Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[Gopher74]

Ok but still, Ben Sheets can SAY he has a change up. Does that mean he does? No.

Don't mean to sidetrack the post, but actually, Sheets did develop a change last year. IMO, he was the most effective when he was mixing it in. He didn't throw it a lot, and he's still primarily a two pitch pitcher, but that change at times was nasty last year. Still, your points taken. Sorry to be difficulthttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

 

 

I think I speak almost everyone when it feels like you just came on here bashed the Brewers, stood up for the Cubs. Defended the Cubs like your own and talked down our prospects and team. As a huge Brewer fan you could of walked up to me and poke me in the eye and I probably would of got less worked up over it.

 

 

You definitely speak for me. Gallagher=Parra? Villanueva equal to or worse than Marshall? Gallardo equal to Hill? And it's not like he gives us any close ones, like a Sheets vs Zambrano, which, again, when healthy(which is now rare) is Sheets as a result of the control, but anyway. All the close ones-Cubs. All the ones that should be Cubs-Cubs. All the ones that SHOULD be Brewers-Cubs.

 

He didn't say the Brewers were better in ONE-SINGLE-SPOT in the rotation.

 

 

I never said I didnt want you to post here.

 

God no. Neither did I. (So alright, maybe the "God no" was a bit much) That's the point of these boards. To argue. It just so happens that you're wrong. Most people find that to be the case when arguing with me!

[ELCABALLO45]

Don't mean to sidetrack the post, but actually, Sheets did develop a change last year.

 

I know he did!!! I was just saying...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[baseballguy25]

First of all, what do you think a 2-3 is? Marshall and Gallagher are considered 4-5 type guys, so that he's considered a number 2 in and of itself should tell you something.

 

 

Number three these days is 3.90-4.30 era type pitcher these days. I believe Gallagher and Marshall are going to be at least that good. If you think there only 4 or 5s then your being pretty biased. Especially when Marshall has had success in the majors last year, and Gallagher has been pretty lights out in the minors.

 

You know, it's easy to say, "You're being a homer", but if I were to say that Dave Bush is better than Carlos Zambrano because I don't know anything about Z, I'm sure you'd argue it as well.

 

 

 

I admit I was wrong on Parra, and honestly never heard that much good stuff about him. Probably because he was hurt the last few years. So when you started saying ace potential, I was shocked because that was the first I heard it even from Brewers fans.

 

He's going to be solid, but he has a big loopy curve that's hittable if you know it's coming, and his velocity is very average. He's the quintessential "crafy left hander".

 

Again how well did hitters hit off Hill last year? I believe it was 235. So that loopy curve and very average velocity seems more effective then a crafty lefty would get. I think Rich Hill future is the biggest disagreement I have with you. I think it's debateable on Villanueva/Gallagher/Marshall or whatever, but I think Hill is going to be a quality (3.50-3.60 era) number two pitcher. It seems like you think less of him then that.

 

He's throwing 215+ innings just about every year and he throws a lot of pitchers

 

He's not the only pitcher who has thrown 215 plus inning over the last five years. I agree he threw alot of pitches before this year, but Piniella really limited his pitch count this year. It was just the usual Dusty Baker overuse in years past though. I just find it hard to believe this guy isn't going to be good as he was in 03-06 anymore at age 26.

 

All three of them were significantly worse than they have been for their careers. But either way, our defense will be better.

 

This is the kinda biased stuff I'm talking about. There's no reason to believe the Brewers defense will be better as is. I don't see Braun being better, Hall being better(don't think he's a CF), or Weeks/Fielder will be much better. I seen enough of Kendall to know he's really bad defensivly these days. Moving Braun to LF will help alot(but he will probably be bad in LF to, at least next year), but still won't make them a good defensive team. IF they actually keep Braun at third and add someone like Luis Gonzalez the pitching staff could be worse.

 

 

I don't know if you're a Cubs fan, but you've most definitely got some Chicago slant going on, and you're not very well informed about the Brewers. One would think that would make you hesitant to argue about them, or give us your opinion about them. Sadly that's not the case.

 

 

I don't think I have a Chicago Slant going on. If I think there just as talent and a better "team" makes me have a slant? I'm sorry but just because I think agree with what you guys are saying about your team doesn't mean I favor the Cubs. I would love to talk about Brewers players with you guys, but ever since I defended a few Cubs players, you guys been attacking my opinion, because you feel the Brewers are so much better.

[baseballguy25]

I think I'm pretty informed about most of the Brewers players(Parra I got missinformation on), and I don't think I'm bashing the Brewers at all. What Brewer did I bash? Just because I say their equal or not as good as some Cubs players is bashing them?


