Most Likely to Progress/Regress

[ILuvDaBush]

Progress...err bounceback.

I would probably say Capuano, since I think he would thrive if he were given every fifth day for the Brewz this spring, but it looks like he's the most likely to be traded, thus, my guess would be Dave Bush. His peripherals always paint the picture of a strong complement to an ace (K/BB, IP, QS...before imploding).

 

Hitting, I would have to say Bill Hall is going to have a huge monster year. I don't care about the HR's as long as he continues to stroke XBH.

 

As for the regression part, I think the pitcher most likely to regress is, unfortunately, Carlos Villanueva. I love the changeup, but I just think he is going to put up a line similar to CV the Elder. And, as for the hitter I think is going to regress....Say it with me. RYAN BRAUN! He has nowhere to go but down. And honestly, if he gets his defense under control, I wouldn't mind a drop in OPS of 100 points.

[TerraceReserved]

As for the regression part, I think the pitcher most likely to regress is, unfortunately, Carlos Villanueva. I love the changeup, but I just think he is going to put up a line similar to CV the Elder.

 

 

Any reason why? Villy has had better K and HR rates, and even slightly better BB rate. CV is younger too and has a good chance at improving those numbers, while Vargas has pretty much established himself as a below average starter.

[mothershipconnection]

I'd also say Cappy is the most likely to make a comeback, I just don't see him being that awful again. Just for fun I'll make Mota my second pick.

 

Riske is my first pick for regression, followed by Hardy, who may play a lot more like his acceptable .728 2nd half OPS than his very solid .833 1st half OPS.

[ILuvDaBush]

Vargas' line last year was not a BAD line. And like I said, I am enamored with that killer change. But there were times when he just wasn't spotting the pitch, and when he had to throw the heat, he got hit. I hope he is able to continue his craftiness, but I could just as easily see him get lit up. What scares me is how so many Brewer fans have him ticketed for a spot in our crowded rotation. He pitched well last year, especially out of the 'pen, but Sheets/Yo/Soup are the only three in my view who should be given spots. But my affinity for Dave Bush could also lead me to believe he should be given a spot, along with Capuano, if only to up his trade value.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about Prince and Hart regressing? Is there any general fear that those two could have a bit of a soph (err...Junior) slump?

[logan82]

I would say that Prince hits fewer HR, but improves slightly in average. I actually think Hart will get better.

[TerraceReserved]

ditto what logan said, but I'll add I think Prince will have 100+ walks and .410-.420 ish OBP, which will offset the slight decrease in power.

[ILuvDaBush]

I would agree that Prince will have the opportunity to take 100+ walks, let's just hope he is patient enough to understand the situation. But I remember when he was at Huntsville that the league managers voted Prince as having the best strike zone discipline so I would think he should be fine. As for Hart, I actually am expecting a 30/30 campaign, so... But I can't shake the idea that Braun is going to settle in as a .280-.290/.340/.510, which, a year ago, would have been an "optimistic" projection for this year.

[Ennder]

I think every single pitcher in the rotation should be better this year than last except Villanueva. The defense and bullpen will improve and it will show.

 

I agree that Riske is likely to regress, Mota and Torres will get better according to ERA at least, since they pitched better than their ERA suggests last season.

 

I think Hardy's final stats are about what to expect from him, he'll lose a few HR's but gain some OBP probably.

 

Hitting I think Kendall will be closer to his Cub's numbers than his A's numbers, those K's and BB' were just too goofy with the A's for me to think he keeps that up. Braun will also lose some SLG but his OBP should hold steady as his AVG goes down and his BB's go up. Hall will see a bit better numbers most likely. I don't think any of the hitters are in for a hard regression, yes Fielder really is that good.

[logan82]

I think Braun's OBP will go down 10-20 points with a bigger drop in BA. I would guess a bigger drop in OBP, but like Ender said he should get a little better with his plate dicipline. I just don't think his BABIP(.361) is sustainable. Plus I see no way he hits LH next year like he did this year.

