Project the NL Central in 2008

[TheBrewer]

If this is already out there.. feel free to move my post.. thanks

 

1. Brewers - BP is solid this season unlike last, potential to do great things, coupled with the rest of the kids coming back with full years from Braun etc...

2. Cubs - Fukedome is really the only transaction. While everyone else gets older, Fukedome may or may not flop at the Majors

3. Reds - Getting Cordero adds another arm, and with the ambition they have something might happen a little.. but if Weathers goes down, the Cordero signing won't have as great of affect on them

4. Astros - Tejada helps.. a bit.. pitching is atrocious.. Out of the 3 bottom teams, the Astros have the most hope because of their offense.. Valverde replaces Qualls who was already good...

5. Cardinals - Edmonds dealt.. didnt help much already but still.. the weak get weaker

6. Pirates - ouch.. if they deal Bay..oucher

[kgbaseball]

I'd tend to agree with that. I just think the Brewers have made the most upgrades to their team than any team in the division. Reds still don't have enough pitching, Astros are a mess, and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Cardinals' new GM doesn't have a plan right now. I think the Cubs will be darn good, especially that offense.

[wallus]

Can we wait until the offseason is done for this? Seriously.

[sbrylski]

As of today

1 Cubs, 2 Brewers

3 Reds, 4 Astros

5 Cardinals, 6 Pirates

 

That's assuming Braun at 3B and Gross in LF. An average or better bat and above average fielding 3B could win us as many as 5 games, IMO.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, it's too early to do this a lot can still change. I guess right now I'd probably have the Cubs slightly ahead of the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Cubs/Brewers tied for 1st

Reds

Astros

Pirates

Cardinals

 

Cardinals really look terrible to me and Pirates have some young up and coming talent at least. Though they might not score enough to get out of last place. From the Astros on down I think the teams are terrible though and will struggle to sniff .500. Yes even with the moves the Astros made they are still a pretty bad team.

[bretsky07]

Talent-wise it definitely seems that the Cubs and Brewers are a cut above the rest, with the Reds slowly trying to overtake the Cards for third best, and at the bottom the Astros are struggling mightily to stay out of last place this year, but at the expense of their future.

[splitterpfj]

The Cubs are pushing the Twins to discuss Joe Nathan, the Brewers would have surprised us all if they'd gotten Tejada, Houston is making aggressive moves, and the Reds are still in the hunt for Bedard.

 

Ask me in a month.

[yoshii8]

Brewers

Cubs

Cardinals

Astros

Reds

Pirates

[crewcrazy]

The only thing I'm comfortable saying right now is that the regular season finale may end up deciding who goes to the playoffs.

[tigerbrew]

My current projection, but it may change if more moves are made amongst the teams.
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Reds
4. Astros
5. Cardinals
6. Pirates

Hope the Brewers try hard for Bedard. With a rotation of Bedard, Sheets, Yo, Suppan and CV, and the improved bullpen, the Brewers could possibly outpitch their division rivals and move to #1.

[GAME05]

1. Cubs: no real subtractions to a division-winning team, but they add Fukudome. It's a veteran team, so I don't see any major fall-off of player production. I expect Soriano to have a better year and hope they keep him in the leadoff spot where he can do less damage then in the middle of the lineup.

 

2. Brewers: better bullpen minus a good closer i consider a push. true we have rising players, but as young players go, some will have better years and some will slip. rotation is deep but a potential to be extremely up and down. Weeks is my breakout candidate. Thing is, it's still pretty early, so a star at 3b vs. a ML-average player might be enough to put us ahead of the Cubs (yes, i presume Braun in LF).

 

boy, it's like sticking your hand in mud from here on out...

 

3. Astros: yippie, their additions will raise them to mediocrity for 08 and 09. so i guess it's Oswalt and then cross your fingers. don't they know that Valverde is useless if you're already down by four runs?

 

4. Cardinals: only over the Reds because of LaRussa and some smart players. the Cards always perform above their ability, and 4th in the division might really be over their ability.

 

5. Reds: CoCo will help, Dunn in a contract year and a couple of rising stars. is Freel not the most fun player to watch in the Central?

 

6. Pirates: it seems no matter what changes they make to their team, it's always a safe bet to put them at the bottom of their division. sheesh, either add $30 million to your payroll or Marlin-ize the team, but playing it in the middle like they do is more sad than anything.

[brewdude15]

If the Brewers make two additions (a LF and Bedard), I can't see why they aren't the top team in 2008.

 

Right now, I'd go:

 

1. Brewers

2. Cubs

3. Cardinals (Carpenter's back)

4. Astros (Berkman, Lee, and Tejada is scary)

5. Reds (I still say their pitching sucks)

6. Pirates (undisputed bottom feeders)

[nBo Baseball]

Here's how the NL Central will finish in 2008:

 

1: Brewers

2: Astros

3: Cardinals

4: Reds

5: Pirates

6: The Stinking Chitcago Scrubs

 

Remember you heard it from me so it has to be true!!!!

[Tbadder]

1.Cubs: there's hope here because of the injuries that Lee and Rameriz and Soriano continue to rack up. I don't believe Lilly will repeat his year, but if he does and Fukudome turns out to be an OBP machine the rest of the divison will suffer.

 

2. Reds: just like the Brewers the young Reds (Bruce, Bailey, Votto, Cuerto) will surprise people and catch the NL off guard. Expect a Brewers mirror season, quick start, long fade--if they don't start quick expect the GM to mistakenly unload Dunn and Griffey. Reds could fall all the way to the Pirates in a worst case scenario. In a best case scenario Gallardo become the 3rd best young pitcher in the division.

