Most Likely to Progress/Regress

[logan82]

Fielder for example had a BABIP of .283 last year. Would you call his at bats weak hits?

[DrWood]

Fielder for example had a BABIP of .283 last year. Would you call his at bats weak hits?

 

are HR not "balls in play"? if not, I don't know how your average could be lower than BABIP. It should be considerably higher, if you strike out. at all.

[Ennder]

HR's are not balls in play. There has been more work on assigning values on types of balls hit etc that will probably end up being more predictive of future success than BABIP, but for now it is the only easy to find stat like that and it most certainly is more predictive than just AVG alone is.

[logan82]

I believe the league average for BABIP is around .300. Hitters that have a BABIP higher than that are usually considered to be lucky. Lower unlucky. Ryan Howard is one person who, for now, seems to be able to maintain a higher or luckier BABIP than most(.354/.356/.328 last 3 years). Even really good hitters like A-Rod(.347/.326/.309) and Pujols(.316/.292/.317) don't consistently have a BABIP as high as the .361 Braun had last year.

 

BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

 

I don't think anybody is saying that Braun is going to have a bad year, just that we should expect something more along the lines of .290 BA, .350 OBP and 35 HRs not the .326 BA, .370 OBP he put up last year.

[Ennder]

Hafner clearly showed he had the skills to keep a high BABIP, he is one case that is always thrown around... .350, .344, .323 of course until last year when it went down to a normal level (.294) and his AVG dropped 47 points. There is definitely more to it than just everyone ends up .300.

 

C's almost always have low BABIP, probably because they are so poor at running. Fast guys generally can break .300 on a regular basis. Suzuki almost always breaks .330 but then Reyes doesn't so it isn't a sure thing.

 

I think the best way to look at it is look at 3-4 years of data and regress towards that number. Hardy for example has .262, .257, .279 so I'd assume he falls short of .300 this season but I'd error towards the .279 since his rookie year he hit the ball so weakly and the 2nd year is a small sample.

 

The important thing is that BABIP shows a stronger correlation year to year than AVG does, so when you see a big swing in AVG you can use BABIP to help decide if it was luck or a change in skills.

[twobrewers]

Thanks for all of the BABIP information.

 

I didn't realize that Braun's .361 was soo high. As I mentioned in my original post, given how hard he hits the ball it seems that he will be able to maintain an above average BABIP. But if .300 is average, then maintaining a .361 certainly seems unlikely.

 

Worth noting, Bill James has Braun's BABIP projected at .341. He also has Braun with an OPS of 1.042 - which is higher than Prince's .978. He also has Braun with 46 HR compared to Prince's 44.

[Ennder]

Bill James has Braun as most likely better than ARod. I think he is a tiny bit too high on him myself, though I hope he is right!

[TooLiveBrew]

Worth noting, Bill James has Braun's BABIP projected at .341. He also has Braun with an OPS of 1.042 - which is higher than Prince's .978. He also has Braun with 46 HR compared to Prince's 44.

 

Yea, when I saw that James projection it really made me re-think how much stock I really put in him. He's quite good, but the Braun projection is bordering on irresponsible. And isn't it James that doesn't project pitching because he doesn't think you can? And then models like PECOTA do a reasonably good job.

[logan82]

There is definitely more to it than just everyone ends up .300.

 

C's almost always have low BABIP, probably because they are so poor at running. Fast guys generally can break .300 on a regular basis. Suzuki almost always breaks .330 but then Reyes doesn't so it isn't a sure thing.

 

I think the best way to look at it is look at 3-4 years of data and regress towards that number. Hardy for example has .262, .257, .279 so I'd assume he falls short of .300 this season but I'd error towards the .279 since his rookie year he hit the ball so weakly and the 2nd year is a small sample.

 

The important thing is that BABIP shows a stronger correlation year to year than AVG does, so when you see a big swing in AVG you can use BABIP to help decide if it was luck or a change in skills.

That is all good stuff to know. I just threw .300 out there because that is what I understood to be around the league average and a good way to put Braun's .361 into some sort of perspective. I by no means know everything about BABIP, but I do know that .361 is really high.

 

Also overlooked in all the BABIP talk is the fact he had tremendous splits against LH pitching along with almost half his HRs. SOme of his regression would, I believe, come from that.

[TooLiveBrew]

That is all good stuff to know. I just threw .300 out there because that is what I understood to be around the league average and a good way to put Braun's .361 into some sort of perspective. I by no means know everything about BABIP, but I do know that .361 is really high.

 

I don't know a whole lot about BABIP either, but combining your comparative notion with Ennder's point on Hardy... it looks like the reason .300 is appx. league-average is that some guys can 'carry' a .325 number, while others struggle to get north of .275. As with most stat-work, finding a recent but large sample, and working out some sort of median/average will tell you most about Player X.

 

Braun may well sustain a BABIP over .300, just since he's got so much pop, but if .360 is his norm, you're talking ridiculousness. I really am thinking .295/.340/.550/.890 for 2008 - anything over that is groovy. However, I know one thing Braun mentioned early on after being called up was that he thought his approach could be much better (29/112 BB/K from 2007). Perhaps some more time with Skaalen and the rest of the staff can help there.

 

I'm guessing 40+ BBs for '08, so that's what I think can impact his season the most. If he is able to return his BB/K rate to what it was during his final two seasons at Miami (nearly 1/1), that's scary good. Like, MVP in your first full season good. If we see 50+ BBs & < 100 Ks, I think that his production will far outshine a .890 OPS. If, by some miracle, Ryan cranks it back to that rate at Miami, say 70 BBs/90 Ks, let MVP talk commence given a full season of play - in LF.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'll throw a name out there that has a high volatility factor... Eric Gagne. What if he comes out and has a better year than Coco? Say....2.40/52SV/1.05WHIP? Or 4.75/18SV/1.45WHIP? I'm hoping for the former....REALLY hoping! We have now employed the only two closers to have won the Cyclone. Then again, there is still another Cyclone Award winner out there if we are so enamored with said award. But honestly, I think our season hinges on Gagne more than Sheets this year.

[Ennder]

Gagne's true level was 3.80ish ERA last season, he didn't have the K's to post a better ERA. He was lucky with Texas and unlucky with Boston pretty much. Tango and those guys spent a lot of time looking at his pitch by pitch data and couldnt' find anything different between Texas and Boston other than more balls falling in for hits.

[ILuvDaBush]

Well what are the chances we could see Corey Hart put up a 35/35 season? I remember seeing Corey hit bloopers in front of right fielders, and then take an extra base as they lackadaisically fielded the ball. And, as mentioned earlier, a year without the wrist injury (ask Rickie) should go a long way, though I know he only wore the wrist guard to look tough for the ladies.

[pogokat]

over 600 ab's, i think we will see a 30/30 season from corey hart next year...