Seattle looking for pitching

[JohnBriggs12]

When Jose Guillen signed elsewhere, it drastically limited Seattle's ability to deal for a pitcher. Had they signed Guillen, I'm sure Ibanez or Vidro could have been had for what the Brewers have a surplus of. But they don't have replacements for those guys.

 

It's also too bad they didn't go after Jenkins. That too would have allowed them flexibility to deal.

[fondybrewfan]

I also wouldnt mind Beltre. If they are just looking to dump his salary I could deal with Cappy + a prospect while we pick up the whole contract. If the Mariners would be willing to keep some of his salary I would be more inclined to do something like Cappy, Gamel, and another Top 25 prospect. Beltre hasn't been terrible or anything but he is overpaid. I think they would prefer to dump Sexson off on somebody but I just don't see how they are going to be able to do that.

[TooLiveBrew]

FWIW, MLBTR is reporting that the Mariners are shopping Beltre for pitching.

 

If that's true, then Doug needs to make sure he gets this done. While, in an ideal world, you get that mythical LH-hitting, slick fielding, good OBP 3Bman, that's really a lot of filters to put on your search.

 

2007 splits:

 

v. RHP: .274/.314/.466/.780

v. LHP: .280/.338/.544/.882

 

Home: .264/.319/.426/.745

Away: .288/.320/.538/.858

 

3-year Splits:

 

v. RHP: .263/.311/.442/.753

v. LHP: .278/.338/.493/.831

 

Home: .259/.314/.425/.739

Away: .273/.320/.479/.799

 

Of note is that the three-year splits cover Beltre's entire time playing in Seattle (Safeco Park) - which really affects his performance. Especially when you consider that Miller Park plays well for the HR, this is a deal that is a borderline must-do at this point. Beltre carries a relatively high to above-average HR/FB%, and would likely thrive in MP. I think you could mark him down for 30 HR next year if he were a Brewer.

 

His OPS+ in 2007 was 112, which gives a decent idea of how Safeco impacts his game. Add in stellar defense, and this is a player you'll have a hard time improving upon. Especially when you consider that since 2002, Beltre has played in at least 156 games - until 2007 saw him tally 'only' 149. That's Carlos Lee-like durability.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, the "perfect" player simply isn't available to the Brewers, so I think this would be a really good direction to head in.

 

I agree,too, with JB about Ibanez being attractive, but that route actually makes the defense worse (yes, it's possible), unless you move 3 guys around, which simply isn't going to happen no matter how much some of us see the wisdom in it.

 

This scenario is very realistic, IMO, and needs to be explored posthaste.

 

 

 

Haha.....I always wanted to use "posthaste" in a sentence.

[erbacaine04]

Well then for us to be able to deal with the M's..they have to not sign Silva... OR they need to lose out on Bedard.... I would rather they win out on Bedard and lose out on Silva...because that keeps Bedard away from the Reds and Cubs... and they said that the even if they sign Silva they will still go after Bedard...

 

I still think Chavez is worth exploring as well in Oakland... they are in full fire sale mode....but Beane would want a guy like Parra or Villy over cappy and Bush...because they have more service time...

[StearnsFTW]

I agree on Chavez to a certain extent, but he is a pretty big injury risk, like Rolen.

 

I just really like Beltre because he has been extremely durable, as mentioned above, and Seattle is a very good match. Plus Bavasi is brain-dead.

 

And, as you said, Beane doesn't want Capuano/Bush, he wants Parra/Villanueva +. I really don't think either if those guys would be enough by themselves.

[Tbadder]

Right now, with no one on the horizon, I think the Crew should just admit their mistake and move Hall to 3B, Braun to LF, and Hart to CF. Then I'd look to trade the excess pitching for prospects at C, CF, and SP. They might also think of using Gwynn in CF, and just carry a very light bat but with a major upgrade in defense. Afterall defense was their number 1 problem last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

While I prefer the OBP value that Rolen & Chavez carry, the durability may be a tiebreaker/advantage to me for Beltre. In an ideal world, we get Rolen, since he's actually hit RHP better than LHP (and he hits LHP well), and he gives us 125+ games at 3B. However, I worry that he'd miss significant time. Beltre allays that worry as much as any option can.

 

With Chavez, I need someone to elaborate on the concerns (if there are any) regarding his injury heading forward. He's offered great durability over his career, too. He looks to be a better bet than Rolen to log 135+ games next year, and carries a very nice OBP.

 

EDIT: The more I look at Chavez, the more I think he fits what I jokingly called the 'mythical' 3Bman Doug is after, and the less I think he's a big injury worry. Perhaps he's been targeting him all along - how many LH hitting, good fielding 3B are there in MLB - let alone guys that carry the high OBP Melvin mentioned. I'm thinking Doug has had his eye on Chavez from nearly day one.

[StearnsFTW]

I probably shouldn't have mentioned Chavez's injuries, because, quite frankly, I don't know that much about them either.

 

My biggest hesitation with Chavez would be what's required to get him, because I don't think a lot of people would be comfortable with it. I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be.

[Klements Bratwurst]

With Chavez, I need someone to elaborate on the concerns (if there are any) regarding his injury heading forward.

TLB, I liked the idea of Chavez before this read.

 

Beltre has the durability for sure but lack of OBP. Where would you hit him? He doesn't seem to be a #2 hitter that we need.

[StearnsFTW]

Yikes. That doesn't sound good at all. Both shoulders AND his back? No thanks.

