Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[Ennder]

The Brewers had a better FIP and xERA than the Cubs last year. So if you ignore fielding they were better than the Cubs last year. What you are doing is counting the defense twice, you are penalizing the Brewers for a shoddy defense and then also penalizing their pitchers again for it. Not one projection source that I've seen thinks Hill will be better than Gallardo this year so I obviously disagree with you there, especially since you are pulling half seasons of Hill as part of your basis. If you want to do that take the 1 start in Coors out and Gallardo has a sub 3 ERA on the year.

 

Zambrano - xERA - 3.75, 3.58, 3.43, 3.92, 4.22

Sheets - xERA - 4.01, 2.85, 3.51, 3.01, 4.28

 

 

You are correct they are pretty close but that is with injury starters messing up Sheets numbers some. If Sheets is healthy I like him more than Zambrano. You'll notice my second number in the range was Push. It could very well be even as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Aren't you worried about Gagne being on the Mitchell report? Roberts had Larry Bigbie say that Roberts at first said no to HGH, but then later admitted to trying it out once. He had very little against him in that report, and it was nothing compared to Gagne. So I don't get why you think his projection will fall off the cliff? I think thats more Brewers fans hope(if the Cubs get him) then anything else.

 

You may well be right that I'm being biased, though I strive to not be. I'm not as worried about Gagne since he's a big guy naturally, so even if he can 'only' top out around the low 90s, that's not as big a deal as a small guy like Roberts losing the little pop he has/d.

 

From '04 to '05 (age 27 to age 28), Roberts went from 4 HR (641 AB) to 18 (561 AB). That's a huge jump that looks incredibly suspicious, especially for a guy with a minor-league SLG% of .372 (1097 AB). Roberts might well continue to be a fine offensive player if he can continue to get away with abusing PEDs, but without them he's Craig Counsell.

 

Heck, he might not even be as good as Craig - minor-league SLG% - .423 (1917 AB). In any event, a non-PED'd Roberts would not be much more than Counsell.

[Ennder]

His HR's were actually partially predicted by his jump in doubles the year before. I wouldn't really be worried about players getting worse because of steroids. If they were going to quit they would have quit already and you'd already have seen the production drop. I don't expect Gagne to revert to his pre injury numbers anyway but I'd say he's about the same risk as Wood in general so Gagne is hardly a big focus of the team comparisons.

[baseballguy25]

How is it unfair for us to believe Gallardo is better than Hill but it is ok for you to say the opposite? It doesn't seem like we can expect the Brewers to improve w/o being called bias or pushing the Brewers according to you.

I never said Hill would be better then Gallardo next season, I said that it should be a push as of right now. Gallardo looked great last year, but I think it's unfair to say he will pitch like a ace next year. The reason I said the Brewers won't improve much next year(as is), Is because they still haven't fixed their biggest weakness.

And we're not the only ones who think that we have a better rotation than the Cubs. Lets go and use some "expert" opinions that you keep using to back up your points. SI.com rated the rotations in the NL and the Brewers came out 3rd with the Cubs coming out ranked 9th so its not like its some crackpot theory.

Thats based on talent, and not numbers. Many fans on this board totally underrate the effect the defense has on the pitching staff. There's a reason why the Cubs pitching staff gave up 80 something less runs last year compared to the Brewers. Thats a huge number between the two, and with both teams with pretty much the same rotations, I don't see the Brewers making up the difference. Especially with the defense just as bad as it was last year as of right now.


Not one projection source that I've seen thinks Hill will be better than Gallardo this year so I obviously disagree with you there, especially since you are pulling half seasons of Hill as part of your basis.

I'm just saying that Hill has been a pretty good pitcher the last year and half, and it's unfair to say Gallardo should be ranked above him after 17 starts. Plus I never said Hill should be ahead of Gallardo I said it should be even with what we have to go by right now. You say take away one start from Gallardo and he would have a sub 3 era, well you could say the same thing about Hill if you take away two or three of his bad starts as well.(one being at Coors) I think Gallardo is going to be a very very good pitcher one day, it's just to much to expect him to be better then a 3.50-3.60 era pitcher next year, and thats were I think Hill will end up next year.



The Brewers had a better FIP and xERA than the Cubs last year. So if you ignore fielding they were better than the Cubs last year. What you are doing is counting the defense twice, you are penalizing the Brewers for a shoddy defense and then also penalizing their pitchers again for it.

