Aubrey Huff anyone?

[MNBrew]

Ensberg strikes out at a higher rate (roughly 1 K/7 AB) than Huff (roughly 1 per 5 AB)

Wouldn't that mean Huff strikes out a higher rate?

Oops. Flipped the numbers around. Thanks for the catch, twobrewers.

 

[MNBrew]

Ensberg had one really great year and really no other years that were all-around super offensively. With hitting numbers like those he put up the last two years, plus a good walk rate and non-poor defense and some of you saying he'd be an ideal #2 hitter (what ideal #2 hitter hits in the .240 range? Sorry, but that reeks of a #8 hitter, NOT a #2), he sure sounds an awful lot like Craig Counsell with more pop.

 

The guy is in a 2-year hitting slump. As valuable as OBP is, I have much less faith and interest in a guy who can't hit better than the .240 range. I'm not going to place much hope for the improvement of our offense in a guy who walks a fair amount but still hits with a Damian Miller-like BA. That'd be like placing all your eggs in the basket of a Chris Capuano recovery of his '05 (was it '04?) form as the basis of improving your rotation. There are reasons for encouragement. But reality also has to factor in.

 

As much as we need OBP, we also need better BA, fewer Ks, and a lefty bat not named Gabe Gross or Craig Counsell - and not hitting like either of those guys, either.

 

I'd still rather keep Braun at 3B for now and get Lofton for the OF than move Braun to LF and create a Counsell-like void at 3B (where he's a void whether he's in the lineup or not).

[Gopher74]

Ensberg had one really great year and really no other years that were all-around super offensively. With hitting numbers like those he put up the last two years, plus a good walk rate and non-poor defense and some of you saying he'd be an ideal #2 hitter (what ideal #2 hitter hits in the .240 range? Sorry, but that reeks of a #8 hitter, NOT a #2), he sure sounds an awful lot like Craig Counsell with more pop.

 

The guy is in a 2-year hitting slump. As valuable as OBP is, I have much less faith and interest in a guy who can't hit better than the .240 range. I'm not going to place much hope for the improvement of our offense in a guy who walks a fair amount but still hits with a Damian Miller-like BA. That'd be like placing all your eggs in the basket of a Chris Capuano recovery of his '05 (was it '04?) form as the basis of improving your rotation. There are reasons for encouragement. But reality also has to factor in.

 

As much as we need OBP, we also need better BA, fewer Ks, and a lefty bat not named Gabe Gross or Craig Counsell - and not hitting like either of those guys, either.

 

I'd still rather keep Braun at 3B for now and get Lofton for the OF than move Braun to LF and create a Counsell-like void at 3B (where he's a void whether he's in the lineup or not).

Hey, a .400 hitter with a .400 OBP is always preferable to a .200 hitter with a .400 OBP, but the OBP is obviously the key stat.

 

If you can put in Ensberg with a OBP of .396, I honestly wouldn't care if his BA was only .235 again. To get two guys who'll have OBP's in the high .300's(as I believe that Weeks will be near .400 next year) hitting in front of Prince and Braun is nearly ideal. That alone is going to produce a lot more runs for the Brewers. Yes, a ideal number 2 hitter would carry a high OBP, be a good contact hitter...and essentially be Derek Jeter, but that may not be possible. So short of that, a guy who can pick it, and gets on base for our sluggers, a 3-4-5 that should rival any in the league, would be absolutely huge for the Brewers.

 

And finally, nobody's placing "all our egg's" in his basket offensively. WE are doing so defensively, and that's certainly better than counting on Ryan Braun at 3rd.

 

Morgan Ensberg is about as far from a "sexy" choice as you can get, but that does not mean he's a bad one. In fact, if we could be assured of his 06 season(.235 BA, .396 OBP), I'd jump all over that and be thrilled to do it. Then factor in that we'd likely get him without giving up any players, and for about 3 or so million and I'd be absolutely giddy.

[And That]

Gopher74, please refrain from quoting full posts.

[M Skjellyfetti]

Ensberg had one really great year and really no other years that were all-around super offensively.

 

He actually had 2 really great all-around years: 2003 and 2005. Also, as Gopher mentioned, we don't need an all-around offensive stud in our lineup. The most glaring hole in the Brewers' offense is OBP.

what ideal #2 hitter hits in the .240 range? Sorry, but that reeks of a #8 hitter, NOT a #2

 

IIRC, studies tend to show that OBP is more important at the top of the batting order than average. As Gopher said, a guy with a higher average and the same OBP would be more ideal, but I don't see many viable options that are very obtainable.

 

The guy is in a 2-year hitting slump. As valuable as OBP is, I have much less faith and interest in a guy who can't hit better than the .240 range.

 

This is the potential dealbreaker. Ensberg's BA has been pretty bad the past two years (although he made up for it with an amazing walk rate in 2006), mostly because of two years of bad batting average on balls in play. However, his line-drive % has still been on pace with his career norms throughout this time. While we can't say for certain that he has been hitting the ball just as hard as he did during his good years, it would be a safer bet to say that's the case than to say the converse is true based on the data we have. It would appear that Ensberg has simply been unlucky when he hits the ball, and hard-hit balls aren't translating into hits as often as they should. I think this is a valid assumption to make because players have low years in BABIP all the time and usually tend to bounce back. While Ensberg did have two bad BABIP years in a row, he only had 669 ABs in that timespan, so it's more like 1.5 bad seasons. All this data seems to point to a good chance of a turnaround next year, and a solid batting average (in the .250 to .260 range) in addition to everything else he brings to the table. Because OPS and OBP are better depictors of offensive production, I can definitely live with a .250 average with an above average OBP and OPS.

