What is Prince Fielder's worth?

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, that too. To be honest, I don't think the Brewers fan who would feel such animosity has any idea who Matt LaPorta is yet.

[logan82]

True, but it is coming for whoever follows Fielder.

[Big Reed]

I think the point should be made that the typical brewerfan poster is not the typical brewers fan. brewerfan posters are far more baseball intelligent, far more knowledgeable about the brewers' financial situation and farm system than the typical brewers fan. and can see between the lines of what the papers and media try to lie to the fans about. The brewerfan poster knows that VORP is not some space alien from a Star trek episode. the brewerfan poster realizes the brewers have a 2-3 year window for an opportunity to play in the world series and that window starts next year and we're not going to get much more competitive than we were last year. the brewers are never going to be a 110 win franchise. the typical brewers fan thinngs are going to get better and better. the brewerfan poster knows the inevitable will happen and has a good indicator of when it's going to happen. the typical brewers fan has no clue and thinks prince will be a brewer forever. the average brewer fan is a lot dumber than posters here give him and her credit for. You need to differenciate between the average brewerfan poster and the average brewers fan. Eve n the dumbest brewerfa n poster is twice as smart as the average brewer fan. first, he has and knows how t o use a computer. and secondly, he knows how to find an intelligent brewers' internet site. I think a lot of brewerfa n posters take a lot for granted about the intelligence of other people around them. people who post here are very intelligent. There is not one person here with an ACt score under 10. people who post here are not D average students. but the reality is that these people do exist. I ran into one today who after robbing a gas station of $150 worth of phone cards, stopped at the adjacent red light at the intersection as they left and were caught.

 

I have to believe the average brewer fan is going to be hit hard - real hard when prince leaves. it's going to hurt as much as when molitor left and when Kareem demanded out. Among the over 40 crowd, there is a lot of hate reflected towards kareem. A lot of it is racially oriented. And a lot of it is based on what he said about the city and people of Milwaukee. We awere just not good enough for him to stay here.

 

and that might not want to think about it right now, but he knows that decision day is coming.

[Gopher74]

I think the point should be made that the typical brewerfan poster is not the typical brewers fan. brewerfan posters are far more baseball intelligent, far more knowledgeable about the brewers' financial situation and farm system than the typical brewers fan. and can see between the lines of what the papers and media try to lie to the fans about. The brewerfan poster knows that VORP is not some space alien from a Star trek episode. the brewerfan poster realizes the brewers have a 2-3 year window for an opportunity to play in the world series and that window starts next year and we're not going to get much more competitive than we were last year. the brewers are never going to be a 110 win franchise. the typical brewers fan thinngs are going to get better and better. the brewerfan poster knows the inevitable will happen and has a good indicator of when it's going to happen. the typical brewers fan has no clue and thinks prince will be a brewer forever. the average brewer fan is a lot dumber than posters here give him and her credit for. You need to differenciate between the average brewerfan poster and the average brewers fan. Eve n the dumbest brewerfa n poster is twice as smart as the average brewer fan. first, he has and knows how t o use a computer. and secondly, he knows how to find an intelligent brewers' internet site. I think a lot of brewerfa n posters take a lot for granted about the intelligence of other people around them. people who post here are very intelligent. There is not one person here with an ACt score under 10. people who post here are not D average students. but the reality is that these people do exist. I ran into one today who after robbing a gas station of $150 worth of phone cards, stopped at the adjacent red light at the intersection as they left and were caught.

 

I have to believe the average brewer fan is going to be hit hard - real hard when prince leaves. it's going to hurt as much as when molitor left and when Kareem demanded out. Among the over 40 crowd, there is a lot of hate reflected towards kareem. A lot of it is racially oriented. And a lot of it is based on what he said about the city and people of Milwaukee. We awere just not good enough for him to stay here.

 

and that might not want to think about it right now, but he knows that decision day is coming.

Really? Explain those two things please. Explain why we've got just a 2-3 year window first of all. With most of our players locked up for 3-4-5 years, and a farm system that even after being raided is still among the upper tier in baseball. Not to mention we've got one of the best in the business in Jack Z who's going to have a lot of picks to work with in the next 2 years. As many as 10-12 picks in the top 45 picks in two drafts.

 

And the average fan knows that we're not going to be much more competitive than last year? Incredibly. I love how you attribute your pessimism to all of us. We've got a totally revamped Bullpen, our core is a year older, Weeks is/will be healthy, Gallardo and Villanueva will be in the starting rotation all year, Sheets is in a contract year, Estrada's gone. All of these things won't make us more competitive next year? C'mon.

