Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[baseballguy25]

ok this is really silly, you are talking 8th best fantasy baseball C which uses a very unrealistic valuation from reality.

I know that was just one thing I just saw, but everything I have read are projecting quality catcher numbers for Soto.

 

there is also a good chance he'll be back in AAA by midseason.

 

Not with the Cubs, I think I heard he's out of options. So there going to give him every chance to do well next year.

 

 

The older you are at any given level and the more times you have seen it the less a good year means. This is pretty much a universal truth. A guy like Dillon who destroys AAA pitching at an older age when he has seen it 2 or 3 times is nowhere near the prospect that someone like Hart who destroys it at 22 his first time around is.

 

Soto wasn't really old for Triple A though, I believe he was just 24 last year. His first year in Triple A was at age 22. Some things I read about Soto, have said the reason why Soto never put up big numbers in the past, was because the Cubs rushed him through their system before he was ready. If Soto was older, I might agree with that. But it's silly to say Soto was VERY good in Triple A last year, because it was his third year there at age 24. Are you trying to say that if Soto played two years in Double A and two years in Triple A(instead of three years in Triple A), that he wouldn't have put up those numbers last year? If there was some theory on this for 24 year olds in there third year at Triple A having big years, don't you think BA, Rotoworld, and a bunch of other sites wouldn't be so high on him?

[TooLiveBrew]

I know that was just one thing I just saw, but everything I have read are projecting quality catcher numbers for Soto.

 

The reason we're very skeptical of Soto has nothing to do with that we inherently (or otherwise) think he's some scrub. It's that his BABIP last year was so high, it can't be treated as anything but a ridiculously skewed number. I don't think anyone here will really try to assert blindly that he's just overrated - it's that you can't really be sure of what to expect from Soto at MLB next year, since there isn't any relable data yet. If you took his BABIP & adjusted it to an average, or even above-average number, his AAA totals wouldn't be much over which to get excited.

[baseballguy25]

Don't you think BA and other sites took Sotos BABIP in to account though? Most of them are the people who invented that stat anyways. So I would think they would know how to judge it on what players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good point - they probably did, but I find it hard to believe that you can look at his AAA stats with the ridiculously high BABIP, and then just a handful of MLB at-bats, and say confidently that he'll mash at that rate. I think he's going to be a decent hitter at C for 2008, but there's no reliable way to tell just how good (or bad) imho.

 

For tangible proof of what I'm saying, his minor-league career line (over 2,000 TPAs) - which obviously even includes his ridiculous 2007 - is .279/.359/.426/.785. I'd say that's an awful lot more accurate than the 450-ish PAs from 2007.

 

Also, I'd like you to clarify what you mean about Soto being rushed to the point that you have to throw out a certain amount of weight to his actual production. What about 2006 at AAA, as a 23-y-o repeating the level, when he mustered .269/.351/.383/.734? I want to finish this edit by saying that I think Soto has a change to be an upper-half MLB C in 2008, but it's only fair for people to have their reservations.

[baseballguy25]

which obviously even includes his ridiculous 2007 - is .279/.359/.426/.785

 

I don't think Soto is going to be a superstar catcher, but I think he is going to be a quality everyday catcher. I think he will be a 270-280 hitter, 15-20 HR, 350's OBP, in the prime of his career. Will he do that next season? I dunno but I think he will be at least decent at plate for his postion next year.

 

 

Also, I'd like you to clarify what you mean about Soto being rushed to the point that you have to throw out a certain amount of weight to his actual production. What about 2006 at AAA, as a 23-y-o repeating the level, when he mustered .269/.351/.383/.734?

 

I just read stuff that Soto probably should have still been in A-ball still in 04, Double A in 05 and maybe even part of 06. For example Soto hit 242 with a 313 OBP in 03 in A-ball(age 20) but still got sent to Double A the next year. So some were saying that Soto finally caught up to things this past year. But thats just one reason for the huge improvement. Soto has said many times, that he thinks he improved so much because he lost 30 pounds last offseason.(which made his swing much quicker)

[Gopher74]

So in my eyes the guy figured something out last year.

