Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[rluzinski]

It's always fun to compare two teams, position by position. The problem is when someone tries to add up those results and say one team is better than the other by a margin of 14 to 11. It doesn't work that way.

[baseballguy25]

Does anyone think that Ted Simmons as bench coach will make a difference?


Only if Yost is fired midseason, and Simmons is made the manager. Yost is still going to do what he wants to do. Simmons will get him some advice how to do things, but it's up to Yost to listen. I'm sure many coaches told Yost to do things right last year, but he didn't listen.

[Oldcity]

Why are all these comparisons being written in January before the teams are finished making moves?! I don't understand it.

[Ennder]

I agree that Rich Hill will only improve, he is the teams ace. I disagree strongly that Zambrano will revert to 05/06 levels, he has shown a steady regression for 3 years now and I don't expect it to improve. Another copy of 2007 is more likely given his peripheral stats.

[Tbadder]

I think that some of the assessment is fair--and that's what's important--not what he gets wrong. Soto will be better than Kendall. Would anyone here trade Kendall for Soto? I rest my case.

 

Next, I think he's perfectly right about the starting pitching. Hill would be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher on our staff. Lilly would be the second or third best pitcher on our staff (1st if Sheets gets hurt). I think Marquis is now a push with Suppan in an everyday situation (in a playoff position or big game Suppan is better). And I don't think Cappy or Vargas will be as good as Dempster or Marshall. Bush might be if he steps up to the next level. In reality Villy and Gallardo could do just about anything including winning 15 games or being sent to the minors. My point is that the foundation of their rotation is more solid than ours.

 

And why would anyone get upset with the Soriano/Dillon comparison. I don't care who the Crew trots out their Soriano absolutely stomps him. (Obviously I'm saying this believeing that Braun won't move to LF).

 

The defense stuff he gets completely wrong. The Cubs aren't better, they're on a different planet they're so much better than we are. If we don't make strides, lets just agree to forget it right now.

 

I think rating Aramis behind Braun is curious.

 

I think he's basically got it right, but his reasons are really suspect or just plain wrong. If our potential lives up to it the Cubs and especially guys like him are gonna look bad.

 

The wild card as I see it for the Cubs is: A) Woods--I'm really skeptical here; I smell another injury, and B) Zambrano--I think he's got a chance to dominate. I'm guessing he's one of those complete idiots who has to feel respected thru money, and now that he's got a poo-ton, he'll settle down and take mythical revenge on the league. He could also commit murder by the All-Star break--we'll see.

[ELCABALLO45]

I don't think Rich Hill is that good, but thats just my opinion. One Pitch Rich. As long as you can time that curve ball I really don't seem him being a true "ace" but thats just my opinion.

 

And besides his freakish 2005 year, Derrek Lee has never knocked in 100 runs so its not a big deal when he doesnt.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about this....

 

C-Soto Kendall could put up a higher OBP but he won't equal Soto's power.

 

1B-The Regal One D-Lee puts up a better average, Prince puts up a better OPS.

 

2B-Weeks Once the wrist healed, the Rickie we drafted shined. Should be better than Hart....and I mean that in an outstanding way!

 

SS-Hardy Power, defense, charisma. He must hang out at the batting cages a lot.

 

3B-Ramirez Counting defense, Ramirez is better...but not by much defensively over Counsell/Dillon. Offensively...a bit better

 

LF-Push I assume Braun moves to right to take advantage of his arm, which pushes Hart to left. Hart's numbers last year were eerily similar to Soriano's, and Hart is younger and could easily improve. Soriano is...what he is. He hits for power. He steals bases. I'd like to claim victory for the Brewz but Soriano's contract would make me feel bad for those in Chicago, so I'll concede a push.

 

CF-Hall...by a mile. Hall is finally getting comfortable in center and as all Brewer fans know, when Hall is comfortable, he puts up team MVP numbers.

 

RF-Braun Put up an otherworldy number last year...in his rookie year. Even if he hits a soph slump and his OPS falls 100 points, he still outdoes the competition. Fukudome could be the second-coming of Godzilla and he still wouldn't get a push.

 

Bench...Brewz!

 

Pitching

Ben v. Big Z-Give me each of their best seasons and I think Ben gets the nod but I'll say push. I'm in a giving mood.

 

CV the Younger v. Hill-I know most want Yo here but I decided for comparison's sake to show that their career MLB numbers as starters are very similar. I would say this could be a push, though Carlos could outdo Rich with a full offseason of work knowing he will be strictly a starter. And that changeup makes people look more ridiculous than Hill's curve...so he has that going for him, which is nice.

