The Outfield Logjam.

[DrWood]

The lower minors seem to have too many outfielders to go around, and the guys at AAA seem (to me) like they will be retreads (gwynn, nix, anderson) or will be rushed a level (Katin, LaPorta, Brantley).

There are 4 full-season teams A: West Virginia, A+: Brevard County, AA: Huntsville, AAA: Nashville,

with these guys being notable prospects at getting a starting OF gig, with age and highest minor league played last season after their name (I may have made an error here or there):

L. Nix (AAA, 28)

T. Gwynn (AAA, 25)

D. Anderson (AAA, 26)

Brad Nelson (AAA, 24, but played mostly 1b)

B. Katin (AA, 24)

M. Brantley (AA, 20)

S. Moss (AA, 23)

M. Stocker (AA, 27)

L. Cain (A+, 21)

C. Gillespie (A+, 23)

C. Errecart (A+, but played mostly 1b, 22)

D. Ford (A+, 22)

C. Fermaint (A+, 22)

M. LaPorta (A, 22)

C. Caufield (A, 24)

S. Chapman (A, 22)

C. Gindl (R, 19)

K. Crowell (R, 23)

L. Haydel (R, 20)

 

19 players for 12 full-time OF slots (there are several others in the system that seem destined for part-time roles)

[And That]

Nelson is more of a 1B/3B, Brantley plays some 1B, Errecart is hurt, and Haydel might not break camp with a full-season team. Not to mention, there's DH spots at all levels.

 

I have the OFers lined up this way at the moment:

 

Nashville - Anderson, Nix, Katin, Moss

Huntsville - LaPorta, Cain, Gillespie, Stocker

Brevard - Chapman, Ford, Fermaint, Caufield, Parejo

West Virginia - Crowell, Haydel, Gindl, Goetz

[DrWood]

Nelson is more of a 1B/3B, Brantley plays some 1B, Errecart is hurt, and Haydel might not break camp with a full-season team. Not to mention, there's DH spots at all levels.

 

I have the OFers lined up this way at the moment:

 

Nashville - Anderson, Nix, Katin, Moss

Huntsville - LaPorta, Cain, Gillespie, Stocker

Brevard - Chapman, Ford, Fermaint, Caufield, Parejo

West Virginia - Crowell, Haydel, Gindl, Goetz

I think you need Brantley in there somewhere. He's not going to be a ML 1b, and as a 20 year old in AA, he's clearly a prospect you want to play most days. to me, it seems like you are rushing katin, moss, and maybe chapman..

 

[DrWood]

I forgot about caufield...it was lefave that was traded, I mistakenly removed both of them I'll edit my OP.

[And That]

The best way to get Brantley on the field every day in AA on the same team as LaPorta and Gillespie is to play him a lot at first base and DH, however he'll see time in the OF as well. Katin, Moss and Chapman have all spent more than a full season at their respective levels - I don't think they are being rushed. You could make a case to keep Moss in AA yet again, but like Gwynn, his value lies in his glove and he's not going to get any better in AA with that. Caufield hasn't been traded.

[DrWood]

I guess brantley could play at 1b until errecart is ready to come back, but that should probably be the role of organizational soldier steve sollman. I just hate to use him anywhere but the OF which is where I think he could have a nice career. They should be seeing if he can play CF, if anything, because his bat plays great there.

[JJHardy7]

Not to be too picky, but...

 

1. Nix doesn't turn 28 until after the 2008 season.

 

2. Nelson has logged more time in the OF (in terms of games) than any other position. He has also only played 3B in 17 games (all of which were in 2007). I guess I do see Nelson as more of a 1B/DH role, but to get to the bigs with the Brewers he'll have to get their via OF and at this time be the 3rd 3B. He's not horrible in the OF, but it will be interesting to see what shape he comes into camp in.

[twobrewers]

But Nashville is filled with players who aren't really "prospects" anymore. (Gwynn might still be a prospect, but he also might stick with the Brewers)

 

In other words, I highly doubt the Brewers are going to block any of their prospects with organizational soldiers.

[DrWood]

But Nashville is filled with players who aren't really "prospects" anymore. (Gwynn might still be a prospect, but he also might stick with the Brewers)

 

In other words, I highly doubt the Brewers are going to block any of their prospects with organizational soldiers.

problem is, the prospects aren't ready for AAA, imo.

 

[twobrewers]

Yes, but Katin, Moss and Stocker aren't really prospects anymore either.

 

Anyone of them could be bumped to AAA to see if they can handle it to make room at the AA level.

[dadofandrew]

It's pretty tough to consider Nelson a 3B at all as of yet. Brantley will play plenty of OF, in '08 & the future.

[himeji jo]

What are folks' realistic expectations for Brantley in terms of developing his game? Is he likely limited to LF and 1B or is he just not as good, defensively, as teammates at CF and RF? Do those doubles project to homers with strengthening and experience or is he at his slugging max?

 

I understand with his age he's difficult to label completely. But the apparent defensive limitations have me tempering my excitement about him.

[homer]

My guess is that his ceiling is David DeJesus offensively.

[colbyjack]

Not to completely steer this discussion in a different direction, but the idea of a logjam is exciting since it's a sign of a well-stocked system, and it's getting to the point that you could do this type of exercise for almost every position in the Brewers organization.

 

1B: Nelson, Errecart, Alonso, Rindal

2B: Iribarren, Bell, Holmberg, Farris

3B: Heether, Gamel, Green, Wheeler

SS: Escobar, Perez, Brewer, Fonseca

 

Sure, there are plenty of guys mentioned on this quick list and the OF list above that aren't truly prospects, but just to be mentioned shows that there is at least someone in place which lessens the need for the organization to go out and find needs from the minor league free agent scrap heap (or the indy leagues, as they've done more and more in recent years).