Because pitching performance has alot do to with defense. A pitcher would have to strike out everybody or field to himself without a defense behind him.The defense is the reason why the pitching gave up more runs then it should have. The Brewers haven't fixed any of the defensive problems which caused the pitching staff give up more runs then they should have, so why would the pitching staff improve? The Brewers will probably have better FIP and xERA then the Cubs again next year, but they will give up alot more runs IMO.

[Ennder]

Because pitching performance has alot do to with defense. A pitcher would have to strike out everybody or field to himself without a defense behind him.The defense is the reason why the pitching gave up more runs then it should have. The Brewers haven't fixed any of the defensive problems which caused the pitching staff give up more runs then they should have, so why would the pitching staff improve? The Brewers will probably have better FIP and xERA then the Cubs again next year, but they will give up alot more runs IMO.

 

yes but you acn't do it this way. You can't look at pitcher ERA and judge how good pitchers are by it and then also look at individual defense and judge the players by it. Defense doesn't hurt the team twice. Either you add defense into each individual player and ignore it for pitchers, or you add it into the pitchers and ignore it for fielders. In my system I chose to add the defense directly into each player and ignore it for the pitchers.

 

Also again it seems like you are assuming the best for the Cubs and not the Brewers. Gallardo was better than Hill last year, was better than him in the minors, is more highly thought of than him, is projected by people to be better than him yet it isn't ok for me to think Gallardo is better than Hill because of sample sizes. Yet you are comfortable with Fukudome, Pie and Soto being advantages for the Cubs even though none of them has played any more than Gallardo has. That was my point about people assuming things work out for the Cubs and not the Brewers.

[baseballguy25]

Defense doesn't hurt the team twice. Either you add defense into each individual player and ignore it for pitchers, or you add it into the pitchers and ignore it for fielders. In my system I chose to add the defense directly into each player and ignore it for the pitchers

 

 

Ok fine defense hurts the pitchers era's alot,and will causes the team to give more runs then they should. No matter how you try to swing it the poor defense causes the team to give up Alot more runs then they should. So if you wanna say the Brewers pitching is equal or better then the Cubs thats fine, but the point is they will still give up alot more runs then the Cubs.

 

 

Yet you are comfortable with Fukudome, Pie and Soto being advantages for the Cubs even though none of them has played any more than Gallardo has. That was my point about people assuming things work out for the Cubs and not the Brewers.

 

I think the Cubs would be fine if Soto/Pie hit 250-260 with 310-330 OBP's next year. Last year the Cubs got 250/300 OBP from the CF postion, and even less then that out of the catchers postion last year. So those guys don't have to be great to be upgrades over what they had offensivly last year, and are big upgrades defensinvly. I dunno what to expect from Fukudome for sure, since I never seen him play. But everything I have read expects big big things for him next year and beyond, maybe he won't be a 900 OPS guy but he's still gonna be pretty darn good. BA scouting report on Fukudome said he was the best all-around player to come over from Japan since Ichiro/Hidecki Matsui. Quick question though how is Gallardo having a era of 3.50-3.60 not expecthing things to work out for the Brewers? Those are very good numbers for a pitcher in his first full year. Most of the time it takes talented young pitchers with ace stuff take a few years to pitch like a ace.(remember he's 22) I still think he's gonna have some up and down games like he did at times last year. But by 09 he could very easily be a 3-3.30 era pitcher. I just hope Brewer fans aren't expecting Gallardo to be dominant in his first full year, thats alot to expect from a 22 year old in his first full season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree on the tempered expectations re. Gallardo, but from what we saw last year, I honestly don't expect much 'up & down' from him.

 

So those guys don't have to be great to be upgrades over what they had offensivly last year, and are big upgrades defensinvly.

Though Pie is probably at least as good as Jones, I don't think he's a big upgrade over Jaque-strap in CF. Just me doing some nit-picking. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Gopher74]

I agree on the tempered expectations re. Gallardo, but from what we saw last year, I honestly don't expect much 'up & down' from him.

 

So those guys don't have to be great to be upgrades over what they had offensivly last year, and are big upgrades defensinvly.

Though Pie is probably at least as good as Jones, I don't think he's a big upgrade over Jaque-strap in CF. Just me doing some nit-picking. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

No, in fact, he'll likely be a significant downgrade.