He didn't figure anything out. He was in AAA for the third year in a row and finally produced. His minor league track record is uninspiring to say the least.

Trust me, you're banging your head against a wall. Soto's going to be a superstar. EVERYONE says so. No question about it.

 

[baseballguy25]

So in my eyes the guy figured something out last year.

He didn't figure anything out. He was in AAA for the third year in a row and finally produced. His minor league track record is uninspiring to say the least.

Trust me, you're banging your head against a wall. Soto's going to be a superstar. EVERYONE says so. No question about it.

 

 

Obviously you didn't just read the post above this? I said not a superstar!!! Why I'm I even responding to this dumb post. I even said I don't know if Soto will put up big numbers next year(what the experts are projecting), but I think he will be at worst decent offensivly for his postion(250-260, 10-12 HR,330- 340s OBP). I just need to stop paying attention to your comments.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't have the minor league data at hand, but Soto's BABIP at MLB last year was .486. No one, no matter what their ceiling, maintains that. Absolutely no one. When you take into accout that any projection system inherently has to include this incredible outlier, and use it in a formula to project success... you see how Bill James could forecast that Soto will bat .291 & have an OBP of .362 next year. Those are numbers he could perhaps reach in his peak, but not next year.

 

Take, for example, Rickie Weeks - prime example of the stats angle. James has him projected for an above-average offensive season in 2008, and that's largely due to injury issues that a finally behind Rickie. So, while Weeks is quite objectively poised for a 30-30 kind of season, the projections have him around .827 OPS... good, but not what he can likely post. The injuries & impact on his swing that appear to be behind him decrease his value, just as the incredibly high BABIP (both in AAA & MLB) inflate Soto's value.

[Ennder]

Bill James also projected Ryan Braun to put up MVP numbers and Gallardo to have a 3.16 ERA next season.

 

My point baseballguy25 is that if you are going to assume things work out for the Cubs like Fuku and Soto hitting their fantasy projections then you also have to assume that guys like Gallardo are better than Zambrano and Hill. You have to assume that Villanueva is going to post a 3.84 ERA as a starter (James again). Soto is a risk no question about it, regardless of what anyone projects him at he has not played a full season in the majors yet and all kinds of good and even great players flopped their 1st year or half year (which is almost a full year for a C) in the majors.

 

The reality is that projections on 1st and 2nd year players are generally unreliable. Villanueva could tank as a SP, Gallardo might just be good but not great, Soto might flop as a rookie, Fuku might have problems adjusting to the league. If you want to just play the projection game and use Bill James here is the Brewers starting rotation next season.

Gallardo - 3.16

Sheets - 3.55

Villanueva - 3.84

Capuano - 4.41

Suppan - 4.59

Bush - 4.26

 

If the Brewers get that out of their starters my guess is they make the playoffs given their offense.

[Brewtacular]

I am enjoying this debate. I respect this guys opinions and willingness to back up his views. This is a great, and civil, thread. Hope this guy keeps the debate going.

[ILuvDaBush]

So when do we get to talk about Charlie Marmelade? He has one good year after flopping bad the year before and everyone just assumes this kid is going to be the best reliever of either team? Much like Ned's use of Chuckie Newhouse, D-Bow was ridden ragged by the manager early in the season and was all but toast late in the year. GIve me 1st half T-Bow over ANY of the relievers on either team.

[mothershipconnection]

Iluvdabush, please try to make sure the nicknames are actually understandable, as it takes quite a while for me to figure out who you're talking about. "Villa", as far as I've seen it used in Spanish typically means town or village (though I just looked at a dictionary and the second definition can mean "casa", though I've never heard this used). Marmalade is mermelada, Marmol means "marble".

[logan82]

Chuckie Newhouse has been used before.

[ILuvDaBush]

I just meant that Marmol was a jam waiting to happen. The Northsiders swear by him as if the kid is Yo and has never failed. What I was getting at is that while he was absolutely dominating last year, so was CV. And while our newfound critic has made many suppositions about our own CV and questions his recent established success, Marmol gets the benefit of the doubt for about the same amount of IP (as a starter) after an abysmal showing the year prior.

