Thoughts on Jeremy Jeffress?

[AJ Love]

What are your thoughts on Jeffress? I was thrilled that the Brewers drafted him, but am a little disappointed that he had a 5.96 ERA in Rookie Ball... Should I not be overly concerned about that? I see he averaged about a Strikeout per inning

 

Where will he likely pitch in '07?

[pogokat]

he didnt pitch many innings last year and he has a cannon for an arm...he's got a lot in common with mark rogers, and i'm sure the brewers arent expecting him to click right away..

 

toby predicts him to stay in rookie ball for another year, which is likely, but he has an outside shot of starting in WV...

 

he's got huge upside, but its gonna be many years before we see it in milwaukee...

[RyDogg66]

Pencil him into the Bullpen in 2011. He'll be a great set up man.

[AJ Love]

I remember when he was drafted, he said he planned to be in Milwaukee within a few years, and I figured that was just the confident boasting of a young man, but I do (did) like that he believes in himself...

[deeswan]

Frankly, who cares, since he'll probably need rotator cuff surgery within the next couple of years. Sorry, I'm pretty pessimistic about pitching in the Brewer system these days.

[foamboy1]

Frankly, who cares, since he'll probably need rotator cuff surgery within the next couple of years. Sorry, I'm pretty pessimistic about pitching in the Brewer system these days.

 

Hahaha...I was going to post a similar message. Yo Gallardo is probably afraid to come to camp soon.

[deeswan]

Really, it's almost to the point that, when a pitcher is drafted by the Brewers, I feel I should simultaneously send sympathy and a "get well soon" cards.

[thumperden]

I'm just wondering aloud if the Brewers have a "Higuera Hex" on them or something. You can go further back than that for arm woes, but that's the best example I can find that the Brewers have been jinxed somehow. How about the "Sorensen Snakebite", or the "Vuckovich Voodoo", or the "Fingers reFLUX"? Any other names out there we can use?

 

Oh yeah, the "Neugebauer Neugie" or the "Gold Fool's Gold", or the "Peterson Perplex", or the "Hill Hangover". And on and on and on...

 

Seriously, this is just like a bad Hee Haw song. "If it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all. Whoa-ho-ho! Gloom, despair, and agony on me."

[colbyjack]

While we have heard about how the ball explodes out of Mark Rogers' hand, how Mike Jones' delivery is flawless, how good JM Gold's curveball was, etc., Jeffress is a very good, athletic prospect whose delivery is about as smooth as they come. He played basketball in high school as well, and was his team's leading scorer as a point guard. Throwing 101 without breaking a sweat is pretty impressive as well.

 

He's not a pitcher though at this point in time, which always concerns me, and while his slider projects as a plus-pitch, it's not very consistent, and there isn't much of a changeup right now. These are things that can develop, as Gallardo didn't have much of a changeup when the Brewers drafted him either, but I do wish the Brewers placed more emphasis on one's ability to pitch rather than just gaudy radar readings.

 

That said, I do think Jeffress was a solid pick where the Brewers took him. I heard about mid-spring that the Brewers were ready to jump on Jeffress if he fell to them, and having that kind of arm fall to the 16th spot is a pretty good pick for value.

 

With the 7th overall pick next year, Jeffress is the type of pitcher I personally would avoid, just like I would have avoided Mark Rogers with the 5th pick in 2004. I think there's a good chance Jeffress is pushed up to West Virginia to open '07, as Rogers was pushed a few short years ago. Reportedly Jeffress' mechanics don't need the kind of overhaul that Rogers' did, so hopefully that is a good thing moving forward, as he can focus on throwing strikes with what already works for him.

[splitterpfj]

How about the Nieves Negateus, the Correa Nowayea or the Hill Hiatus.

[deeswan]

How about the Nieves Negateus, the Correa Nowayea or the Hill Hiatus.

 

Is this a Harry Potter book?

[thumperden]

Thanks splitter. I knew there were more than what I could think of. I really was saddened about Nieves' arm woes especially.

[dixieflatline]

Great post by colby as always. I just want to reiterate that unlike Rogers, Jeffress's delivery won't need to be completely reworked. IMO this is a huge plus and reduces he chance of injury. That doesn't mean he won't get injured at some point but it is a positive.

