"The Rest Of The Central Hard Pressed To keep Up With Cubs..."

[Ennder]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071218&content_id=2329957&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

 

Astros are talking to Prior and might go after Benson. I guess if they sign a bunch of injury type guys and get lucky they could have a real team this season.

[Oldcity]

Also, anyway you slice it, we still finished second to the Cubs so in essence we need to improve more than they do.

Not necessarily. The teams were pretty close. They could theoretically field the exact same team as last year and the Brewers would have a shot at beating them, if nothing else on pure luck.

 

[rluzinski]

Trying to decide what team will be better by comparing the previous season and throwing in consideration of off-season transactions is not the way to go, IMO. It ignores so many other, very important factors. First and formost is the luck factor. The fact that the Cubs finished with 2 more wins in 162 games tells us almost nothing about their relative talent, compared to the Brewers. Both teams basically played even over the course of the season, record-wise. You need to look much closer to extract any useful information, specfically, at the individual level.

Second, player talent is not static. Take two teams of equal talent in year 1. All else equal, the younger team should be expected to improve in year 2. An older team will be expected to get worse, on average. Third, injuries and general changes tot he lineup/rotation play a large part of this kind of analysis. Just because a team doesn't sign a new player at a position doesn't mean they'll have the same guy playing there.

It seems to me like every season, the team that's praised as having the best off season, in terms of free agent signings and trade aquisitions, is always over rated going into the season. The other 20+ guys on the roster matter at least as much.

[Samurai Bucky]

3. Capuano has a better 2008 than 2007 if he is not moved

I really, really, really, really hope that Cappy has a better season. He was very disappointing in the tail end of '06 and through all of '07. I wonder if they will pull the plug on him if he doesn't do well in the first half of '08...

 

[Ennder]

Capuano had an xERA of 4.47 in 2005, 3.94 in 2006 and 4.15 in 2007.

 

7.2 K/9 in 05, 7.1 K/9 in 06, 7.9 k/9 in 07

3.7 BB/9 in 05, 1.9 BB/9 in 06, 3.2 BB/9 in 07

38% GB in 05, 40% GB in 06, 43% GB in 07

12% hr/f in 05, 11% hr/f in 06, 11% hr/f in 07

 

In every stat that he can heavily control he has improved since 2005, I wish he had kept that 06 BB/9 but it seems to be an outlier.

 

Now for the more luck based stats.

 

76% strand rate in 05, 72% in 06, 68% in 07

29% Hit rate in 05, 31% in 06, 34% in 07.

 

Capuano had a lot of luck in 2005 which was why he had such a low ERA, in 2006 he had that great BB/9 which carried him to a good season. His 2007 year was better than his 2005 year in my opinion, he just had some bad luck with our defense and let in more runs than normal with RISP. My guess is he reverts back to his 72% strand which is about his career rate and to a 31%hit rate which is his career rate and sits at a slightly over 4.00 ERA which is what his skills pointed to last season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Can we bookmark that post so Ennder doesn't have to keep making it when people evaluate Cappy by his W-L & ERA? It'd save everyone time.

 

I'm only half-kidding. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fear The Chorizo]

Couple Fukudome's elbow surgery with the fact that he's faced almost none of the pitchers he'll be facing in 08, and something tells me that Cub fans will have plenty of occasions to turn his name into a derogatory slight on his play.

 

he'll be OK offensively, but I don't see him being that big a factor to consider him a difference maker for the NL central. I think players like Hall, Weeks, Lily, Hill, Pie, Capuano, and Gagne will play a much bigger role in determining which team ends up playing the best.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Capuano had an xERA of 4.47 in 2005, 3.94 in 2006 and 4.15 in 2007.

 

7.2 K/9 in 05, 7.1 K/9 in 06, 7.9 k/9 in 07

3.7 BB/9 in 05, 1.9 BB/9 in 06, 3.2 BB/9 in 07

38% GB in 05, 40% GB in 06, 43% GB in 07

12% hr/f in 05, 11% hr/f in 06, 11% hr/f in 07

 

In every stat that he can heavily control he has improved since 2005, I wish he had kept that 06 BB/9 but it seems to be an outlier.

 

Now for the more luck based stats.

 

76% strand rate in 05, 72% in 06, 68% in 07

29% Hit rate in 05, 31% in 06, 34% in 07.