I don't think saying Villanueva and Marshall are about equal is being negative against Villanueva. Marshall pitched pretty well last year and has good value. Just that some of you are acting like Villanueva is so much better, and I don't see it. I don't think saying Rich Hill could be a 3.60s era pitcher, and him and Gallardo will put up simliar numbers is bashing Gallardo either(especially in his first full year). I did say Gallardo would be better long term, but for next year I think things should be even. The Cubs pitching was ranked 2nd in the NL last year, and 4th in all of baseball.(with their ace having a poor year). With the improved defense and the same rotation, I don't see a major dropoff. Am I really favoring the Cubs by saying their pitching will be better next season? Most baseball fans/experts will probably agree with that. Other then that I just said if you guys were angry about Perry saying push or this guy is better then that the Cubs could debate some of Perry picks as well and that being Ramirez/Braun and DeRosa/Weeks. You guys disagreed with the DeRosa/Weeks but the numbers are close, so it is somewhat debateable. I'm not saying any of these Brewers players are bad, but I just disagree with some of you guys on how good these players are, and think some are favoring the Brewers players a little much.


I do think the Cubs should be the favorites they won the division last year, and are better right now then they were at the end of the season, and the Brewers didn't add anything yet to jump past them IMO(and still have the same problems Yost/ bad defense as last year) Again the Brewers could win the division, and I hope they do. I just don't get were you guys are saying I'm bashing the Brewers, just because I'm not praising these guys as much as you guys are and giving the Cubs some credit for being good doesn't mean I'm bashing the Brewers.

[Gopher74]

I don't know if you're a Cubs fan, but you've most definitely got some Chicago slant going on, and you're not very well informed about the Brewers. One would think that would make you hesitant to argue about them, or give us your opinion about them. Sadly that's not the case.

 

 

I don't think I have a Chicago Slant going on. If I think there just as talent and a better "team" makes me have a slant? I'm sorry but just because I think agree with what you guys are saying about your team doesn't mean I favor the Cubs. I would love to talk about Brewers players with you guys, but ever since I defended a few Cubs players, you guys been attacking my opinion, because you feel the Brewers are so much better.

Number three these days is 3.90-4.30 era type pitcher these days. I believe Gallagher and Marshall are going to be at least that good. If you think there only 4 or 5s then your being pretty biased. Especially when Marshall has had success in the majors last year, and Gallagher has been pretty lights out in the minors.

 

Seriously, you need to knock it off with the word "biased". What I'm saying actually COMES from somewhere. Second, you convientantly use the worse case when compilling your little prospective ERA there. Parra's got the stuff to be an ace. There's simply no question about that. Again, this is you talking when you admittedly don't really know anything about him. Anyway, a number 2 is a 16 win, 3.25-3.50 type guy. I'm sorry to break it to you, but that is NOT what Gallagher and Marshall are.

BA calls Marshall a number 4/5 type guy. But it's funny, when he pitches well, then it means he's going to be great. When Villanueva does it, well, then it's "only" however many starts. Doesn't matter that Villy was absolutely dominant last year in the first half, and to close the season having what amounts to ONE bad month as a result of fatigue, nope. He's not a Chicago player.

 

And by the way, you have a funny definition of "lights out". Gallagher was a decent minor league pitcher. He didn't even get a K per IP down in AA or AAA, and his BB/K ratio was poor. I don't know what makes you think he's a middle of the rotation type of guy, but you're all alone in thinking that. He's simply not anything special. I doubt if he ever becomes a regular starter. And YOU wanna talk about "bias"?

I admit I was wrong on Parra, and honestly never heard that much good stuff about him. Probably because he was hurt the last few years. So when you started saying ace potential, I was shocked because that was the first I heard it even from Brewers fans.

 

Well, I guess it would have to be because he was injured, but he was a very highly touted prospect for a while, and even when he went down, it's not like they gave up on him and he came out of nowhere. Right now, they probably have the best 1-2-3 trio of young pitchers they've had in a very long time.

 

Again how well did hitters hit off Hill last year? I believe it was 235. So that loopy curve and very average velocity seems more effective then a crafty lefty would get. I think Rich Hill future is the biggest disagreement I have with you. I think it's debateable on Villanueva/Gallagher/Marshall or whatever, but I think Hill is going to be a quality (3.50-3.60 era) number two pitcher. It seems like you think less of him then that.

Ok, so again, when it comes to Villy, the leagues going to figure him out, yet with Hill, that's not the case? Heck, THEY ALREADY DID. He wasn't very good in the second half last year. And Doug Davis struck out 206 two years ago with the Brewers. Sure didn't mean he was a dominant lefty. I'd say Rich Hill and Capuano are about equal. All things considered, they've got comparable stuff. I'll admit though, on THIS ONE, that's my own personal opinion. But look at Capuano's numbers from 05 and 06. I could very easily see Hill blowing up, especially given the fact that he doesn't seem mentally tough.