 

 

EDIT: By the way, Braun's line against LH pitching was .450/.516/.964/1.480 BA/OBP/SLG/OPS.

[TooLiveBrew]

that's a nice summation of good reasons to expect a regression from Braun.

would guess a bigger drop in OBP, but like Ender said he should get a little better with his plate dicipline.

 

The OBP will be helped, too, by the fact that everyone now realizes that leaving one over the plate to Ryan isn't very good.

[lukevan]

I like Weeks for something along these lines: .270/.395/.490/.885 with 25 HR and 35 SB in 2008.

[Tbadder]

Regress:

Braun (but still awfully, awfully good)

Hardy (say bye-bye to all that power)

Gallardo (lack of outstanding stuff hurts him as league begins to catch up a bit, but still very solid)

Counsell (even farther?)

Capuano (should be outta baseball in a year or two)

Vargas (all those baserunners catch up to him)

 

Progress:

Weeks (25Hrs, OBP machine, Chase who?)

Fielder (power and OBP on the rise)

Hall (the man's got pride, 50 doubles? keeps getting better in the outfield)

Sheets (okay I lied but I'm hoping against hope)

Bush (just keeps improving incremenatlly--I'd like to see the Crew hold on to him long term; imagine Suppan as a #5 starter)

Torres (spreading the innings around in the pen helps him a lot)

Turnbow (no back to back games, comes in with no one on, his numbers will just be sick, league hits .135 against him, then he walks after the season and fans complain but get what they deserve for making him a whipping boy)

 

Steady Eddie:

CV the younger (finally where he belongs, wins 14 games, solid)

Hart (his ceiling is good enough)

Suppan (of course)

Sheets (injured again, non-arm/shoulder injury, people keep defending him)

Kendall (just bad, but the clubhouse becomes even more chummy)

Mota (just bad, but the clubhouse becomes more sum-pin, sum-pin)

Riske (another solid acquisition, three 2 inning pitchers and Vargas keep everyone fresh, it's Melvin's anti-yost strategy and it works)

Gagne (very, very good alternating with ordinary--overall a plus for the Crew)

[Ennder]

Capuano (should be outta baseball in a year or two)

 

From team ace to out of baseball in one season, how the mighty have fallen on the swings of BABIP and LOB%!

[TooLiveBrew]

(say bye-bye to all that power)

 

If JJ drops off by any more than 5 HR or so, I'd be shocked. Bye bye to all his power? That old regression after age 25, huh?

[twobrewers]

I just don't think his BABIP(.361) is sustainable.

I know little about sabermetrics. But I understand this notion, that a .361 BABIP indicated a good portion of their batting average was "luck" driven. (Meaning that a lot of his balls in play - just found grass and went for a hit)

 

However, wouldn't a player of Braun's ability be expected to have a higher BABIP that most players? My point is this - if you hit the ball really really hard, you increase the chances of it being a base hit, becuase the ball is harder to field. A hard shot between SS and 3B is likely to go for a hit. A soft grounder between SS and 3B is likely an out.

 

My thinking is then...

That Braun could sustain a BABIP of .361. Whereas a weak hitter like Gwynn, you would assume a .361 BABIP is unlikely to be sustained - as much of that would be "luck" driven.

 

Am I wrong in my thinking?

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Capuano had better stuff, I'd agree with the notion that he'd be most likely to bounce back. Unless his command improves, I just don't see him getting back to all-star caliber. he gets himself in way too many jams by trying to be too fine in the strike zone. last year he pitched like a left-handed Stever Trachsel, which is never good.

 

If he goes back to attacking the zone with his cutter and stops relying on his changeup in the dirt to strike everyone out (or end up walking them), I'm sure he'll revert back to being a solid #3 starter. Otherwise, he's glendon rusch.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I just don't think his BABIP(.361) is sustainable.

I know little about sabermetrics. But I understand this notion, that a .361 BABIP indicated a good portion of their batting average was "luck" driven. (Meaning that a lot of his balls in play - just found grass and went for a hit)

 

However, wouldn't a player of Braun's ability be expected to have a higher BABIP that most players? My point is this - if you hit the ball really really hard, you increase the chances of it being a base hit, becuase the ball is harder to field. A hard shot between SS and 3B is likely to go for a hit. A soft grounder between SS and 3B is likely an out.