 

Capuano had a lot of luck in 2005 which was why he had such a low ERA, in 2006 he had that great BB/9 which carried him to a good season. His 2007 year was better than his 2005 year in my opinion, he just had some bad luck with our defense and let in more runs than normal with RISP. My guess is he reverts back to his 72% strand which is about his career rate and to a 31%hit rate which is his career rate and sits at a slightly over 4.00 ERA which is what his skills pointed to last season.

I think we're reaching the point where the only person that reads this (or cares) is Ennder

[TooLiveBrew]

I think we're reaching the point where the only person that reads this (or cares) is Ennder

I obviously disagree. If you want to ignore really relevant observations, I guess that's your choice.

[logan82]

Fear The Chorizo wrote:

I think we're reaching the point where the only person that reads this (or cares) is Ennder

Not true at all. I would hate to lose a solid starting pitcher because of the perception that he was terrible last year when in fact he was just unlucky.

[gregmag]

I think we're reaching the point where the only person that reads this (or cares) is Ennder

 

If you're going to insult somebody, don't hide behind the goodwill of everybody who (a) disagrees with you and/or (b) doesn't go around insulting people.

 

Very toughtful and informative post, Ennder.

 

Greg.

[pogokat]

agreed...

 

i think your post is a borderline warnable offense...step lightly

[Scooter1027]

I think we're reaching the point where the only person that reads this (or cares) is Ennder

 

If you're going to insult somebody, don't hide behind the goodwill of everybody who (a) disagrees with you and/or (b) doesn't go around insulting people.

 

Very toughtful and informative post, Ennder.

 

Greg.

Agreed.

 

Fantastic post Ennder, it was what I theorized about Capuano actually fleshed out in numbers. I didn't even know where to begin to find a lot of that stuff. If we were to trade Cappy this offseason, I hope we don't sell too low -- I think he's in for a solid bounce back this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pretty much the only guy I'd part with Cappy to get (realistically) is Rolen, and even then you could probably get him by starting with Bush or Vargas.

[rluzinski]

Capuano had a lot of luck in 2005 which was why he had such a low ERA, in 2006 he had that great BB/9 which carried him to a good season. His 2007 year was better than his 2005 year in my opinion, he just had some bad luck with our defense and let in more runs than normal with RISP. My guess is he reverts back to his 72% strand which is about his career rate and to a 31%hit rate which is his career rate and sits at a slightly over 4.00 ERA which is what his skills pointed to last season.

 

I think that analysis is dead on. You don't give away a starting pitcher that should be expected to have an ERA under 4.5.

[RussBuss]

I thought this was the best post for this. I was listening to XM last night and Steve Stone was on. He said that barring injury, the Cubs would EASILY win the NL Central next year.

 

He also said that the Brian Roberts deal would get done and that they would also get another arm, like Joe Blanton. His reasoning on how they could get those guys? Their large number of young, quality arms in the minors!

 

I usually respect Steve, but did he hit is head or something?

[jjfanec]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_weisman/12/20/nl.rotations/index.html

Jon Weisman from CNNSI just put out an article ranking the NL rotations for this upcoming year. It has the Brewers at 3rd and the Cubs at 9th. It was done simply by ranking each starting pitcher and potential starters from being elite, above average, average, up and coming and below average. The brewers got 14 points and the Cubs got 10. He had really good things to say about Yo and Carlos. Just thought it was an interesting take on the rest of the NL Central being hard pressed to keep up with the Cubs.

[Tbadder]

I'm waiting on Cappy. I think he could go either way. Rather than looking at pitching stats, I'd like to see how many pitchers that were straddled with that many losses, and that ugly winning percentage, came back and had a decent year. The psychology of sport is pretty delicate at times, and most times I'm guessing overrides simple performance stats.

Though I'd love to be wrong considering he's still a Brewer.

[Ennder]

Bonderman had 19 losses his rookie year and improved every year after until last year and showed huge improvement the next season. He was the only guy off the top of my head that had a miserable number of losses.

 

It isn't rare at all to find a guy get unlucky with LOB% and H% one year and be normal the next year, in fact it is commonplace to see it. So for my money he'll bounce back most likely. Keep in mind that if the bullpen lets in an 'average' number of runners he left on his ERA is only 4.84. Only takes a little more adjustment to push him into the 4.00-4.50 ERA range I'd expect out of him.

 

Now if he comes out and loses his first 3 or 4 games or something I could see your point, maybe it gets into his head some.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I'm waiting on Cappy. I think he could go either way. Rather than looking at pitching stats, I'd like to see how many pitchers that were straddled with that many losses, and that ugly winning percentage, came back and had a decent year. The psychology of sport is pretty delicate at times, and most times I'm guessing overrides simple performance stats.