And like I said, I think Hill's about what Cappy is. A 12-14 game winner, 3.90-4.20 ERA type guy. I guess I just don't know when you think this big breakthrough is going to come that makes him an ace. It's very rare that a pitcher, after the age of 27 becomes dominant. Hill's a poor man's Barry Zito. I don't know, tell me what makes him so tough? I know we rocked him last year when we facted him.

He's not the only pitcher who has thrown 215 plus inning over the last five years. I agree he threw alot of pitches before this year, but Piniella really limited his pitch count this year. It was just the usual Dusty Baker overuse in years past though. I just find it hard to believe this guy isn't going to be good as he was in 03-06 anymore at age 26.

 

Actually, that's not the case at all. Zambrano threw more pitches last year than he ever has in his career. If anything, Lou overused him even worse than Baker did. And again, I'm not making the argument he will or won't be good next year. That was someone else. I'm just agreeing in that he's progressively gotten incrementally worse the last few years. And now with a big contract, a guy who already is over weight making 90 million dollars and has an attitude problem? I'll bet money that he misses several tarts the next couple years.

 

 

This is the kinda biased stuff I'm talking about. There's no reason to believe the Brewers defense will be better as is. I don't see Braun being better, Hall being better(don't think he's a CF), or Weeks/Fielder will be much better. I seen enough of Kendall to know he's really bad defensivly these days. Moving Braun to LF will help alot(but he will probably be bad in LF to, at least next year), but still won't make them a good defensive team. IF they actually keep Braun at third and add someone like Luis Gonzalez the pitching staff could be worse.

 

Oh knock it off already. Yea, there's NO reason.

First of all, I've read enough of what YOU'RE written to know that I'm never going to take "what you've seen" for anything. Pitchers talk about how well Kendall handles a staff, and his CERA is much better than Estrada's. That's a big improvement. I don't know what you're talking about with Hall, but he improved a LOT out there from the first half to the second half. Others on here have cited the actual stats and the sources, but he was well below league average the first half of the year and above the second half.

 

The BIGGEST thing is the Brewers are looking for a 3rd basemen and are going to move Braun to the OF, but even if they don't, again, you know players DO improve. Look at ARam as a young players. Look how much Weeks improved.

 

But somehow in your world me saying that the defense WILL IMPROVE with either Braun moving to LF, or just the improvement that can be expected from a rookie 23 year old, does not mean what it does in your translation of things, which is me saying the defense will be good. Get that through your head real quick. I simply said they'll improve, and again, despite what "you've seen", Kendall's a significant upgrade defensively over Estrada, and pitchers love working with him as opposed to Estrada who pitchers hated.

 

I don't think I have a Chicago Slant going on. If I think there just as talent and a better "team" makes me have a slant? I'm sorry but just because I think agree with what you guys are saying about your team doesn't mean I favor the Cubs. I would love to talk about Brewers players with you guys, but ever since I defended a few Cubs players, you guys been attacking my opinion, because you feel the Brewers are so much better.

 

 

And again, the "Woe-is-me" line again. You come up with some things that just come flying out of left field talking about things that you clearly have no clue about, and then when you're corrected, you see if you can set some sort of record for using the word bias.

 

And you just keep coming back with the same thing over and over, and it was ridiculous from the start. So I'll wait with baited breath to see how many times you can talk up fringe prospects, dismiss our players, and use the term bias while taking what I say, and either taking it out of context, or just completely turning it around.

 

Until then.......

[baseballguy25]

but I'm sure if I argued that Tony Gwynn Jr was better than Nick Swisher, Luis Pena was better than Bobby Jenks, Brad Nelson was better than Paul Konerko, you'd respond in kind.

 

 

 

 

The only think I was far off on was Parra/Gallagher and thats because I got wrong info on Parra. But there was nothing wrong with saying Hill and Gallardo will put up simliar numbers next year, in fact Bill James says they will. Same thing goes with Marshall, the guy is still young had a 3.92 era, and a 2.08 era in the minors in 23 starts(25 games) last year. I think his era will go up to the 4.20-4.30 range, but do you really think Villanueva is going to be much better then that? I just don't see it and I haven't found many things that would say Villanueva would be better then that. So I don't get were I'm so far off saying this crappy player is better or as good as your good player? You sure you aren't overrating your players, because I think you kinda are.

[Gopher74]

I think I'm pretty informed about most of the Brewers players(Parra I got missinformation on), and I don't think I'm bashing the Brewers at all. What Brewer did I bash? Just because I say their equal or not as good as some Cubs players is bashing them?