 

My thinking is then...

That Braun could sustain a BABIP of .361. Whereas a weak hitter like Gwynn, you would assume a .361 BABIP is unlikely to be sustained - as much of that would be "luck" driven.

 

Am I wrong in my thinking?

watch out - statheads don't have a factor in their BABIP equation that accounts for % of balls hit well vs % of weak grounders and sally league pop ups. I totally agree with you, and this has always been my main beef with using these kinds of stats to judge both hitters and pitchers.

 

BABIP isn't very useful, because it eliminates a hitter's ability of pitch selection, and a pitcher's ability of pitch location/command. A hitter will naturally have a higher BABIP if he consistently works counts and identifies quality pitches to put in play. A pitcher will naturally have a lower BABIP against if he consistently hits his spots, keeps hitters guessing, and/or has quality stuff. Chalking up any "outliers" in BABIP to luck doesn't make sense. It's a stat that people use to support their argument until it shows something else, then it's just bad luck...if luck were totally eliminated from the discussion of BABIP, I might be more inclined to view the stat as useful.

[joepepsi]

Improvement in Pitching:

Capuano's BABIP was .337. His career number is .303. Isn't .337 abnormally high? His walk rate was up slightly from '06, but not ridiculous. While never really outstanding last year, his ERA is basically due to 6 bad starts out of 25. With better defense and a little better luck he should easily shave a run or more off that ERA in '08.

 

Bush's BABIP was .323, against a career average of .295. His perpherals, like Capuano's, didn't vary far from previous years. He had 3 horrendous starts,

4/28: 5.1 ip; 7ER

5/25: 5 ip; 7ER

9/07: 1 ip; 8ER

 

Now I realize if you take the bad outings away from any pitcher's season you can make them look great. Still, just for fun, take away these three outings and Bush's line for the season is 175 ip, 12-7, 4.25 ERA. Like Capuano, he should return closer to his 2006 success, if not even better.

 

Regressing Pitcher:

I like Villanueva a lot, but I too am worried he won't be able to sustain success.

 

Regressing Hitter:

Unless Ryan Braun is Albert Pujols there's no way he can repeat last year's incredible season. I'm worried Hardy's .323 oba is about where his career norm will be. I doubt he'll have 57 XBH next year, unless he can improve his plate discipline.

 

Improving Hitters: Any loss of numbers from Braun and Fielder will be negated by Weeks and Hart. I think Rickie is going to break out big time; a season like Jimmy Rollins' 2007, but with an oba about 50 points higher. Give Corey Hart another 100 plate appearances and magical things will happen.

[JohnBriggs12]

I look for a huge bounce back year from Hall. I think he'll hit 30 HR and drive in 100 runs.

 

As for regression the guy I fear most is Brian Shouse. I think he'll have trouble coming anywhere near his 2007 season. I'd be looking to upgrade that spot sooner rather than later.

[monty57]

Weeks - I don't think he's ever played fully healthy. If he's healthy, I expect a big year out of him. A .400 OBP with 20+ HR is not out of the question.

 

Gross/Dillon - hopefully this will progress with a move from Melvin to bring in a full-time starter. I like Gross & Dillon, but I fear we'd be disappointed with the results if they get too much PT.

 

Braun - There is simply no way he can continue hitting like last year. That said, I expect a great year out of him. Plus, we have him all year.

 

Fielder - Ditto Braun. He could regress from last year's numbers and still be one of the best offensive 1B in the league. It may be asking too much in the non-steroids era to ask for a season much better than what Prince gave us last year.

 

Hart - Played with a sore wrist for the first part of last season. Showed what he's capable of when healthy. Like Weeks, if he stays healthy all season (and he doesn't have any history to suggest otherwise) I see improvement for Corey. He definitely has the talent to be a 30/30 guy. Plus, he should be cemented into the #5 spot this season and not shuffled around like he was last year, which could help his numbers.