 

Suppan v. Lilly-Lilly had a career year last year, which would push this matchup towards the Cubs. But if this is a postseason game, WITH THE BREWERS OFFENSE BEHIND HIM, you have to like Suppan. (note: I only say that because Perry doesn't account for defense, as stated earlier, when comparing pitchers)

 

Cappy v. Marquis-An All-Star last year... He went the way of Rick Ankiel last year. But I have to imagine he'll be better than Jason Marquis. Is there a pitcher worse than Marquis?

 

Bush v. the Dumpster-Two former closers, to varying degrees. One has always been picked for a breakout season, and has the peripherals to back the assumptions up. The other...well he has a lot of SV's....and BS's. I claim victory in the name of BUSH!

 

Oh yeah, and we also have a pitcher who pitched a perfect game at AAA last year...and a young phenom who led the minors in K's his previous year and was leading the minors when he was called up. A young PITCHER in every sense of the word who, to me, is just as valuable as Braun. El Chupacabra! The YO!!! He hits a HR for every he gives up! Umm...Advantage Wrigley North!

[Ennder]

I'm not sure Lilly would be the 3rd best pitcher on our staff if Sheets is healthy (Lilly had a career year last yaer with control and it is more than just moving leagues, lets see him repeat it). I don't think Zambrano would be the 2nd best if Sheets is healthy. I think Dempster would be the 7th or 8th best starter on our staff.

 

There is a lot of wiggle room in projections.

 

Tier 1

 

Sheets

Gallardo (might slip to tier 2)

 

Tier 2

 

Hill (might take that step to tier 1 if he can find another pitch)

Zambrano

 

Tier 3

 

Villanueva

Lilly

 

Tier 4

 

Marquis

Suppan

Bush

Capuano

Marshall

 

Scrubs

 

Vargas

Dempster

 

My real problem with most of these posts is they assume the Cubs work out and the Brewers don't. We magically assume Fukudome is as good as Hart, Soto busts into the league when most rookie C's stink, Pie matches Hall when he hasn't shown much in the majors, Hill improves, Zambrano stops his regression etc. It is just as likely that Weeks becomes a stud, Sheets is healthy, Gallardo is an ace, Capuano returns to his 4.00-4.30 ERA stats etc.

 

You can't just assume everything goes right for one team and not the other.

[And That]

You can't just assume everything goes right for one team and not the other.

I agree completely with you from a fan standpoint.

However, when building a team, you never look at the "what's the best that could happen???" scenario for any player. You assume at best average production from players, and usually less than that.

[Ennder]

You can't just assume everything goes right for one team and not the other.

I agree completely with you from a fan standpoint.

However, when building a team, you never look at the "what's the best that could happen???" scenario for any player. You assume at best average production from players, and usually less than that.

Oh I agree in theory. Just seems like a lot of these posts are making assumptions that the Cubs players will improve or be good instantly and then at the same time assume the Brewers players won't improve.

 

There is absolutely no reason to just assume that Fukudome is going to break into the league and be as good as Hart instantly or that Soto is going to be a huge upgrade over Kendall when most rookie C's (even highly touted ones) struggle to hold a starting job.

[baseballguy25]

You could say there is no reason to think Fukudome could put Hart type numbers or Soto should be better then Kendall. But then you can't say Sheets will be healthy or as good as Zambrano, which he hasn't been win/era wise in his career. Then there's also no reason to believe Weeks will be healthy or match DeRosa numbers for a fullseason because he hasn't yet. Or Villanueva will turn into a quality frontline starting pitcher after only starting 12 games in two years(and being just a average reliever). So you guys are being a little biased on a few of these things saying why should we believe the Cubs guys to do this, but think all these Brewers players are sure things. Especially when someone called Rich Hill "one pitch Rich" or whatever, even though he had a 3.92 era,183 strike outs in his first fullseason in the big leagues, so that one pitch must be pretty awesome. Or how about nobodys worst then Marquis(4.43 era as SP last year), well Capuano/Bush both were last year. Not to mention Marquis has put up simliar or better era's then those two guys over the last four years. Lilly might have had a career season, but his 04 season wasn't so bad either in the AL, pitching in the NL really helps him out.. He will drop off some but he is still most likely s going to be a sub 4.10 era pitcher next year.


As for Zambrano, say what you want about his possible decline, but he has the talent to go out and win the Cy Young next year. Zambrano(still only 26) has some of the best stuff in the NL, and honestly his career numbers do rank him with the best in the NL as well(3.41 career, 82-55). So to rank Sheets(3.83 career with a 73-74 record) or Gallardo(hasn't proved anything yet) ahead of him is very very very very biased. I'm not a Zambrano fan but the guy has stuff to be great, it all depends on if he can get his head on straight. The way he pitched late in the year and the postseason is a good sign he might settle down, but only time will tell.