 

 

I don't think saying Villanueva and Marshall are about equal is being negative against Villanueva. Marshall pitched pretty well last year and has good value. Just that some of you are acting like Villanueva is so much better, and I don't see it. I don't think saying Rich Hill could be a 3.60s era pitcher, and him and Gallardo will put up simliar numbers is bashing Gallardo either(especially in his first full year). I did say Gallardo would be better long term, but for next year I think things should be even. The Cubs pitching was ranked 2nd in the NL last year, and 4th in all of baseball.(with their ace having a poor year). With the improved defense and the same rotation, I don't see a major dropoff. Am I really favoring the Cubs by saying their pitching will be better next season? Most baseball fans/experts will probably agree with that. Other then that I just said if you guys were angry about Perry saying push or this guy is better then that the Cubs could debate some of Perry picks as well and that being Ramirez/Braun and DeRosa/Weeks. You guys disagreed with the DeRosa/Weeks but the numbers are close, so it is somewhat debateable. I'm not saying any of these Brewers players are bad, but I just disagree with some of you guys on how good these players are, and think some are favoring the Brewers players a little much.

 

See, this is what's funny. You list a couple things and just kinda shrug your shoulders, and say, "who, me"?

I mean, you don't even realize how big of a homer you are. Take for instance your stance on the Cubs. You even said that the Cubs were going to close the gap on the Brewers because of all the players on the Cubs last year who didn't perform up to expectations. Because of ARam, Soriano, Lee....ect..ect.. All those players are BOUND to bounce back. Yet at the same time, Cappy, Suppan and Bush, three who were well below their career norms, and their recent norms, well, you don't think any of those players will improve.

 

The fact that Hall had a down year last year, that we now get Braun and Hart in the starting lineup for a full season, that Weeks was dealing with a wrist injury last year(just wait to watch him because he's going to be in the Prince/Braun league by the end of the season), and we go from a guy with an OBP under .300 in Estrada, to a guy who's a very good OBP catch in Kendall. Those things don't matter, and the Cubs will close the gap on the Brewers.

 

So when it comes to our players bouncing back from down years, that's not going to happen...just...just because.

Yet when it comes to the Cubs players who are all on the wrong side of 30, and passing their primes, they're going to bounce back and all put up great numbers...ignoring the fact that all 3 had good seasons last year, and there isn't that much room for improvement from them, nor is it likely that they improve at their age. That's called not being objective. And yet you honestly think you are.

 

And really, stop telling us what most experts "Probably" think, especially when you're going to ignore what they REALLY do think, as in the case of Marshall and Gallagher being better than Parra and Villy.

 

The fact is, I believe it was Fox Sports Online just ran a story on the top rotations in the NL a couplle days ago and the Brewers came in 3rd behind the Pads and the D-backs. But that I'm sure is just hard for you to believe because all you hear about are the Cubbies down in Chicago, and clearly your knoweldge on the Brewers leaves a LOT to be desired.

 

 

Anyway, let me see if I've got this straight. The young players(Pie, Marshall, Soto) will all have great years, and be superstars. The older players(Dlee, Aram, Soriano) who didn't have AS great of years as they've had in the past last year will have even bigger years on the wrong side of 30, the pitchers who OUT-performed what was expected out of them(Hill, Lilly, Marquis, Marshall) are all going to do it again.

 

Meanwhile the Brewers players who had poor years last year for whatever reason(Weeks..who still had a good year overall, just not for his talent, Hall, Cappy, Suppan, Bush,) none of them will bounce back, they're all going to be as bad, if not worse, the good young players will fall off...ect...ect...ect...

 

Yea, you're just telling it like it is, right!

[baseballguy25]

BA calls Marshall a number 4/5 type guy. But it's funny, when he pitches well, then it means he's going to be great.

 

Maybe things have changed, but BA was calling him a 3-4 SP when he came up in 06, even though they were saying he was rushed that year(and he was).

 

 

When Villanueva does it, well, then it's "only" however many starts. Doesn't matter that Villy was absolutely dominant last year in the first half, and to close the season having what amounts to ONE bad month as a result of fatigue, nope. He's not a Chicago player.

 

Yes it has to do with playing in Chicago? How do you know it was fatigue? How about he was bad for a month? Villanueva ceiling was never super high(from what I have heard), the Brewers got him for Wayne Franklin? Yeah he's already better then the Giants ever thought he would be, but still. The reason I'm pointing out the limited starts factor is who knows how good he is as SP? For example Sean Marshall had a 2.12 era after his first five starts last year. His era was even at 3.10(12 starts) before he suffered though fatigue in August, and had one bad month. But Marshall has also made around 43 career starts in the major leagues already.

 

 

I don't know what makes you think he's a middle of the rotation type of guy, but you're all alone in thinking that. He's simply not anything special. I doubt if he ever becomes a regular starter. And YOU wanna talk about "bias"?

