SEA signs Carlos Silva (4 yr/48M)

[ELCABALLO45]

Steve Phillips is reporting

[giffted1]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071219&content_id=2333777&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea&partnered=rss_sea

[ELCABALLO45]

Thanks giffted, and AND THAT!

[davego]

Makes the Suppon deal look better...

[wisconsinfan47]

4/44 sounded like a terrible deal for the M's to me at first, but a quick check on baseball reference shows his numbers as quite a bit better than I remember...He had a Sheets-like kk/b ratio a few years ago, and is only 29.

[giffted1]

Thanks giffted, and AND THAT!

No problem.

This seems like a decent deal for the Mariners. Silva is an innings eater a lot like Suppan. Similar career numbers, but Silva has a better BB rate and Soup has a better K rate.

[ELCABALLO45]

Safeco is also a BIG ballpark.

[dadofandrew]

Silva might have got $18M per if not for 2006.

[Ennder]

His stats are very close to Suppan's, better control but even lower K's. Seattle has a pretty good defense too which should help him some.

[homer]

Isn't his K:BB like 1 for his career?

 

EDIT: Nope, it's like 2:1. Man he just does not strike anyone out. Really odd. 200IP and 89 Ks?

[pogokat]

his stats look more like james baldwin than ben sheets to me...

 

anyone that gives up 230 hits and only k's 90 is on the road for massive troubles...

[TooLiveBrew]

At least it's Safeco. I'm not sure why the Mariners would want to deal Beltre for SPing now, but if they're still interested, I hope we are, too.

[DrWood]

I've never been impressed by silva, but there aren't too many SP available.

[Fatter than Joey]

Nope, it's like 2:1. Man he just does not strike anyone out. Really odd. 200IP and 89 Ks?

 

Silva reminds a lot of Bob Tewksbury, who was a very solid SP and if Silva puts up numbers like his, the Mariners can get good value for this.

[brewmann04]

so who is still out there that might be looking at Bush,Vargas.cappy

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I'm not sure why the Mariners would want to deal Beltre for SPing now, but if they're still interested, I hope we are, too."

 

Seriously, TLB?

 

OK, we have a gaping hole in LF/3B right now, and plenty of rotation guys to deal. But I'm still amazed that Adrian Beltre was not named by George Mitchell.

 

He's got all the classic symptoms: Scott Boras for an agent, an unfathomable (and convenient) upsurge in all offensive categories in his 2004 contract walk year, only to fall back to his mediocre career numbers afterward, and as I recall, there were some questions about how old he was, coming to America.

 

Migod, looking at his career numbers, if you factor out that fictional 2004 season, he's a .261 hitter, who's good for 20 HR, 65 RBIs, and a .761 OPS.

 

Compare that to 2004, when he was hitting free agency and that dream payday in Seattle:

 

.334 BA (up over 90 points from the prior year), 48 HRs (more than double his 2003 totals in only 39 more at bats), 121 RBIs (up over 50% from 2003), and a 1.017 OPS that year (up over 500 points!)

 

Then, once Boras got him his contract, the Mariners had a Jeffrey Hammonds-level of buyer's remorse. In 2005, his first season in Seattle?

 

.255-19-87 with a .716 OPS

 

Who saw THAT coming? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Even if you STILL want this phony, he's making barely under $13,000,000 a year through 2009.

 

No, thanks!

[sbrylski]

Geno, who do the Mariners have to play at 3B if they trade Beltre? Bloomquest? They going to put Vidro there?

 

I don't think they're eager to trade Adrian, no matter how dissapointing or overpaid he is, unless getting a replacement back.

[danzig6767]

Beltre certainly hasn't lived up to what Seattle had hoped for, but a 13 million dollar salary is no longer crazy big money. At the time Beltre signed his contract it was huge cash, now it basically buys inning eating pitchers like Suppan or Silva. Put Beltre on the free agent market right now, he may not get 13 million per, but he'd likely at least get something fairly close to that.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's got all the classic symptoms: Scott Boras for an agent...

 

Sheesh, man. Lightning rod time. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Beltre plays top-tier defense, and take a look at his career splits at Safeco & away from home. Heck - in handy fashion, he's played 3 full seasons now as a Mariner, so the 3-yr. splits are perfectly set. He's an .800 OPS guy year after year (away from that pitchers' park), and sustains a relatively high HR/FB%, which would play incredibly well at Miller Park.

 

While I obviously agree that he's not the 45 HR guy the M's thought they were getting, but play him at MP 50% of the time, and he's a lock for 30 HR, given a full season - which he's had for the last 6 seasons running. His contract is really no worse than Rolen's, and what edge Scott may have on Adrian in OBP, Beltre makes up for in durability.

 

As a young player with the Dodgers, he drew north of 50 BBs in back-to-back years, and with a little help from Skaalen and a smaller park, I think that 50+ BB total is very realistically attainable. I try to be objective in analysis, and since moving to the Pac. NW, I got to see him play (on TV, admittedly) a bunch in the last two months of 2007. He is a fantastic player, and would be worth every penny when factoring in defense.

[ELCABALLO45]

I remember watching the Twins Mariners opening day from a couple years ago when they brought in Sexson and Beltre. Ichiro singled. Reed Got out. Beltre singled and Sexson hit a 3 run home run. All I was thinking was.. This is going to be all year like this. Wow.. I was wrong.

[RockCoCougars]

Wow, what the heck is Seattle thinking? This one tops the Linnebrink deal as the worst free agent signing of the off season. Silva is pedestrian at best.

[Gopher74]

"I'm not sure why the Mariners would want to deal Beltre for SPing now, but if they're still interested, I hope we are, too."

 

Seriously, TLB?