 

Don't mistake being "really smart" with being "that" fan who is negative. We're set up for a nice long run here. If we keep drafting well, hit on a couple players, there's no reason we can't be a great team for the next several years.

 

And by the way, no team's likely to ever be a 110 win team. But with our young talent, we're as likely as just about anyone outside of Boston.

 

 

[logan82]

the typical brewers fan has no clue and thinks prince will be a brewer forever.

I think the typical Brewers fan thinks that Fielder will leave next year because we can't pay him enough money. I do agree that most fans don't think much beyond next year though. The level of this site dips dramatically in the summer and I am considering not coming around next summer.

[Big Reed]

Golpher: every team improves. we came close this year simply because the Cubs didn't have their act together in the first half and the Cardinals' pitching staff was sent to the Mayo Clinic. You can't expect the brewers to outspend the Cubs. they will be better and will continue to spend more money. the cards will also be better simply with a healthy Mulder and Carpenter. That's zero added payroll for adding two quality starters. While the brewers have prospects, so does every other major league team. Every major league team no matter how low they are rated has at least two players in their farm system that will become starters in the next 5 years. Who on the brewers' AAA team is ready to duplicate what Braun or Gallardo did last year? Nobody! How about our AA team? nobody! They have talent, yes, but will they be able to contribute? There are no superstars on the brewers' AAA team. The brewers are going to get a lot of draft picks, but they are not top 10 draft picks. Look at where Braun, Jeffress, Fielder, and Weeks were drafted. They were not drafted in the lower half of the first round. Don't forget jack Z also was the main man behind drafting Mike Jones and Rogers. Not all high draft choices become immediate impact players. The brewers are no stranger to draft clunkers or arm injuries.

 

in the history of baseball, teams traditionally have a 2-4 year window when all their players are healthy and at their prime. I see that as 2008-2010 for the brewers. the brewers' payroll is not going to increase much more than $80 million. MR A can't afford to keep increasing the payroll. he's going to spend some extra money if he sees a play-off possibility, but he can't afford to keep spending this much for ever. In a few years, he's going to have to cut back to $65-70 million in order to make ends meet. All owners have periods where they spend more than their budget and then cut back. Mr A will not be an exception. That's why it's called a window of opportunity. That window is usually small unless you are the Yankees or red Sox.

 

You make a misnomer that the majority of our core will be tied up for another 3-5 years. Sheets is our ace. I'd hate to see him leave after next year. Our pitching staff without him is just not quite as imposing. Gagne is only signed for a year. Who replaces him? Turnbow? traditionally, a smart GM trades a player before he becomes a free agent. So our core players who want money will be traded a year earlier than you think. I think you saw this year that melvin doesn't have to offer arby if he doesn't want to, and he will allow arby elligible guys to leave and nontender others he could keep. So some of our young players might not be as tied to our organization as you might think. When Prince goes to arby, he's still going to come home with a $15+ million salary which will mean some other players who we all like will be traded for prospects. Without Prince, the brewers have no chance at a world series. The core of players that you hope the brewers will keep together for another 4-5 years is most likely to be kept together for another 3 maximum.

 

I don't like being labeled as that fan who is always negative. I would rather prefer being labeled as the guy who spoke the truth. it's too bad melvin never talks about the long term reality of what the brewers will be like 3 years from now. Even "and that" admitted he didn't want to talk about that. The truth is players get injured. Not all players continue to improve on their past performance. Hall didn't. Cappy didn't. Sheets didn't. Suppan didn't. The brewers only have so much they can afford to spend. if they spend it on Prince, hart and braun, then there's not going to be much left for Weeks, hardy and the pitching staff. if the brewers' core keeps producing like they did this year, because of the foolish free agent spending by other Gms this year, hart, hardy, braun, gallardo, and prince will all ask for and receive arbitration salaries over $10 million. Boras is no dummy and he always wins arby wars. . the truth is you can't expect to always have another minor leager come up and produce like braun did this year. laporta could easily become the second coming of brad nelson.

 

I hate being the guy who tells you the truth all the time and sounds so negative. I hate being the one to tell the truth about Santa Claus. The main reason for the season Ain't Santa! I hate having to follow the guy who always paints a rosy picture about the future and promises to lower your taxes and increase government funding at the same time and build a new arena for the Bucks with zero public funding or taxes. . I hate coming across as Al Gore. but somebody has to!