[Tisko]

What I havent seen mentioned in this thread though is his age. This was his first year of baseball outside of high school. I wouldnt worry about that 5+ ERA too much this year. I am just looking for his numbers to improve in the next few years. Or at least I hope.

 

p.s. I am right about him being drafted out of high school right? I am doubting my memory now.

[pogokat]

yeah, a high schooler...pay no attention to statistics in rookie ball...

 

he has more potential than anyone else on the farm...

[And That]

he has more potential than anyone else on the farm...

 

And yet Yovanni Gallardo is going to have so much more success.

 

The Brewers' insistence on drafting HS RHPs in the first round recently has boggled me. What has it gained them? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The only thing that J.M. Gold, Mike Jones and Mark Rogers have done for the Brewers is get their surgeons well-trained in shoulder surgery.

 

Honest to God, I'm not holding out any hope for Jeffress.

[dixieflatline]

While I generally agree with you that drafting HS pitchers early in the draft is a bad idea when you put the cutoff at recent first round picks you do leave out Yo who was drafted early in the 2nd round. Certainly, most of these guys are going to fail but assuming Yo lives up to the hype and becomes a #1-2 starter then I think that more than balances out all the failures you listed (and Rogers isn't toast yet).

 

There are times when drafting these guys make sense. From what I read Jeffress was top 10 talent and fell to the crew. When that happens then I don't have a problem with the pick. And not to beat a dead horse but if I was drafting I would have gone HS pitcher but it would have been Bailey not Rogers (and I, and others, posted this at the time). Some of these guys do pan out and can become stars. Saying that you never should draft one is going to far IMO. Leaning twoards a college bat if things are close though does make sense.

[And That]

when you put the cutoff at recent first round picks you do leave out Yo

 

I think there's a huge difference between 1st and 2nd round selections, just based on signing bonus alone. Teams are wise to catch falling guys in round 2 (like Yo and sort of, Hardy), and pick wisely in round 1. Heck, even Neugie wasn't as much of a waste as Gold due to his 2nd-round selection.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think that teams have moved so far in the college direction, perhaps due to Moneyball and the success of the As, but also due to a short-term philosophy, that there are tremendous bargains to be had in prep players. Teams like the Braves and Dodgers have cleaned up later in the 1st round and in the supplementals for that reason...the Mets and Twins, too, to some extent. Even the As went that way last year, perhaps for that very reason. Of course each of those teams also have multiple high picks most years, so they can spread the risk among several prep picks and still get something out of a draft even if there are a couple of busts.

 

When you're picking at 5 or 7, though, I think the calculus needs to be a bit different, particularly if you're a team without multiple picks in the first two rounds. Throwing away a pick is all that much more painful when you are passing on some very good talents and also have to wait forty or fifty slots before you get another. Thus I am happier with the Jeffress pick than I was with Rogers.

[UWRyan428]

As many have previously stated, Moneyball's approach wasn't so much "Take the college kid" as much as it was "Identify that which is undervalued..."

[colbyjack]

When you're picking at 5 or 7, though, I think the calculus needs to be a bit different, particularly if you're a team without multiple picks in the first two rounds. Throwing away a pick is all that much more painful when you are passing on some very good talents and also have to wait forty or fifty slots before you get another. Thus I am happier with the Jeffress pick than I was with Rogers.

 

Well put SoCal. I never had a problem with Jeffress because he was a relative steal at where the Brewers selected him. I heard some rumors in the spring that the Brewers would take Jeffress if he fell to them, something they didn't expect to happen.

 

I wouldn't have as big of a problem with the Brewers taking prep pitchers in the first round if they took pitchers that had a combination of stuff and savvy. All of the pitchers that have crashed and burned have actually done so because of injury more so than anything else, but even a college guy (one that went to Yale to boot) like Jon Steitz was more about his pure stuff than his ability to pitch. This is why I liked Jeremy Sowers so much, and it's no surprise he had a very good rookie year for the Indians next year and should continue to succeed.

 

The Brewers should take a page from their own big-league team and look at guys like Capuano, Bush and the recently departed Davis and realize that you don't have to throw 95-100 to be a very good pitcher. I know the Brewers are tryinig to hit a home run on each of their first round picks, but at some point I feel they are going to kill themselves if they don't take a safer approach when it comes to pitching.

 

I agree that it is basically the top 10 picks and then every other pick, so hopefully after next June this isn't even an issue.