"The Rest Of The Central Hard Pressed To keep Up With Cubs..."

[TooLiveBrew]

Please leave the Astros at the door for any serious discussion(s) of 2008.

 

we have not made any upgrades this year.

Gallardo for a full season.

Villanueva in the rotation for a full season.

Braun for a full season.

Added Riske, Torres, and Gagne to the bullpen.

Added OBP from the C position.

Looking to bring in a 3B so Braun's D can be hidden in LF.

 

Yet the Cubs, who've signed one player of note, are the movers and shakers?

 

EDIT: Sorry, didn't mean to be a jerk. Glad to see you on the board, BJB! I'm just tired of being told (not meaning by you, but by the media) how the Cubs have done so much to make themselves better when the Crew are the more improved team.

[homer]

I think you can add a healthy Weeks to that list too.

[TooLiveBrew]

great point, homer. And to be fair to the Cubs, they've got Pie for a full season (even though he wasn't all that impressive in his small MLB stint in 2007). But when you factor in that Dempster is being plugged into the rotation, that may offset any plus from Pie.

 

The domino effect of Dempster to the rotation is great for Brewers fans - Howry to CP, with Marmol remaining as the set-up man. That takes arguably their best RP (Howry) out of some of the highest-leverage situations. I like it.

[brewers4eric]

The Cubs got quite a bit of mileage out of their starting rotation in 2007. I thought that the contracts that they gave to Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were ridiculous, but they chewed up the innings. Additionally, I expected Rich Hill to falter after his fast start. Carlos Marmol gave them additional stability in the late innings when Howry and Eyre were inconsistent.

 

The key to the Cubs is the same as it is for the Brewers. If the starters are healthy and consistent and they identify 3 or 4 guys that can throw 180 plus innings, they can let the bullpen sort itself out. I expect the Cubs pitchers to regress a bit in 2008, just for the simple fact that they performed better than expected last year. The Brewers probably have a longer list of talented pitchers, especially starters, but it will take a long time to sort out the roles for the bullpen candidates.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Please leave the Astros at the door for any serious discussion(s) of 2008.

 

we have not made any upgrades this year.

Gallardo for a full season.

Villanueva in the rotation for a full season.

Braun for a full season.

Added Riske, Torres, and Gagne to the bullpen.

Added OBP from the C position.

Looking to bring in a 3B so Braun's D can be hidden in LF.

 

Yet the Cubs, who've signed one player of note, are the movers and shakers?

 

EDIT: Sorry, didn't mean to be a jerk. Glad to see you on the board, BJB! I'm just tired of being told (not meaning by you, but by the media) how the Cubs have done so much to make themselves better when the Crew are the more improved team.

 

Thanks TLB. I am just trying to be objective. The signing off Fukudome is viewed as an impactful signing where he should be a better player than what the Cubs had throughout the year. Based on what I have read about him, he is a good player that will get on base for their big boppers and is good defensively. Also I don't believe the Cubs lost anyone of significance.

 

The brew crew on the other hand still have a big hole at 3B/LF and have taken a hit at the closer position. Yes we get Gallardo for a full season and Braun as well but Braun was with us for almost the entire season and Gallardo and Villanueva are still two very young players who have not as of yet proved their worth for an entire season in the major leagues as starting pitchers.

 

I view the addition of Riske and Torres as very minor upgrades at this point in time. Torres is old and never impressed me and still might not even pitch an inning for us and I don't know enough about Riske other than he didn't fare well when he was put in the position of closing out games. Also, anyway you slice it, we still finished second to the Cubs so in essence we need to improve more than they do. So if they add one impactful player, we need to add two. At this point in time, I don't see it but it is not to say that we won't make some moves before the start of the year. Who knows, maybe LaPorta is the real deal and starts 125 plus games for us and is every bit as good as Braun but that is the beauty of baseball as you never know what to fully expect from year to the next.

 

With Houston, I don't think they will contend but they have added some star names to their team and they should be improved but I haven't really analyzed their team to make a strong comment on that. In the end it will come down the the Cubs and the Brewers and it should be a close race. I just don't see us as better at this point in time. Just differing opinions.