[Gopher74]

Golpher: every team improves. we came close this year simply because the Cubs didn't have their act together in the first half and the Cardinals' pitching staff was sent to the Mayo Clinic. You can't expect the brewers to outspend the Cubs. they will be better and will continue to spend more money. the cards will also be better simply with a healthy Mulder and Carpenter. That's zero added payroll for adding two quality starters. While the brewers have prospects, so does every other major league team. Every major league team no matter how low they are rated has at least two players in their farm system that will become starters in the next 5 years. Who on the brewers' AAA team is ready to duplicate what Braun or Gallardo did last year? Nobody! How about our AA team? nobody! They have talent, yes, but will they be able to contribute? There are no superstars on the brewers' AAA team. The brewers are going to get a lot of draft picks, but they are not top 10 draft picks. Look at where Braun, Jeffress, Fielder, and Weeks were drafted. They were not drafted in the lower half of the first round. Don't forget jack Z also was the main man behind drafting Mike Jones and Rogers. Not all high draft choices become immediate impact players. The brewers are no stranger to draft clunkers or arm injuries.

 

in the history of baseball, teams traditionally have a 2-4 year window when all their players are healthy and at their prime. I see that as 2008-2010 for the brewers. the brewers' payroll is not going to increase much more than $80 million. MR A can't afford to keep increasing the payroll. he's going to spend some extra money if he sees a play-off possibility, but he can't afford to keep spending this much for ever. In a few years, he's going to have to cut back to $65-70 million in order to make ends meet. All owners have periods where they spend more than their budget and then cut back. Mr A will not be an exception. That's why it's called a window of opportunity. That window is usually small unless you are the Yankees or red Sox.

 

You make a misnomer that the majority of our core will be tied up for another 3-5 years. Sheets is our ace. I'd hate to see him leave after next year. Our pitching staff without him is just not quite as imposing. Gagne is only signed for a year. Who replaces him? Turnbow? traditionally, a smart GM trades a player before he becomes a free agent. So our core players who want money will be traded a year earlier than you think. I think you saw this year that melvin doesn't have to offer arby if he doesn't want to, and he will allow arby elligible guys to leave and nontender others he could keep. So some of our young players might not be as tied to our organization as you might think. When Prince goes to arby, he's still going to come home with a $15+ million salary which will mean some other players who we all like will be traded for prospects. Without Prince, the brewers have no chance at a world series. The core of players that you hope the brewers will keep together for another 4-5 years is most likely to be kept together for another 3 maximum.

 

I don't like being labeled as that fan who is always negative. I would rather prefer being labeled as the guy who spoke the truth. it's too bad melvin never talks about the long term reality of what the brewers will be like 3 years from now. Even "and that" admitted he didn't want to talk about that. The truth is players get injured. Not all players continue to improve on their past performance. Hall didn't. Cappy didn't. Sheets didn't. Suppan didn't. The brewers only have so much they can afford to spend. if they spend it on Prince, hart and braun, then there's not going to be much left for Weeks, hardy and the pitching staff. if the brewers' core keeps producing like they did this year, because of the foolish free agent spending by other Gms this year, hart, hardy, braun, gallardo, and prince will all ask for and receive arbitration salaries over $10 million. Boras is no dummy and he always wins arby wars. . the truth is you can't expect to always have another minor leager come up and produce like braun did this year. laporta could easily become the second coming of brad nelson.

 

I hate being the guy who tells you the truth all the time and sounds so negative. I hate being the one to tell the truth about Santa Claus. The main reason for the season Ain't Santa! I hate having to follow the guy who always paints a rosy picture about the future and promises to lower your taxes and increase government funding at the same time and build a new arena for the Bucks with zero public funding or taxes. . I hate coming across as Al Gore. but somebody has to!

Wow. You have to love the guy who's the "realist". As if someone states their opinion on the future and DOESN'T think they're a "realist".

 

Anyway, thank you EVER so much for being the guy who "tells me the truth" as I'm new to this baseball thing. Honestly, that's really appreciated.

 

I guess I'll just throw my hands up as we're clearly not going to get any better next year, Mulder and Carp are clearly going to bounce back to their ace status and because we don't have another Braun or Gallardo in AAA, that we're not going to be any better.

 

I'll enjoy bookmarking this post for next year.

 

And by the way, when I say core, I think most realize I'm talking about Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Gallardo, Prince, Braun, Villanueva....