 

Hardy - I think he wore down last year by not getting a break at All Star time. I think his true numbers lie somewhere between the first half and second half of 2007, so if you average the halves out, he probably ended around where he should (maybe not quite the HR total). He seems to have decent plate discipline, but I see him tilted more toward SLG than as an overly-high OBP guy. I think he'll regress from last year, but still put up very good numbers for a middle infielder. If he remembers that he's a baseball player and not a movie star, he'll do better. It seems his problems started when he realized he got a lot of national recognition from hitting HRs. Then, when he started trying to kill the ball, be slumped. Then to correct that, he started taking every first pitch, getting behind in the count most ABs. Similar to when Wynegar tried making him hit to the opposite field the year before. Hardy's got a great natural stroke. He just can't think too much out there.

 

Hall - I expect him to bounce back significantly this season. I think he worried too much about his fielding last year. Plus I think he, too was playing through injuries. A return to anywhere near his 2006 numbers would help the Brewers significantly this season.

 

Kendall - He was very un-Kendall-like with the A's last season. I think he'll end up with a .350+ OBP, which will fit in nicely in the #8 spot, a position the Brewers had a hard time finding a fit for in 2007.

 

All told, the Brewers ought to have a very solid lineup this season.

 

As far as pitching, most of the woes last year came when Sheets went down and none of the remaining starters could go more than 5-6 innings. This wore out the pen and cost us the division. I believe it was Ennder (I may be wrong) who made a compelling arguement that this was largely due to bad defense.

 

Sheets will be Sheets. If he remains healthy, he'll be in Cy Young contention. This would have a tremendous impact on the entire staff, as Sheets is the one guy in the rotation who can be counted on to rest the bullpen on a regular basis.

 

Gallardo should put together a very good season. I do worry that being as young as he is, he is due to have some problems. However, he hit the ground running last season when he was called up. Being a strikeout pitcher also helps on a team with bad defense.

 

Suppan is probably the most effected by the porous defense. A move of Braun to LF would have tremendous impact on Suppan's game.

 

Villy has proven that he belongs in the starting rotation. The irregular bullpen workload hurt him last season, and he should flourish in the starting rotation. He's not Yo, so I hope he's not unfairly compared to him. Villy is a solid starter with a good attitude who throws strikes and gets people out. A great guy to have in the middle of the rotation.

 

I'd like to have Capuano to round out the rotation. Not only is he a lefty who is due to bounce back, as his numbers weren't as bad as his record would show. However, I think he's going to be the centerpiece of a trade. Therefore the final spot and the long-relief spot will be Bush / Vargas. The numbers would seem to show that Bush would be more in line to break out and Vargas would be in line to blow up.

 

I think the pen is better than last year. It seems Melvin did a wonderful job of finding good pitchers coming off of down years.

 

I feel that Gagne was a great pickup. He hadn't pitched a full season in years, so it shouldn't have been surprising that he'd wear down in the final months. If he had worn down in Texas, no one would have noticed, and he'd have signed a bigger deal. By wearing down in Boston, the Brewers were able to sign him to a favorable deal. For the closer position, the Brewers probably regress somewhat, but as a player, Gagne will probably progress from last season.

 

Turnbow had a good season last year, and is likely to do the same this season. I think his problems are mental, so as long as he stays out of the Closer role, he should be fine.

 

I'm excited about both Mota and Torres, as both have Closer-stuff. I think they'll do well, but realize that they are high-risk/high-reward type of players. I don't know that this is a step-up from the "pre-beaning" Wise and Villy, but its definitely a step up from the combo of "mentally unstable" Wise and McClung.

 

One of these years, Shouse is due to regress, but it seems he's getting better with age. In the past couple years, he seems to have figured out how to get righties out as well as lefties. With added talent to the pen this year, Shouse should be able to be used in a more traditional LOOGY way, leading to a good season by him. If he in fact realizes that he is getting old, Stetter could step in, although he may initially be a step down from the Shouse of 2007.

