Outside of the Box: Willy Aybar

[DrWood]

aybar got traded to the rays along with another guy, and the braves only got a 27 year old LH relief prospect in return.

[reillymcshane]

I don't know where you get that his prospect status has dulled.

 

Baseball American Prospect Ranking for Ian Stewart

 

2004: #57

2005: #4

2006: #16

2007: #46

 

John Sickels Ratings

 

2005: A

2006: A-

2007: B+

2008 (Just last week): B

 

His comment after this season was 'Has settled in as a solid prospect but not a spectacular one.'

 

So yes, I think his star has dulled just a bit - he's not the sure fire guy folks thought he was a couple of years ago. Power hasn't developed quite like people thought.

 

He's still a plus prospect - no question - but hasn't quite developed like people had predicted. Still pretty young, so you never know. I'd love to have the guy.

[SaintlySteven]

I don't know where you get that his prospect status has dulled.

 

Baseball American Prospect Ranking for Ian Stewart

 

2004: #57

2005: #4

2006: #16

2007: #46

 

John Sickels Ratings

 

2005: A

2006: A-

2007: B+

2008 (Just last week): B

 

His comment after this season was 'Has settled in as a solid prospect but not a spectacular one.'

 

So yes, I think his star has dulled just a bit - he's not the sure fire guy folks thought he was a couple of years ago. Power hasn't developed quite like people thought.

 

He's still a plus prospect - no question - but hasn't quite developed like people had predicted. Still pretty young, so you never know. I'd love to have the guy.

 

Yeah--I am sure they (Rox) still view him as quite valuable, and a piece of their puzzle going forward. That said- he hasn't been all that great the last couple of years in the mid-minors(and cup of coffee last year). Those rankings definitely back-up the fact that he probably isn't untouchable in trade talks, and wouldn't cost as much as some of the other posters in this thread think.

[SaintlySteven]

Maybe dulled was the wrong way to phrase it. After tearing up A ball three years ago, he has had a couple of years with fairly pedestrian numbers in hitter friendly environments (A ball again and AA last year). Also in a very brief appearance last year(MLB) he didn't do much (around .200 and poor plate discipline). I'm sure they still like him a whole lot(as do I ), but I bet we could get him for the right package of arms.

Doubtful. Unless that package were to include Gallardo/Parra or Villanueva+, I don't think we can get Ian Stewart.

 

He's still their second rated prospect behind Franklin Morales in one of the top 3 farm systems in all of baseball and likely a top 10-15 prospect in the game, ahead of where Ryan Braun was coming into last season. I don't think that he's any less of a prospect now then he has been. He's still a left handed Power hitting 3rd basemen who put up very good numbers in AAA.

 

 

I certainly don't think our package would have to include what you are saying here. Also he has not put up very good numbers in AAA.

[Gopher74]

SaintlySteven wrote:

 

 

I certainly don't think our package would have to include what you are saying here. Also he has not put up very good numbers in AAA.

How has he not put up good numbers in AAA?

In 112 games last year at 21/22 years of age.

 

.304 BA .379 OBP .478 SLG .857 OPS 15 HR's 65 RBI's and 49 BB's to 92 K's?

Those aren't good numbers? Those are very good numbers for a 22 year old 3rd basemen.

 

And I certainly do think that in order to get Stewart the Rockies are going to ask for one of our 3 good young pitchers, and then depending on which one they would get in this rhetorical scenario, they'd likely have to get something on top of that. If they got Gallardo, which again, would never happen, they would make that deal straight up, but for Villanueva, or even Parra, yea, I think they'd want more.

 

[danzig6767]

SaintlySteven wrote:

 

 

I certainly don't think our package would have to include what you are saying here. Also he has not put up very good numbers in AAA.

How has he not put up good numbers in AAA?

In 112 games last year at 21/22 years of age.

 

.304 BA .379 OBP .478 SLG .857 OPS 15 HR's 65 RBI's and 49 BB's to 92 K's?

Those aren't good numbers? Those are very good numbers for a 22 year old 3rd basemen.

 

He plays home games in Colorado. His splits last year

Road--.251BA/.325OBP/.377SLG/.701OPS

Home--.357BA/.431OBP/.580SLG/1.011OPS

 

They are great numbers in thin air, terrible in regular air

 

 

 

 

[Gopher74]

He plays home games in Colorado. His splits last yearRoad--.251BA/.325OBP/.377SLG/.701OPS

Home--.357BA/.431OBP/.580SLG/1.011OPS

 

They are great numbers in thin air, terrible in regular air

 

 

 

 

Well that's fine, and that's another argument/discussion, but you wouldn't say that Larry Walker didn't put up good numbers simply because he played in Colorado. You could argue that was the cause of his good numbers, but definitely not that he simply didn't put up good numbers.