 

I also appreciate your telling me the future with the Brewers payroll in two-three years(Despite the fact the Brewers are making money right now and not losing it) and how we're going to have all these players setting arbitration records.

 

And finally, why WOULD Melvin talk about the Brewers 3-4 years down the road? Why wouldn't he talk about them right now? Isn't that a little more relevent to the moves he's making right now? We could have a Francisco Liriano come out of nowhere, and LaPorta could be the next Braun, or as you said, LaPorta could be Brad Nelson(nope, not negative at all). The point is, there are too many variables in predicting our state four years from now.

 

And by the way, I have to say I loved the part about every farm system in baseball having those types of prospects. No they do not. There are several, several farm systems right now that may not produce a single above average starter in the near future.

 

Anyway, there's just so much to argue about in this post. The notion that every team improves, the comment about how Melvin's picked players who haven't panned out(obviously...but Jack Z's been exceptional despite a couple busts of which it's silly to include Rogers). I think I'll just resign myself to the fact that you and I don't agree rather than trying to take the incredibly condescending stance that I need to "teach" you anything.

[And That]

Gopher74, please do not quote an entire post when replying to it. Click here for more information on that.

[logan82]

The Brewers are most likley to stay around $75M tops and more likley around the $60-$70M that Reed stated until their TV contract gets renegotiated. It has been stated that we went over budget the past couple years so $60-$70M seems about right.

[Gopher74]

Gopher74, please do not quote an entire post when replying to it. Click here for more information on that.

My mistake. I'll work on that in the future.

 

As for the Brewers budget, I don't know why you think they've gone over their budget's. They were at about 70 million last year, and they still made money. I'm not sure how much, but they made money.

It'd be nice though if they could get that TV deal re-done sometime soon. When it is up again by the way? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's the worst deal in the big leagues, correct?

 

Anyway, my points not that we're going to be spending 150 million...although I think 85-90 is a lot more realistic in the near future(4 years or so) than some may think, but we're always going to be dealing with the salary structure in baseball. But you absolutely can fight that by scouting. Look at the Twins. How long have they been a good team. AS long as you're close every year, you have a chance. Then it comes down to health, luck and career years from someone here or there.

 

Baseball's definitely mucked up, but that doesn't mean that we can't continue to be a contender.

[ILuvDaBush]

The Brewers actually remind me a bit of the Cleveland Indians of the late 90's, when they just moved into the Jake. They have a bunch of young players that should blossom, and it's a market that has been stared of competitive baseball for awhile. We even have an ill-cast 1B, former catcher, who is soon to be setting up camp in left...HELLO RICHIE! More to the point, we take for granted that St. Louis, Houston, Cincinatti, and, yes, even the Pirates play in our division. Those teams could easily surprise next year and Braun could regress along with Prince going in too hard at home and dislocating a shoulder. The reason there is a limited window is because even when there is said window, it could very easily shut just as quickly as it came. A lot of what the Brewers did this year was luck and the lack thereof. And I still wonder how much Coco was paid to serve the meatball to A-Ram. Why, Coco, WHY!

[Big Reed]

I said the brewers went way over budget last year because both melvin and Mr A said publicaly they went over budget. it's in the Mil Journal several times. melvin said his budget last year was supposed to be in the $60-65 million range at the start of last year and he was planning on dumping some of that payroll before the season started. That's why most people expected melvin to trade jenkins at the start of last year. he never did. Those are the type of lies that make me sceptical about Melvin telling the truth about anything brewers oriented. Am i supposed to believe melvin when he says he's looking for a left fielder and thirdbaseman, when he so blatantly lies about the Brewers' financial situation? obviously, the brewers either dipped into their profits from previous years, or melvin borrowed money against future anticipated revenues to pay last year's and this year's anticipated payrolls.

 

yes, major league baseball did make a lot of money last year. And major league baseball will probably mke a lot of money in the next 5 years. but when the GM of the Brewers goes public and says we can only afford to spend $60-65 million on payroll, and then goes out and spends close to $75-80 million, one has to believe he'll have to cut back to the $60-65 million level within the next 3 years.

 

looking back at prince, when/if he goes to arbitration, with Boras as his agent, he'll be asking for $20+ million. And the bigger question is, will the brewers pay that amount? or will they trade him a year earlier than planned? I have to believe Melvin is going to hold onto Prince as long as he can. Trading prince will not be a very popular option. But keeping Prince will mean trading half of our core players to cut back salary demands. And if guys like hardy, hart, Weeks , Gallardo, and the rest of the core are not worth $10 million a year, then we won't have to worry about the Brewers being competitive. because right now, even the most mediocre players with 5 years under their belt are getting $10 million contracts.

