Donovan: Brewers have had second worst offseason

[TooLiveBrew]

Ennder, droppin' explosive knowledge bombs...

[jason21nl]

How can the fastest guy on the team not get to balls that Hall could get to?

 

He is the fastest guy with head down running in a straight line. That doesn't mean he is the fastest guy running at an angle, judging where the ball is going to land and trying to track the ball at the same time. Juan Pierre is fast but he still doesnt' have great range, the two don't always equal each other.

Hart is not only the fastest guy on the team, but he also has the most experience in the OF. To say that Hall could get to balls that Hart has no chance at isn't true, IMO. In fact, I think Hart ran down some balls that I don't think Hall would of had a shot at. I think the only reason Hall got any better was because he started catching the routine balls that normal CFers would catch. I don't know how many times he broke back on a ball that was hit shallow. Or how many times he got turned around on a ball.

 

Ennder, droppin' explosive knowledge bombs...

 

I'm normally not the guy who cares about 1 liners...but how does this even contribute to the discussion?

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Sorry, bored at work. Another one-liner...crap.

[Gopher74]

Melvin always said that you get more value in trading pitching during the season, and more value in trading position players in the offseason.

That's my point exactly. If we have to go into next season with Cappy and Bush still on the roster and throw Cappy into the starting rotation for the first 6 weeks, Bush into the pen, keep Parra in the minors, and then go with a 13 man rotation, I'm fine with that. I don't see any player who's going to be on the fringe as being someone you just can't keep off the 25 man. Rottino's likely the guy to go, and you can bring him back if you want when you make a move...assuming it's a 2 for 1.

 

But anyway, a team's going to get off to a hot start and then lose a starter, lose a starter in ST, whatever the case may be. It might be that Cappy just comes out of the gate on fire. Nothing would help more than that.

 

The bottom line, Cappy and Bush are just too good to just give away. Heck, I think Vargas is too valuable to just give away, but you may not have a choice there.

 

 

 

 

[Ennder]

I guess we'll just disagree, Hall almost made a play on a ball over his head towards the end of the season that I don't think Hart would have a chance at, in fact I don't think 90% of CF's would have had a good chance at it. He of course didn't quite make the play so it didn't do much good. Hall also showed a good ability to play shallow and catch the bloop singles but still be able to get back on the deep ball. I think he'll turn into a fine CF.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=mil

 

If you look there for some catches by Hall you'll see that he did show some strong range at times and made some pretty nice plays in the second half of the season. I agree he looked bad in the 1st half. (There are nice Hart catches in those archives too of course)

[DatHoser]

I'm psyched! The off-season is over! When is opening day?

 

Whaa?

 

Nuts.

 

With Melvin, the off-season is not over until the opening pitch, especially with extra back-of-the-rotation arms available and the propensity of pitchers to get injured during spring training. Vargas may not look good to Team A right now, but when faced with throwing out a Dessens type player at #4, that tune'll change.

 

We're all stir-crazy (at least those of us in northern climes) and just waiting for real baseball to start, so that's why analysis by a hack gets four pages and counting. Makes for some great debate, though. Plus, Ennder, thanks for the Gagne analysis on the top of page two - it really does set my mind more at ease regarding that signing. Zycho32, thanks for the new sig!

[Ennder]

Plus, Ennder, thanks for the Gagne analysis on the top of page two - it really does set my mind more at ease regarding that signing. Zycho32, thanks for the new sig

 

It would set my mind more at ease if we had a manager who I trusted to run a bullpen effectively http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[DatHoser]

So much for having my mind at ease - d'oh! Ya had to remind me.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Who knows, I did see a small blurb on one of the online sports sites that Yost was on the hot seat - maybe there'll be less "gut feeling" and more logic regarding the bullpen. That and I'll lose 25 pounds by spring! Both are possible, but not too likely.

[Gopher74]

I don't want to go and quote 8 different posts here, so I'll just sum it all up here.

 

First, in regards to Linebrink being equal to Riske, it's certainly possible as no other position is as difficult to predict year to year, but based on the last year and a half, I'd have a real hard time believing that. Linebrink appears to be on a downward decline while Riske had maybe his best season as a pro last year posting a ~1.50 ERA over the last 5+ months. His peripherals don't blow you away, but after so many years, who cares? He gets the job done, and he gets it done very well.