[Gopher74]

I just meant that Marmol was a jam waiting to happen. The Northsiders swear by him as if the kid is Yo and has never failed. What I was getting at is that while he was absolutely dominating last year, so was CV. And while our newfound critic has made many suppositions about our own CV and questions his recent established success, Marmol gets the benefit of the doubt for about the same amount of IP (as a starter) after an abysmal showing the year prior.

Yea, I'm with ya. I've had my fill of this argument. Every time there's some debate over a player. If he's going to bounce back, if he's going to have a breakout year, if he's going to perform over his head once again, it's the Brewers player who "he's not sure on", and it's the Cubs player who "everyone says is going to be great". That's what's really very frustrating.

 

Just take some of the comments he made. He doesn't believe that Cappy, Bush or Suppan can even post ERA's in the mid 4's this year despite the fact that Cappy was at 3.99 and 4.03 the two previous years, Suppan was at 4.12, 4.16 and 3.67 the previous three, and Bush was in the mid 4's as well the previous year. None of those guys are going to bounce back, however the Cubs starters who all performed over their heads are going to have seasons as good, if not better, Soto's going to be great next year, yet Villy and Parra won't.

 

The Cubs offensive players such as DLee, Soriano, and Aram, despite being on the wrong side of 30(which apparently he thinks is 35, but not 32) are going to have even better years, Fukudome is going to break out and have a Ichiro like season, but with big power...

 

And like you said, I didn't even think to question Marmol. If he doesn't have a great year for the Cubs, they're going to be in trouble as I don't think that pen is anything special without him, and especially if Wood goes down. Then what do they have? Howry who's very good, and what? Wuertz? He's solid I guess. Eyre is a very good left hander, but again, he's certainly hittable and isn't a CL/SU type. Take Marmol out and the whole game changes.

[baseballguy25]

Wow ok


Did I ever say Marmol was going to be great again next year? If you wanna compare his 06-07 when the Cubs called him up from Double A(when he wasn't ready) and he was a starter to last season when he was a reliever thats fine. Like I said before with players having one quality year, you can always debate if they can do it again. The Brewers have a ton of those players, but I'm not gonna get into this stupid stuff. If you think it's unfair to think Carlos Marmol and his 1.43 era won't be good next year as a reliever, but Carlos Villanueva with a 4.77 era as a reliever won't be a great starter. Well thats fine with me. If you wanna call Wood a questionmark, I can say Gagne is equally a questionmark. Again more this is more stupid talk that I don't wanna have anything to do with.



The Cubs offensive players such as DLee, Soriano, and Aram, despite being on the wrong side of 30(which apparently he thinks is 35, but not 32) are going to have even better years, Fukudome is going to break out and have a Ichiro like season, but with big power...

Wrong side of 30 crap is stupid. How about you give me a list of Allstar type players who numbers dropped off alot at age 30-32 without huge injury problems in the past? I bet it's pretty rare, and doesn't happen to often. I bet I could give you a bigger list of hitters putting up big numbers at ages 30-32. So this is a pretty poor reason on why those players won't be as good or better next year. Plus it's not me who said Fukudome is going to have a break out yet. It's actually Nate Siliver, others at BP, Chone System, Zip system, a ton of baseball scouts, baseball teams and baseball experts basically. Infact I would like to see something that says Fukudome won't be good next year? Could he be bad next year, sure anything is possible. But It's unlikely with so many so high on the guy in IMO.


Just take some of the comments he made. He doesn't believe that Cappy, Bush or Suppan can even post ERA's in the mid 4's this year despite the fact that Cappy was at 3.99 and 4.03 the two previous years, Suppan was at 4.12, 4.16 and 3.67 the previous three, and Bush was in the mid 4's as well the previous year. None of those guys are going to bounce back, however the Cubs starters who all performed over their heads are going to have seasons as good, if not better, Soto's going to be great next year, yet Villy and Parra won't.

