to move him off the closer position for Kerry Wood or anyone else would be to put him in the rotation. The Dumpster will be a starter, as he was supposed to be last year as well. The thing I don't get is why Marmol isn't the concensus closer. It makes me think that Cubby brass may be a bit paranoid that hitters will have a better go of it this year.

[Ennder]

What I don't get is how people won't give Braun any credit for improving his defense. I remember when David Wright first came up, he didn't look that comfortable out there. And now he's the crowned Gold Glove-man at the hot corner

 

 

 

Wright was a good 3B his rookie year, he just made errors. Weeks was adequate at 2B but with too many errors. The big difference is Braun was bad in every single way, he didn't get to many out of zone plays, he made a ton of errors and even if you pretend he made 0 errors (which no 3B does obviously) he was below average at in zone plays. Sure he'll improve but my personal guess is he improves to maybe being the 2nd worst defensive 3B in baseball instead of by far the worst. That isn't much upside.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure what projections you're talking about, though I'd be curious to see them. The only one I look at is Bill James, and that one has him at nearly identical numbers.

Most I've seen are fairly conservative, which may well be the right way to go. Fwiw...

 

CHONE: .272/.326/.433/.759

Marcels: .260/.320/.400/.720

James: .283/.333/.456/.789

 

I can't get my hands on the 2008 ZiPS... bbtf's site has that address displaying the Swisher trade analysis for some fluke reason. But the 2007 ZiPS for Pie were .257/.304/.401/.705, so I'd guess they're at least there for 2008.

 

Not sure how a .789 OPS is the same as Jones's .735, but averaged out, I'd guess the projections have Pie around that .735 number. I think the Marcels is low, but that's inherent, since it weighs the last 3 seasons, and 2007 was rough for Pie's stat-line. I don't know how much Marcels takes age & level into account. Felix will only be 23 this coming season.

[Ennder]

Shandler has Pie at a .285/.334/.461/.795 line

 

ZiPS for the Cubs came out today.

 

Pie - .269/.321/.429/.749

 

closest comps are Corey Patterson (haha) and Dave Martinez.

[Brian the Automator]

This thread is seriously in danger of being shut down, because people aren't treating other people and their opinions with respect. There are ways to disagree with people without doing the whole internet tough-guy act.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fwiw, I'm sifting through the 2008 PECOTA projections (found a site that has them broken down into 2 spreadsheets - pitchers & hitters), and for posterity's sake in this discussion I'm going to post on the Brewers projections that I can find for each guy - I may do the same with the Cubs (that is, if the thread isn't locked).

 

EDIT: ok, so sub "CHONE" everywhere I had "PECOTA." Dang I'm stupid.

 

EDIT2: Found the 2008 Cubs ZiPS - Pie's line: .269/.321/.429/.750 - another one superior to Jones's 2007 line.

[Ennder]

If a site is posting PECOTA projections they aren't the final run of them. The version that goes out in the book is not the final run of their projections as weird as that is.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hmm - are these likely to be decent though? So far the only thing I've noticed is that if they seem off at all to me, they've been cautious. Well, aside from Weeks having relatively meager projections due to his injuries, & Villanueva not getting projected as a SP. Imo the way to err is cautious, but what do I know.

[Ennder]

I think the final run adjusts for other teams in your division and your own teams roster changes. I know it is a big enough difference that it improved the accuracy results for PECOTA when they were comparing systems and the person doing the comparison was using the book stats.

 

On the otherhand they seem comfortable enough quoting what PECOTA thinks on their chats etc before doing the final run so they must be at least decent.

[TooLiveBrew]

One thing I plan to do is review the 2007 projections (that I can get my hands on) - not by any in-depth scientific means, mind you. Just a cursory check to see roughly what kind of accuracy to expect. It's tough, since it's nearly impossible to catch a breakout year like Weeks is likely about to have, since all indications of him stat-wise show a guy that is in line to post an .825-ish OPS next year - basically, I think of that as the 'pessimistic' version of his model, which is fantastic.

[TooLiveBrew]

Due to the Crew-Cubs debate, I wanted to go through all the Brewers projections I could get my hands on for a better idea of what to expect for 2008. I imagine I'll do the same on the Cubs once I'm done, just for comparison's sake… but to follow are the Brewers' forecasts by player & projection system. I included any player(s) that I felt could see MLB in 2008. Keep in mind that not every player is projected in his current role (Villanueva, for example, is slated as mostly a RP), so bear with me -

 

First, the pitchers…

Name	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Bray, Steve - ZiPS	47	2	79	81	11	23	64	4.33
- CHONE	45	2	69	72	8	30	58	4.57
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Bush, Dave - ZiPS	33	31	192	210	24	44	134	4.64
- CHONE	33	31	193	208	24	45	139	4.38
- James	32	31	184	198	25	40	129	4.26
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Capuano, C. - ZiPS	33	31	195	207	25	54	154	4.48
- CHONE	30	28	177	183	22	61	143	4.32
- James	29	21	145	151	20	48	118	4.41
	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
Choate, R. - CHONE	63	0	59	61	6	22	49

[TooLiveBrew]

 

* - It should be noted that for Gagne, Riske, Mota, Torres, & Choate, the projections were all done with their former teams. I could only find the CHONE numbers for Randy Choate. Additionally, the only 2008 ZiPS data I could find on Gagne was a projection done when Boston acquired him at the 2007 trading deadline. So his bad numbers in Boston haven't been factored into the ZiPS.

Huge problems/detractions, I know - sorry. If anyone has updated ZiPS (or anything) on anybody listed, please share & I'll edit/update.

[Ennder]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/archives/

 

 

 

That link lets you look through transactions to get updated ZiPs projections.

 

 

 

It has updated Brewer versions of their ratings for Gagne, Riske, Kendall etc.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, Ennder. I updated the Gagne & Riske ZiPS, but there weren't any updates for Mota or Torres, nor was there an entry for Choate.

 

This is some funny stuff - from the BBTF Gagne article (by Dan Szymborski):

 

"This is reportedly worth $10 million, with a little bit more in incentives (little bit more being relative). He hasn't passed the physical yet, but considering that Gagne's number of arm surgeries is higher than the number of O.J.'s recent accomplices that have turned state's evidence, it shouldn't be taken for granted that he'll be wearing an M on his cap come April. Hell, in a just world, he wouldn't be wearing an M on his cap even if completely healthy, as I still think the Brewers should bring back the fantastic mb glove logo, which, in addition to being awesome beyond belief, would also indicate for once and for all that these are Brewers that can actually win games, not the Brewers that sign Jeffrey Hammonds to the biggest contract in team history for no particular reason.

 

...

 

The worrisome thing is that the Brewers are giving Ned Yost a bullpen with a lot of options. One thing that doesn't strike me as a good idea is giving Yost choices to make. The best thing to do for Yost Mitigation is instead of last names being on uniforms, stitching on detailed directions on how to manage that particular player, for Yost to follow. Kind of a manage-by-numbers thing. You can even give Yost tickets when he follows the directions and allow him to exchange the tickets for a Milwaukee Brewer kazoo or a little plastic soldier with a cheap parachute."

[logan82]

Hell, in a just world, he wouldn't be wearing an M on his cap even if completely healthy, as I still think the Brewers should bring back the fantastic mb glove logo, which, in addition to being awesome beyond belief, would also indicate for once and for all that these are Brewers that can actually win games, not the Brewers that sign Jeffrey Hammonds to the biggest contract in team history for no particular reason.

Here I was thinking that we had changed ownership, management and had a winning season recently. Guess is was all a mirage.