[logan82]

I don't think everybody is assuming that everything is going to go right for the Cubs and bad for the Brewers. The thing is that the Cubs have veteran proven players covering more spots than the Brewers do. Outside of Soto, Fukedome, Pie and Wood, the Cubs don't have many question marks. Our whole bulpen is a question mark. They all have good 3 year stats, but most had a bad year last year. Our rotation could swing wildly either way depending on Villy and Sheets(I think Sheets has a healty year, Gallardo is almost a sure bet to be our best starter next year unless Sheets is healthy. Like Perry said, if everything goes right for both teams we are a tick ahead of the Cubs.

 

2 more things...

1)I think A-Ram will put up pretty similar numbers to Braun and the defense will really seperate them.

2)D. Lee may put up a slightly higher BA than Fielder, but I think they will be about equal in OBP.

[Gopher74]

I actually agree with alot of what Perry says, but I do the offenses will be much closer next season. Because you can't expect Lee to have his lowest HR/RBI total since 01 again, Ramirez to have his lowest HR total since 02 again, or Soriano to have the worst month of his career again(last April) these players are still in the prime of their careers. Plus Fukudome/Soto will also be nice upgrades for the Cubs line-up, ther Brewers still have a better line-up though. But I agree the Cubs should still be the favorite, they won it last year, and added to the roster, and as of right now the Brewers have close to the same team IMO. I don't mean to sound so much in favor of the Cubs, and honestly I hate the Cubs. But I do know they have a good team with alot of talented players, and some of you guys were thinking way to low of them and I was just point these things out. The Cubs closed the gap offensivly between the teams, will be alot better pitching/defensive wise, and still have a much better manager. Either team could win the division, but as of right now on paper, the favorites have to be the Cubs. Sorry

Hi I'm new to this board, but I just thought I would give my too cents. I'm not a Cubs fan or a Brewers fan, but I have seen both teams play alot last year.

 

Quite frankly, after reading that post, It's hard for me to believe you. Perhaps you've just bought a little too far into the Chicago spiel.

First of all I do live in Chicago and did get to see Rich Hill pitch alot last year, and some of you guys are really underrating him. Imo the guy is going to get better not, fall back to earth or any nonsense like that.

 

So us thinking that a guy who's got one pitch, and started out the year on fire only to come back to Earth, NOT having that type of year again is "nonsense"? Yea, you're not a Cubs fan.

If you watch him pitch last year it was obvious at times the pressure of big situations got to him, but should improve on that with experience. Hill will be the Cubs number two next year, I think he could have a era in the 3.50-3.60 range. I was listening to the Radio the other day and Steve Stone was talking about him and said that if he masters his breaking ball ever, the sky is the limit for him.

 

He was 27 years old going into last year. He's not a 21 year old. If the "pressure" is still getting to him, it's always going to. And I don't know what Steve Stone said, but if the guy can't get another pitch, he's only going to get so good with that big loopy curve ball and an average fastball..at beast. I'm not a fan of Hill.

 

 

I also believe it's unfair to rave about Villanueva, but say Sean Marshall will fall back to earth. Marshall was a pretty good prospect and is projected to be a 3-4 starter in the big leagues, and showed signs of that last season. Villanueva looked good in his 12 big league starts over the last two years, but I don't think he will be more then a middle of the rotation guy either.

 

At what time was Marshall ever suppose to be a good prospect?

And it's more than just a couple starts for Villy. He was very good in 06. If that's all we were going by, then fine. But he came out and was as good as any reliever the first half of last year, and was one of our team MVP's. Then he got a little fatigued since he wasn't used to getting up 4-5 times a week, even if he didn't come in every time. He got sent down, then came back up, in a race, with all that pressure that "got to" Hill, and had a 2.06 ERA. I'm sorry, but to compare him to Marshall is absolutely ridiculous to me.

I don't know what Villy's cieling is because he just keeps surprising people with his poise, control and that change, but he's a much better pitcher/prospect(though not technically a prospect) than Marshall.

I do think Gallardo is going to be a ace pitcher one day, but I think it's unfair to say he will be one this season at his age. I do think he will put up very good numbers though(simliar to Rich Hill), and be a quality number two.

Why? Why would it be unfair? He is what he is, and that's a freak. He came up last year and handled the pressure probably better than any other pitcher on our team, at one point running a scoreless inning streak in Sept to about 25, and every month his ERA was under 3.00.

June-2.79

July-2.67

August-7.55(The result of one bad start in Colorado, 11 ER 2+ IP or his ERA would have been under 3.00 this month as well)

Sept-1.36

 

Doesn't matter how old the guy is, his stuff is filthy, and he's incredibly poised, something you can't say about Hill, who, like you said, allowed the pressure to get to him.

