Dayn Perry's Cubs vs. Brewers comparison

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Cubs have what it takes to fend off Brewers

 

It hard to compare these teams at this point with potential upgrades to left field for the Brewers and middle infield for the Cubs. Id also give Hart a advantage over Fukodome from my biased prospective.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, I'm not a fan of this Perry guy at all. Yet another crummy article comparing two teams about which he knows little. He's got the edge to us @ 3B, but when you factor in defense, Aramis is ahead of Braun (if he stays at 3B... another reason why doing this piece now was stupid). Soto is a total unknown, had a really high BABIP last year, and who knows if he can continue to hit at MLB.

 

I agree that Hart is ahead of Fukudome, and can only laugh at the LF comparison between Joe Dillon & Soriano. Just Joe Dillon. Cripes guy, do even the tiniest amount of homework. Perry wastes our time yet again.

 

SP he sez is a hugerz edge for da Cubz. The only part of this article he really got 'right', as a whole, is the defense segment, where - *gasp!* - he actually did some research! Crazy how he got that one right, no?

 

This article is one of the least insightful, most ignorantly compiled 'comparison' articles I've ever read. Fluff for fluff.

[Ennder]

These things always are going to come out iffy. there is no reason to think that Soto is going to be an upgrade over Kendall or that Fukudome is going to be as good as Hart after coming off of surgery and trying to adjust to a new league. Godzilla was a better hitter than Fukudome and his rookie season wasn't as good as Hart's year last year.

 

I'm also not convinced that Lilly is going to be able to reproduce his season last year, he has never shown control like that before and I'm guessing it is like Capuano's 2006. You also cannot seperate the teams pitching from the fielding. The reason the Cubs have a pitching advantage is because of their fielding, the Brewers peripherals as a team were better than the Cubs last yaer. This seems to be another we are going to assume everything works out for the Cubs type posts.

[derflotr]

It's NEVER bad to be underrated.

 

And Corey Hart = Fukudome? Insulting! Corey Hart's the best player on the team!

[theavrock]

It could be a worse article. He basically says that if our core improves and Sheets is healthy that we win the division. Still some of the comparisons are now where near close.

[sbrylski]

When you use ERA to judge pitchers and then have a seperate category for hitters, that's like counting defense 1.5 times.

 

Gagne is not a known quantity. However, Fukudome will be as good as 126 OPS+ Corey Hart, no doubt.

 

Count me very skeptical of Soto as well.

[Nearsighted Views]

The one thing this team has that can't be measured in a stupid comparison chart is that they're young and they've experienced a pennant race. I think that'll go miles this season.

 

And I'm glad to see Hart is getting the recognition he deserves.

[homer]

I remember the big Cubs thread last offseason when 99% of the people on this board laughed at Cub fans and the media for saying the Cubs had a shot. And guess what....the Cubs had a shot. Therefore, I will boldly predict that the Cubs will win the central going away. (cue reverse Cubs jinx)

[Ennder]

I took a lot of grief from Cubs fans last year for saying Zambrano would regress, Fielder would be almost as valuable as Lee and Braun could end up being as good as Aramis.

 

This year I'm sure I'll take it from saying Fukudome is not going to be the superstar they think he is and that the entire pitching staff of the Cubs will regress from last year. Pie is not going to be a star either, though I think Soto will be good. Not 100% sure he'll be good next year, rookie catchers are always hard to project.

[LS Brewer]

I disagree with the general sentiment. I thought that the article wasn't half bad. It was not terribly deep in its analysis but he made some decent points for a baseball fan not invested in the two teams. Gagne is an unknown quantity given his struggles at the end of last season and his use of Dillon as the Brewers' starting outfielder was due to the fact that that's where we stand right now. Perry did overlook the fact that Fukudome is also an unknown quantity. It is hard to automatically chalk him up as an equal to Corey Hart when he's yet to have a MLB at bat.

 

I always like articles like this because this is just the type of thing I do when I'm bored (i.e. position by position comparisons.)

