SEA signs Carlos Silva (4 yr/48M)

[EdgarDiazRocks]

this is a fine conversation to be having, but none of it speaks to the fact that the M's are under the fallacy that they are contenders as it stands and if they dealt Beltre they have huge holes on BOTH corners of their infield, that and they are fairly happy with Adrian. Mike Morse as a starter isn't in the cards.

 

It's not happening.

[Gopher74]

this is a fine conversation to be having, but none of it speaks to the fact that the M's are under the fallacy that they are contenders as it stands and if they dealt Beltre they have huge holes on BOTH corners of their infield, that and they are fairly happy with Adrian. Mike Morse as a starter isn't in the cards.

 

It's not happening.

I wasn't saying that it would happen so much as I was trying to argue the fact that it was a good idea. I would be in favor of moving Hall with Cappy for Beltre and Ibanez or something like that, with us adding a good prospect, but that's more fantasy than reality. I don't imagine a team that think they're contenders would make such a move giving up two of their better everyday players.

 

But hey, it's something to look back at in maybe June if the M's are 10 games behind the Angels who look to be a much better team this year. In a perfect world, Cappy starts out like he did in 06 with 10 wins, and a ERA in the low 3's, and they decide to move Beltre and pay part of his salary.

 

But again, it was just in response to someone saying that he wasn't a good option.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

EDR, why would you suggest that the M's aren't contenders as they stand? It took a pretty big collapse down the stretch to keep them out of the postseason last year. Even with losing a bunch towards the end of the year, it was a two-horse race in the AL West between Seattle & LAA.

 

They had a borderline-unbelievably bad year from Sexson, and a hard time finding reliable back-of-rotation SP as the year wound down. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them around or north of 90 wins again in 2008.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

EDR, why would you suggest that the M's aren't contenders as they stand?

 

I really wish that were the case but look at the off-season moves. As in none. Right now Jones replaces Guillen...[maybe since they are hot to trade Jones for just about any starter], which in the best case scenario is a wash with last year offensively. Ibanez and Vidro are still in the lineup, and they aren't aging well.

 

The Angels are a better team by a wide margin. While the M's may pull into 2nd (and I stress "may", any injury to Felix or Ichiro is crushing) do you really think they can win a wildcard spot over Detroit, Cleveland, Boston or New York? I don't think the A's are going to be THAT bad and the Rangers look like they can hit. Sheesh . ..Seattle's 4th OF right now is Willie Bloomquist! And they are shopping Jones and Balentin. This isn't a brain trust running this outfit.

 

They actually had a story from their people the other day about how R.A. Dickey shores up the rotation. I kid you not . . .

 

http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071217&content_id=2328954&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea

 

 

[Ennder]

First of all, the guy's an absolute stud with the leather. The only 3rd baggers who IMO are superior right now would be maybe Eric Chavez and Mike Lowell and I honestly don't think Lowell is. He's better than Rolen IMO at this time.

 

David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman(even with the errors last year) and Pedro Feliz are the best defensive 3B in baseball right now and it isn't really close.

 

Statistically Beltre came out 11th last year (behind Counsell to give you an idea just how slick he was with the glove last year!). The statistics aren't as reliable as offensive though and he was right in the realm of all the tier 2 guys but those three listed above were in another league compared to the others. Crede, Rolen and Inge are all in that 2nd tier too all guys that have been discussed as trade targets.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Ennder[/b]]David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman(even with the errors last year) and Pedro Feliz are the best defensive 3B in baseball right now and it isn't really close.

 

Statistically Beltre came out 11th last year (behind Counsell to give you an idea just how slick he was with the glove last year!). The statistics aren't as reliable as offensive though and he was right in the realm of all the tier 2 guys but those three listed above were in another league compared to the others. Crede, Rolen and Inge are all in that 2nd tier too all guys that have been discussed as trade targets.

 

I don't really know what metric you're using for these "ranks", THT's RZR has him ranked below Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Troy Glaus and Brandon Inge . . .

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=5&Submit=Submit

 

but then again Wright is also ranked below 3 of those guys. None of these metrics are even close at this point to stability (look at 2006's ratings and compare) to be even remotly reliable. They keep telling me every year that Yuni Bettancourt is a below average shortstop too.

