Rickie Weeks Community Projection

[reillymcshane]

John Sickels is doing his 'community projections' again this year. Weigh in on how you think Rickie will do. He tallies all the answers and posts the average at a later date.

 

Link

 

Completely silly, but kind of fun to get an insight on how Rickie is perceived. People seem to feel that he's ready to break out and have a good year. One thing that was interesting last year was that he posted the 'community' results against Zips, Pecota, Bill James, etc. and they usually weren't that radically different.

 

PS - I posted this in the minor league area because Sickels focuses on minor league stuff. Perhaps the major league forum was more appropriate. Please move if you feel necessary.

[dadofandrew]

Projections are just math with some guessing involved, especially on young guys like Rickie.

[filthyfrog]

Projections are just math with some guessing involved

 

That's the most confusing statement I've heard in a long time. While it's true that projections are a combination of numbers and guesses, I don't understand what you're trying to say. If you're saying that they're not important, I'd argue that projecting performance is the single most important job of a Major League front office, since it's how you decide personnel. If you're saying that they're not accurate enough to be significant, I'm sure the statheads can supply plenty of evidence to the contrary.

 

In a community projection like this, it's just interesting to see how Rickie is perceived by the masses.

[Team Canada]

Projections are just math with some guessing involved, especially on young guys like Rickie.

 

When are projections/predictions *not* guessing? What's your point?

[And That]

Projections are just math with some guessing involved, especially on young guys like Rickie.

 

The point of the community projection is that, with enough data (i.e. many people's predictions for Weeks), a community projection is usually pretty accurate as to what the actual outcome will be.

[dadofandrew]

In most cases, a close projection can be achieved by looking at 3 year averages, then adding or taking away a bit based on age. In Rickie's case, or any youngster's, that doesn't give him full credit for his expected improvement.

[And That]

In Rickie's case, or any youngster's, that doesn't give him full credit for his expected improvement.

 

Which is why a community projection may well be more accurate. Hence why it is done by Sickles.

[bretsky07]

i got bored and figured out the averages so far.

 

.295/.359/.488/.847 20 HR 28 SB

 

I'll take it!

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

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i got bored and figured out the averages so far.

 

.295/.359/.488/.847 20 HR 28 SB

 

I'll take it!

---

 

That would be pretty sweet. I think it shows people feel Rickie is on the cusp of doing something special. Staying healthy will be the biggest thing.

[homer]

It's amazing how close these 'community projections' come to reality sometimes. Point Spreads are basically one big 'community projection' as are some types of futures markets. Every individual has some tiny bit of information that sways the average one way or the other and collectively it comes out pretty close. Now, I think in order to be somehwat accurate for Weeks you'd need a lot more projections than what are listed thusfar, but the premise is sound enough.

[brewerfan82]

Quote:

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.295/.359/.488/.847 20 HR 28 SB

---

 

If Weeks ends this season with those stats, the Brewers are in very good shape and I'm pretty sure he will be my favorite player. I'd expect something closer to .280/.350/.450/.800 15 HR 30 SB, which is still pretty darn good!

[deeswan]

Final projection is in:

 

Community Projection for Rickie Weeks:

 

145 games, 537 at-bats, 158 hits, .294 average, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 55 walks, 116 strikeouts, 28 steals.

 

Looks a bit optimistic to me, although I don't doubt that Weeks is capable of this if he stays healthy. But I was thinking more about a 2008 breakout than an '07.

 

 

I agree with Sickels' logic there, but am hoping for these numbers this season.

[clancyphile]

I think Weeks hit about.280, .380 OBP, 40 doubles, 10-15 triples, 15-20 homers, 40 steals, and 35-40 errors.

 

All in all, a near-breakout season.