[jjfanec]

I wish he would have broken down the pitchers side by side.

Zambrano vs Sheets

Lilly vs Gallardo

Hill vs Suppan

Marquis vs Villy

Dempster at least i heard that he would be their five or Marshall vs Bush/Cappy/Parra

 

I dont see that as a huge positive for the Cubs. Our back end is a lot better in my opinion. Their number 3 is better. I think Sheets is the wild card obviously.

 

As far as the bullpen is concerned

Gagne, Riske, Torres, Turnbow, Mota, Shouse

Wood, Marmol, Howry, Eyre, and I after that I just dont know enough about their guys but I am not overly impressed with anyone other than Marmol and maybe Howry.

If Gagne is a big question mark Wood is even bigger. If Dempster stays in the bullpen then it gets somewhat better.

 

He does a good job taking defense into consideration which is a big edge to the Cubs.

[strawbossisevil]

I don't think our rotation will be worse than the Cubs. Their #4 and #5 rotation spots are poor, and they don't have a great deal of depth. That said our rotation has a lot of question marks. If everything breaks our way, we could have the best rotation in baseball (aside from maybe the D-backs).

 

Let's see what we potentially have:

 

Sheets - When healthy, he is better than any of the Cubs pitchers. A healthy season would give us a huge plus at the top of the rotation. Potential: ERA in the low 3s, 15-20 wins.

Gallardo - Last year was his rookie season, and now the book is out on Yo. Will he continue his success or become the next Zach Duke? Potential: ERA in the mid 3s, 15+ wins.

Villenueva - Can he continue his sub 4 ERA as a SP? Its hard to know exactly what we have in him yet, hopefully he can continue his success at SP. Potential: ERA in the high 3s, 12-15 wins.

Parra - Can he stay healthy? What can this guy do? He has electric stuff, and if he didn't have the injury history would probably be acknowledged as challenging Yo as our top young pitcher. He definitely has top of the rotation potential, and if he comes in and realizes that potential, watch out. Potential: ERA in the mid to high 3s, 12-15 wins.

Suppan - What we saw last year, is probably what we can expect to get. Potential: ERA in the low to mid 4s, 10-12 wins.

Bush - Last year, many saw Bush as a guy who could take a step up, instead a high BABIP made his numbers less appetizing. That said, he still doesn't walk many, and gets a solid number of strikeouts. A reverting to a normal BABIP could bring this guy back to being a solid pitcher. Potential: ERA in low to mid 4s, 10-12 wins.

Capuano - many last offseason saw Capuano as our ace. The guy had ERAs of 3.99 and 4.03. While that was probably beyond what his true ability is, he isn't as bad as he was last season. Potential: ERA in low to mid 4s, 10-12 wins.

 

It's true, Sheets and Parra could get injured or Parra could disappoint. Gallardo could give his best impression of Zach Duke. Villenueva could fail to continue his solid SP numbers. Bush and Capuano could have a repeat of their bad luck in the BABIP department and have ERAs of 5 or higher. The good news though is we don't need to hit on all 7 in order to have a great rotation, if 4 of these players hit the "potential" listed above, we would be in great shape.

[trwi7]

My favorite part of the article.

 

 

Position Cubs Brewers Edge

 

Center field Felix Pie Bill Hall Brewers (barely)

 

Edit: Just read the rest of the article.

 

The Cubs ranked second in the NL in bullpen ERA last season, while the Brewers ranked ninth. That obvious advantage for the Cubs is even greater now that Francisco Cordero is in Cincinnati. Eric Gagne may wind up as an effective closer for the Brewers, but given his struggles in Boston last season he's something less than a known quantity going forward.

Kerry Wood figures to give them the dominating, shutdown closer they've lacked for so long.

Yeah no bias there. This guy is a tool.