 

Catcher of course doesn't seem as rosy, but from AAA through A you should have Palmisano, Salome, Bouchie and Lucroy with Zarraga as an unknown at the rookie level, which could include Mat Gamel depending on where you think he'll end up down the road.

 

Back to the outfielders, I would feel more comfortable if the system had that one, semi-can't miss guy in CF. We seem to have plenty of candidates for the OF corners.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm hoping Brantley starts in CF at AA, with Laporta and Gillespie at the corners. I'd have no problem with Cain repeating high A. A below 700 OPS should not get you a promotion.

[ILuvDaBush]

Has there been any talk of moving Mat Gamel behind the plate from 3B, like the Dodgy Fellows did with Russell Martin? It had occurred to me but I didn't know if such an idea had any legs.

[pogokat]

i think patrick meant to say gamel would e in the outfield mix, not catcher mix...

 

brantley is not a cf...he doesn't run as well as any of the other cf options, and chapman, ford, cain, moss, and probably gillespie are all easily ahead of him as centerfielders...he could probably play there, but he would be no better than brady clark...which is to say that he might play some cf in the majors (like corey hart) but he should be behind one of thoseother guys until then

[DrWood]

brantley sure steals a lot of bases for someone that doesn't run too well. you sure he doesn't move better than chapman and moss, at least? And hart is more than fast enough to play CF. considering he's the fastest guy on the brewers, I'd guess he's fast enough to play anywhere.

 

It's certainly in brantley's best interest to move to CF. As a corner OF, he projects as a backup. As a CF, he projects very well indeed.

 

oh, and twobrewers--katin isn't a prospect anymore? he strikes out way too much, but you'd think a 24 year old guy that leads his league in HR and RBI might be a little bit of a prospect. I don't know that the organization has given up on moss, either.

[And That]

If the Brewers thought Brantley could play CF regularly in the majors some day, he'd be playing there in the minors. Since he hasn't been playing CF in the minors, it would lead me to believe the Brewers feel he's better suited for a corner OF spot, namely left field. My guess is that he breaks into the bigs some day as a backup LF/1B.

[twobrewers]

oh, and twobrewers--katin isn't a prospect anymore? he strikes out way too much, but you'd think a 24 year old guy that leads his league in HR and RBI might be a little bit of a prospect. I don't know that the organization has given up on moss, either.

Do you know of any ranking that has him in the top 10 for Brewers prospects?

 

Any that even have him in the top 20?

Sickle doesn't have him in the top 20. BA doesn't have him in the top 10. He sits at #24 on the Power 50.

 

A 24 year old leading AA in HR and RBI is not that impressive when you consider his huge K totals. Can you imagine how many K's he would have against MLB pitching?

 

Katin = Organizational Soldier

[And That]

I wouldn't slap the dreaded "organizational soldier" tag on Katin quite yet. He's a prospect, albeit a fringey one. His only above average tool is power, but he does have a good bit of that - 24 home runs in the Southern League as a 24 year old is nothing to scoff at. While he strikes out a ton, his walk rate actually picked up a bit from '06-'07. If he continues to hit the ball out of the park once he reaches AAA (and in the PCL he shouldn't have a tough time doing that) as well as keep some semblance of a decent batting average, he'll be considered for big league rosters for a number of years to come.

 

Could also be he flames out next year - who knows? Organizational solider? Not quite yet.

[1e Corbeau]

BA named Katin as either most athletic or second most in their best tools assessment of the Brewers system in 2005, I believe. Hopefully, he has the instincts and head to translate that into above average corner OF range and good base-running.

 

I think he's more likely to have a short major league career as a backup (not Barnwell short), rather than be a organizational soldier.

[pogokat]

Saying brantley is slow is based on my having seen him play about 15 times over the last two seasons...he doesn't run very well

 

and this is not a knock on him, but he's got nothing defensively on those other guys...chapman, cain, and ford are all excellent fielders...ford and cain's presence have kept brantley out of cf so far..i suspect they will continue to...

 

i like michael...he's a unique prospect...but he's not a real centerfielder (though i hope he learns to play it at some point) he'll never be on the same level as those other guys...but they are all plus defenders

[colbyjack]

brantley sure steals a lot of bases for someone that doesn't run too well.

 

Stealing bases and outfield range often can be two completely different things.

 

Pogo has brought up Brantley's difficulties in CF before, and Toby makes a good point as well about how Brantley would be playing CF more if the team felt that was his future position. I realize the overall OF depth has made that somewhat difficult, but again, if they liked him enough (again, as a CF) they would have moved someone else to make it happen.

 

As for Gamel, yes, I meant that Gamel seems to be a likely candidate to end up at an OF corner at some point during his career. If the team wanted to move him to behind the plate, that is something they should have thought about when they drafted him, not as he moves up to the AA level.

 

I too remember Katin getting high marks for his overall athleticism, being the second rated athlete in BA's draft report cards, second to fellow Hurricane alum Ryan Braun, after the 2005 draft. I think his upside is Kevin Mench-esque, but there's nothing wrong with that.

[DrWood]

I wouldn't slap the dreaded "organizational soldier" tag on Katin quite yet. He's a prospect, albeit a fringey one. His only above average tool is power,

 

he's supposed to have the best OF arm in the system, so I guess that would be above average, too. It's odd I'm trying to defend him, because he's not exactly my kind of player, but to say he's not a prospect seems fatuous.