 

And the .250/.300 from the CF position last year was mainly due to Pie. Jones had another very respectable year last year as a part time player posting a .280 something BA, and a OBP over .330. Who else played CF for them? Soriano? So you'd have to assume that those stats were that bad BECAUSE of Pie, so I find it funny that he'll be able to fix those problems.

 

Their RF'ers hit .293 with a .375 OBP next year. I'm curious how he thinks that Fukudome is going to be a huge upgrade over that. Of course he will be...just...just because, I just don't know how you can project a guy who's never played in the States to beat that number at alll, much less significantly enough to make any type of difference.

[baseballguy25]

Though Pie is probably at least as good as Jones, I don't think he's a big upgrade over Jaque-strap in CF. Just me doing some nit-picking. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

Range wise Pie probably isn't a huge upgrade over Jones in CF, probably just a small one. But Felix Pie has a very strong arm, and Jones has a horrible throwing arm. So overall he is a nice upgrade over Jones in CF.

 

 

I agree on the tempered expectations re. Gallardo, but from what we saw last year, I honestly don't expect much 'up & down' from him

 

But remember it was only 17 starts, he was very good in 12 of the 17 starts, so there's a good reason to be excited about him. But the league is going to make adjustment to him as well when they see a little more of him, and once they do I think he will have some ups and downs. But still 3.50-3.60 is very good numbers for a 22 year old pitcher in his first fullseason. Not often do pitchers that young have much better numbers in their first fullseason in the big leagues. Is it possible, sure Gallardo could easily be better then those numbers, but I don't think Brewers should expect better numbers out of him. Otherwise your expecting ALOT from a pitcher who lacks big league experience and is pretty young. When I compare Hill to Gallardo I think Hill will be pitching at close to his peak at 3.50-3.60 but Gallardo will just be starting at those numbers and won't be close to his peak numbers.

[baseballguy25]

No, in fact, he'll likely be a significant downgrade.

 

Huh? Have you ever seen Pie play defense? I guess not, your opinion is such a joke

 

 

Who else played CF for them? Soriano?

 

Angel Pagan got alot of playing time in CF, and Pie only start 36 games last year. Young players struggle sometimes when they first come to the major leagues, what did Bill Hall or Corey Hart hit in their first chance in the majors at Pie age? Pie destroyed minor league pitching and hit 362 in Triple A last year, and never hit lower then 283 in any minor league season. I think he will come around, but I'm not expecting good numbers from him next year either. Plus I heard the Cubs are still goin to bring in a righthanded CF to play with Pie next year.

 

 

Their RF'ers hit .293 with a .375 OBP next year. I'm curious how he thinks that Fukudome is going to be a huge upgrade over that

 

I never said he will be a huge upgrade offensivly but he will be a upgrade. Because of slugging, the Cubs got a total of 9 HR from RF in 07. Fukudome isn't probably going to hit more then 15-18 HR, but he will also get alot of doubles. The huge upgrade will be defensivly Cliff Floyd could barely move in RF, and Murton is a bad RF as well.

 

 

Remember defense wins NL Central Championships if the Brewers add defense they could win, if they don't they probably won't win it.

[Gopher74]

Huh? Have you ever seen Pie play defense? I guess not, your opinion is such a joke

 

Yea, they're certainly nothing like your gems. The Cubs are great, the Brewers are bad, end of story, and if need be, just say, "that's what everyone thinks".

 

And here's a clue. Offense matters as well. I know, a novel concept, but clearly I wasn't just talking about defense. In fact, did I even say anything about defense?

 

Pie hit .215 with a .271 OBP last year. Oh, and by the way, he played in 80 games in CF.

Jones last year hit .285 the last two years with OBP's of .335 and .334.

 

But again, another example of how facts don't matter. Yea, Pie will be a huge upgrade, no question about it. Please.

 

Angel Pagan got alot of playing time in CF, and Pie only start 36 games last year. Young players struggle sometimes when they first come to the major leagues, what did Bill Hall or Corey Hart hit in their first chance in the majors at Pie age? Pie destroyed minor league pitching and hit 362 in Triple A last year, and never hit lower then 283 in any minor league season. I think he will come around, but I'm not expecting good numbers from him next year either. Plus I heard the Cubs are still goin to bring in a righthanded CF to play with Pie next year.

Woah...but yet we're suppose to assume that Pie will just get better, and all the sudden be a better player than Jones, but you have to incessantly tell us about Gallardo's age(Which you've literally done about 8 or 9 times) and how every other young player can possible struggle? But that doesn't apply with Pie. I have to imagine if he were wearing a Brewers jersey, it'd apply.