 

---

The Cubs also having more SP depth then you guys think as well. Gallagher(36-15,2.75 era career minor league numbers) is every bit as good of a prospect as Parra,

 

This comment is absolutely ridiculous, and where I really stopped believing that you were a Cubs fan. First of all, Parra's the second rated prospect in a vastly superior system, whereas Gallagher is the 5th rated, in the Cubs inferior system. Second, he's a lefty. Third, his stuff is significantly better. If Parra didn't have injury concerns a few years ago, he'd be on Gallardo's level. His stuff very well may be better than Gallardo's. A lefty who can throw it in the mid 90's, with a plus change, and a plus curve, and very good control?

 

Gallagher's cieling is that of a number 3 while Parra's is that of an ace. To say he's as good of a prospect means you've been drinking a little too much of the Cubbie cool-aid, fan or not.

Zambrano vs Sheets- The edge has to go to Zambrano, with Sheets injury problems. I also think the 05/06 Zambrano will show up next year with the contract stuff out of the way, but thats just my opinion.

 

As has been pointed out, that's just a pure guess because nothing would suggest that. Zambrano's the prototypical, "I-got-my-contract-now-I'm-going-to-show-up-60-pounds-over-weight-and-get-hurt" type. We'll see, and I'll give you the edge here, but Sheets "injury concerns", have really just been a rare ear infection, a torn muscle in his back, and a torn tendon. NO arm, shoulder, elbow issues, and he's in a contract year. Smart money would be on Sheets, but again, you can have this one.

Hill vs Gallardo- I would have to say even right now, and even Bill James predicts simliar numbers from the two. Gallardo has more upside, but lets remember he's only 22 and it's his first fullseason.

 

Let's also remember that Hill's going to be 28, and doesn't really have much more "upside". I'd be shocked if Gallardo doesn't end up having a substantially better season.

 

Lilly vs Suppan- no question Lilly, even though I do expect his era to jump 20-25 points from last year. Lilly control improved last year because the hitters in the NL aren't as good and were swinging at more balls, I think the same thing will happen for the most part.

 

Well, I might as well not even reply since you said no question, but Lilly had a career year. Expect a "Bronson Arroyo" like return to Earth in his second year in the NL. If anything, this one's a push, especially after you try to say that Gallardo and Hill are even.

 

Final two spots

Marquis vs Bush/Capuano- Even, Marquis is just as questionable next season as either of those guys. So with the Cubs defense improved, and Brewers the same I think it's fair to say even.

Villanueva/Vargas vs Marshall/Dempster- I say even again, Villanueva is equal to Marshall in my eyes, and Dempster is equal to Vargas as a starter as well.

 

I'll say again, and respectfully, I think that's ridiculous. Villanueva is our 4th best pitcher, and maybe our 3rd best. How you can say he's equal to Marshall is beyond me, but anyway.

Cappy's a better pitcher than Marquis. His numbers will be close if we don't get the 3rd base situations figured out, but equal defense, and it's Cappy, despite a down year. Remember, Marquis had an ERA over 6.00 with a great defense the year before last.

 

Don't forget we've got Manny Parra as well, who is rated ahead of Marshall in just about every possible way(though since you think Gallagher is equal to Parra, I doubt you'll think so).

 

Our best rotation would be;

Sheets

Gallardo

Villanueva

Parra

Suppan

However, we'll likely go with Sheets/Gallardo/Suppan/Villy/Cappy if we don't move Cappy or get good value, then slide Parra in later.

 

So I think it's a little biased to say the Brewers young players will do so well, after one season of success or a half season of success, but the Cubs young players won't. The Cubs easily could debate DeRosa over Weeks and Ramirez over Braun as well.

 

 

Simply "being young", doesn't mean anything. We've got 18 year old's coming up. It is then fair to project they'll do as well as Marmol? No, you've got to consider the quality of the prospect as well.

 

 

Bottom line, you take the stance that every Cub player that had a career year(or close to it) last year will duplicate that year, and give every benefit of the doubt to the Cubs...and even cases that aren't that close(Parra vs Gallagher, Villanueva vs Marshall).

 

There is a reason that the Brewers starting pitching was ranked 3rd in a recent article on Fox sports(not the holy gospel, but still a reference). They've got a LOT more upside than the Cubs. The Cubs are at best going to be what they were last year, and at worst, you've going to have a 3 or 4 number 3 or 4's in your rotation.

 

 

I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I do think that you're very young on the young pitchers on each side.

But I do know they have a good team with alot of talented players, and some of you guys were thinking way to low of them and I was just point these things out. The Cubs closed the gap offensivly between the teams, will be alot better pitching/defensive wise, and still have a much better manager. Either team could win the division, but as of right now on paper, the favorites have to be the Cubs. Sorry

 

 

Don't aplogize. To be honest, I thought this was quite funny. It's clear you know very little about the Brewers young pitchers, so you opened up a link and looked at their stats. That's not going to help you form a real solid argument.