Are you slow or something? Where did I say Soto would be great next year? Where did I say Cubs pitchers will be as good next year or better next year? I said Lilly will have a drop off but not a huge one, my reason is he was a 4-4.30 era pitcher in the AL his final 4-5 years there(when healthy). If you knew anything about the AL-NL the hitters aren't as good in the NL, and that DH thing also helps alot. Lilly was extra good last year because the NL hasn't seen him, but he should be a 4-4.15 era pitcher still next year. As for Rich Hill, why wouldn't he be as good? He's been a quality pitcher since August 06. To say he won't be good is like saying JJ Hardy or Corey Hart won't be as good next year.(unfair don't you think). Marquis is a questionmark, but he's also been good mid to bottom of the rotation starter, three of four years, but I think he will be as good either next year. All I can say about Zambrano is how did he perform over his head last year? The Cubs rotation doesn't have to be as good next year they were second in the league last year(4th overall in baseball), so even if it drops off some they should still be top 5-7. Plus you don't think Soto, Pie and Fukudome(all good defenders), won't help that pitching staff just a little? Compared to what they had last year defensivly in those spots?


I gave you my reason why Bush, Capuano and Suppan won't be alot better next year, and thats because the horrible Brewers defense hurt them ALOT last year, and it hasn't improved. Put any of the Cubs pitchers on the Brewers, and their numbers won't be nearly as good either. Put Capuano on the Padres, Suppan back on the Cardinals or Bush on Mets or whatever teams and they would be better. So If those guys went to other teams, or the Brewers improved their defense ALOT then I would say yes all three guys numbers could improve alot next year. They can pitch better and improve some, but I don't see them pitching close to what they did before 07 until they have better people catching the ball behind them.



Like I said before I'm not a Cubs fan, or would ever I root for the Cubs. This is my opinion as a baseball fan, and trust me many baseball fans of other teams feel the same way I do about these players I mentioned. But I'm not gonna waste anymore time defending the Cubs players to you guys, or try to convince you that you overrate your own players, I could careless what the Cubs or Brewers do in 08. This is my opinion, think what you wanna think about your team.

PS-Since this thread is about the Cubs partly, I read on a Orioles Message board a few hours ago that Brian Roberts is on the verge to be traded to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno, Sean Gallagher and Sean Marshall. I dunno how good these guys with sources are, but I guess they called the Tejada to the Astros trade, before it happen. I'm not so sure thats a good trade for the Cubs or not, because that hurts their SS(unless DeRosa plays some short) and SP depth overall. So that might be a plus for you guys. But one of the guys with a Cubs source on there board said the Cubs will then turn their attention on trading for AJ Burnett to replace Marshall.(or possibly Blanton). So it doesn't sound like the Cubs are done yet this offseason, it seems like they still plan to add a few more pieces. But I'm sure the Brewers aren't done making moves yet either. So these moves over the next month or so could have alot of meaning on who wins the division next year.

[baseballguy25]

I know I have defended the Cubs alot in this thread, and thats because I think there the better "team " right now. The Brewers have just as much talent if not more, but they still haven't fixed their biggest weakness from last year IMO. Thats horrible defense, and a horrible manager. Yost doesn't look like he's going anywere, unless the Brewers are bad next year, so there gonna have to live with him. But the defense needs a to be improved alot, and I mean more then just moving Braun to Left. So that means they need to give up some offense to improve the team.

 

 

 

First of all Jason Kendall was a bad signing, because he's about as bad as Estrada was defensivly, and was even worse offensivly last year. Sure you could hope that he rebounds to what he use to hit at age 34, but still doesn't help you defensivly. The smart thing to do would have been bring in a strong defensive catcher, and not worry about what he hits. Braun obviously needs to be moved off third base as well, I guess you can put him in left. He probably won't be so good at first out there either, but he will hurt the team less out there. But Bill Hall should be moved out of CF as well, by watching him play last year in CF the Brewers could use a upgrade. So If I was Doug Melvin or Ned Yost, I would move Hall to third, Braun to left, bring in a good defensive CF(possibly Corey Patterson), and a good defensive catcher or even start Mike Rivera. This way you improve the defensivly in three postions, and possibly four if Braun is solid in Left. Yeah I know the bottom of the Brewers line-up won't hit much, but with Weeks,Hardy,Braun,Fielder, Hart and Hall the Brewers should still score around 800 runs or more. But the pitching will be much better, so hopefully the Brewers will have alot bigger leads and Yost won't cost them so many games with his poor bullpen management. But until the Brewers improve in those parts, I can't pick them to win the division over the Cubs especially how they improved offensivly and defensivly this offseason. So please stop calling me a Cubs fan or having Chicago bias, I think I have a valid reason for picking the Cubs. But the Brewers situation can be fixed it's just up to management to do it, if they decide to bring in Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green or a player like that to play LF their in trouble IMO.

