Catalanotto now in play?

[And That]

I'm with MolitorFan, and one look at the 3B fielding stats will show you that several 3B are not much better than Braun, though it's tough to argue he was the worst. I think there are 3-5 that are only a bit better...and those guys are probably about 10-20 runs below average.

 

I admit, with some of the freedoms taken here, it's getting pretty difficult to sift through the quality, well thought out stuff, versus the barrage of one-liners that are thought to be witty, yet add nothing to the discussion, and are baseless in fact.

I find the bolded/italicized bit exceptionally ironic after the first two sentences I quoted.

"I think... probably" where are your facts, Al? And why do we need a horrible defensive third baseman with a great bat, or a horrible offensive third baseman with a great glove? It's about as severe an overreaction as you could have to replace Braun with Feliz. Feliz certainly has value, and he might even fit in with the Brewers, but that doesn't mean a guy with an average bat and average glove wouldn't be even more useful.

As I've been saying all along, if we can find a third baseman that could carry a .340-.350 OBP and would not be a liability in the field (read: he wouldn't have to be above average, or even exactly average), plopping him in at third and moving Braun to the outfield would vastly improve defense and offense.

 

FTJ and And That lead this little march saying that Braun is an incapable defender, and does not have the tools to ever be capable. I think they are full of beans....There I said it - you sirs, are full of beans.

 

Incapable currently? Yes, that's not even debatable. Well, you could try to debate it but you wouldn't get very far as long as you're using pretty much any valid defensive metric. As far as "does not have the tools to ever be capable" - I've never said that. I don't believe FTJ has said that either. What we, amongst many others (on behalf of FTJ, thanks for singling us out), have said is that the Brewers aren't in a position to experiment defensively anymore. A few years ago, sure. Turns out we're a good team now and need to squeeze all the talent we can out of the diamond. Leaving Braun at third base does not meet that end.

 

Not sure if this comment is worthy of me saying something that will get myself a strike or even banned. But wow, just wow. I guess I will leave it at that.

 

What are you talking about? If you feel strongly enough about something, let it out! Use your words.

[clancyphile]

Catalanotto at third is an option.

 

He's played some at that position earlier in his career, with a .940 fielding %.

[Fatter than Joey]

"I think... probably" where are your facts, Al?

 

Yeah -- Al's statement seems rather unsubstantiated.

 

I've never said that. I don't believe FTJ has said that either. What we, amongst many others (on behalf of FTJ, thanks for singling us out), have said is that the Brewers aren't in a position to experiment defensively anymore.

 

Yep. Well said Toby (You speak for me better than I could). I think Braun could MAYBE in 2-3 years could improve to be passable at 3b. Every single scout/stat seems to indicate that Braun is not going to cut it as a 3b. It doesn't seem like a prudent move for a team that's sniffing the playoff to make. I think the risk is far greater than the payoff.

 

I find it funny that those who put down a very good defensive option, like Pedro Feliz or Tony Gwynn Jr

 

A couple of problems with the statement.

 

1. Pedro Feliz -- The Pedro Feliz argument is a bit leading, it's not like anyone is advocating removing Braun's bat from the lineup for Feliz's glove. It is an interesting debate to have, who would you rather have play 3b Feliz or Braun -- I'd be just fine with Feliz playing 3b, if Braun was playing LF. Feliz is not the first guy I'd want DM to target for sure, but in a pinch he'll do.

 

2. TGJ. -- Just because TGJ has no ability to get the ball out of the OF, does not mean that he is a stellar defender.

[logan82]

B) Third base is a much more important position defensively

Not so sure about that. A 1B is involved in way more plays than a 3B. A good 1B can make the rest of your infield look better. A bad one can make them look worse. Not that our infield helps Fielder look better, but I think he somewhat compounds the problem.

[TooLiveBrew]

"The reason I like Ryan at 3B is the same reason I like Joe Mauer at C...they could be historically good there."