 

Second, as far as SP'ing being a problem, I guess I don't really see it either. I think with Gallardo and Villy alone, we're vastly improved from last year. Two pitchers who seem to be very efficient and get through more clean innings than most(that's just a observation, not stat based). I really think we're going to see some drastic improvement just from natural progression. Plus, I understand that Ben Sheets has been hurt now three years running, and I'm generally alone in this, but his elbow and shoulder is 100 pct healthy. I understand being apprehensive, but I don't think we go into the season assuming he's going to be hurt. I think he's got as lot to prove, and would if this weren't a contract year, but even more so with it being one. I expect great things out of Sheets, Gallardo, and Villy, and I think that Parra could be that guy that young teams have...the Carmona, Asdrubal Cabrera guy who comes up, or takes over a big role halfway through the season and gives the team a major boost(and I know that Carmona didn't come up mid-season, but his season was unexpected to some degree). Throw in Suppan who should be Mr Reliable again, and hopefully will improve a little bit from last year to the 4.35 range, and I really think we're set up to have a very strong rotation.

 

Hall vs Hart

I, like many on here feel as though Hall showed the second half of the season that he's more than capable of handling the job in CF. I still think that he goes back on some shallow balls a bit too often, before coming in, but that will improve with time. That said, I do not, and can't imagine how someone could say that he makes plays that Hart couldn't possibly make. Honestly, does anyone else remember the same Corey Hart in the OF that I do? He made some spectacular plays out there last season, plays going back on the ball, diving plays at the Warning Track, coming in on balls. Whatever, he seems to have great instincts out there, and when combined with exceptional speed, and his size, I just don't understand how the argument could be made that Hall makes plays he couldn't possibly make.

Actually, I think it comes down to placing a ridiculous amount of weight on flawed defensive metrics that, to be honest, I put almost zero weight in. They're just so unreliable, and to then try and take them to assign win shares, or runs given up by a particular player is taking a flawed concept just another step further IMO. Just going off of my own visual interpretation's of the two, Hart is the better defender out there, or was last year. Again, Hall's got a higher learning curve since it was essentially his first year out there, but you still can't dismiss Hart as a viable CF option IMO.

 

Bullpen

Again, I've already touched on this, but I think Torres is really going to be the big surprise. He's going to be able to fill so many roles. I think he's going to be very similar to what Villanueva was for us last year. He's accustomed to throwing 90+ innings, and doing it very effectively. I think he's the ideal guy to come in a close game in which our starter may have to leave in the 6th and take us to the 8th, or the 5th to the 7th. Either way, bridge the gap from SP'ing to the back end in a short start, he can be a late inning guy, and he can even close. I think he'll prove to be our most underrated pickup this off-season.

Gagne's in his second year back from injury, and looked very good last year in Texas. And he's playing for his last big contract. Another injury prone year, or another year in which he flames out, and he'll never get a long term deal...the 3-4 year deal he's looking for at 10+ million annually.

Riske's reliable, Mota's the last guy in the pen, so if he can be the 2006, we're in just ridiculously great shape, and if not, it's not going to kill us. He can be an X factor, but one that really can only help.

 

Kendall vs Estrada

This one's been discussed ad nauseam on her, but for good reason. A good catcher effects the rest of the team. Estrada infuriated me like no other player since I've been a Brewers fan. That bases loaded DP he hit into in Cincy in extra's was enough for me to eternally despise him. He's fat, he's lazy, he's selfish. He's a hacker. I remember in about 1996 or so when Chucky Carr was playing for the Brewers. It was a 2-0 pitch when Gardner gave him the red light. He swung and after the game, he said something like "Chucky don't take on 2-0, Chucky hacks on 2-0". Great guy to have on your team. Same thing with fat boy. The situation didn't matter, he was hacking at the first pitch, and usually rolling over one to 2nd base, which you knew he wouldn't beat out, or some lazy fly ball into RF. The pitchers didn't like him, he couldn't throw anyone out, and he was a black hole in our lineup.

I mean, for all the complaints about Inge, and Crede, think about having to deal with a .290 OBP in our lineup again this year? Kendall just needs a .340 or so OBP to look like Johnny Bench.

 

 

The Brewers made several BIG time lower risk/high reward type signings on guys who's value were all low. When they come back, Melvin's going to look brilliant. He signed players who all NEED to have big years, and with our own players ready to take it to the next level, I can't imagine not being confident in our chances in 2008.

[Ennder]

Perception is a tricky thing, i never thought Hall was a good SS. He never could turn the double play, made dubious choices as to what to do with the ball (go for the guy at 3rd instead of the guy at 1st etc). He didn't seem like an instinctive SS at all to me but he could make up for it some with great range and a good arm. Others thought he was a fantastic SS. The reason you look at statistics as well is because perception is as flawed as the stats are. Hart made some nice plays but I never felt he had great range out there, especially in CF and especially going straight back on balls.