 

I do LOVE though how Derek Lee, a guy who's had ONE big year, Soriano and ARam are all going to break out and have these big years again, yet Cappy, who won 18 two years ago and was an AS last year is equal to Jason Marquis. I like how you even entertain the notion that Pie could be close to Bill Hall. The guy who hit 35 the year before.

 

And now with all of our players at 24 or 25 years old, the Cubs are magically going to close the gap offensively on us?

 

The Brewers have a lot more talent in the starting rotation, but more questions. We should have the superior starting pitching.

Both BP's have a lot of questions. The Cubs have Wood, and if they lose him, they don't look nearly as good. Same with us and Gange. We've got several guys with very, very good arms, but questions marks, they've got two very, very good pitchers(Marmol and Howry). This should be very close.

Offense-The Brewers clearly have the superior offense. I'll enjoy watching Theriot and Fontenot come back to earth this year after their run last season, but they're utility players at best. Soto will interesting.

 

The big edge for the Cubs in is defense, but if we move Braun out to the OF, our D looks worlds better.

 

 

Bottom line, we are a team that's considerably more talented. They're a team that's very well managed, and relies on about 4-5 players, and has experience.

 

Should be a fun season though.

[Gopher74]

As for Zambrano, say what you want about his possible decline, but he has the talent to go out and win the Cy Young next year. Zambrano(still only 26) has some of the best stuff in the NL, and honestly his career numbers do rank him with the best in the NL as well(3.41 career, 82-55). So to rank Sheets(3.83 career with a 73-74 record) or Gallardo(hasn't proved anything yet) ahead of him is very very very very biased. I'm not a Zambrano fan but the guy has stuff to be great, it all depends on if he can get his head on straight. The way he pitched late in the year and the postseason is a good sign he might settle down, but only time will tell.

Whenever I find myself arguing with someone who points to win loss records as a reason that one pitcher is better than another, I just have to tell myself it's not really worth it.

 

But hey, add another "very" in there, and then tell us how Gallagher is equal to Parra without "being biased".

[logan82]

The Cubs easily could debate DeRosa over Weeks and Ramirez over Braun as well..

 

I will agree with Ramirez over Braun if you factor in defense. I would even go so far as to say they are pretty much even before you factor in defense as I feel that Braun will regress a bit.

3 year splits. BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

Braun .324

.370

.634

1.004

Ramirez .301

.358

.559

.917

You lost me before that though. DeRosa better than Weeks? Now that's just silly.

3 year splits. BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

Derosa .288

.359

.438

.797

Weeks .250

.357

.411

.768

That's with Weeks playing nowhere near what most people think is his potential. One guy is 25 the other 33. Who do you think will improve?

[Ennder]

You could say there is no reason to think Fukudome could put Hart type numbers or Soto should be better then Kendall. But then you can't say Sheets will be healthy or as good as Zambrano, which he hasn't been win/era wise in his career. Then there's also no reason to believe Weeks will be healthy or match DeRosa numbers for a fullseason because he hasn't yet. Or Villanueva will turn into a quality starting pitcher after only starting 12 games in two years(and being just a average reliever). So you guys are being a little biased on a few of these things saying why should we believe the Cubs guys to do this, but think all these Brewers players are sure things

 

That is just it, nobody said those things. If people were making wild claims on both sides it wouldn't have bothered me. The Brewer fans assumed Sheets would get hurt, Weeks would get hurt, the bullpen would fail etc and the Cubs fans assumed that everything would go their way.

 

The way he pitched late in the year and the postseason is a good sign he might settle down, but only time will tell.

You mean 3.84 ERA in the 2nd half? You mean 4.63 BB/9 in 2nd half? You mean 6.89 K/9 in the second half?

 

Zambrano is regressing because of abuse, try to ignore it if you want but it is a reality. Gallardo is the best pitcher on either team, it is just a question of whether or not he reaches that potential this season, next season or in 2010.

 

 

I'll throw out ERA numbers from fantasy sources to be as unbiased as I can(combination of 4 projection sources).

 

Sheets - 3.80

Gallardo - 3.65

Villanueva - 4.16

Suppan - 4.55

Capuano - 4.37

Bush - 4.49

 

Zambrano - 3.74

Hill - 3.75

Lilly - 4.05

Marshall - 4.51

Marquis - 4.50

 

Those are some pretty even starting rotations if you ask me.

[Gopher74]

You mean 3.84 ERA in the 2nd half? You mean 4.63 BB/9 in 2nd half? You mean 6.89 K/9 in the second half?

 

Zambrano is regressing because of abuse, try to ignore it if you want but it is a reality. Gallardo is the best pitcher on either team, it is just a question of whether or not he reaches that potential this season, next season or in 2010.