I never said he will be a huge upgrade offensivly but he will be a upgrade. Because of slugging, the Cubs got a total of 9 HR from RF in 07. Fukudome isn't probably going to hit more then 15-18 HR, but he will also get alot of doubles. The huge upgrade will be defensivly Cliff Floyd could barely move in RF, and Murton is a bad RF as well.

 

Again, you're inability to be even the slightest big objective is laughable.

 

Exactly what leads you to believe that Fukudome is going to be such a great upgrade? He has never-played-in-the-United-States. For someone who finds every concieveable reason to discredit the Brewers, it's funny you think this guy's going to just step in and produce more than what was actually a very productive position for the Cubs last year.

 

And by the way, the Cubs hit 12 HR's from their RF'ers last year, not 9...not that it matters, I just wonder if you guess at those numbers. They also had an OBP of nearly .800 and 37 Doubles. I'd be very surprised if Fukudome out performs that.

 

 

 

 

Remember defense wins NL Central Championships if the Brewers add defense they could win, if they don't they probably won't win it.

 

Absolutely ridiculous. Defense wins? Then I guess the Pirates are in great shape, huh? Defense will play a part in it.

 

But yet another example. When we talk about Pie's .215/.271 line last year, it's because he was a young player, and they improve, ect..ect..ect. Yet Weeks who's improved drastically defensively and Braun who moved late in his college career from SS won't improve next year.

 

It's very possible that the Brewers make a move, it's also possible they don't. But you seem to be able to neatly cirlcle back to our pour defense for justification for any one of your unsubstantiated POV's. Yes, we know that our defense was poor last year, just like we know that Gallardo's 22 years old. And even with that we finished 2 games back.

[areacodes]

Thats based on talent, and not numbers. Many fans on this board totally underrate the effect the defense has on the pitching staff. There's a reason why the Cubs pitching staff gave up 80 something less runs last year compared to the Brewers. Thats a huge number between the two, and with both teams with pretty much the same rotations, I don't see the Brewers making up the difference. Especially with the defense just as bad as it was last year as of right now.

So, what is the difference between it being based on talent and not numbers when you are able to make similar assumptions about Soto, Pie and Fukudome because I sure know those are not based on MLB numbers. Not to mention it wasn't something that us "fans" made up... it came from "experts" who you seem so willing to trust about when it comes to Soto, Pie and Fukudome. You really can't have it both ways.

 

I think Wrigley playing like a pitchers park last year, coupled with better team defense and career years from some of the starters, not to mention extremely lucky health and that would all lead to why the Cubs gave up 80 less runs than the Brewers. Even if Zambrano manages to turn himself back around what makes you so sure that the rest of the staff will continue to out-pitch their career norms and stay healthy? I'd be willing to bet that it is more likely that Sheets will stay healthy all year as for Lily, Marquis and the rest of the backend of the Cubs rotation to improve on their numbers.

[baseballguy25]

he played in 80 games in CF.

25-30 of those games were as a defensive replacement late in games, he didn't even get AB's alot of the time. Thats why he played in 87 games, with only a 177 AB's. Pagan got sick in early August, and the Cubs had to call up Pie again to be a back up in CF. Pie only got a chance to play everyday a week and half in early May, and for three weeks in June. Other then that he came off the bench last year, when he was in the big leagues. So getting Ab's as a pinch hitter isn't always the best thing for a 22 year trying to learn to adjust to ML pitching.


Woah...but yet we're suppose to assume that Pie will just get better, and all the sudden be a better player than Jones, but you have to incessantly



I love that you keep making up things I say LOL. Please find were I said Pie would be better then Jones last year? I said overall CF production, that includes Angel Pagan and Pie(in limited playing time) hitting like bad. I never once said Pie would match Jones production in CF last year offensivly.

Gallardo's age(Which you've literally done about 8 or 9 times) and how every other young player can possible struggle? But that doesn't apply with Pie. I have to imagine if he were wearing a Brewers jersey, it'd apply.

HAHAHAHA, having a 3.50-3.60 era is ace or good number two starters numbers for a SP these days. I dunno how you say that compares to me saying Pie hits 250 or Soto hits 260. It's just you being biased and expecting wayyyyy to much out of your young players again. I'm giving Brewers players good numbers, but you don't think it's good enough, and I'm giving Cubs low numbers, and you think it's to high. Hmm..... interesting.......