[Gopher74]

How DARE you compare Yovani Gallardo to Zach Duke. That's blasphemy! LOL...just kidding. Seriously though, I don't think there's must concern about him being the next Zach Duke. Gallardo just has such a unique understanding of how to pitch for a 21 year old kid, and couple that with is awesome repertoire, and I think you've got the next great Brewers pitcher. Hopefully he can be great along with our last "great" Brewers pitcher.

 

That said, I can understand the hesitation for National Sports Writers to be apprehensive about our starting rotation since we've got so many question marks, but we've just got so much talent in there, that I can see us not only being the best in the division, but as Straw said, one of the best in the game.

 

Gallardo-I think he establishes himself as the ace of the future. The kid just doesn't panic, and reminds me of a young Greg Maddux in terms of poise on the mound. Take out that one hiccup in Colorado in which he gave up 11 earned in 2+ innings pitched, and I think he finishes 3rd in ROY voting. I see no reason why he can't be this seasons Fausto Carmona, posting an ERA in the low 3's and winning near 20 games.

 

Sheets-A contract year, and a chip on his shoulder equals great things IMO. I may be one of the last ones in thinking this, but I think that his injuries have been, for the most part, fluke injuries, and I hope that we can re-sign him. 4 years, 60 million after a great first half would be great, though not likely. Either way, with what he has to prove in a contract year, and no injury concerns regarding his elbow or shoulder, and you could see a 2004 Ben Sheets with that silly little thing call RUN SUPPORT!

 

Villy-Really a big X factor. This guy kinda came out of nowhere in 2006, and now he's done nothing but succeed as a starting pitcher in the big leagues. He was exceptional last year in both the pen and the starting rotation save for a couple week span in which he succumb to fatigue. ERA of 2.06 as a starter last year, and 3.63 as a starter in 06. Like Gallardo, just great poise.

 

Suppan-He's just a reliable vet, who's going to give you 200 innings, of league average ERA. Hopefully he can regain his second half 2006 form, but we don't "need" that.

 

Parra-Again, he's a big X-factor. Likely, or possibly a mid season callup, who could light a fire under this team. Cappy's going to be given the first shot, but if he's traded, be it during the season, or this off-season, Parra's the guy they're going to call on. If he can stay healthy, he should be very good. As someone else said, without injury concerns that SEEM to be past him, he'd challenge Gallardo for the best young arm in our system.

 

Bush-I was the biggest Bush fan last year(like a Middle Schooler that line still makes me chuckle), but he disappointed. Still, he's a guy who could very easily put it all together and break out for a huge year if he can just figure out that walks aren't ALWAYS the worst thing in the world. His peripherals look great, but IMO, if he could just work around a guy when he gets behind instead of trying to make that perfect pitch and having it end up in the seats, he'd be in much better shape.

 

Cappy-Obviously we all expect him to bounce back next year, my hope is that he stays with us and has a first half like he had in 06 in which he has 10 wins by the ASB, and we can spin him for a very good player. Maybe a DeJesus type to the Royals if they're a surprise team. Whatever, I think you get more value for him next year during the season than right now. And in the process he can help set us up for a Playoff Run.

 

 

Overall, I think that it's entirely reasonable to think this rotation is going to be much better than the Cubs. Hill, Lilly and Marshall all can expect huge drop's IMO from last year. Lilly especially. I see a Arroyo like fall from his 1st to 2nd year.

 

Mainly, I just can't wait to for that 1st pitch. Man...is it April yet?

[TooLiveBrew]

his use of Dillon as the Brewers' starting outfielder was due to the fact that that's where we stand right now.

 

But if you want to be accurate, you name the LF candidate who's in line for the greatest number of PAs, right? That'd be Gabe Gross. Imo his use of Dillon is another telling sign of someone doing entry-level research. You could just go to last year's team stats, game logs, or even the 2008 ZiPS for the Crew to see that Gross will have more ABs than Dillon next year.

[logan82]

You could just go to last year's team stats, game logs, or even the 2008 ZiPS for the Crew to see that Gross will have more ABs than Dillon next year.

