Brewer Patience = Wins, and a Capuano Stat

[molitor fan]

Hopefully this little snatch of research is met with a better response than my last bit o'baseball-reference culled trivia...

 

The Brewers offense drew 5 or more walks on 33 occasions last year, drawing 5 thirteen times, 6 eleven times, and 7 or more in nine instances.

 

Their record in those 33 ballgames was 27-6.

 

Also, Capuano had by far the most instances of receiving 2 or fewer runs of support amongst Brewer starters last year. Cappy had 10 instances, Bush and Suppan had 6, Sheets had 3, and Vargas, Villy, and Gallardo each had 1. When a pitcher with marginal stuff gets it in their head that they have no room for error, they sometimes become too fine with their pitches - perhaps this is what was the cause of some of the travails last year for Cappy.

[dadofandrew]

I looked at box scores for much of one year, and the team who walked more won about 80-90% of the time. It's astounding really, but it makes sense, baserunners = runs.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yep - the Rockies led the NL in OBP last year, and I bet the BoSux led the AL, too.

[Fatter than Joey]

It's astounding really, but it makes sense, baserunners = runs.

 

It's more than that -- It's making pitchers throw more pitches, less double plays, etc...

[pitchleague]

yup, apparently Cappy picked up "Ben Sheets Disease" this season with the lack of run support. I kind of observed that during the season, too.

 

The whole walks thing and the nice W-L record is, really, no surprise. But a good find!

[Tbadder]

Ah...some hope, but has the psychological damage been done? Losing takes an awful toll.

[rluzinski]

This has been said many times before but Capuano didn't have nearly as bad a season last year as many seem to think. His K rate was normal, walk rate went back to around career rate. Same for HR rate. His BABIP was bad (unless he was giving up line drives all over the place, not directly his fault) and his left on base percentage was bad (we could debate if that was more a result of random chance or Cappy doing something different in those situations). Anyway, that all added up to a 5.1 ERA. Bad but not insanly terrible. The only thing really terrible about him last year was his winless streak and lack of run support was a significant factor. For the season overall, of the 54 NL pitchers with at least 140 IP last year, he had the 1oth worst run support).

 

As for the walk stat, it's interesting to be sure but doesn't really tell us much beyond the obvious. When the Brewers positive offensive stats are at their extreme, they win a alot of ballgames. You could do that with any offensive stat, really. (walks, hits, doubles, HRs, etc...). Same goes for pitching (strikouts, walks, etc...).

 

Ah...some hope, but has the psychological damage been done? Losing takes an awful toll.

 

The average professional athlete is a pretty resilient person. I think Cappy will be fine in 2008, psycholigically.

[JohnBriggs12]

You guys have been sugarcoating Capuano. He's been bad since July 1, 2006.

 

Yes his run support wasn't good in 2007. But rarely did he keep games close. His WHIP was 1.49. That's not good or even average. Sure it's not horrendous but it's still among the bottom of the starters in the NL.

 

In his last 255 innings going back to July 2006, he's surrendered 39 home runs. Teams have slugged over .450 off of him in that time. Those are not good numbers and that's not a small sample.

 

Is his W/L record a little skewed? Sure. Instead of 5-12 last year, he could easily have been 8-11 or so. But is that good?

[homer]

His high WHIP is likely due to a high BABIP (batting avg on balls in play) which, as Russ said, is based on luck unless guys are spraying line drives all over the place.

[JohnBriggs12]

His high WHIP is likely due to a high BABIP (batting avg on balls in play) which, as Russ said, is based on luck unless guys are spraying line drives all over the place.

Did you watch him? He gave up rockets, not bloops. At least that's what I saw.

 

Can he turn it around. Sure it's possible. Should the Brewers count on it? That's the question they have to answer. Many of you guys preaching patience with Capuano, are trying to move Braun off of 3B at all costs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

People like to hearken back to Capuano's all-star performance and solid 2005 to remember him as a solid starting pitcher...before last season started quite a few people viewed him as a fringe 'ace'. During 2005 and 2006, Capuano was among the league leaders in run support - while his statistical numbers didn't deviate much from his career norms in 2007, his run support did, which was a big reason he couldn't win a game. Since the 2006 all-star break, Capuano's been very average, even borderline bad.

 

Looking at his numbers from the past 3 seasons, the only conclusion that can be made regarding Capuano is that he's a slightly above average starting pitcher who will rapidly become too expensive for a small market team to afford keeping on their roster. His production could easily be replaced by younger, cheaper pitchers with more upside. Capuano was probably overvalued when he was getting 6-7 runs of support every time he toed the rubber, and he's probably been undervalued since he had a poor 2007. I'd put more emphaisis on bad luck with regards to his BABIP and LOB% if he had better stuff and hadn't remembered him constantly get himself into jams, fall behind in counts, and be forced to throw predictable pitches to good hitters.

[homer]

"Did you watch him? He gave up rockets, not bloops. At least that's what I saw. "

 

That's what you remember. Is there a LD% for pitchers out there somewhere?

[Fatter than Joey]

Ennder said this in another thread about Cappy:

 

This isn't a guy that I expect a 4.00 ERA or lower from. His 4.39 career ERA pretty much paints a picture of what kind of guy he is and last year wasn't any different than 2005. A SP in a weak division in the NL who is a 4.39 ERA type guy is not some amazing pitcher, he is just a guy at the back end of the rotation.

 

I think that this is probably accurate. Cappy had a bad 2007, but not as bad as the numbers indicate.

 

I think though you have to frame this discussion, that unlike Bush or Vargas (or even Suppan), there was a lot of "Cappy is our ace" discussions about 1.5 seasons ago. Whether those expectations were legitimate or not is one thing, but if you assume those assumptions were reasonable (he was an All-Star), the realization that Cappy is at best a #4, or #5 starter is a disappointment.