For someone who finds every concieveable reason to discredit the Brewers, it's funny you think this guy's going to just step in and produce more than what was actually a very productive position for the Cubs last year.

Did I make up those numbers for Fukudome? Nope that was MANY experts who get paid alot of money to judge baseball talent. I have never seen the guy play, so I'm going with the guys who get paid money to judge how good Fukudome will be. Thats all we have to go on right now, like it or not.


Absolutely ridiculous. Defense wins? Then I guess the Pirates are in great shape, huh? Defense will play a part in it.

Yes defense doesn't do it by it's self, I was kinda more talking about the Brewers. They have the offense and pitching talent to do it, but without better defense they won't win anything.



But yet another example. When we talk about Pie's .215/.271 line last year, it's because he was a young player, and they improve, ect..ect..ect. Yet Weeks who's improved drastically defensively and Braun who moved late in his college career from SS won't improve next year.

No matter what you think I said Pie will do offensivly, I don't expect huge improvements offensivly next year. For the Brewers to improve the defense, they need huge improvements, not just some.


Yes, we know that our defense was poor last year, just like we know that Gallardo's 22 years old. And even with that we finished 2 games back

Ok fine be happy you only finshed two games back last year. If I was a Brewers fan I would wanna get better, and not watch the team were chasing improve alot defensive(your biggest weakness) while we stay the same.

[strawbossisevil]

Didn't Pie tank it in Winter ball this year? I haven't kept up, but I heard about a month ago that he was barely hitting over .200 in Winter league. So he's barely hitting replacement level against prospects and local sports heroes.

 

Perhaps he's gotten better since I've last heard. But that news can not be encouraging, can it?

 

If he can't hit very well in a winter league, I'm really doubting that he'll be very good at the Major League Level.

 

He really doesn't seem to be all that good of a prospect. Yeah, he's gotten a lot of publicity, but he hasn't exactly forced his way onto the Cubs roster. After all is said and done, I would not be surprised to see him level off at a below average CF.

[baseballguy25]

I think Wrigley playing like a pitchers park last year

 

Look it up it was still one of the best hitters park in the NL

 

 

So, what is the difference between it being based on talent and not numbers when you are able to make similar assumptions about Soto, Pie and Fukudome because I sure know those are not based on MLB numbers.Not to mention it wasn't something that us "fans" made up... it came from "experts" who you seem so willing to trust about when it comes to Soto, Pie and Fukudome. You really can't have it both ways.

 

The thing about that is almost ALL of the experts are expecting quality numbers from Soto/Fukudome. I haven't seen one thing that says those guys won't be good for there postion next year. I never project Soto to have worst numbers then most experts say he will. Not all experts think that the Brewers SP will be that good. SI article was a ranking system on level of talent the pitchers are(points ranked on if their upper or lower rotation thing), as seen last year poor defense will hurt these guys numbers ALOT. Like I said before put a good defensive team behind these players and their numbers will improve alot. I even gave a list of ways to improve the Brewers defense, so please don't say I'm one sided with this stuff. You just seem to keep overrating what the effect the defense has on these pitchers and think magically that these pitchers will perform at their career normals again, without any defensive improvements.

 

career years from some of the starters

 

Who Lilly? Zambrano had the worst year of his career, Jason Marquis wasn't as good as he was in 01,04 or 05. Rich Hill and Marshall career just started so you can't say those guys had career years either. The only guy you can debate had a career year was Lilly, and you don't know what kind of pitcher he will be in the NL yet.

 

 

not to mention extremely lucky health

Thats because they went after pitchers who haven't had major arm trouble. After having guys like Prior and Wood hurt all the time in 05-06 they focused on adding guys who haven't missed time with injuries. Zambrano, Hill, Marquis all never missed time with injuries, and Lilly has been healthy 3 of 4 years before joining the Cubs.

 

Even if Zambrano manages to turn himself back around what makes you so sure that the rest of the staff will continue to out-pitch their career norms and stay healthy? I'd be willing to bet that it is more likely that Sheets will stay healthy all year as for Lily, Marquis and the rest of the backend of the Cubs rotation to improve on their numbers

 

Like I said before 3 of 4 Cubs top four starters never missed time with injuries, and Lilly had limited injury problems over the last 4 years. So there's why we should expect these guys to haveproblems with injuries in 2008. With the way Sheets missed time over the last three years, that would be a poor prediction. See none of the Cubs starters give you reasons for them to miss time next year, and Sheets totally does. Say the Cubs traded for AJ Burnett, then you can predict him to probably miss some starts, like Sheets.