 

He cancelled out roughly 75% of his offense by stinking with the leather last year. Not sure how you can arrive at this assumption. How is this issue even still up in the air? Braun is a horrible, horrible 3Bman at this point, and as mentioned we can't roll the dice and hope it all turns out ok in 2008. Is this like global warming where it's a vast internet conspiracy, and he's actually not that bad?

[danzig6767]

dadofandrew wrote:

The reason I like Ryan at 3B is the same reason I like Joe Mauer at C...they could be historically good there. Mauer though is very good defensively, but it's tough for him to stay healthy. Braun could easily work his way to the next level (which would be like Cabrera or Encarnacion), and could then move up to being average or maybe just a bit below. Of course, that will take years overall.

 

As I've said, I find it funny that those who put down a very good defensive option, like Pedro Feliz or Tony Gwynn Jr, constantly belittle their defensive worth, yet have no problem exaggerating Ryan's shortcomings. Feliz is the best defensive 3B in the game and is worth about +20 runs, while Gwynn might well be worth +10/15 over Hall, who I would expect to be even to 10 runs to the good in 2008. Yet, we hear Feliz would cost the team 50 runs at the plate and still be horrible, even though no numbers point to that.

 

I admit, with some of the freedoms taken here, it's getting pretty difficult to sift through the quality, well thought out stuff, versus the barrage of one-liners that are thought to be witty, yet add nothing to the discussion, and are baseless in fact.

1. Looking at the offensive production in baseball last year of thirdbasemen vs leftfielders, there was no big wide gulf and the two were fairly comparable. You make it out like Melvin or people here are wanting to move Braun from shortstop or secondbase to left instead of third to left. Having a great hitting player in left is nearly as valuable as having one at thirdbase, defense aside.

 

2. Sure it's possible that Braun could improve enough at third over the next couple years to where he's no longer a massive defensive liability, but we aren't the Davey Lopes Brewers with zero chance to compete for a playoff berth and Braun butchering balls hit to him possibly costing games while he learned wouldn't be a big deal. We saw last year that every game does matter now as evidenced by missing a division title by only two games. This obviously is the reason Doug has checked into nearly every possible thirdbasemen that might be available, Melvin would prefer to not have Braun cost us games now while he learns to play third. If this was 2002 Brewers, i'm sure Doug and everyone here wouldn't care nearly as much if Braun stunk up the joint at third while he learned.

 

3. As for people not being thrilled with the option of Feliz or Gwynn, why should they be and Doug obviously feels the same right now or a move like that could have been made already. Maybe things end up shaking out to where Melvin can't get a guy to play third that can both hit decently/play solid defense and Melvin has to settle for an option that's less appealing than he had hoped for, but what's the point of Melvin or even fans settling for a more last case option like Feliz given spring training doesn't start for a few months?

 

It certainly isn't just fans wanting Braun moved from third, our GM seemed to have checked into any thirdbasemen with a pulse and Doug also seemed to have as much interest in Feliz as fans here, which is not much.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I admit, with some of the freedoms taken here, it's getting pretty difficult to sift through the quality, well thought out stuff, versus the barrage of one-liners that are thought to be witty, yet add nothing to the discussion, and are baseless in fact.

 

You mean condescending crap like "oof" and "heh"?

[danzig6767]

I admit, with some of the freedoms taken here, it's getting pretty difficult to sift through the quality, well thought out stuff, versus the barrage of one-liners that are thought to be witty, yet add nothing to the discussion, and are baseless in fact.

 

You mean condescending crap like "oof" and "heh"?

This should probably be in a peeves thread and i might sound like an old fart, but

 

I've often wondered why grown adults use internet lingo like LOL or hehe when posting on the net. My teenage daughter does it along with many of her friends, but i'd feel dorky doing it. Maybe it's because i see my teenage daughter do it all the time along with her friends, but whenever i see someone using those terms i almost expect to also see spelling of words like cuz, RU instead of are you, or wuz up. I remember the one time i typed LOL and after about 5-10 seconds of seeing it on the monitor, i had to go and hit the backspace key. Even worse is the ROTFL or ROTFLMAO, is anyone typing that really rolling on the floor and laughing?

[trwi7]

or wuz up.