 

 

I'll throw out ERA numbers from fantasy sources to be as unbiased as I can(combination of 4 projection sources).

 

Sheets - 3.80

Gallardo - 3.65

Villanueva - 4.16

Suppan - 4.55

Capuano - 4.37

Bush - 4.49

 

Zambrano - 3.74

Hill - 3.75

Lilly - 4.05

Marshall - 4.51

Marquis - 4.50

 

Those are some pretty even starting rotations if you ask me.

And that's without the potential that Manny Parra brings to the table. I could easily see him being a guy that we put into the rotation in late July, and gives us a huge boost like many of the playoff teams this year did. The Phils with Kendrick(though Parra's more talented IMO), or the Rox with the fireballer who's name escapes me at the moment.

 

[trwi7]

or the Rox with the fireballer who's name escapes me at the moment.

 

Ubaldo Jimenez.

[baseballguy25]

Gopher I can tell your a big homer, and I'm not gonna waste my time debating this stuff with you. Because obviously your really really overrating your team. I have no reason to defend the Cubs I'm just trying to give my honest opinion. I'm just gonna say a few things because honestly I can't debate this with someone like you who thinks everything will be great for the Brewers, but everything will be doom and gloom for the Cubs. Because honestly thats what your doing, and your being very biased. Remember the Cubs beat the Brewers last year, and even came back from being 8.5 games out(overcame a 22-31 start) thats not easy to do. They upgraded there roster this offseason, so even with Brewer fans being biased against the Cubs at worst things should be even right now. Very few expects are going to pick the Brewers rotation over the Cubs.

 

 

First of all Hill has more then one pitch he has a Very good Curve ball(Almost Barry Zito in his prime good), a decent fastball, and a breaking ball. The breaking ball pitch isn't always there for him yet, but when he has it going good it is a nice weapon for him. Like Steve Stone said the other day, if he could master that pitch(which he just added in the last year), the sky is the limit for Hill. Plus remember that fastball seems alot faster to hitters when that curve ball is going good. If Hill was so easy to hit with his one pitch hitters would have hit higher then 230s off him last year. But are you trying to tell me pitchers never improve after the age of 27? I'm sorry but thats just funny. Anyways what I was talking about being nervous is the experience factor, it doesn't matter how old you are. Do you think a career minor leaguer making his ML debut at age 31 is any less nervous then a 22 year old? Hill is still a young pitcher experience wise, and many times last year he was one pitch away from getting out of a jam and things blew up on him.

 

 

As for Marshall vs Villanueva - Marshall was never a high rated prospect but was always had a ceiling of quality 3-4 SP(from everything I ever heard). Honestly Villanueva was never a good prospect either, and has started 12 ML games(in two years), to say he's going to be better then a 3-4 starter at this point is crazy. What has he done to prove that but a handful of starts at the end of the season the last two years? Hitters adjust to pitchers, and more they see of Villanueva more they will adjust to him. As for Sheets vs Zambrano, Zambrano has much better career numbers, and much less health concerns, thats a no brainer pick right now. In all honestly Brewer fans talk Sheets up like he's Johan Santana and the guy has had only 1 very good season in his career. I think the numbers you showed comparing DeRosa/ Weeks should tell you why DeRosa should get the edge as of right now. Especially when Weeks has never played in more then 120 games a season. Sure Weeks as more upside, and should be better in the future, If your gonna go on upside Felix Pie should be better then Bill Hall in the future, Soto better then Kendall and so on.

 

 

As for Parra vs Gallagher, I honestly never heard Parra having ace potentail(I could be wrong though), I heard mostly 2-3 potential. Thats probably the range Gallagher is put in. As for the current Brewers/Cubs system I wouldn't be so sure to say the current system is much better then the Cubs. The Brewers lost alot of prospects to the majors, and the Cubs system improved alot over the last two years.

 

 

 

Well I think I'm gonna go visit some other sites for a while, but anyways good luck next year.

[logan82]

Logan I can tell your a big homer, and I'm not gonna waste my time debating this stuff with you. Because obviously your really really overrating your team.

Who am I overrating?

[baseballguy25]

Sorry Logan I meant Gopher I mixed your post up.

[logan82]

Sorry Logan I meant Gopher I mixed your post up.

Ok, I was just a little surprised since the only point of contention could have been Weeks and I doubt anybody would take DeRosa over Weeks even figuring in defense.