You could look and see that Gross is left handed and see that he will get more at bats. Normally Perry has pretty good articles. He writes a lot for Baseball Prospectus or used to. I really have no problem with somebody saying that the Cubs will win the division again. It isn't like he is saying the Cubs are far and away the best team. For the most part what he says is accurate. Our starting rotation is full of question marks. My biggest hope was that they would shift Marmol to the closer. Then I would easily put the Brewers ahead. Really the teams were so close last year that you could boil the difference down to Cordero not closing out one game where A-Ram hit a walkoff HR.

[reillymcshane]

Definately some things to argue - Dillon as LF, Hart vs Fukudome, Hall barely better than Pie, etc. But he's saying - and don't disagree - the Crew have some questions. Kendall, Gagne - which version of these guys are we getting? Can Sheets stay healthy. But it's not like he said we're going to be in last place.

 

Perry is a Cardinals fan - and he's always been a big fan of the Brewers young players.

[TerraceReserved]

Normally Perry has pretty good articles. He writes a lot for Baseball Prospectus or used to.

His BP writings in the past I thought have been good, but recently when he's been doing analysis of the actual transactions and teams its been junk.

 

During the article he also failed to mention that the reason the Cubs pitchers appear better is becuase of the defense. He recognizes the superior D but doesn't even attribute it to the pitchers success.

[TheBrewer]

He broke down the lineups and positions which was great. But then maybe after he realized that the rest of everything went the Brewers way he decided to just put it into a few paragraphs. Wood has never closed games. Gagne has. Both are a wild card. Both I think will succede but no one knows for sure. IMO the Cubs rotation with Hill and Lilly over achieved last season, and I think they'll come down a little bit back to earth.. I really don't hear much love given to Hill so it makes me wonder if he can sustain what he did last year. And Lilly has always been a #3 type SP and pitched better than that last year, I expect him to come down a little also. Until Gallardo and Villanuanva are going an entire season in the rotation theirs really not a whole lot that you can base the Brewers SP on.. you can guess and make projections, but at this time next year we should be able to make little bolder predictions on the SP. And Sheets is a WC.. but at the same time Zambrano has gotten worse each year the past what 3-4 years?? BB have gone up, and his ERA has gone up each year.

[edod]

I like the part where Sheets is considered the wild card because of his "history" of health problems while Kerry Wood is going to provide the power shut down closer the cubs have needed for so long.

[SmartBall]

I don't mind Perry normally, he has some good stuff from time to time, and I really don't mind this article. He isn't striving for an ultra deep saber preview, he is just wetting the appetite for the regular season and I think he does a decent job. If somebody told me to handicap the NL central race in under a thousand words I can't say my response would be much different than his. I might mention the chances of pitcher regression or the Brewers desire to get better on D, but as a quick summary I really don't have that many complaints.

[ELCABALLO45]

look how worked up we all are getting over just THIS... Imagine in a little bit less then 4 months from now.......

[Fatter than Joey]

Generally speaking, I don't get too worked up with positional comparisons -- but they are fun to read and write. Perry wrote this article for FOX Sports and not BP, so I would expect a more glossy, hand wavy argument written article.

 

Perry gives the Brewers credit by implying that they are rising up. Given the fact that the Cubs won the division last year and have made improvements to their team, I think that it is reasonable to write the article from the perspective that the Cubs are above the Brewers, in the sense that they are defending their title.

 

The one criticism I would offer is that I don't think the Central will be a 2 team race.

[baseballguy25]

Hi I'm new to this board, but I just thought I would give my too cents. I'm not a Cubs fan or a Brewers fan, but I have seen both teams play alot last year.