 

Just had a flashback to 2001.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

[sveumrules]

He cancelled out roughly 75% of his offense by stinking with the leather last year.

i know the 75 % figure was thrown out by some big sportswriter in a nationally published column and all, but i have a hard time buying into that.

 

maybe i'm living in the statistical dark age but i always figured the quickest (note i said the quickest, not the "best") way to determine someone's offensive worth was the old runs created (rbi + r - hr), which if you plug in braun's totals ends up at 97 + 91 - 34 = 154 runs that were either scored or driven in by ryan braun.

 

now i know that rbi and runs are meaningless because they're opportunity based counting stats and dependant on other people either scoring on your hits or driving you in when you're on base, but still, based on the situations ryan braun found himself in during the 2007 season he had a hand (one opportunistic way or another) in 154 runs crossing the plate.

 

i concur that ryan braun's defense was terrible at thrid, but did it really cost the crew almost 116 runs?

[homer]

To say that Braun was not horrible defensively in '07 is like saying that the world is flat. Now it's OPINION as to whether or not he will improve to acceptable numbers but it is FACT that he stunk last year.

 

And I think we can do without the ultra heavy doses of condescension. If you want, start a blog and be condescending....or do it on your existing blog.

[lukevan]

i concur that ryan braun's defense was terrible at thrid, but did it really cost the crew almost 116 runs?

 

No it didn't, but your formula isn't very scientific. You're basically counting runs created twice if you use RBI and Runs. E.G. You're giving Braun a run when he scores and Fielder an RBI when he drives him in, even though the net result is only 1 run.

[Brian the Automator]

Couldn't you just go in and see how many runs were let in after he committed an error and then subtracted from his runs created? Very unscientific, but i'm curious as to how many unearned runs were scored in braun-error inning.

[Fatter than Joey]

i concur that ryan braun's defense was terrible at thrid, but did it really cost the crew almost 116 runs?

 

Theoretically it certainly could -- if you assign a run total to each of his errors/misplays, based on how "opportunistic" his errors were it could add up to a lot of runs -- which is the problem of giving a lot of weight to RBI's and Runs.

 

I think there is a lot of room for debate on how bad Braun was at 3b, but no matter how thin you slice it, I think he is inadequate.

[lukevan]

I think there is a lot of room for debate on how bad Braun was at 3b, but no matter how thin you slice it, I think he is inadequate.

 

I agree completely. I don't think this offseason will be complete without Braun in LF and someone new at 3B, and this is a move that was predicted by some scouts/fans before Braun played a single inning in MLB. I really think Braun's defense could be above average for LF with his speed and arm.

[RobertR]

Couldn't you just go in and see how many runs were let in after he committed an error and then subtracted from his runs created? Very unscientific, but i'm curious as to how many unearned runs were scored in braun-error inning.

 

The problem with this approach is that it basically only tackles the direct costs of an error and not the indirect costs. Like starting pitchers having to make more pitches and perhaps leaving games earlier with slack to be picked up by relievers. And the cascade effect of the bullpen having to work harder than necessary.

 

Not to mention, errors weren't the only problem Braun had defensively. Plenty of balls got through that an average fielder may have gotten to.

 

I fully agree that the run cost of Braun's defense is at best going to be a rough estimate. Especially compared to his offensive contributions. That said, every estimate I've seen has been very bad, if not historically bad. And the fact that the Brewers are in a window of contention does play a role in how patient you are with that defense.

 

Robert

[JohnBriggs12]

I can't believe how 3 months of no baseball has clouded peoples opinion of Braun. When the games were going on, the concern over his defense was there but the consensus was far and away that his offense more than offset it and that he was capable of improving. Had he been as bad as some on here suggest, this entire board would have been up in arms. Instead, and rightfully so, most of the Brewer fan wrath was directed at Ned Yost, and Derrick Turnbow. Now nobody is talking about how they are bringing back a bad manager or that Turnbow is going to be in the mix (Again) after repeated failures, or how they are relying on an ace that can't get out of bed without getting injured, everyone's focus is on how to replace the Rookie of the Year.