 

Seriously? Now your missed informed. Actually I have read more then a few BA articles(or chats) saying Gallagher is going to be a quality middle of the rotation guy, and he's the most likely Cubs SP prospect to make it in the majors but his ceiling isn't as high as some others. Jim Hendry was also said on the radio last week that he gets more calls on Sean Gallagher then any other prospect he has. So this guy does have good value and many are expecting good things. So whatever you heard you are wrong.

 

 

Ok, so again, when it comes to Villy, the leagues going to figure him out, yet with Hill, that's not the case?

 

Umm Rich Hill has been pitching in the majors since 2005, and made 17 starts in 06 as well. I think the league already would have caught up to Rich Hill by now. Rich Hill is going to pitch better early in the season usually IMO. The cold weather in Chicago is going to help him not give up many HR early in the season, which is harder to do in the summer when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. Again Villanueva made 12 career starts in two years, and had a 4.77 era as a reliever your really reaching for stuff now.

 

 

And like I said, I think Hill's about what Cappy is. A 12-14 game winner, 3.90-4.20 ERA type guy. I guess I just don't know when you think this big breakthrough is going to come that makes him an ace

 

You act like I'm crazy and making up these numbers for Rich Hill. Look up Bill James predictions or most experts predictions on Hill next year. Most say between 3.50-3.70 s, So it's not me making up these numbers. I never said Hill will be a ace just a good number 2.

 

 

The BIGGEST thing is the Brewers are looking for a 3rd basemen and are going to move Braun to the OF, but even if they don't, again, you know players DO improve. Look at ARam as a young players. Look how much Weeks improved

 

Ramirez improved but it didn't happen overnight either. I'm not saying Braun can't improve at some point, but he's unlikely to get much better by next season.

[baseballguy25]

I mean, you don't even realize how big of a homer you are. Take for instance your stance on the Cubs. You even said that the Cubs were going to close the gap on the Brewers because of all the players on the Cubs last year who didn't perform up to expectations. Because of ARam, Soriano, Lee....ect..ect.. All those players are BOUND to bounce back. Yet at the same time, Cappy, Suppan and Bush, three who were well below their career norms, and their recent norms, well, you don't think any of those players will improve.

 

 

Like I said before the Brewers pitchers have a reason for not bouncing back much, and thats DEFENSE!!!!!!. Derrek Lee hit very well last year, but his slugging should be better with his wrist 100 percent. His power came back in the second half as well Lee 16 HR second half, 6 HR first half. Ramirez played in 133 games, he can be better. Soriano had the worst month of his career in April(big contract, big city, new postion kinda thing), and missed most of August with a injury. But in four months of the season he hit 33 HR and drove in 68 RBI's out of the leadoff spot. His production for April and August was 1 HR and 2 RBI's . So you telling me there isn't room for improvement with these guys. The Brewers pitchers should improve some, but it won't improve to career numbers until they fix that HORRIBLE defense.

 

 

a guy who's a very good OBP catch in Kendall

 

He's a few years older then Lee/Soriano and his body has alot baggage from catching so many innings over the years. Plus he has a 300 OBP last year. He could have a better years next year, but I would be surprised if he hits higher 250s/320-330 OBP. But I don't know that for sure he just didn't look all that good for the Cubs last year besides a few weeks were he hit really well.

 

 

Yet when it comes to the Cubs players who are all on the wrong side of 30, and passing their primes, they're going to bounce back and all put up great numbers...ignoring the fact that all 3 had good seasons last year, and there isn't that much room for improvement from them, nor is it likely that they improve at their age.

 

LOL Ramirez is 30, and Lee/Soriano just turned 32 when is that the wrong side of 30. Isn't the wrong side of 30 close to 35 or so? These guys are still in their prime IMO. None had bad seasons last year, just none of them had big seasons. I find it hard to believe that those three are done having big seasons for the rest of their career.

[baseballguy25]

mean, you don't even realize how big of a homer you are

How am I a homer of a team I don't root for? I'm not the only one who think Lee/Ramirez/ Soriano can be better next year.


Meanwhile the Brewers players who had poor years last year for whatever reason(Weeks..who still had a good year overall, just not for his talent, Hall, Cappy, Suppan, Bush,) none of them will bounce back, they're all going to be as bad, if not worse, the good young players will fall off...ect...ect...ect...


When did I say Hall couldn't have a better year next year? I just said I don't see the pitching getting much better, because it was bad last year for a reason, and that reason hasn't been fixed yet.



When I said closed the gap offensivly I meant the Cubs will probably score 780-800 runs next year, and the Brewers will score 810-820. It was 801 to 753 last year, and I think adding Fukudome and young guys will help close the gap some. Will it happen for sure no, but from what we have to go on I think it could. This is what Nate Silver thinks of the Cubs offense.