 

Again Lilly has been a 3.69,4.34,4.08,4.31 era in his healthy seasons in the AL, coming to the NL will improve those numbers. So he might not be as good next year, but he's not going to suck he will still be a 4-4.10 era pitcher. Jason Marquis has a 4.56 career era, and had a 4.43 era as SP(4.60 overall last year). So he performed at his career norm last year. I don't think the Cubs rotation will be improved next year. I expect a minor drop off but they had the second best rotation in NL(4th in baseball), they could drop off to 5th or 6th and still have a good rotation.

[baseballguy25]

Didn't Pie tank it in Winter ball this year? I haven't kept up, but I heard about a month ago that he was barely hitting over .200 in Winter league.

 

The Cubs felt he struggled against ML pitching because his swing was to long and pitchers were getting him out with the inside pitch. So this winter Gerald Perry(hitting coach), and Piniella actually traveled to the Dominican and worked with Pie on his swing. He started out 1 for 15 trying to adjust to his new swing, but around 270 the rest of the regular season(244 total average). Since the playoffs have started he has hit 296 in the postseason. The Cubs aren't really paying attention to his overall numbers, but on how he improves his swing. But obviously the Cubs have seen enough of improvements from him this winter, not to go out and add another CF.

 

 

If he can't hit very well in a winter league, I'm really doubting that he'll be very good at the Major League Level.

 

Actually it's a pretty tough hitters league for some reason, I believe only three guys are hitting above 300(318 highest average), and only eight guys are hitting above 270. I heard Carlos Marmol just started pitching down there as well.

[TheCrew07]

The middle of this thread reminds me of some posters long since departed... It's one thing to have an opinion, it's another to force it down someone's throat. No matter how good your posts are it's never a good thing to see the same name every other post on a page...

[logan82]

I was thinking the same thing. I am also ashamed to say that I was part of the problem. Do Baseballguy25 and Gopher74 even know who is arguing what anymore?

[Gopher74]

I was thinking the same thing. I am also ashamed to say that I was part of the problem. Do Baseballguy25 and Gopher74 even know who is arguing what anymore?

No, not at all.

 

In case you didn't notice Logan, I've backed off quite a bit and other than the first night we argued, I've only posted a couple times since.

 

It's also one thing to point something out(TheCrew07), something that's valid as I was banging my head against the wall and probably getting a little bit over zealous, and it's another to come in and try and pile on without anything of substance to add other than a one line snide comment.

[Gopher74]

As I said in my last post, I've come to realize this is an exercise in futility as you tend to take what's said and put your own spin on it, and try to "win" an argument simply by saying things over and over, hence your use of the word biased which appears no less than 25 times in this thread, your mention of Gallardo's age which appears umpteen times, and your mention of our inadaquete defense which is apparently the basis for...well, everything you say, so I'll say my peace here and be done with it. You know, kinda like you said you'd be in page 2 or 3 of this thread?

Ok fine be happy you only finshed two games back last year. If I was a Brewers fan I would wanna get better, and not watch the team were chasing improve alot defensive(your biggest weakness) while we stay the same.

Kinda hard to have a serious discussion with someone when they take what you say and take it out of context or just flat out make things up.

1-I never said I was "happy". 2-Never said I didn't "wanna" get better. 3-The Cubs more CERTAINLY did not "improve a lot". This is the homer coming out. They added one player and he is a player who never played in the big leagues before. In fact, the Brewers have done more to improve than the Cubs. Of course you don't agree with this because this particular author doesn't, and quite clearly the basis of your arguments is "all the experts say so". Still, doesn't MAKE it so.

HOWEVER, despite that all, we still finished just 2 games back. So it was cute how you think that I was somehow happy with that, but what I really said was that I expect things to go better, and despite all the things that went wrong last year, we were still only 2 games back. Now of course you think for some unknown reason that the Cubs improved greatly, and that's fine. But quite simply, we've got a lot more room for growth and many more places where we can and should improve from last year whereas the Cubs players are for the most part maxed out.

I love that you keep making up things I say LOL. Please find were I said Pie would be better then Jones last year? I said overall CF production, that includes Angel Pagan and Pie(in limited playing time) hitting like bad. I never once said Pie would match Jones production in CF last year offensivly.
This is just getting ridiculous. You simply aren't being truthful right now. This is what I said about Pie in relation to Jones.