 

That people got excited about bringing in an overpriced, broken down malcontent like Rolen who their divisional rival can't get rid of fast enough is amazing to me.

 

Sure Braun has troubles defensively. But the franchise invested heavily in him being a 3rd baseman. Not only did they pick him as high as they did because he played 3rd, just last June they selected the most advanced bat (La Porta) in the draft to play left field where everyone on here seems to want to put Braun.

 

This team finished 2 games out in the division with Braun at 3rd. They blew a ton of leads with bad pitching not just bad defense. The amount of unearned runs allowed (68) was fewer than they allowed in 2006 (70) and 2004 (78).

 

I'm all for Braun playing some OF. It would give our challanged manager the option of moving Braun to LF late in games and replacing him at 3B for defense without taking his bat out of the lineup.

 

At the same time, I have confidence that Braun is enough of an athlete and competitor that he can improve enough to be adequate defensively at 3B in 2008. It's far too early to be blowing up a long term plan that was put in place with the drafting of LaPorta to be a leftfielder.

[Fatter than Joey]

I fully agree that the run cost of Braun's defense is at best going to be a rough estimate.

 

Yes -- We can't let inadequate metrics or rough estimates distract from the big picture. Oftentimes a rough estimate is good enough.

 

Too me it boils down to knowing that when your manager trades Ryan Braun's bat for Craig Counsell's glove on more than one occasion -- you have a big problem.

[lukevan]

This team was finished 2 games out in the division with Braun at 3rd.

 

Maybe they would've won the division last year with Braun in LF and an offensively and defensively average 3B.

 

I get what you're saying that it's a little early to move Braun, but you have to look at just how far behind the average 3B he is defensively. Then consider that Braun said to Doug Melvin that he was willing to move wherever they need him. IMO Braun is the type of confident hitter that is less likely to be affected drastically by a position change. His errors last season obviously didn't weigh on his mind while he was in the batter's box.

 

As far as LaPorta is concerned, they could always go with Braun/Hart/LaPorta in 2010.

 

The amazing thing is that Braun is still a positive player even with all his defensive shortcomings. Think of how much he'd be worth as defensively league average LF!

[homer]

I can't believe how 3 months of no baseball has clouded peoples opinion of Braun.

 

I don't think people really took a hard look at Braun's defensive numbers until the ROY chase. But nonetheless, guys like FTJ were pointing out his inefficiencies at 3B long before season end. I joined him towards the end when we had a decent sized sample to look at. And any way you slice it, his numbers were abysmal. The only reason people weren't up in arms during the season is because he was putting up historic numbers on offense. The point most people are making is that even if he improves some at 3B, he will still be pretty bad and probably an average player overall. Why not put him in LF where he might be average on defense which makes him that much more valuable overall? As has been mentioned, the window is not infinite for this group to win - maxmizing player's value right away is key.

[JohnBriggs12]

I can't believe how 3 months of no baseball has clouded peoples opinion of Braun.

 

I don't think people really took a hard look at Braun's defensive numbers until the ROY chase. But nonetheless, guys like FTJ were pointing out his inefficiencies at 3B long before season end. I joined him towards the end when we had a decent sized sample to look at. And any way you slice it, his numbers were abysmal. The only reason people weren't up in arms during the season is because he was putting up historic numbers on offense. The point most people are making is that even if he improves some at 3B, he will still be pretty bad and probably an average player overall. Why not put him in LF where he might be average on defense which makes him that much more valuable overall? As has been mentioned, the window is not infinite for this group to win - maxmizing player's value right away is key.

Why not put him in LF? Because that's giving up on him at the position that caused them to draft both him and LaPorta (instead of a real postition of need like a catcher) after 100 games and there's reasonably priced short term alternatives for LF.

 

Braun's defense did not lose them the division. Sheets, at $10 million per year not being there at various times did as well as a 3 month offensive funk by Rickie Weeks. Think about it, how many guys pull groundballs to third against Sheets, a flyball and strikeout pitcher? In fact it could be argued, except for Suppan, the rotation is a flyball rotation and there isn't as much a premium on defense at third as you guys seem to think.