[baseballguy25]

Sheets - 3.80

Gallardo - 3.65

Villanueva - 4.16

Suppan - 4.55

Capuano - 4.37

Bush - 4.49

 

Zambrano - 3.74

Hill - 3.75

Lilly - 4.05

Marshall - 4.51

Marquis - 4.50

 

 

I could agree with those numbers on the Cubs part and Sheets/Gallardo/Villanueva. I just don't know how Bush, Capuano, and Suppan are going to improve that much with the Brewers defense just as bad. If they move Braun off third then, and maybe Hall out of CF. Then I can see some of those starters numbers improving, but if they keep it as is and add a guy like Luis Gonzalez to play LF the pitching is going to be as bad or worse next year. You also gotta factor in the Cubs big defensive upgrade, Pie/Fukudome are big upgrades over Jones, Floyd/Murton. Plus both of those guys got very strong arms, it's going to be hard to get a extra base on Soriano,Pie,Fukudome in the OF next year. Same goes with the catcher, they had two bad defensive catchers behind the plate most of last year in Barrett/Kendall. Soto is a huge upgrade defensivly and baserunners won't be able to run wild on the Cubs like they did last year. That should help the pitching staff out alot, especially guys like Marquis/Lilly.

 

 

You mean 3.84 ERA in the 2nd half? You mean 4.63 BB/9 in 2nd half? You mean 6.89 K/9 in the second half?

 

I was actually talking about his final 2 starts of the season and postseason actually. In Zambrano final three starts last year he went 19 IP, 1 ER, 18 SO and 5 BB. I disagree that Zambrano is regessing because of abuse. I think it's more of a mental thing for Zambrano, because his stuff is just as good. He gets himself way too hyped up and it causes him to have poor control at times, and he ends up hanging pitches. For example look at the big difference from his Home/Road splits over the last two years. That tells me he often gets way to hyped up in front of the home crowd. Plus Lets not forget Zambrano didn't have the pressure of being the guy until 2006, because he was always behind Wood/Prior before 06. Even Zambrano admitted he gets way too hyped up late in the season, and was trying to be more relaxed on the mound.(said he listens to melo music before the games now) From watching him pitch the final three starts of the season he seemed more relaxed on the mound. So I think Zambrano has a chance to rebound to the guy he was or better if he can keep himself undercontrol on the mound next year.

[baseballguy25]

Sorry Logan I meant Gopher I mixed your post up.

Ok, I was just a little surprised since the only point of contention could have been Weeks and I doubt anybody would take DeRosa over Weeks even iguring in defense.

 

Why though, compare DeRosa to Weeks the last two years? Especially when you factor in Weeks can't stay on the field and is bad defensivly. I know Weeks has a bunch of potential, but shouldn't the better player(as of now), get the edge until Weeks lives up to his potential?

 

 

Thats like the Pie/Hall stuff, would the Cubs trade Pie to get Hall? No. Would most ML teams rather have Felix Pie or Hall, I think most would pick Pie. But Hall is a proven big league player, and Pie isn't yet so the edge has to go to Hall. Yeah I know Weeks/DeRosa numbers alot closer then Pie/Hall but I'm just using that as a example.

[Gopher74]

Gopher I can tell your a big homer, and I'm not gonna waste my time debating this stuff with you. Because obviously your really really oPaverrating your team. I have no reason to defend the Cubs I'm just trying to give my honest opinion. I'm just gonna say a few things because honestly I can't debate this with someone like you who thinks everything will be great for the Brewers, but everything will be doom and gloom for the Cubs. Because honestly thats what your doing, and your being very biased.

That's ridiculous. The fact is, you're not well educated on the Brewers, and you're making some ridiculous statements. Suggesting that Gallagher is every bit the prospect that Parra is, despite the fact that no ranking sources have them even close? Please, you want to talk about biased?

 

And when did I say anything was going to be bad for the Cubs? I think you're just out of your element here, and you're throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.

Remember the Cubs beat the Brewers last year, and even came back from being 8.5 games out(overcame a 22-31 start) thats not easy to do. They upgraded there roster this offseason, so even with Brewer fans being biased against the Cubs at worst things should be even right now. Very few expects are going to pick the Brewers rotation over the Cubs.

 

And here's what I'm talking about. First of all, the Cubs have added ONE player. One player who's never played in the big leagues, and who's stats the last couple years in Japan look similar to Kaz Matsui's. Do I think he'll be a good player? Sure, but all this "upgrading" is exactly what I'm talking about. You tell me how great this guy is, a guy who, again, has never played in the big leagues, and compare him to Corey Hart, a guy, who by the way out produced Soriano last year. Then you tell me how the Brewers didn't upgrade? Please. I guess now we know who listens to the type of crap this writer writes. YOU!! We totally revamped our BP which was our biggest problem last year, and our young nucleus is a year older. I don't care what the Cubs did last year. Many of their players played over their heads.

And "very few experts", huh? Well, it's great that you can read minds, but I'll invite you right now to come back next year.