 

3. Brewers: they just haven't done any thing since the 24-10 start. There's no reason to believe they can improve on last year without solving their defensive problems and their weak starting pitching (contrast this with what the Diamondbacks did). A Weeks mega-breakout year might give us hope.

 

There doesn't appear to be anyone else in the division as far as I can tell. Brewers might jump up to 2nd, but the Cubbies look too solid for the Crew to really challenge. This could all change in a heartbeat with the acquisition of Rolen and a starter of Bedard-like quality. But I doubt Melvin will pull this string as he could've wrapped up the division with a package of prospects and major leaguers for Haren. And yet, something will get done in Milwaukee, and in the end that will determine the Brewers true chances. So this is probably a little premature.

[Fatter than Joey]

As of today

 

Cubs

Reds

Brewers

Astros

Cards

Pirates

[JohnBriggs12]

The only thing I'll predict right now is that the Cardinals and Pirates will be at the bottom. I think the situation in St. Louis is worse actually than in Pittsburgh though so I'll go Pittsburgh 5th and St. Louis 6th.

 

I'll reserve judgement on the top four until rosters are set.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Today:

Cubs - Have improved slightly on div winner.

Brewers - Bullpen moves have made up for Cordero loss.

Reds - Best team in division post-break + Cordero.

(insert gap)

Astros - Oswalt & who will be starting? Valverde may convert 16/16 save opps. Only team with chance to close gap.

Cards - Redbuilding time.

Pirates - Why do these guys give us so many problems?

 

With Rolen for Capuano:

Brewers - Need experienced glove with decent OBP at third...where do I order my playoff tickets? 1-2 per game combo of less ABs against our pitchers and extra OBs for the mashers. Plus the steady leader in clubhouse. Sign me up.

Cubs - Wild Card

 

We're one move away from being my fave among 3 tight teams at top.

[Ennder]

I guess the real question is, have the Cubs improved? I see everyone posting it but is it actually true? Their older players got older and they replaced Floyd/Jones with a player from Japan coming off an injury who wasn't as good as Hideki Matsui in Japan and would put up weaker stats than Floyd/Jones if he put up exactly the same stats as Matsui did his rookie year. They have commited to a completely unproven C full time and are looking at starting Pie full time who hasn't had any success in the majors.

 

Have they really improved any more than anyone else in the division? I just don't see how that team is gaurenteed anymore improvement than the Brewers have made with the bullpen revamp and the young guys getting a year older.

[SnapFan1]

Here's how the NL Central will finish in 2008:

 

1: Brewers

2: Astros

3: Cardinals

4: Reds

5: Pirates

6: The Stinking Chitcago Scrubs

 

Remember you heard it from me so it has to be true!!!!

 

I like your placement of the Cubs. The only change I have is to switch the Cardinals and Astros:

 

1. Brewers

2. Cardinals

3. Astros

4. Reds

5. Pirates

6. Cubs

[rotoherb]

I guess the real question is, have the Cubs improved? I see everyone posting it but is it actually true? Their older players got older and they replaced Floyd/Jones with a player from Japan coming off an injury who wasn't as good as Hideki Matsui in Japan and would put up weaker stats than Floyd/Jones if he put up exactly the same stats as Matsui did his rookie year. They have commited to a completely unproven C full time and are looking at starting Pie full time who hasn't had any success in the majors.

 

Have they really improved any more than anyone else in the division? I just don't see how that team is gaurenteed anymore improvement than the Brewers have made with the bullpen revamp and the young guys getting a year older.

Those are all very valid questions and you could be completely correct that none of the changes the Cubs have made have improved them at all. I just don't expect all of those changes to not pan out. Except for Soto's 54 ABs last season, the catchers for the Cubs hit a collective .213/.271/.593. I don't think Soto is going to be any sort of all-star, but I'd be hard pressed to say that he's not going to be an improvement both offensively and defensively. Nate Silver's PECOTA projects Fukudome for .289/.401/.504 next season. That seems really optimistic to me, but even if he hits .270/.370/.430 then he'll be an improvement over Jones and Floyd's combined .750 OPS. All of those things you mention certain could happen - Soto could fall flat, Fukudome could be a bust, Pie could still struggle - but I don't expect all of them to happen that way. Even if one or two of those moves pan out, it's likely that they'll be better off offensively than they were last year. The Cubs were below average offensively last season, it's not going to take much to improve on that. That said, the Cubs aren't head and shoulders above the Brewers. It's definitely close enough that if the Brewers can find a suitable third baseman and move Braun to left field then that alone could get them past the Cubs. As the rosters stand right now though, I'd give an edge to the Cubs.

 

[Ennder]

Giving the Cubs the advantage is fine with me, it is just all the people who say they have improved and the Brewers haven't. They have a few question marks that they are relying on improving their team just like we do.

 

Floyd put up a .373 OBP and .422 SLG last season.

Jones put up a .335 OBP and .400 SLG last season.

 

Hideki Matsui put up a .353 OBP and .435 SLG his first year.

 

I've seen Fuku projected at anywhere between a .900 OPS and a sub .800 OPS. I just don't see this as a sure thing big upgrade for them. Soto is probably an upgrade over their other C's but when you add in Blanco just how big an upgrade is? Pie is as likely to struggle as say Parra or Gross/Dillon or whoever for the Brewers. Seems like everyone is assuming the worst for the Brewers and the best for the Cubs in these posts. The Brewer bullpen arms aren't sure things to work out but neither are the Cubs bats that they added.

[logan82]

I have a hard time placing the division this year because if the Brewers and Cubs are close to even I would never put the Cubs ahead of us, but I always give the division champion the benifit of the doubt and put them in first like I did with the Cardinals last year.