 

As for you guys sitting down an analyzing stats after the fact, well I think observing what's happening as it happens gives you a much clearer picture.

[Fatter than Joey]

When the games were going on, the concern over his defense was there but the consensus was far and away that his offense more than offset it and that he was capable of improving.

 

I think that his offense offsets his bad D, and I think that he is capable of improving, over the course of a couple of years. I don't think playing Braun at 3b is what the Dr. ordered for 2008.

 

Had he been as bad as some on here suggest, this entire board would have been up in arms.

 

I'm not sure what we could have done differently in 2007. We had Jenks/Mench in LF, and Hall in CF. I think the off-season is the time to make the adjustment.

 

Now nobody is talking about what how they are bringing back a bad manager or that Turnbow is going to be in the mix

 

In my defense -- I have never been happy with Yost, I just am resigned to the idea that he will be our manager for April/May 2008. As for Turnbow, I definitely over-reacted when DM made the comment that Turnbow could close, in between losing Cordero and signing Gagne.

 

But the franchise invested heavily in him being a 3rd baseman.

 

That doesn't make it a good idea -- a lot of scouts have said from day 1, Braun is an OF.

 

It's far too early to be blowing up a long term plan that was put in place with the drafting of LaPorta to be a leftfielder.

 

LaPorta hasn't even gotten to AAA yet -- It is a little early to be counting on him.

[homer]

"well I think observing what's happening as it happens gives you a much clearer picture. "

 

I observed him commit 26 errors. It wasn't until after the fact that this was put in historic perspective.

 

And drafting for need in baseball is a very risky proposition given the flameout rate.

 

Braun's defense did not lose them the division. Sheets, at $10 per year not being there at various times did as well as a 3 month offensive funk by Rickie Weeks. Think about it, how many guys pull groundballs to third against Sheets, a flyball and strikeout pitcher? In fact it could be argued, except for Suppan, the rotation is a flyball rotation and there isn't as much a premium on defense at third as you guys seem to think.

 

I don't think Braun by himself cost them the division but he certainly contributed. By several metrics and statisticians, he had the worst defensive year of any third baseman in 100 years. That hurts the team whether we want to admit it or not. If a guy can't field 90% of the balls hit his way he stinks. And thank goodness there isn't as big a premium at 3rd (as say, SS or 2B) or it might have been worse.

[JohnBriggs12]

"well I think observing what's happening as it happens gives you a much clearer picture. "

 

I observed him commit 26 errors. It wasn't until after the fact that this was put in historic perspective.

 

And drafting for need in baseball is a very risky proposition given the flameout rate.

Eddie Mathews made 30 errors in 1953 and led the NL in errors by a 3rd baseman 3 times in his first 6 years. He's a hall of famer.

 

When you draft a college senior with the 7th pick of the first round who plays the position where you have a guy with an expiring contract, you are drafting for need. College seniors don't normally get picked that high unless there is a strong possibility of them coming to the big leagues soon.

 

Here's a fact for you. Braun did not make one error when Ben Sheets was on the mound. Not one. He had one error in a game Sheets started but it was when Spurling was on the mound. You want his error total to go down? Keep Sheets healthy, and/or find more power flyball pitchers.

[RobertR]

Nobody lost the division by himself. Not Braun and not Sheets. Hall scuffled, Weeks was poor defensively and struggled offensively for much of the first 2/3rds of the season, Hardy regressed offensively in the second half, we got less than we thought we would out of catcher, Capuano had a down year, Bush seemed to regress, the bullpen was a weakness, Cordero gave up a big HR against the Cubs in a key game, etc.

 

Given that 1) Braun was terrible defensively in 2007, 2) you don't know how much he'll improve defensively, if at all, in 2008, and 3) with Jenkins and Mench gone you can move him to left field and possibly replace his glove with someone more accomplished right now, it's on the table. The idea is to give the team the best chance to win in 2008, and if moving Braun helps in that goal, then it should be done. If you can't find someone that's an improvement, in total package, to moving Braun, then he should stay put. And if Braun isn't upset by the idea of moving, we shouldn't be either.

 

Robert