[Ennder]

Hall was fine in CF in the second half, not really worried about him there. Braun at 3B is responsible for the Brewers defense last year, the rest of the team overall was about average. Fielder, Hall and Weeks were all below average but Counsell, Hardy and Jenkins made up for it. It was really just Braun that dragged them down. If we sign a 3B and move Braun to LF most of the defensive issues take care of themselves.

 

As for Kendall it is a 1 year deal unless he plays full time so if he is stinking they can still just demote him and play Rivera/Munson. It is a pretty low risk signing.

 

Here would be my position by position comparison. I'll give a range, the first value is my expectation but the 2nd value is very plausible too.

 

1B - Push. Fielder is a slightly better hitter, Lee is a better fielder.

3B - Push. Braun will BB more but lose some SLG, his defense should improve and I don't buy Aramis as above average. In the end they are pretty even.

LF - Push. I like to keep similar players together when I can so I'm comparing Soriano vs Hart here. Both are decent fielders, both can run well, both can hit for power. Hart was better than Soriano last year and has better career rates but Sori is more proven.

CF - Push-Slight Brewers. Hall improved in the field a lot in the 2nd half and has shown more at the major league level. Pie probably has more real breakout potential though.

2B - Push-Slight Cubs. I'm gonna go ahead and assume they get Roberts. A full season of Weeks is as valuable as Roberts, more power, similar OBP, same speed. Roberts is a better defensive 2B though.

SS - Slight Brewers - Brewers. Hardy is better than Cedeno or Theriot offensive and is as good or better in the field.

RF - Slight Cubs. I don't know who the Brewers will have out here just yet but it is hard for me to get too excited about Fukudome either. He is a complete unknown. My guess is he puts up Hideki Matsui rookie type numbers which are good but not great.

C - Push - Slight Cubs. Rookie C's are just impossible to project, as many fall flat on their face as have good years. The Cubs have no real backup for him either. Kendall is going to be somewhere between mediocre and bad and the Brewers don't have much in the way of backups either.

 

#1 SP - Brewers - Slight Brewers. Unlike others I'm talking Hill vs Gallardo here as I think those are the best pitchers on each team. Gallardo has more upside than Hill for sure and this could be a big advantage Brewers.

#2 SP - Slight Brewers - Push. Zambrano's stats are going the wrong way. If Sheets goes down we probably see Parra who is likely to be close to Zambrano in my opinion so overall I'd say it is a slight advantage Brewers but easily could end up a Push too.

#3 SP - Push - Slight Cubs. Lilly had a career year last year, he has never kept his BB's that low before and it is more than just a league change, he has also rarely been healthy a full season. Villanueva is an unknown but he has more upside than Lilly so that offsets the risk factor.

#4 SP - Push. Suppan vs Marquis, two boring pitchers who are just innings eaters. I like Suppan a tiny bit more but not enough to worry about it.

#5 SP - Slight Brewers - Brewers. Bush/Capuano vs Dempster. Dempster has never been good as a SP and assuming the Roberts deal is done the Cubs don't have any other strong options. One of Bush/Capuano will come back to 2006 numbers.

 

Bullpen - Slight Cubs. Both teams are going with injury question marks at closer most likely. Riske and Howry are pretty comperable. I like Shouse more than Eyre. Marmol is probably better than Turnbow but his BB's in the 2nd half create a real worry about his future. Wuertz is probably a hair better than Torres. I don't see a huge advantage either way but the Cubs are more likely to have an advantage in the long run.