 

OK, we have a gaping hole in LF/3B right now, and plenty of rotation guys to deal. But I'm still amazed that Adrian Beltre was not named by George Mitchell.

 

He's got all the classic symptoms: Scott Boras for an agent, an unfathomable (and convenient) upsurge in all offensive categories in his 2004 contract walk year, only to fall back to his mediocre career numbers afterward, and as I recall, there were some questions about how old he was, coming to America.

 

Migod, looking at his career numbers, if you factor out that fictional 2004 season, he's a .261 hitter, who's good for 20 HR, 65 RBIs, and a .761 OPS.

 

Compare that to 2004, when he was hitting free agency and that dream payday in Seattle:

 

.334 BA (up over 90 points from the prior year), 48 HRs (more than double his 2003 totals in only 39 more at bats), 121 RBIs (up over 50% from 2003), and a 1.017 OPS that year (up over 500 points!)

 

Then, once Boras got him his contract, the Mariners had a Jeffrey Hammonds-level of buyer's remorse. In 2005, his first season in Seattle?

 

.255-19-87 with a .716 OPS

 

Who saw THAT coming? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Even if you STILL want this phony, he's making barely under $13,000,000 a year through 2009.

 

No, thanks!

First of all, the guy's an absolute stud with the leather. The only 3rd baggers who IMO are superior right now would be maybe Eric Chavez and Mike Lowell and I honestly don't think Lowell is. He's better than Rolen IMO at this time.

 

-Second, he's 28 years old. He's played 159, 158, 156, 156, 156, and 149 games since 2002. He's very reliable.

 

-Third, he's played in a BIG time pitchers park which have hurt his numbers badly. Even prior to Safeco he played in LA, another big time pitchers park.

 

Look at his home and away splits the last two years.

 

Numbers away from home;

07-.288/.320/.858 15 HR's 54 RBI's in 296 AB's

06-.283/.343/.805 9 HR's and 45 RBI's in 329 AB's

Numbers at home

07-.264/.319/.745 11 HR's 45 RBI's 299 AB's

06-.251/.310/.777 16 HR's 44 RBI's in 291 AB's

 

Overall

07- .268/.328/.765 26 HR's 99 RBI's

06-.276/.319/.782 25 HR's 89 RBI's

 

 

-Get him out of Safeco and we'll see an above average offensive player with a GREAT glove. Even a conservative estimate playing in Miller Park would likely be about;

.275/.330/.820 with about 25 HR's 90 RBI's.

 

-I also think that it's kind of assumed that it'd be preferred if whoever we DID acquire was a good fit in the number 2 hole, the only spot that seems to be in question as the Brewers would likely rather keep Hardy 8th where he thrived last year, and everything else is set pretty much, and despite what your initial inclination may be towards Beltre not being a good option as a number 2 hitter, he's absolutely suited to hit 2nd in the order. The biggest reason being he just absolutely murders fastballs.

 

-Put him in the 2 hole behind Rickie Weeks and ahead of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder and he is going to see a TON of fastballs. Pitchers are going to try to keep Weeks at 1st, and as such, they're going to throw fastballs. Plus with Braun and Prince following him up, they're NOT going to nibble to Beltre making him a PRIME candidate for a breakout season in Brewers Blue!!

 

-He's also been a very good hitter in the number 2 spot while he's been in Seattle and just seems to feel comfortable hitting there(based on his numbers).

(Three year splits in Seattle in the 2 hole, .291/.358/.854).

 

-Based on all that, I could easily see him having a HUGE year for the Brewers. Maybe to the tune of .285-.295/.355/.925 30-35 HR's 90-100 RBI's. I HONESTLY don't see why that's not possible, and in fact, why it's not likely that he'd put up numbers in that ballpark and in that lineup?

 

-And let's not forget, the ENTIRE POINT of trading for a guy like Beltre is because he's such a great defensive 3rd basemen as evidence by the fact that he won the Gold Glove last year over guys like Chavez, Lowell, Crede, ect..ect..

 

Plus, while it's a heavy financial burden, it's not nearly as big of a deal as Scott Rolen would be. Beltre has 2 years left on his deal that pay's him about 25 million dollars. Rolen has a third year on his contract that'll pay him about 36 million total WITH a buyout clause. So not only is he INCREDIBLY more risky with his extensive injury history, not only is his bat inferior, or at least has been the past couple years, but he's going to make more money. The risk-reward factor favors Beltre HEAVILY.

 

So let's recap why he'd be a very good idea.

 

1-Defense

2-Reliable

3-Fastball Hitter

4-Hitters Park

5-Contract

6-Age

 

 

Beltre IS the type of guy who despite being a very good baseball player is the subject of much criticism because of both the Contract he signed. which at the time was huge, and now is not so big, and because he was one of those Andrew Jones, Miguel Cabrera types in that he came up when he was incredibly young, and incredibly talented and people expected SO much from. The thing is, he's never really been in a great situation, and I think that talent is most definitely there.

Plus, we don't need Albert Pujols. Just anything good defense, and a little pop, two things he provides beautifully.

[MessiahRp]

Gopher,

 

I'm sold but what do we give up to get him? We have pitching to offer but they're going to want someone to play Third over there.

 

Rp

[GAME05]

"Get him out of Safeco and we'll see an above average offensive player...."

 

As far as hitters parks go, Miller Park ranked 16th, while Safeco ranked 19th in 2007, so it wouldn't work to assume Beltre's home splits are going to jump to any real degree in a move to Miller Park.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ah, but what you should consider is that he carries a pretty high HR/FB rate for his career, and MP plays very much toward the HR - I know it was top ten in 2007, and iirc... 6th in MLB? Even though it's neutral-ish all-around, MP lets the HRs fly.