Though I'd love to be wrong considering he's still a Brewer.

Psychology plays a huge role in baseball. Look at Wise last year after the plunk. He just wasn't the same pitcher. Losing does take a toll on a pitcher. If it was just a one year stretch, you can overlook it as a bad year. He is now a year and half into his funk. He has the stuff to be a decent starting pitcher but will he be straighten things out mentally this year is the question.

 

Also, everyone here is expecting improvements out of all the younger players but you can't bank on it. I place more stock into players who have performed year over year(minors and majors). Braun and Prince have done it. Weeks has not done it in the majors except for a month here or there. Hardy had a phenomenal first two months of the season that came out of nowhere and than he reverted back to his old self. This is a big year for Weeks and Hardy.

 

Look I am not knocking the Brewers. We have a lot of great talent but other than the great start last year we were mediocre. We need better pitching, both starting and relief, better defense, a good bench and an additional guy in the lineup that has a very good on base percentage. Going through a pennant race will prove to be invaluable for this club but we still have a few holes to fill. We still have time to fill them but as of today, I don't see us having gained any ground on the Cubs. The Cubs were a better team at the end of the year than the beginning and we were at the opposite end of the spectrum. A healthy Sheets for an entire year would go a long long way towards making this team better but can we realistically expect that out of him based on his recent past history. Lets hope so. I would love nothing more than to be wrong about this.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hardy had a phenomenal first two months of the season that came out of nowhere and than he reverted back to his old self. This is a big year for Weeks and Hardy.

 

Hardy's production hardly came out of nowhere. He was very solid through the minors, as you credit Braun & Prince for being (and omit Hart's stellar track record). Weeks has shown us what he can do in MLB fully healthy - look at his numbers after being recalled from AAA. I do agree, though, that 2008 is 'big' for Rickie, especially.

[logan82]

Psychology plays a huge role in baseball. Look at Wise last year after the plunk. He just wasn't the same pitcher. Losing does take a toll on a pitcher. If it was just a one year stretch, you can overlook it as a bad year. He is now a year and half into his funk. He has the stuff to be a decent starting pitcher but will he be straighten things out mentally this year is the question.

Wise also lost velocity on his fastball and gained speed on his change bringing them so close together that they were inneffective. I will admit that psychology plays some part. Didn't Villy hit a guy in spring training? He seemed pretty good this year.

[Ennder]

All good points if Capuano was actually pitching worse than he did in the past... but he didn't. He gave up fewer extra base hits, K'd more, BB'd less, induced more GB's and just gave up more singles and the bullpen let in more runs than you'd expect on him. That doesn't paint a picture of a pitcher who is psychologically spent. Just one who had some bad defense and bullpen behind him.

[BADGERJOBOB]

All good points if Capuano was actually pitching worse than he did in the past... but he didn't. He gave up fewer extra base hits, K'd more, BB'd less, induced more GB's and just gave up more singles and the bullpen let in more runs than you'd expect on him. That doesn't paint a picture of a pitcher who is psychologically spent. Just one who had some bad defense and bullpen behind him.

Yes also all good points but Sheets, Yo, Vargas, Bush, Suppan and Villy also had the same bad defense and bullpen behind them and they were not a guaranted loss whenever they took the mound. There is more to baseball than just stats.

[Ennder]

Bush had a higher ERA than Capuano! Sorry but that comment is usually just a cop out. I agree fully that there is a psychological side to baseball but when you are having problems like that you see stats like Wise put up late last season. You don't pitch better in every single way except giving up a few extra singles and having the bullpen let in a lot of runners you left on base.

 

There is luck or 'noise' in all stats especially ERA, I just don't get why people try so hard to ignore it.

 

There is a stat called fair runs against. It basically is runs against with the bullpen support set to a neutral number.

 

Capuano - 5.35

Vargas - 5.50

Suppan - 5.04

Bush - 5.32

Villanueva - 4.28

Sheets - 3.98

Gallardo - 3.87

 

I think that is pretty close to the truth about our pitchers last season. Capuano, Vargas, Suppan and Bush all pitched about the same just with different degrees of luck. Suppan left games with 19 runners on and only 4 were let in by the bullpen. Capuano left games with 25 men on and 16 of them were let in. Set that number to a Suppan's rate and Capuano is sitting at a 4.44 ERA. That example alone should show you why ERA is such a useless stat for judging a pitcher.