 

Again, the comments on Villanueva and Parra show a complete lack of knowledge, and would be best kept to yourself.

First of all Hill has more then one pitch he has a Very good Curve ball(Almost Barry Zito in his prime good), a decent fastball, and a breaking ball. The breaking ball pitch isn't always there for him yet, but when he has it going good it is a nice weapon for him.

 

Just stop. Stop right now. A breaking ball IS A CURVE BALL.

 

Honestly, and with that, I SHOULD just leave this argument, but I won't.

But are you trying to tell me pitchers never improve after the age of 27? I'm sorry but thats just funny. Anyways what I was talking about being nervous is the experience factor, it doesn't matter how old you are. Do you think a career minor leaguer making his ML debut at age 31 is any less nervous then a 22 year old? Hill is still a young pitcher experience wise, and many times last year he was one pitch away from getting out of a jam and things blew up on him.

 

 

This is almost as funny as your breaking ball comment. No, of course I'm not saying they don't improve, but I'm saying if at 28 a guy hasn't reached his ceiling, the chances are LESS likely that he's going to, and the learning curve for a 22 year old is MUCH steeper. I thought that was relatively simple, but I guess not.

 

As for Marshall vs Villanueva - Marshall was never a high rated prospect but was always had a ceiling of quality 3-4 SP(from everything I ever heard). Honestly Villanueva was never a good prospect either, and has started 12 ML games(in two years), to say he's going to be better then a 3-4 starter at this point is crazy. What has he done to prove that but a handful of starts at the end of the season the last two years? Hitters adjust to pitchers, and more they see of Villanueva more they will adjust to him.

Like I said, it's clear you just look at stats. What else has he done? He was up ALL YEAR last year. Exactly when are these hitters going to adjust to him? He was up the end of 06 and threw very well, then broke camp with the team last year. I know I said this already, so it'd be nice if you didn't make me repeat it, but since you're suggesting that he's only been up for a handful of games, I feel as though I must. He was one of the best Middle/Long men in the first half last year, and was once again an excellent starter for us down the stretch posting a 2.06 ERA. It's funny, if he was on the Cubs, he'd be a superstar, but because you'd never heard of him, it's "crazy" to say he'll be more than a 4". I guess I don't know what it is, if you're a homer, or just uneducated, but your posts are laughable.

As for Sheets vs Zambrano, Zambrano has much better career numbers, and much less health concerns, thats a no brainer pick right now. In all honestly Brewer fans talk Sheets up like he's Johan Santana and the guy has had only 1 very good season in his career

I never said one thing either way on these two, but you've got a funny definition of "much better". And Zambrano's been getting progressively worse the last several years. I think Cubs fans, and people around baseball have always agreed, a healthy Sheets is better than a healthy Zambrano, but that's not the case. Now I'm sure you'll be all up in arms over that, but that is the general opinion.

Your logic gets more convoluted with each argument.

I think the numbers you showed comparing DeRosa/ Weeks should tell you why DeRosa should get the edge as of right now. Especially when Weeks has never played in more then 120 games a season. Sure Weeks as more upside, and should be better in the future, If your gonna go on upside Felix Pie should be better then Bill Hall in the future, Soto better then Kendall and so on.

First of all, Weeks was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball and has had ONE injury, a wrist injury that he struggled with all of last year. His OBP was .422 the second half of last year, and he hit 11 HR's in the last 6 weeks or so.

But you then go from using the logic that if you take the younger player(Weeks 24) over the older player(DeRossa-33), then you should do that for Pie and Hall? Sorry to break it to you, but Pie's done FAR less than Weeks, and wasn't half the prospect that Weeks was, and Hall's done twice as much as DeRossa and is about 6 years younger. He led all MLB SS's in SLG, hitting 35 HR's last season(06), and Pie's done nothing in the big leagues. So, no, they're not close at all.

 

As for Parra vs Gallagher, I honestly never heard Parra having ace potentail(I could be wrong though), I heard mostly 2-3 potential. Thats probably the range Gallagher is put in. As for the current Brewers/Cubs system I wouldn't be so sure to say the current system is much better then the Cubs. The Brewers lost alot of prospects to the majors, and the Cubs system improved alot over the last two years.

 

You are and he does. He was rated ahead of Prince Fielder when they were both in the same league, but Parra had shoulder concerns, but he's come full circle and he's healthy once again, those with young pitchers, the concern's going to be there until he throws a couple injury free seasons.

 

And no, the Cubs are not as good as the Brewers farm system. I'm just using rankings, but the Brewers are still a top 5-9 whereas the Cubs are in the low teens. I don't know what they've done to get "so much better", but the Brewers, while bringing a lot of players up, still have a very strong farm system, it's just not very good on the top(AAA) with prospects who are near the majors, but they do have another wave of guys coming through.