 

Good post but just clarifying my opinion on Hart vs Hall. Hall made a couple plays where I said to myself no freakin way, I can't believe he got to that... I didn't see those from Hart but that could just be perception. The statistical side is too small a sample to rely on for more than saying they were both slightly below average last year.

[Gopher74]

Perception is a tricky thing, i never thought Hall was a good SS. He never could turn the double play, made dubious choices as to what to do with the ball (go for the guy at 3rd instead of the guy at 1st etc). He didn't seem like an instinctive SS at all to me but he could make up for it some with great range and a good arm. Others thought he was a fantastic SS. The reason you look at statistics as well is because perception is as flawed as the stats are. Hart made some nice plays but I never felt he had great range out there, especially in CF and especially going straight back on balls.

 

Good post but just clarifying my opinion on Hart vs Hall. Hall made a couple plays where I said to myself no freakin way, I can't believe he got to that... I didn't see those from Hart but that could just be perception. The statistical side is too small a sample to rely on for more than saying they were both slightly below average last year.

Yea, that's why judging defense is such an inaccurate science, but I don't think you can effectively use either method to argue definitively one way or the other.

 

And in all honesty, there are very few OF'ers who play balls hit directly over their heads very well. I think that is thee thing that made Edmunds a great defender. His ability to go straight back better than just about anyone else. I guess I'd just rather use stats as a jumping off point, but often times they can tell you something that you know to be very wrong.

 

Heck, why not use Gold Gloves....http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif So what if you end up with guys who DH for 145 games winning Gold Gloves!

[Baldkin]

I agree completely, Ennder, but I do have to defend Corey Hart. He probably made the best play of any OF I saw all year last year in Houston:

 

Hart's leaping catch

[Ennder]

Check out the Hall one on september 1st

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=mil

 

He was playing relatively shallow in CF and caught it at the wall in right center on a ball hit pretty hard.

[logan82]

Hart was the fastest over 60 yards. That doesn't mean he would be the quickest base to base. Acceleration vs. speed.

 

I never thought Hall was a good defneder at SS either. He has good range and a good arm, but sometimes he got to balls he shouldn't have and when he did he threw them away trying to get a guy out at 1B when he should have just held the ball.

 

I like Bush as a starter because outside of Sheets, Villy, and Gallardo I think he puts up the best chance to go more than 6 innings every time out.

[Oldcity]

Heck, I'm still wondering why Hardy, who won a team footrace in camp, can't steal bases at a decent percentage. I just find that puzzling.

Wasn't that Hart who won the footrace?

 

[Tbadder]

Speed is a funny thing to measure--it's so dependent on distance and angle. When I was in high school I was a 100/220 yard guy. Well, there were at least 10/12 guys in the state that could beat me every time in the 100, but none of them could touch me in the 220.

 

Indoor, with tighter turns, I struggled immensely and much slower guys could take me down, but get me outdoors with the one long turn I'd torch them. Not trying to brag, but it was so obvious I was built for one distance--nothing else would do.

 

P.S. Hall is way better than Hart in CF. Every time Corey goes to the wall he looks like he's ready to wet himself--positively shaky. Just my observational opine.

[jason21nl]

P.S. Hall is way better than Hart in CF. Every time Corey goes to the wall he looks like he's ready to wet himself--positively shaky. Just my observational opine.

 

I guess I would like to know everyones opinion on this. IMO I think It's crazy to say that Hall is way better in CF than Hart is

 

 

and P.S. Hart made more plays at the wall than Hall did. Either crashing into the wall to make a play, or robbing a HR

[Gopher74]

P.S. Hall is way better than Hart in CF. Every time Corey goes to the wall he looks like he's ready to wet himself--positively shaky. Just my observational opine.

 

I guess I would like to know everyones opinion on this. IMO I think It's crazy to say that Hall is way better in CF than Hart is

 

 

and P.S. Hart made more plays at the wall than Hall did. Either crashing into the wall to make a play, or robbing a HR

I would agree with that. I mean, just based on how many great plays Hart made at the wall last year, I don't know how you can possibly try and argue that he wasn't effective back against the wall.

 

I wouldn't make a definitive statement one way or the other, but I really don't get how people can say Hart looked so shaky out there. I just think he looks awkward all the time. I mean, he looks "awkward" a little but at the plate to me, but he gets the job done.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's really prudent to bear in mind that Corey has had a lot more experience out in the OF. They looked about equal last year, Hall's first ever in the OF. I think it's only reasonable to presume that Hall will end up being more effective there.

[Gopher74]

It's really prudent to bear in mind that Corey has had a lot more experience out in the OF. They looked about equal last year, Hall's first ever in the OF. I think it's only reasonable to presume that Hall will end up being more effective there.