 

 

First of all I do live in Chicago and did get to see Rich Hill pitch alot last year, and some of you guys are really underrating him. Imo the guy is going to get better not, fall back to earth or any nonsense like that. If you watch him pitch last year it was obvious at times the pressure of big situations got to him, but should improve on that with experience. Hill will be the Cubs number two next year, I think he could have a era in the 3.50-3.60 range. I was listening to the Radio the other day and Steve Stone was talking about him and said that if he masters his breaking ball ever, the sky is the limit for him. I also believe it's unfair to rave about Villanueva, but say Sean Marshall will fall back to earth. Marshall was a pretty good prospect and is projected to be a 3-4 starter in the big leagues, and showed signs of that last season. Villanueva looked good in his 12 big league starts over the last two years, but I don't think he will be more then a middle of the rotation guy either. I do think Gallardo is going to be a ace pitcher one day, but I think it's unfair to say he will be one this season at his age. I do think he will put up very good numbers though(simliar to Rich Hill), and be a quality number two. The Cubs also having more SP depth then you guys think as well. Gallagher(36-15,2.75 era career minor league numbers) is every bit as good of a prospect as Parra, and Kevin Hart was lights out in Double A/Triple A/ML after mastering his cutfast ball pitch. It will be interesting to see if Hart can pitch the way he was again. This is how I see the rotations

 

Zambrano vs Sheets- The edge has to go to Zambrano, with Sheets injury problems. I also think the 05/06 Zambrano will show up next year with the contract stuff out of the way, but thats just my opinion.

 

Hill vs Gallardo- I would have to say even right now, and even Bill James predicts simliar numbers from the two. Gallardo has more upside, but lets remember he's only 22 and it's his first fullseason.

 

Lilly vs Suppan- no question Lilly, even though I do expect his era to jump 20-25 points from last year. Lilly control improved last year because the hitters in the NL aren't as good and were swinging at more balls, I think the same thing will happen for the most part.

 

Final two spots

 

Marquis vs Bush/Capuano- Even, Marquis is just as questionable next season as either of those guys. So with the Cubs defense improved, and Brewers the same I think it's fair to say even.

 

Villanueva/Vargas vs Marshall/Dempster- I say even again, Villanueva is equal to Marshall in my eyes, and Dempster is equal to Vargas as a starter as well.

 

 

So I would have to agree with Perry about the Cubs rotation being better(because of the top three), but I agree alot of it has to do with the Brewers horrible defense. But thats still a problem, and it doesn't look like it will be corrected as of right now.

 

 

I can understand you guys being upset about Fukudome/Hart being a push, and you have a right to be. But I think Perry is just going on what most experts are projecting from Fukudome next season, and if thats the case it is a push. I don't think saying Hall barely wins over Pie is really uncalled for though. Lets remember Pie is a quality 5-tool prospect, and hit 362 in Triple A last year. Yeah he struggled in 170 Ab's in the big leagues(at age 22), but some would say he never really got a fair chance to play everyday. If Hall hits like he did in 07, I don't think it's unrealistic to say that Pie couldn't come close to hitting 254, 10-15 HR, 315 OBP,740 OPS next year. So I think it's a little biased to say the Brewers young players will do so well, after one season of success or a half season of success, but the Cubs young players won't. The Cubs easily could debate DeRosa over Weeks and Ramirez over Braun as well.

 

 

I actually agree with alot of what Perry says, but I do the offenses will be much closer next season. Because you can't expect Lee to have his lowest HR/RBI total since 01 again, Ramirez to have his lowest HR total since 02 again, or Soriano to have the worst month of his career again(last April) these players are still in the prime of their careers. Plus Fukudome/Soto will also be nice upgrades for the Cubs line-up, ther Brewers still have a better line-up though. But I agree the Cubs should still be the favorite, they won it last year, and added to the roster, and as of right now the Brewers have close to the same team IMO. I don't mean to sound so much in favor of the Cubs, and honestly I hate the Cubs. But I do know they have a good team with alot of talented players, and some of you guys were thinking way to low of them and I was just point these things out. The Cubs closed the gap offensivly between the teams, will be alot better pitching/defensive wise, and still have a much better manager. Either team could win the division, but as of right now on paper, the favorites have to be the Cubs. Sorry

[mrwisconsin]

Does anyone think that Ted Simmons as bench coach will make a difference?