Fukudome, RF
DeRosa, 2B
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Soriano, LF
Soto, C
Pie, CF
Cedeno, SS

…is a pretty good-looking lineup. PECOTA very much likes Geovany Soto and Felix Pie, by the way, and is reasonably warm on Ronny Cedeno. If the Cubs let these kids play-perhaps also integrating Ryan Theriot and Matt Murton in platoons of various kinds-this could quite easily be the best lineup in the National League

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699

So like I said before give the Cubs some credit.

And really, stop telling us what most experts "Probably" think, especially when you're going to ignore what they REALLY do think, as in the case of Marshall and Gallagher being better than Parra and Villy.

Yes they don't think much of Villanueva(or at least not as much as you think), and think more highly of Gallagher then you think. Obviously you don't know much about Cubs prospects either.


But seriously this is getting old, you aren't bring up any new points or good ones, and I'm pretty much repeating myself over because of that. So lets just agree to disagree and see what happends next year. Like I said before I hope the Brewers win it next year, I think it will be cool to see a new team in the postseason.

[baseballguy25]

Just wanted to say good luck next year guys, sorry if I pissed people off. I was just trying to giving my honest opinion, I'm sorry if some disagree.

 

 

But I think I'm done with this thread, nobody knows whats in store for next year, so it's silly to keep debating on this topic. Again best of luck to you guys.

[Ennder]

LOL Ramirez is 30, and Lee/Soriano just turned 32 when is that the wrong side of 30. Isn't the wrong side of 30 close to 35 or so?

 

Wrong side of 30 just means they are over 30. If they were on the right side of 30 they would be under 30. It is really hard to say what will happen next year, especially with guys like Villanueva, Fukudome, Soto etc who don't have strong track records. My guess is the Cubs score more runs but give up more runs as well (wrigley played as a pitchers park last year). My guess is the Brewers score roughly the same number of runs but give up fewer runs. Both teams are still pretty close to each other overall and it will be an injury or a breakout player or just the head to head games that probably decide who has the better record.

[mothershipconnection]

I don't think everybody is assuming that everything is going to go right for the Cubs and bad for the Brewers. The thing is that the Cubs have veteran proven players covering more spots than the Brewers do.

 

That's the big difference to me. The Brewers have a lot of things that could swing wildly in one direction or the other, while the Cubs have fewer question marks.

Hall - Will he continue to be merely acceptable, or return to dominant 2006 form?

Hardy - started last season as an offensive monster before fading. Will he settle in between the extremes or trend toward one or the other?

Fielder - Will he continue to be really good, or will experience make him even better?

Hart - See Fielder

Braun - Will he kill us on D by staying at 3B? How much will his stats drop (I don't see them improving: I think he regresses some or stays close to the same).

LF??????? Maybe someone decent, maybe a dung-pile.

Sheets - Healthy and amazing or hurt too much?

Gagne - Texas or Boston version? Hurt or healthy?

Gallardo - Continued progression of sophomore slump?

Bush - Will he ever live up to his secondary stats?

Parra - Still healthy and cracks the rotation with great performance or doesn't stay healthy?

 

If a lot of these things swing to one side or the other we may either win the division easily or maybe not even finish in 3rd.

 

 

LOL Ramirez is 30, and Lee/Soriano just turned 32 when is that the wrong side of 30. Isn't the wrong side of 30 close to 35 or so?

 

Huh? There are only two sides: below-30 and not below-30. It's not a synonym for the arbitrarily-defined "over the hill" or "past his prime".

[Ennder]

The Cubs have plenty of question marks of their own.

 

Zambrano - is he an ace or another young pitcher with too many IP on his arm too fast.

Lilly - Was the control for real or is he just another Capuano who flirts with it for 1 season.

Lee - Will the power come back or did the wrist sap it for good?

Aramis - was the above average defense for real or will he revert to below average.

Soto - who knows what a rookie C will do?

Fukudome - The next Hideki or the next Kazuo?

Pie - AAAA player or not?

Marmol - Next Broxton or next Turnbow? He has never shown strong control and had 5.1 BB/9 in the second half last year.

Wood - healthy finally?

DeRosa - Is he just another Brady Clark? This is a guy that never had an even halfway decent season until he was 31 years old

Theriot - was the month he was good a mirage or not? Outside of July he made Counsell look good at the plate.

 

The Cubs could easily have below average offensive production at CF, RF, SS, C and maybe even 2B next season. Every single one of those positions come with a real question mark.

[baseballguy25]

Lee - Will the power come back or did the wrist sap it for good?