No, in fact, he'll likely be a significant downgrade.
I think he'll be a significant downgrade overall. I said this clear as day.
Your reply;

Huh? Have you ever seen Pie play defense? I guess not, your opinion is such a joke

Now since I never said anything about defense in particular, and was clearly speaking about Jones being a downgrade to Pie overall, and you respond by saying that it's SO ridiculous that my opinions are a joke, I assume you meant that to mean that you disagreed with me.

So to recap, I say that Pie will likely be a downgrade from Jones last year, as we were specifically speaking about Jones vs Pie, and you come back and your response to that is that my opinion is a joke and tell me that "this is why it's a stupid discussion". Yet just a few posts later you deny ever having said that Pie would be better than Jones this year. I mean seriously, how the hell are we suppose to argue about this reasonably if you can't even stick with your same opinion from post to post?


25-30 of those games were as a defensive replacement late in games, he didn't even get AB's alot of the time. Thats why he played in 87 games, with only a 177 AB's. Pagan got sick in early August, and the Cubs had to call up Pie again to be a back up in CF. Pie only got a chance to play everyday a week and half in early May, and for three weeks in June. Other then that he came off the bench last year, when he was in the big leagues. So getting Ab's as a pinch hitter isn't always the best thing for a 22 year trying to learn to adjust to ML pitching.

I don't really get what point you're trying to make here. This is just a long winded way to justify Pie's absolutely pathetic performance last year. Nothing more, nothing less.

You said that Pie only played in about 35 games last year, and as such, it wasn't he who contributed much to the overall poor production in Center Field. Well, he had nearly 200 PA's in CF(188).
In fact, here's the CF breakdown.
Jones-313 PA's .286 BA .333 OBP
Pie-188 PA .216 BA .274 OBP
Pagan-100 PA's .240 BA .297 OBP

So I guess my point is, I don't understand how you seem to think that A-Pie's going to be the everyday CF'er all year long, and B-How even if he is, he's going to be even CLOSE to as good as their CF production was last year, which was overall poor.

So now we go from the Cubs having all these huge upgrades from several different positions to both RF and CF likely be downgrades from last year. And before you go back and say how everyone projects Fukudome to be so good, can you please explain to me why it matters what OTHER people project the Cubs players to be despite absolutely no experiance, or very little experiance such as is the case with Soto and Fukudome, both players you've blindly defended because of "experts projections, and yet when it comes to the projections for the Brewers, you just ignore them and dismiss them without anything to back it up? I mean, you've dismissed nearly every projection for our starters, for Weeks, for Kendall...and you've had some reason to say they won't reach those numbers. So I don't get it. Basically, if it backs up the Cubs, it's they're experts, they're getting paid a lot of money, but when it's the Brewers it's, "nu-uh" and there is some reason to not believe the projections.


Did I make up those numbers for Fukudome? Nope that was MANY experts who get paid alot of money to judge baseball talent. I have never seen the guy play, so I'm going with the guys who get paid money to judge how good Fukudome will be. Thats all we have to go on right now, like it or not.

I don't think you've even given us any numbers. You just keep talking about how big of an upgrade he'll be.
And this is DESPITE the fact that he's coming off a major surgery and he's never played. But like I said, at the same time you argue the projection that Villanueva is going to have a 3.84 ERA, or Parra's projections based on the fact they're young.

So I guess that would make this easier. Why don't you tell me what you think his numbers will be? I haven't seen any numbers that suggest he's going to be significantly better, if any better than .293/.375, the Cubs RF'ers numbers from last year. If you did that, it may have more credibility than just saying, "he's a huge upgrade".


No matter what you think I said Pie will do offensivly, I don't expect huge improvements offensivly next year. For the Brewers to improve the defense, they need huge improvements, not just some.

No, actually they just need ONE. They need to move Braun to the OF, and replace him with a 3rd basemen. That's it. They had one position that caused them to be below league average. If they improve 3rd base, they're overall defense will be just fine.


Anyway, like I said, I don't want to keep going back and forth, that's why I stopped posting initially. I've said my peace, and I'm sure you'll say yours...and unless you again take what I say and change it, I'll allow you the last word(I know that's important to you).

[TooLiveBrew]

Yea, they're certainly nothing like your gems. The Cubs are great, the Brewers are bad, end of story, and if need be, just say, "that's what everyone thinks".