 

Either way, the point remains, in order to get Ian Stwart, a very highly rated prospect, you're likely going to have to give up one of our good young arms. The Rockie's don't really have any motivation to move him.

 

I guess maybe Bush or Cappy if the Rox aren't happy with their rotation, but even then, you want a FB pitcher in Coors? Maybe if Bush had a 1.5 GB to FB ratio and his peripherals were the same.

 

[danzig6767]

He plays home games in Colorado. His splits last yearRoad--.251BA/.325OBP/.377SLG/.701OPS

Home--.357BA/.431OBP/.580SLG/1.011OPS

 

They are great numbers in thin air, terrible in regular air

 

 

 

 

Well that's fine, and that's another argument/discussion, but you wouldn't say that Larry Walker didn't put up good numbers simply because he played in Colorado. You could argue that was the cause of his good numbers, but definitely not that he simply didn't put up good numbers.

 

Either way, the point remains, in order to get Ian Stwart, a very highly rated prospect, you're likely going to have to give up one of our good young arms. The Rockie's don't really have any motivation to move him.

 

I guess maybe Bush or Cappy if the Rox aren't happy with their rotation, but even then, you want a FB pitcher in Coors? Maybe if Bush had a 1.5 GB to FB ratio and his peripherals were the same.

 

It's true Coors inflated the numbers for Walker, but there was no reason to question he was a very good hitter because his numbers outside of Coors were still good. Most years while with the Rockies Walker would be a 1.000+ OPS guy at Coors and a .900+ OPS guy on the road.

Stewart though raked in the thin air and sucked outside of it last year. The season prior in AA Stewart posted an .803 OPS which certainly isn't bad, but it was far from having any wow factor. I'm no scout, so maybe there is a legit reason to like him more that his nothing special numbers the last two years. I also know nothing about his defensive skills.Going strictly by the hitting numbers his last two years and nothing else, no way i'd give up Parra or Villanueva for Stewart.

 

Whether Brewers team scouts would feel differently than i do is obviously out of my ability to know.

 

[Gopher74]

It's true Coors inflated the numbers for Walker, but there was no reason to question he was a very good hitter because his numbers outside of Coors were still good. Most years while with the Rockies Walker would be a 1.000+ OPS guy at Coors and a .900+ OPS guy on the road.

Stewart though raked in the thin air and sucked outside of it last year. The season prior in AA Stewart posted an .803 OPS which certainly isn't bad, but it was far from having any wow factor. I'm no scout, so maybe there is a legit reason to like him more that his nothing special numbers the last two years. I also know nothing about his defensive skills.Going strictly by the hitting numbers his last two years and nothing else, no way i'd give up Parra or Villanueva for Stewart.

 

Whether Brewers team scouts would feel differently than i do is obviously out of my ability to know.

 

You're really arguing a couple different things than what I'm arguing. I'm simply saying that he did put up good numbers in AAA last year in response to SaintlyStephen saying he did not put up good numbers in AAA. Again, you can attribute it to the park factor, but the fact remains, his numbers were good.

 

And as to the matter of giving up Parra, Villanueva, or even Gallardo, no, of course you wouldn't do that, nor would I. My point was never that it'd be worth it to make that trade, simply that it would take someone like that in order to pry Stewart away. If you look at it from their perspective, they've got a very highly touted prospect, and when you look at Villanueva and Parra, you've got two very young pitchers who haven't really had much of a track record in the big leagues and weren't nearly as highly rated as Stewart. Now of course they've got scouts and they know how good Parra's stuff is and the success that Villanueva has had, but still, I think they'd require at least one of them in return for Stewart.

 

My points' really that his cost would be too high, and that I think he's still got a lot of value in the Rox eyes and they'd require a great deal in return for him. That's all. Not that they should, or the interpretation of his numbers.

[danzig6767]

Fair enough

 

One thing i would say though in possible defense of Stewart's terrible road numbers is i've read in the past that playing in the thin air of Colorado can mess up some hitters when they get on the road because curves and sliders don't move as much in the thin air, then they get on the road and the hitters have to adjust to pitches moving how they should. If i remember correctly, Cirillo said that was an issue for him that took time getting used to.

[hauser42]

Aybar might need to get out of jail before he starts thinking about playing baseball.

 

 

 

Aybar in Jail !