 

His power already came back in the second half though, and thats why he still hit over 20 HR. He hit 16 HR with a 554 SLG in the second half so that tells me the power is back.

 

 

DeRosa - Is he just another Brady Clark? This is a guy that never had an even halfway decent season until he was 31 years old

 

DeRosa improved at the plate because he changed his whole batting stance in 2006. His new stance helped him become a more consistent hitter. It wasn't like he just got good out of nowhere he made a big change from what he use to do at the plate, and it made him a better hitter.

 

 

Wood - healthy finally?

 

Yes thats a questionmark, but equal to Eric Gagne. Gagne pitched 20 something more innings then Wood last year. But honestly Wood has pitched alot more innings then Gagne since 2004, but alot of that has to do with Wood starting games in 05-06 still. Plus you gotta feel kinda iffy about the HGH stuff with Gagne when the guy was great he was using HGH, so how good is he really now?

 

Marmol - Next Broxton or next Turnbow? He has never shown strong control and had 5.1 BB/9 in the second half last year

 

The Cubs could easily have below average offensive production at CF, RF, SS, C and maybe even 2B next season. Every single one of those positions come with a real question mark.

 

You can do that about every team, including the Brewers hitters. Most of there young hitters put up big numbers for the first time last year, can they do it again? So it's unfair to say the Cubs have question marks and not question some of the Brewers young hitters then. But I don't see the Cubs having real question marks at 2b, RF or C. DeRosa proved the last two years that he's a good everyday player shouldn't be questioned as of right now. Most experts are saying Soto will hit 270-290 with 13-20 HR next year, even if he's not that good. He should still be 250-260 hitter with a solid OBP and thats actually around the league average at the catcher postion. Same thing goes with Fukudome, there was a reason why at least five teams were throwing 10m plus at him. Most experts are predicting him to have between a 850-900 OPS next year. Even if he's not that good, odds are he's not going to suck and will still be a productive player. Plus if for some reason he turns into Kazuo Matsui(even though his stats are much better in Japan), the Cubs still have a pretty good hitter in Murton on the bench(as of right now).

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that Pie still hasn't proved he can hit major league pitching, but hasn't had much of a chance either. Theriot is never going to be a star, but like say Kendall if he could have a OBP between 340-350(which he did until the final three weeks of the season), he will be fine. I'm not so sure he's a everyday player but Piniella/Jim Hendry think he just ran out of gas last September. But BA and other sites still like Ronny Cedeno even though he has been horrible at the plate in the majors the last year and half.

[Ennder]

You can do that about every team, including the Brewers hitters. Most of there young hitters put up big numbers for the first time last year, can they do it again? So it's unfair to say the Cubs have question marks and not question some of the Brewers young hitters then

 

Oh I agree, I was just responding to the post showing that the Brewers have lots of question marks. Both teams do, it is not like the Cubs have a team of all proven veterans here. Lee, Ramirez, Soriano are pretty sure things but the rest of the lineup who knows.

 

Most experts are saying Soto will hit 270-290 with 13-20 HR next year, even if he's not that good. He should still be 250-260 hitter with a solid OBP and thats actually around the league average at the catcher postion

 

Experts said the same about Ianetta and Montero last year. Neither kept a starting role and neither were above average C's last season. Going into the season with a rookie C is a big question mark no matter what.

 

Same thing goes with Fukudome, there was a reason why at least five teams were throwing 10m plus at him. Most experts are predicting him to have between a 850-900 OPS next year

 

But again this probably isnt' the reality. He is coming off of major surgery. Hideki Matsui who was considered a better hitter posted a .287/.353/.435/.788 line his rookie year. That is probably as likely as anything else and who knows how healthy he'll be.

[ELCABALLO45]

Most of there young hitters put up big numbers for the first time last year, can they do it again?

 

 

The only thing I can think about this is. Prince Fielder was SUPPOSE to put up huge numbers right away and he did. Ryan Braun was SUPPOSE to put up huge numbers and he did. Fielder and Braun have been putting up huge numbers wherever they go. I dont know why it would change.

[logan82]

Don't forget Hart. All he has ever done is put up numbers and been on all star teams at every level he played at.

[ELCABALLO45]

Don't forget Hart. All he has ever done is put up numbers and been on all star teams at every level he played at.

 

I agree 100 % but like always I was overlooking him...

[davemakovec]

Don't forget Hart. All he has ever done is put up numbers and been on all star teams at every level he played at.

 

I agree 100 % but like always I was overlooking him...

Everybody always does...

Never Surrender!