 

Also, for experience, they list "10", which would make him a 10/5 guy. He's spent his whole life in Cali, I wonder if he would veto a trade here. Edit: As far as where to hit Beltre, I'd probably hit him 5th or 6th and hit Corey 2nd. Not ideal, but Hart would get a lot of pitches to hit, and since his SB efficiency is so good I don't think he'd steal stupidly, so to speak, in front of Braun. Beltre is a plus baserunner as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Beltre has the durability for sure but lack of OBP. Where would you hit him? He doesn't seem to be a #2 hitter that we need.

At this point, I think filling 3B with a good fielder who can hit a bit/a good hitter who can field a bit is a much higher priority than finding someone to bat 2nd. Plus, Yost will likely skew his lineups all over the place anyway, so why try? Thanks, btw, for that update on Chavez's injuries. Yikes.

 

As mentioned, Hart can probably hit 2nd, although he fits much better at #5. I'd bat Beltre, fwiw, 5th or 6th. So after this discussion, Scott Rolen appears to still be the best option, even with his injury concerns.

 

The following is from CBS's player page on Rolen (btw they mention his shoulder "should be ready for ST"):

 

St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa wants third baseman Scott Rolen back. But only on the team's terms. "He's got a contract to play, and we need him to play," La Russa said Wednesday at the baseball winter meetings. "And he's going to be treated very honestly. If he plays hard and plays as well as he can, he plays. And if he doesn't, he can sit. If he doesn't like it, he can quit." La Russa and Rolen have been feuding at least since the 2006 postseason, when Rolen was benched while struggling with a shoulder injury. The spat lingered last season, and La Russa said Rolen was the lone dissenting voice when the manager was deciding whether to return for another year. "It was unanimous that everyone was for me except him," La Russa said. "It's gotten to the point where I don't care. What I care about is that he re-establish his stature as a major league productive star."

(Updated 12/05/2007).

[TooLiveBrew]

For the concerns about Beltre's OBP, he really had a better BB rate while a younger player. I remain optimistic that it's something that working with Skaalen will help. When you look at how Fielder & Weeks have progressed in terms of plate discipline, I think that shows you that Skaalen has at least a nice minimal impact (I personally believe it's better than 'minimal').

 

In any event, he should hit for more HR power playing in Miller Park, which will affect his SLG%, and then likely his OBP. Couple that with the possibility that Skaalen can help, and I think seeing 45+ BBs from Beltre is a distinct possibility. Basically, if he can offer 50+ BBs for 2008, that's pretty good OBP - especially paired with his glove.

[StearnsFTW]

Does anyone have any guess what Seattle might want for Beltre?

Is Capuano/Gamel even realistic on my part?

Too much?

[erbacaine04]

Does not matter any more...MLBtraderumors.com says that a Silva deal should be announced Tomorrow by the Ms....which means another team bites the dust.... because they are also still the front runners for Bedard and I would rather see him go to the Ms than to the Cards, Cubs, or Reds...

[TooLiveBrew]

Can we really rely upon any rumor to determine who's a front-runner for Bedard? Why signing Silva would make the M's think they're a Bedard away from the division title is beyond me.

Is Capuano/Gamel even realistic on my part?

Too much?

Well, if anything, you're erring on the side of offering more than we'd need to. I can't imagine a good GM would readily say 'no' to that deal - but then again, we'd be dealing with Bavasi instead of a good GM.

[StearnsFTW]

Thanks for the input. In general I feel like I have a pretty good, realistic feel for trade value, but when it comes to Capuano I'm at a loss because I just think he's terrible.

 

As far as Silva goes, even if he does sign it doen't change anything. Seattle still really needs another starter, and while I too hope it's Bedard, I would think that Baltimore would be motivated to move him for the best package, and unfortunately there is little doubt in my mind that Cincinnati can offer the best package. I still believe Bedard will go to Cincy.

 

Hope I'm wrong.

[TooLiveBrew]

cd (great avatar!), here's the best way Capuano has been examined from my recollection. Ennder posted this (among other places) in the "'The Rest of the Central Hard Pressed to Keep Up With Cubs...'" thread (post #80):
____________________________________________________________
Capuano had an xERA of 4.47 in 2005, 3.94 in 2006 and 4.15 in 2007.

7.2 K/9 in 05, 7.1 K/9 in 06, 7.9 k/9 in 07
3.7 BB/9 in 05, 1.9 BB/9 in 06, 3.2 BB/9 in 07
38% GB in 05, 40% GB in 06, 43% GB in 07
12% hr/f in 05, 11% hr/f in 06, 11% hr/f in 07

In every stat that he can heavily control he has improved since 2005, I wish he had kept that 06 BB/9 but it seems to be an outlier.

Now for the more luck based stats.

76% strand rate in 05, 72% in 06, 68% in 07
29% Hit rate in 05, 31% in 06, 34% in 07.

Capuano had a lot of luck in 2005 which was why he had such a low ERA, in 2006 he had that great BB/9 which carried him to a good season. His 2007 year was better than his 2005 year in my opinion, he just had some bad luck with our defense and let in more runs than normal with RISP. My guess is he reverts back to his 72% strand which is about his career rate and to a 31%hit rate which is his career rate and sits at a slightly over 4.00 ERA which is what his skills pointed to last season.
____________________________________________________________

xERA is 'expected ERA', fwiw. Basically, the year in which people determined 'Cappy roolz!' was the same, if not worse than the next season... and then in 2007 his 'luck' stats were about as low as they could have been.

Take note of his hit rates, and bear in mind just how bad our INF defense was in 2006. Capuano is probably the pitcher of CV/Bush/Cappy to keep, if you have to pick just one.

[danzig6767]

Beltre is a prime example of why sometimes people are to quick at saying a player was given a terrible contract. A few years go by with inflation in salaries and suddenly the contract doesn't look bad anymore.