[rluzinski]

Did you watch him? He gave up rockets, not bloops.

Thinking back to the ~500 balls that were put into play against Cappy last year, I do not recall whether or not he gave up a greater than average number of hard hit balls. I am skeptical that anyone could objectively answer that question simply from watching games and trying to keep track of it all in their head. You would basically have to have photographic memory while being able to accurately assess the relative velocity of each hit ball. That's why most of us have to look at compiled statistics to get a handle on these kind of questions. Let's look at Cappy's line drive, flyball and groundball rates from last year, compared to previous years (thanks, fangraphs.com):

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1701_P_season_full_9_20071001.png

The way I see it, for the average ball in play, all line drives, many flyballs and a few groundballs could be labeled as "rockets". Cappy increased his groundball rate while decreasing his line drive and flyball rate last year. That doesn't prove beyond a doubt that he wasn't hit harder last year but it does suggest that it's highly unlikely. What's much more likely is that because you know Cappy had a bad record and ERA last season, you simply remember the hard hit balls more than the soft ones. I'm not trying to pick on you since it's human nature to do just that. It's why I don't even try to make generlizations based on large, compiled-in-my-mind samples anymore, since I'm usually wrong (defense being especially difficult).

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, rluz. Can we please stop the ignorance regarding Capuano? It's really frustrating to read about how he SUKKZ in numerous threads, and then Ennder or rluz or someone has to basically throw it out there with blinking lights for people to pay attention.

[rluzinski]

Well, everyone is entitled to their opinion. If they think Cappy SUXors, so be it. The problem is when they take that opinion, put a wig and dress on it and try and present it as fact.

[TooLiveBrew]

Everyone is indeed entitled to their opinion - and I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. There are several aspects of his game last year that were bad - no question. But they were the ones that tend to fluctuate for every pitcher and are somewhat to almost entirely out of a pitcher's control. Sorry I was a tad bristly back there - it's not that you can't make some compelling points about Cappy's WOAHs last year, but it seems like (see- there I go!) when the argument is presented that he was bad, it's based on ERA, W-L, and the hits he surrendered. Even Ennder's post where he displayed ERAs adjusted for a neutral/constant bullpen factor shows you why the Capuano argument has more than initially meets the eye.

[Thurston Fluff]

Let me start by saying I'm fine withh Cappy getting another shot and I do believe he will rebound from last year. I do wonder if maybe his performance was better than perhaps his secondary numbers would have indicated during his good times though. Those who are more astute with average numbers league wide could asnwer that beter than I.

I agree ERA isn't a good way to evaluate future performance but it does a good job of saying, for whatever reason, he wasn't very good last year. Maybe all his other numbers are in line with his past but then he never managed to put together two good halves in a row. In fact since he's been here he's faultered after July. Maybe some of those numbers although similar to the past may never have been as good as they appeared either. You can put lipstick on it but last year's performance was still a pig.

I think something that may be overlooked is the effect having a catcher who had a history of not being on the same page as pitchers or coaches had on him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Your point about Estrada may well have some validity to it.

 

I do wonder if maybe his performance was better than perhaps his secondary numbers would have indicated during his good times though.

 

Bingo. Ennder, I hope you have that post you made a few days ago on Capuano saved & readily available. I'm getting the feeling it's going to be very necessary this offseason. I'd quote it, but can't remember where it is - probably because it's been in so many different discussions.

[pitchleague]

I'll point out now that I never said he sucked in my post. I just noticed that he had some bad luck like Sheets did/does all those years. I'm sure he'll be fine. heck, he definitely would have won some games had he had some run support the last few months.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it's fair to say he sucked last year. His job is to help the team win games and he didn't do that. His ERA regardless of how it got that way was not one many players would say was ok or not indicative of struggles. His other numbers might indicate it was bad luck and he will bounce back but that doesn't change the fact that he didn't produce well enough to remain n the rotation. Looking forward I think we could expect him to be better than 07 but I'm not sure if 05 or 06 were any better indicators of his real ability than 07 was. Somewhere in the middle the truth may lay.

[Oldcity]

The best part is I guarantee many of the people who are saying he sucks are the same people who were calling him the ace in '06.

[TerraceReserved]

I think it's fair to say he sucked last year.

On the surface, it definitely appears that Capuano sucked last year. Then it's just opinion on whether you think he sucked becuase he pitched bad or simply had bad luck while pitching. I believe it was bad luck, for reasons that rluz and ender have pointed out already.

Looking forward I think we could expect him to be better than 07 but I'm not sure if 05 or 06 were any better indicators of his real ability than 07 was. Somewhere in the middle the truth may lay

Exactly. There's no doubt that in 05-06 Cappy pitched better than he really was. He had xFIPs of 4.64 and 4.32 those years. In 07 he put up an xFIP of 4.39, which coinidentally is his career ERA, and is what I think we should expect out of him next year.

[Ennder]

I think it's fair to say he sucked last year

 

Only if you use the wrong tools to evaluate pitching. W's and ERA are team stats. During his losing streak Capuano had 3 games where he went 7 IP with 2 ER and didn't get a win, he had one where he went 8 IP with 1 ER and one with 5 IP 1 ER and didn't get the win in any of them.

 

As I said in the other post, if you swap the bullpen support of Suppan and Capuano you end up with a 4.40ish ERA for Capuano and a 5ish ERA for Suppan. ERA is just the wrong tool to go about evaluating pitchers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pitchleague, I never felt that you were saying Cappy sucks/ed. Your post was informative on the run support, actually.

 

Capuano will be much closer to his 05/06 numbers next year.