Oh, absolutely. I want to make it clear that I'm not trying to in any way argue that Bill Hall isn't going to be good out there. I really think that he'll end up being a fantastic CF'er. I think it was Davey Nelson who said he was the best "off his feet player", he's ever been around, which is to say that he's the best player at laying out making diving plays. I can really envision him becoming a player who can make those highlight reel type catches in CF, and we've seen a glimpse of that. The type that can take away doubles and triples.

 

In fact, I think once he settles in, which hopefully he will this year, I think he'll be one of the leagues top all around CF'ers.

 

I was more just defending Corey Hart, as I think he did and is capable of doing a very good job out in CF.

[flosses like fossas]

one thing that seems to be largely overlooked by a lot of threads of this type is that for the brewers to have made more drastic changes this offseason, melvin would have had to move some significant piece or pieces of the future. the names most frequently mentioned at this point remain hall, vargas and sheets - significant names - are not the kind of guys that create a real unrest about the possibility of their being traded away. the point definitely has been raised on this board that the trade and free agent ideas are too often brewer-friendly. i would agree with that. however, i do not think that the brewers have failed to accomplish things this offseason. the numbers don't lie that letting cordero and linebrink walk for those kinds of dollars+years was the right move, swapping salaries for an unwanted estrada and getting potential (regardless how debatable) in mota could pan out, and riske and torres would appear to be deals at this point, gagne remains the wild card. all that said, i would support a move that might involve moving a bit of youth should it bring a hefty return. all in all, though, judging by what other teams have or haven't done this offseason i would be hard pressed to put the brewers near the bottom of a list of successful off-seasons.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oh, absolutely. I want to make it clear that I'm not trying to in any way argue that Bill Hall isn't going to be good out there. I really think that he'll end up being a fantastic CF'er.

 

Yea - I wasn't meaning to single you out. You've been very transparently fair in any CF Hall/Hart discussions from what I recall. As mentioned, in both cases (Hart/Hall), neither guy really has enough of a MLB sample to make a definitive judgment yet.

[Ayt]

Bullpen

Again, I've already touched on this, but I think Torres is really going to be the big surprise. He's going to be able to fill so many roles. I think he's going to be very similar to what Villanueva was for us last year. He's accustomed to throwing 90+ innings, and doing it very effectively

I agree with you completely. I've touted Torres on another board moreso than this one. The amount of innings he ate up in Pittsburg combined with his overall effectiveness should end up being a huge addition. One down year when he had injury issues and some off the field things bothering him with the organization doesn't change how valuable he was the three years prior. He was a major steal and a huge addition.

[Gopher74]

I agree with you completely. I've touted Torres on another board moreso than this one. The amount of innings he ate up in Pittsburg combined with his overall effectiveness should end up being a huge addition. One down year when he had injury issues and some off the field things bothering him with the organization doesn't change how valuable he was the three years prior. He was a major steal and a huge addition.

Yea, I don't understand why we're not more excited about this addition. One bad year because of an injury issue, and people are acting as if he's this huge question mark. I don't know, I don't see it. I've been touting him just as much to everyone I talk to about the Brewers. I think he'll end up being our best addition to be honest with you. Riske will be very good IMO, but he's a SU man. 8th inning most likely. Gange could be huge, but again, he's our closer. I think Torres is the guy that we use like the Cubs used Marmol last year, or we used Villanueva last year. Whenever we get into trouble, he's the guy we go to, if a starter can't go 6 or 7, he's the guy who bridges the gap. It's funny, you take your best reliever, and use him in what is rarely your biggest, or toughest spot. That leaves, IMO, the most important reliever as the one who you bring in for any situation. That's what Torres will be.

 

My prediction for Torres. 80 Games 95 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.20 Whip 65 K's 30 BB's

Just imagine how huge that'll be from the 4th guy out of our pen(Gange, Riske, Turnbow).

 

I guess that's why when I see people talk about us having the 2nd worst off-season, it's just utterly laughable to me. I understand not counting on Gange to bounce back, but there's no reason to think that Torres won't, and that Riske won't be very good again, and if that's the case, Gange isn't a total game breaker.

[danzig6767]

Bullpen

Again, I've already touched on this, but I think Torres is really going to be the big surprise. He's going to be able to fill so many roles. I think he's going to be very similar to what Villanueva was for us last year. He's accustomed to throwing 90+ innings, and doing it very effectively

I agree with you completely. I've touted Torres on another board moreso than this one. The amount of innings he ate up in Pittsburg combined with his overall effectiveness should end up being a huge addition.

The fear is all those innings he ate up along with his age could have caught up with Torres and limit future effectiveness. The cost in acquiring him wasn't high to me though so it was very worth any risk that happens.