And here's a clue. Offense matters as well. I know, a novel concept, but clearly I wasn't just talking about defense. In fact, did I even say anything about defense?

Pie hit .215 with a .271 OBP last year. Oh, and by the way, he played in 80 games in CF.
Jones last year hit .285 the last two years with OBP's of .335 and .334.

But again, another example of how facts don't matter. Yea, Pie will be a huge upgrade, no question about it. Please.

 

Gopher, you didn't really offer any explanation for your assumption that Pie won't be better than Jones defensively. He's the better defender from all accounts I've seen... and what I've seen myself (huge grain of salt served with that statement). I'd like to know what you're basing that on.

 

Check out Pie's track record beyond his small sample of MLB time last year. He's a really talented player, with plenty of tools. And, fwiw, in my humble estimation, Pie has a fantastic shot at matching or exceeding Jaque's .285/.335/.400/.735 line from 2007 - especially in the OBP category.

 

So I guess my point is, I don't understand how you seem to think that A-Pie's going to be the everyday CF'er all year long, and B-How even if he is, he's going to be even CLOSE to as good as their CF production was last year, which was overall poor.

 

He was 22 at MLB last year. If he'd randomly struggled even in AAA at that age, I'd still look at what he's done (.300/.358/.468/.826) as a very young man in the minors & expect him to bounce back even if he still weren't in MLB. The projections I've seen on him for 2008 have him above Jones's output from 2007 - even the more conservative ones.

[Ennder]

Wrigley played as a pitchers park in the 1st half but as an extreme hitters park in the 2nd half and overall most sources say it was a hitters park in the end.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wrigley is just so small in terms of OF dimensions, save the lines - which are well above league average if my estimations are correct. It's a funny park like how Fenway is funny... built to meet the space they had downtown(s) when the parks went up. It's so small through the power alleys that I'd be shocked if it wasn't a hitter's park.

 

If you threw a dome over Wrigley, a la Miller, would it be an even better hitters' park? Or do the winds work out more in favor of the batters?

[valpocrewsader]

I can't believe anyone is giving baseballguy25 a hard time. He just presents another take, as valid as any other from what I can tell. Objective too, in my opinion. And amazingly he's been staying calm and cool-headed despite resistance that seems kindof rude at times. Personally, I wish there were more threads with contribution like this. Less "ra-ra, our young guys are all we need, yay Doug!" and more challenging ourselves to take a look at what we have and maybe not be very satisfied with it....

[Gopher74]

Gopher, you didn't really offer any explanation for your assumption that Pie won't be better than Jones defensively. He's the better defender from all accounts I've seen... and what I've seen myself (huge grain of salt served with that statement). I'd like to know what you're basing that on.

Check out Pie's track record beyond his small sample of MLB time last year. He's a really talented player, with plenty of tools. And, fwiw, in my humble estimation, Pie has a fantastic shot at matching or exceeding Jaque's .285/.335/.400/.735 line from 2007 - especially in the OBP category.

 

I don't offer any explanation because I never made the statement that he wasn't an upgrade defensively. In fact, I specifically said that I wasn't talking about defense, and that I was talking about overall.

 

2nd, he may very well reach those numbers, but I'm simply pointing out that baseballguy seems to question that Villanueva can be a good starter this year, that Parra is better than Gallagher, that Braun or Weeks will improve all because they're either young, or because of their past performance in the big leagues. In fact, he's made that argument many a time, yet he thinks that Pie will be an instant upgrade over Jones, and that he'll only be a slight downgrade from Hall. Well, using his logic of weighing last season very heavily, then you can't make that argument.

 

But again, I never, ever suggested that he wouldn't be a defensive upgrade. Of course he is.

He was 22 at MLB last year. If he'd randomly struggled even in AAA at that age, I'd still look at what he's done (.300/.358/.468/.826) as a very young man in the minors & expect him to bounce back even if he still weren't in MLB. The projections I've seen on him for 2008 have him above Jones's output from 2007 - even the more conservative ones.

 

I'm not sure what projections you're talking about, though I'd be curious to see them. The only one I look at is Bill James, and that one has him at nearly identical numbers. But again, my argument in that was specifically to the logic of baseballguy's argument. He doesn't agree with the projections for our pitchers, even saying that he doesn't think any of Cappy, Bush, or Suppan will reach them, but he's quick to point them out when they favor Cubs players.