 

Beltre is well above average with the glove. If you click on the OOZ (range factor basically), you will see that he gets to many a ball outside the average. Only Wright and Zimmerman are better.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for the response, EDR. I think as far as injuries go, you could just as easily say the Halos are a Vlad knee-tweak away from being an average or below-average offense, or a Lackey arm injury away from a downgrade in the rotation. I can agree that LAA is the superior team, but I just don't know how 'bad' the M's are.

 

ZiPS has Adam Jones north of an .800 OPS next year, Clement at a .766 (which is conservative imho), Sexson at .764 (too conservative for my tastes), but you've hit the nail on the head in terms of pitching. Without Felix, that's a rough rotation. But they'll likely see better from Sexson, an improvement in the OF in terms of Jones, arguably the best C situation in MLB if they keep Johjima with Clement, Beltre & Guillen are solid... I think they're north of 85 wins again, and who knows if the bad luck the M's got last year might find LAA in 2008?

 

I do, however think that Ryan Feierabend is a good bet to be much better than ZiPS has him projected. If they can figure out one more guy, and Feierabend pitches up to what I think he can, they're one more league-avg. SP away from a solid rotation (as they already have 2 lge-avg. guys in Batista & Washburn).

 

Perhaps Robert Rohrbaugh? He's had a Hart-ish progression through the minors, and will probably compete for a 25-man spot this year (unless there's some injury I don't know about). Jeff Weaver could always put together a solid 2008... he seems to be an all-or-nothing guy (& last year was basically a 'nothing' year); Andrew Baldwin might still be a year away, but could step in for 2008.

 

I just am not convinced that the M's are significantly behind the Halos, and I think Seattle's SP depth is better than one might think at first glance. I'm looking forward to following them next year.

[Ennder]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/33941/

 

That is the methodology of the ranks i use.

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3

 

This is the major data I use though i check some others too. Beltre didnt' come out that great in this one but was better than some of those mid guys in others so putting it all in perspective I called him tier 2 as in above average but not elite. I agree the defensive metrics aren't as strong as offensive so I like to think of guys as elite, above average, around average, poor and Ryan Braun.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Seattle's SP depth is better than one might think at first glance. I'm looking forward to following them next year.

 

I agree that Washburn isn't as bad as some people think and that Batistsa is serviceable for a 6-inning pitcher, but beyond Hernandez/Washburn/Batista/Silva . . . it's pretty much a wasteland, and that's assuming none of those four regress at all. I like Baek better than the rest because he's not afraid of contact. Everybody else just walks too many batters.

 

That they picked up Ramirez option is as baffling as anything this off-season, barring them trading Adam Jones for anybody.

 

There is no plan to improve the offense, blind hope on Hernadez' injury issues, and blind hope in Morrow, who can't change speeds or find the strike zone.

 

Clement profiles well, but that assumes they put him in the lineup somewhere, and by damned Vidro need to get his cuts. They're paying him $8 million a year through 2009.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like Baek better than the rest because he's not afraid of contact. Everybody else just walks too many batters.

 

Why not Feierabend? He had great numbers in the PCL last year at age 21. In fact, just in perusing minor-league numbers, it would appear at least one other SP could match or surpass Baek.

 

by damned Vidro need to get his cuts. They're paying him $8 million a year through 2009.

I know he's an odd player to have to DH, but Vidro actually gave them a .381 OBP for 625 PA. If we get a .350 OBP from Kendall this year, I'd be giddy. .381 from a niche player (as in, Kendall limited to C & Vidro mostly to DH) is pretty solid. $8 mil. is certainly too much for that, but they're stuck - so at least they get something.

 

Are you living up in Sea? Iirc you know the M's fairly well. I really think I'm going to like following them this year.

 

Clement profiles well, but that assumes they put him in the lineup somewhere.

Even if they have the LAD 'vet' complex, that'd probably be good for Clement to get some time to watch & time to play. It's one reason I think they can be solid again to have so much quality at C. Honestly, unless Sexson's dropoff last year is long-term, I don't see how they'll struggle. An injury to Hernandez would be devastating, but you could say the same for the Cubs with Zambrano.