 

By process of elimination, it seems that McClung will be the 5th/6th inning guy with the loser of Vargas/Bush being the long guy. McClung seems to be a better reliever than he was a starter. If he can prove he can throw strikes with regularity, he'll impress, and possibly even take Torres or Mota's spot if they don't pan out. I think it's more likely that McClung only sees limited action this season in non-pivitol situations, biding time until some of the AAA guys are ready. I still think McClung in this role is a step up from Aquino or whatever other disaster-waiting-to-happen we've put in this role over the past few seasons.

 

Finally, whoever loses out between Vargas and Bush should be the long man, which is a tremendous step up from that lump who started the season with us last year who spent most of his time with the Brewers on the DL just to get him off the roster. I've tried to forget his time here, so I can't even remember his name... came over for Brady Clark. His failures forced Villy to move from a setup role to more of a long man role and wore out his arm. Yeah, I'll gladly take Vargas for this role.

 

All told, I think the Brewers should be better than last year, although I'll be really happy when the big trade for our new starting 3B/LF gets made.

[lukevan]

I believe there are certain players that can maintain high BABIP, but in most cases BABIP is a fluctuating stat that can be chocked up to luck, good or bad. I think you're right twobrew in that Braun can be one of those players that have high BABIP consistently just because of how hard he hits the ball.

[Ennder]

There is a difference between a high BABIP and one that is out of the ordinary. Braun might maintain a .330ish BABIP or so over his entire career, nobody keeps up a .361 BABIP year in and year out. We don't have a baseline for Braun yet so there isn't a really solid number to regress it to just yet, but you could put him down for a .330 and odds are you will be equal or higher than what he puts up next year.

 

Capuano is what he is, a 4.00-4.50 ERA. He had some luck in 2005 that gave him his big year but it really was no better than last season was. 2006 was easily his best year and 2007 looked a lot like 2005 just with a high BABIP and low LOB%. Both of those things swing wildly from year to year for most pitchers which is why ERA is such a bad stat for judging pitchers. His xERA's have been 4.30, 4.47, 3.94, 4.16 so his basic skills really haven't changed very much year to year, just his ERA has jumped all over the place.

[clancyphile]

Progress:

Weeks - no more wrist problems.

Gross - Thrust into a starting job, he turns into another Burnitz.

Capuano - As a #5 starter, he could rack up another 18-win season.

 

Regress:

Kendall - Age catches up.

[Big Reed]

I would predict the HR power in Hardy, Braun and Fielder will all decrease next year. My reasoning is because I believe a lot of their home runs were the result of the brewers giving up leads and then trying to come back and win the game with one swing - the homer. I also have to believe those three hitters will be pitched to with more caution and will probably get more walks unless they develop bad habits and swing at a lot of bad pitches. Fielder has always had a very good eye , so I would suspect he will accept the walks rather than foolishly trying to swing at bouncing balls. I also believe if Weeks and kendall are half way decent hitters, the brewers will be able to score just as many runs without having to hit the homer. With an improved relief staff, there should be a lot more games where the brewers will not be batting in the 9th inning. Braun's overall stats will drop dramatically. He should still be a .300+ hitter with 25 homers and 100 RBI. But he is not going to take anybody by surprise this year, and opposing teams will have updated their scouting reports on him.

 

I predict Capuano will improve his win total. I doubt his overall pitching improves, but he has to at least win more games.

 

I will predict that Weeks will improve his batting average , but not his OBP. He will get more hits and less walks.

 

not being a Hall fan, I can't see him being any worse than last year, But I don't see him approaching what he did in 2006 either. his batting average should improve to about .275 , and his homers should reach 20.

 

I think hart will improve simply by putting up the same production with increased atbats and a more defined spot in the batting order. it seemed like Hart bounced around in the batting order a lot last year to cover for Weeks and hall's injuries. I think the brewers will place Hart in a spot this year and keep him there. Give Hart 600+ atbats, and he'll prove his worth.

 

I don't expect anything more or less from Suppan.

 

Sheets will will be improved IF healthy.