 

Bench - Slight Cubs. DeRosa gives the Cubs a nice utility guy and having Murton on the bench is nice. Counsell is a great fielder still but he cannot hit a lick and the Brewers really don't have anyone that I like to step up and put up big numbers if someone goes down with an injury.

 

The two teams are pretty evenly matched. Brewers have a clear advantage at SS and I think they have better top end pitching with Gallardo and Villanueva for a full season. The Cubs have a stronger bullpen and Bench and some slight advantages elsewhere that offset whatever advantages the Brewers have. I don't think the Roberts deal would really be a huge advantage for the Cubs so if it doesn't happen I don't see the overall opinion changing much.

[Tbadder]

Geez...I hope they don't land Roberts as well.

 

I'm with Baseballguy25 as of now--the Cubs just look better. I'm glad there's a long way to go before rosters are really set, and in truth I think we have till the All-Star break to make all our moves, but...

 

I think the Brewers are too much a collection of hitters, which isn't bad; it's the most important aspect for an everyday player, but it seems to stop there. And when some of our top prospects like Gamel and LaPorta seem like "merely" great hitters, well, at times it feels as if Milwaukee is Texas Rangers Jrs.

[TooLiveBrew]

First of all Jason Kendall was a bad signing, because he's about as bad as Estrada was defensivly, and was even worse offensivly last year.

The OBP Kendall brings is where the improvement lies. Others really think his intangibles/attitude will be an important factor too, but I'm not sure if I'm fully sold on that or not. The lineup we have needs OBP, and to fill one of the two holes heading into 2007, DM & Co. improved greatly.

 

2B - Push-Slight Cubs. I'm gonna go ahead and assume they get Roberts. A full season of Weeks is as valuable as Roberts, more power, similar OBP, same speed. Roberts is a better defensive 2B though.

 

Coming off being exposed in the Mitchell Report, I'd be surprised if Roberts puts up a season in line with what he's done in his career in 2008. I'd almost welcome the Cubs aquiring him, since I think there's a good chance his offense falls off a cliff in '08.

 

3B - Push. Braun will BB more but lose some SLG, his defense should improve and I don't buy Aramis as above average. In the end they are pretty even.

No offense, I just don't know how you arrive here, but how is Ramirez anything below above-avg.? (honest question)

 

CF - Push-Slight Brewers. Hall improved in the field a lot in the 2nd half and has shown more at the major league level. Pie probably has more real breakout potential though.

I think Hall will put together a nice full season out in CF - somewhere around 25 HR, with average to above-avg. defense. Pie is probably still a year away from breaking out offensively, but he's likely to start showing some major signs this year. He's been projected around a .800 OPS for 2008 from what I've seen, and that sounds about right - not bad for a year where he'd likely just start to emerge. I just hope we don't see his breakout year in 2008.

[fondybrewfan]

I think this year will be a crapshoot between the Reds, Cubs, and Brewers. There is probably no relevance in doing a position by position analysis because it is almost a certainty that some players will out perform and some will underperform. The team whose players overperform the most will probably win because the talent levels are pretty similar. I like to think that gives the Brewers the edge just because none of our young guys have reached their peak yet, thus the likelihood of them over performing is probably greather than someone like Lee, Ramiriez, Soriano, Dunn, or Griffey. The Reds have a lot of youn talent as well but they are about a 1 year behind the Brewers in experience and we have seen first hand what experience can do for a team. I think the division will be much better this year with the winning team having over 90 wins. If Sheets can somehow make 28-32 starts I think we have the edge especially if Gallardo continues to be awesome and there are no drastic dropoffs by any of our core players, which I dont foresee happening. Prince's HR production will probably drop because 50 home run seasons arent exactly easy, but I could also see him improving his RBI totals since his RISP was relatively low. A full year of Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun starting certainly isnt going to hurt. Obviously if anyone gets hurt you can throw everything out the window

[Ennder]

3B - Push. Braun will BB more but lose some SLG, his defense should improve and I don't buy Aramis as above average. In the end they are pretty even.