[fondybrewfan]

Are you actually sure he telling the truth about the budget? Mark A and Doug could have completely made up that they went over budge to? What is really reality anymore? Doug Melvin & Mark Attanasio should have starred in A Beautiful Mind. I really don't believe a damned thing they say until something actually happens. Who knows what their budget actually was or is this year?

[homer]

Melvin has always had the support of Mark A to go over budget if he thought it would help the team win the pennant. They never "lied" about anything.

[logan82]

looking back at prince, when/if he goes to arbitration, with Boras as his agent, he'll be asking for $20+ million. And the bigger question is, will the brewers pay that amount? or will they trade him a year earlier than planned? I have to believe Melvin is going to hold onto Prince as long as he can. Trading prince will not be a very popular option. But keeping Prince will mean trading half of our core players to cut back salary demands. And if guys like hardy, hart, Weeks , Gallardo, and the rest of the core are not worth $10 million a year, then we won't have to worry about the Brewers being competitive. because right now, even the most mediocre players with 5 years under their belt are getting $10 million contracts.

Ahh, back to my argument for trading Prince. Keeping him tears apart the rest of the team while trading him we lose one very good player.

Whenever the team goes over budget it comes out of Mark A.'s pocket.

[fondybrewfan]

looking back at prince, when/if he goes to arbitration, with Boras as his agent, he'll be asking for $20+ million. And the bigger question is, will the brewers pay that amount? or will they trade him a year earlier than planned? I have to believe Melvin is going to hold onto Prince as long as he can. Trading prince will not be a very popular option. But keeping Prince will mean trading half of our core players to cut back salary demands. And if guys like hardy, hart, Weeks , Gallardo, and the rest of the core are not worth $10 million a year, then we won't have to worry about the Brewers being competitive. because right now, even the most mediocre players with 5 years under their belt are getting $10 million contracts.

Ahh, back to my argument for trading Prince. Keeping him tears apart the rest of the team while trading him we lose one very good player.

Whenever the team goes over budget it comes out of Mark A.'s pocket.

Not necessarily. Businesses all the time go over budgets, not just in sports, and very rarily do the owners of these businesses ever fork over any money. Teams and businesses usually have built in reserves in case something up. Of course this assumes that revenue stays at budget as well. If revenue exceeds what they budgeted for the could afford to go over budget.

 

I think a common misconception is that owners of baseball teams use a lot of their own money to expand payroll. I cant say for sure but I think that is highly unlikely. They are businessman you know they aren't just going to put $10 million in cash to sign some guy. If I were that wealthy I sure as hell wouldn't throw money around like that. Mark A might give the OK to go over budget but that will probably just cut into the profits, Mark A will never fork over a dime. Budgets are rarely made to come out at break even. Especially in the case of MLB, where money is very abundant these days.

[Big Reed]

I recall back in 1982 and in 1983. The brewers used some of their revenue from 1983 ticket sales to pay for some of their expenses in 1982. You can find it in the archives somewhere. it was interesting to note they went to the world series but had more expenses than revenue that year. revenues from world series and play-offs were not as much back then.

 

as for this year and next year, and last year's payroll, i have to believe mr A and Melvin did indeed go over budget. however , they probably dipped into the profits generated last year or the anticipated profits of next year, or the team's cash reserves. it's hard to say where they got the money from. However, i have to believe that source was finite, and melvin can't go over budget too many years in a row; otherwise the other fellow owners might be a tad upset with him.

 

as for melvin going public and saying he went overbudget, I very seldom believe a word out of his mouth anymore. the lies and misdirections and smokescreens are starting to pile up.

 

so with Prince, I doubt it will be a matter of not being able to afford to keep him. the money will be there. it will be a matter of if prince wants to stay and sign a long term deal or move to NYC and the big lights. Boras is not going to allow prince to sign for less than market value. or it will be melvin trading him a year early?

[logan82]

Iso with Prince, I doubt it will be a matter of not being able to afford to keep him. the money will be there. it will be a matter of if prince wants to stay and sign a long term deal or move to NYC and the big lights. Boras is not going to allow prince to sign for less than market value. or it will be melvin trading him a year early?

I think it will come down to wether they want to keep Prince or 2-3 of the other guys. Who knows, by that time we might have some guys who can slide in and take the other guy's places. I doubt we will have a guy of Fielder's caliber.