 

That'd be like placing all your eggs in the basket of a Chris Capuano recovery of his '05 (was it '04?) form as the basis of improving your rotation. There are reasons for encouragement. But reality also has to factor in.

 

I don't understand what you're trying to say here about reality factoring in. I feel that reality was depicted in the paragraph above.

[strawbossisevil]

A #2 hitters job is to get on base. Something Ensberg does very well. His average may be low, but every single option we have for 3B is going to have its warts, and as has been pointed out on this website time and time again, BA is an extremely over-rated stat.

 

If Miller would get on nearly 40% of the time with a batting average in the .240s, he would be a heck of a catcher, and would be worthy of the #2 spot in the lineup as well.

 

The point is to generate as many baserunners as we can for when Braun and Fielder step to the plate, and the one stat that tells us about that is OBP, not BA. BA just looks sexy on baseball cards, but has little to do at all with actual production (especially early in the order where very few runners will be on base).

 

Truth be told every 3B we could acquire has his warts or his downside:

 

Huff is very mediocre himself and has only gotten on about 34% of the time in his career (hardly ideal for the #2 spot). His defense also moved him off of 3B because of his lack or range (something not evidenced by the fielding percentage numbers you listed earlier). There is a reason he's played outfield and 1st base, its because he's not a very good 3B. He is also going to cost us a great deal of young talent.

 

Rolen has injury issues. And is going to be expensive in the players it will take to get him. Yes, he would be the ideal player that I'd want at 3B for the crew, because he's all around a solid player, but once again he's going to come at a cost both in players and in the millions of dollars we'll be paying him for the next three seasons.

 

Blalock has his numbers enhanced by playing in a hitters ballpark. He also can't hit lefties to save his life, and would need to be platooned. Not to mention he'd cost a lot in terms of young players.

 

Finally, Ensberg. He gets on base, he plays solid defense, and he's not going to cost us a single young player. The difference between him and Huff and Blalock is marginal at most, and he's likely to be cheaper as well. I'd rather we not trade our minor leaguers for what could be marginal improvement over Ensberg (if you could call it improvement at all - I actually think Ensberg is more valuable than Huff and Blalock - especially if you don't overvalue BA or the Lefthandedness).

[Milltownhooker]

Lofton & Ensberg would both be good back-up plans for Braun. If Braun's defense improves Lofton/Kapler become the LF option. If Braun has to be moved to LF. It gives the Crew two fallback options at 3rd. Ensbergto 3rd and Lofton/Kapler to the bench, or Hall to 3rd Kapler/Lofton to CF.

[TooLiveBrew]

what ideal #2 hitter hits in the .240 range? Sorry, but that reeks of a #8 hitter, NOT a #2

I'll frame it this way - who did you prefer hitting near the top of the order in 2007 - Weeks or Estrada? It's not all about BA - if you ignore BBs, it's easy to mistakenly declare that a certain guy wouldn't be a good top-of-lineup hitter. If Ensberg is our fallback option, that's a pretty darn good fallback. He's always had ridiculous BB rates.

[logan82]

I'll frame it this way - who did you prefer hitting near the top of the order in 2007 - Weeks or Estrada? It's not all about BA - if you ignore BBs, it's easy to mistakenly declare that a certain guy wouldn't be a good top-of-lineup hitter. If Ensberg is our fallback option, that's a pretty darn good fallback. He's always had ridiculous BB rates.

I like the Estrada Weeks comparison. I think about those guys everytime somebody starts talking about BA and OBP. Talk about extremes in BA compared to OBP.

[ILuvDaBush]

Does anyone else think it's funny that Weeks hit basically .240 last year and sported a higher OBP than Braun?

[logan82]

Weeks hit .235 last year which put him as our worst everyday player BA wise, but he got on base at a .374 clip which put him as our 2nd best guy at getting on base behind only Fielder.

 

EDIT: Sorry, I should have said Fielder, Dillon and Wise.

[ILuvDaBush]

Next year..."ENSBERG hit .225 last year which put him as the NL's worst everyday 3B BA-wise, but he got on base at a .394 clip, which put him as the NL's third best guy at getting on base behind Chipper and Wright."

[MNBrew]

Weeks hit .235 last year which put him as our worst everyday player BA wise, but he got on base at a .374 clip which put him as our 2nd best guy at getting on base behind only Fielder.

It's also worth noting that Weeks' BA rose considerably and his OBP rose monstrously after he'd been down in AAA and gotten at least somewhat back on track. If memory serves, he was a BB machine after his recall.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

and the spike in BA & OBP came largely after his wrist was cleaned out. Higher SLG = higher OBP, generally speaking. Watch out for Rickie in 2008. If you have a fantasy league, you can probably nab him well before many realize how good he's going to be.

[jaybird2001wi]

Aubrey Huff has some off-the-field issues that may put him out of favor with the "family crowd" in Milwaukee. There is a NSFW "video" of him out there with an "actress" that caused some issues with a radio station in Baltimore.

[sbrylski]

Aubrey Huff has some off-the-field issues that may put him out of favor with the "family crowd" in Milwaukee. There is a NSFW "video" of him out there with an "actress" that caused some issues with a radio station in Baltimore.

Link? To ah, um...confirm...er.... yeah.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

sbryl, forever searching for integrity... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[jaybird2001wi]

OK, Aubrey Huff and some adult film star named "Melissa Midwest" had a little rendezvous awhile back. Click this. This adult film star allowed him to paint parts of her....

 

Here is a much more clearer deal of this "actress'es" approach to Aubrey Huff: click this

[SmartBall]

I'm on board, lets get this man in a Brewers uni today

[Oldcity]

he sure sounds an awful lot like Craig Counsell with more pop.

Wouldn't that make him a pretty good hitter?

 

[logan82]

and a good defender?