 

No offense, I just don't know how you arrive here, but how is Ramirez anything below above-avg.? (honest question)

 

Sorry I meant as a fielder. He was below average his entire career until last year where he suddenly was an above average fielder. I don't think the difference in fielding will be as big next season as it was last season and Braun will be more productive offensively and on the bases so it is a Push overall.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, thanks. Ramirez is a guy that gives Brewers fans hope for Braun's defense at 3B - I just don't know if Braun ironing out his fielding at 3B fits into the team's short or long-term plans.

[baseballguy25]

Coming off being exposed in the Mitchell Report, I'd be surprised if Roberts puts up a season in line with what he's done in his career in 2008. I'd almost welcome the Cubs aquiring him, since I think there's a good chance his offense falls off a cliff in '08.


Aren't you worried about Gagne being on the Mitchell report? Roberts had Larry Bigbie say that Roberts at first said no to HGH, but then later admitted to trying it out once. He had very little against him in that report, and it was nothing compared to Gagne. So I don't get why you think his projection will fall off the cliff? I think thats more Brewers fans hope(if the Cubs get him) then anything else.



If you guys are comparing the overall value hitters/defenders your missing the point. Defensivly the Cubs are much better at every postion(but probably SS), and last I heard Hart was playing RF, not LF. You can question Soto, Pie and Fukudome as hitters if you want, but there's no reason to believe they should lose their defensive skills in the majors. For example the Cubs have a fast OF with guys who all have very good throwing arms. Hall might have been solid in CF in the second half, but I dunno if you can say he's a quality defender. My point was if the Brewers have bad or average defenders in some spots, they need to get really good defenders in other spots to make up for the bad spots. How many runs score doesn't matter if you allow alot of runs. For example the Cubs scored 752 runs and gave up 690(pythagorean record 87-75), while the Brewers scored 801 runs, but gave up 776 runs(pythagorean record 83-79). So like I said before the Brewers need to give up some offense, and focus more on defense to help the SP and relievers.



As for the pitching comparison I'm not going to really get into that, because it seems very pushed towards the Brewers. Gallardo over Hill?? Slight edge Brewers? It very easily could happen, but as of right now it's a little unfair to give one guy a edge who had a 3.67 in 17 starts(20 games) over a guy who had a 2.93 last year in the second half in 06(12 starts-13 games) and a 3.92 era in 32 starts in 07. Brewers slight edge of Sheets vs Zambrano? Sheets when healthy didn't pitch much better then Zambrano last year, and Zambrano was alot more valueable because he started 10 more games and had almost 80 more IP. Not to mention Zambrano was much better then Sheets in 03,05 and 06, and even in 2004 the numbers were pretty close Sheets 2.70 era, Zambrano-2.75 Era. I know you think Zambranos falling from grace or whatever but I can't imagine anyone would pick Sheets over Zambrano with Sheets health problems the last 3 years. I agree I would rather have Suppan then Marquis, but Marquis has been better then Suppan two of the last four years.(including last year) But again if you think the Brewers rotation is this much better thats your opinion. But I feel its's pretty unfair when you look at the huge difference in numbers between the staffs last year.

[areacodes]

As for the pitching comparison I'm not going to really get into that, because it seems very pushed towards the Brewers. Gallardo over Hill?? Slight edge Brewers? It very easily could happen, but as of right now it's a little unfair to give one guy a edge who had a 3.67 in 17 starts(20 games) over a guy who had a 2.93 last year in the second half in 06(12 starts-13 games) and a 3.92 era in 32 starts in 07.

 

 

But again if you think the Brewers rotation is this much better thats your opinion. But I feel its's pretty unfair when you look at the huge difference in numbers between the staffs last year.

 

How is it unfair for us to believe Gallardo is better than Hill but it is ok for you to say the opposite? It doesn't seem like we can expect the Brewers to improve w/o being called bias or pushing the Brewers according to you.

 

And we're not the only ones who think that we have a better rotation than the Cubs. Lets go and use some "expert" opinions that you keep using to back up your points. SI.com rated the rotations in the NL and the Brewers came out 3rd with the Cubs coming out ranked 9th so its not like its some crackpot theory.