[ILuvDaBush]

Imagine the argument a few years ago if Brewer fans would have argued Ben Hendrickson, fresh off of his Pitcher of the Year accolades in AAA, was better than Carlos Zambrano. He has a hammer curve! He can get his fastball up to 90 and he looks like he's trying to throw a changeup...nope, just his fastball again. Seriously, imagine an argument where we EXPECT Prince to progress as much from his soph to junior year as he did from his frosh to soph years. Imagine arguing that Braun's numbers SUFFERED last year because his defense got into his head. Now by no means do I EXPECT this, but I could argue it. Most likely, Prince will continue to mash like he did this year and Braun's OPS will fall 50-100 points. But I also think Hall is going to progress back to his 05-06 stats, Hart will probably improve a bit with a set spot in the outfield, and Hardy will put up an OPS of .850. As for our pitching, we could literally have the best staff in the NL...or we could have the best staff in the NL Central.....or we could have the second best staff in the NL Central. But there is such an abundance of talent in that rotation! As I stated earlier, we would match up quite well, even without our best pitcher in our rotation (Yo). All I can say to the Cub Fan is...Imagine Yovanni in your rotation. As the Bible states, "Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's goods!"

[baseballguy25]

But again this probably isnt' the reality. He is coming off of major surgery.

 

 

The surgery wasn't major, it was a clean up. Nothing with ligmants or anything like that. The media asked about this stuff, when the Cubs signed Fukudome. The Cubs said the surgery shouldn't have any effect on his play at all, and even Fukudome confirmed this, and even said he's 100 percent right now. So it was a minor surgery not a major one.

 

 

Experts said the same about Ianetta and Montero last year. Neither kept a starting role and neither were above average C's last season. Going into the season with a rookie C is a big question mark no matter what.

 

True but none of those guys put up close to good as the numbers Soto did last year either.(pitchers couldn't get him out in the minors or majors) I know those guys had better career minor league though. So in my eyes the guy figured something out last year. Well he be that good next year most likely not but he will be at worst solid for his postion IMO.

 

 

 

The only thing I can think about this is. Prince Fielder was SUPPOSE to put up huge numbers right away and he did. Ryan Braun was SUPPOSE to put up huge numbers and he did. Fielder and Braun have been putting up huge numbers wherever they go. I dont know why it would change.

 

Ahh I don't think people were predicting MVP numbers for Fielder so soon, or Braun would put up Pujols type numbers offensivly so soon. I would like to see one thing that what say they were SUPPOSE to put up huge numbers like those last season. They were suppose to be good, but not that good, so it's possible they could have some drop offs. Just like some of the Cubs young players who could have some drop offs as well.

[trwi7]

So in my eyes the guy figured something out last year.

He didn't figure anything out. He was in AAA for the third year in a row and finally produced. His minor league track record is uninspiring to say the least.

[baseballguy25]

So in my eyes the guy figured something out last year.

He didn't figure anything out. He was in AAA for the third year in a row and finally produced. His minor league track record is uninspiring to say the least.

Surprisingly only Brewers fans feel that way(wonder why), Rotoauthority ranks him the 8th best catcher in baseball right now. JR Towles another rookie catcher is actually ranked ahead of Soto(7th). But Soto did more then produce last year, he was one of the best players in Triple A(won the PCL MVP as well). Obviously people saw enough of this guy to know there's a good chance he's the real deal, to be hyping him up this much. I don't get why third year at Triple A matters either? Did the talent get worse for some reason? Or did Soto improve to be a major league quality hitter, and he was hitting in Triple A, so he dominated? Plus hit doesn't hurt that he hit 389 in 18 games in the majors last year either.

 

 

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/01/top-24-catchers.html

[Ennder]

Surprisingly only Brewers fans feel that way(wonder why), Rotoauthority ranks him the 8th best catcher in baseball right now

 

ok this is really silly, you are talking 8th best fantasy baseball C which uses a very unrealistic valuation from reality.

 

Obviously people saw enough of this guy to know there's a good chance he's the real deal

There is a good chance he is a great C, there is also a good chance he'll be back in AAA by midseason. That is the entire point of my comment. With a completely unproven rookie you don't know what you are getting.

 

I don't get why third year at Triple A matters either

The older you are at any given level and the more times you have seen it the less a good year means. This is pretty much a universal truth. A guy like Dillon who destroys AAA pitching at an older age when he has seen it 2 or 3 times is nowhere near the prospect that someone like Hart who destroys it at 22 his first time around is.

 

Lets assume Soto takes the Weeks path in the majors for a second. Weeks went through the minors faster than Soto, he posted a .897 OPS in the minors, his rookie year he had a .727 OPS in the majors. Soto posted a .785 OPS in the minors or over .100 points lower than Weeks. It is a real posibility that Soto sits at under a .700 OPS this season. This isn't some brewer fandom at play it just is baseball. Soto is probably as likely to post a .685 OPS as an .800 like the Cubs fans assume he'll do.