[lukevan]

Didn't Torres say that he will report to the Crew?

[logan82]

Our "hole" in LF, Gross/Dillon platoon at this point, is not much worse than what we had last year in a declining Jenkins and Mench. Might even give us a better OBP.

[TooLiveBrew]

Torres is reporting to ST.

 

The brew crew on the other hand still have a big hole at 3B/LF and have taken a hit at the closer position.

 

Well, the Cubs still have a hole at SS, which is light-years worse than our vacancy at 3B.

 

You write off Riske far too easily. He's probably the best RP in our bullpen. In any event, while we may well not find an equal to Cordero (not talking Saves-wise), the rest of the bullpen, and the bullpen as a whole, is significantly better than last year - where the Cubs' is the same, except minus Dempster at the CP spot - meaning Howry will be there, pitching less important situations than he was when in in the 6th/7th innings.

 

Thus, you can - and should - make the argument that the Cubs' bullpen is weaker than in 2007 (that is, as long as Dempster really is headed to the rotation). Couple that with a fluky good year from Marquis in '07, and I think you can say the pitching as a whole is worse - as of today.

 

Then your only two upgrades are Pie for a full campaign, and obviously Fukudome. Basically, at best the Cubs are the same right now as they were in 2007 (slight downgrades in P, slight upgrades on O). I for one am not sold that Soto will be anything more than solid, which may well be a step up for them from 2007.

 

Their improvements just don't keep up with ours as of yet. Fukudome's signing narrows that gap, but the Crew is still a more improved team, largely due to our young guys being around in more important roles/for an entire season.

 

Doug will get the 3B/LF situation sorted out, but we just have to be patient. And again, please refrain from mentioning the Astros as worrisome for 2007. They added names. That's it. While Tejada may be an upgrade from what they had at 3B last year, he's not nearly enough to talk about them being dangerous. As for Valverde, well, they traded Qualls to get a very, very, similar pitcher back - plus they gave up two other players. Names they wanted, names they got.

 

The Reds are much more dangerous in 2008 than the 'Stros.

 

EDIT: I just don't see us as better at this point in time. Just differing opinions.

 

Right - I think the Crew has progressed to the point of being at or over 90 wins, where the Cubs have assured that they're more around 85 wins (or less - I really think them moving Dempster to the rotation would be a great mistake given the domino effect it'll have). If/when Doug can add our new 3Bman, I'll comfortably say we're over 90 wins in 2008.

[Fatter than Joey]

Gallardo for a full season.

Villanueva in the rotation for a full season.

Braun for a full season.

Added Riske, Torres, and Gagne to the bullpen.

Added OBP from the C position.

Looking to bring in a 3B so Braun's D can be hidden in LF.

 

Gallardo made 17 starts last year -- I suspect he will make 17 starts that will be better than Cappy/Vargas/Bush did

 

Villy made 6 starts -- I suspect if he could make 25 additional starts those would be better than Cappy/Vargas/Bush

 

When defense is factored in, Braun for a month over Counsellino is a marginal improvement.

 

We added Riske/Gagne in the BP -- we lose Villy/Linebrink/Wise and Cordero. I don't see a big improvement.

 

As far as"looking at 3b" -- If that happens -- that would be a huge improvement -- but I am not getting the vibe that we will move Braun unless we get a 3b. -- It has yet to happen.

 

As far as Catcher goes -- We used to buy Pop-Tarts at Sam's -- You would get 4 boxes of pop-tarts 3 of the scrumptious red flavor and one of the less tasty brown flavor. They would oftentimes interchange the brown, sometimes they would be "brown sugar" or "unfrosted". You could have a debate about which type of the brown flavor was less desirable, but at the end of the day you only ate the brown flavored pop-tarts because all the red pop-tarts were contracted to your wife & kids.

 

Their improvements just don't keep up with ours as of yet.

 

They don't need to -- they were a better team last year --

 

I for one am not sold that Soto will be anything more than solid, which may well be a step up for them from 2007.

 

I'd take solid over Kendall in a heartbeat.

 

The Reds are much more dangerous in 2008 than the 'Stros.

 

This I agree with wholeheartedly.

 

Right - I think the Crew has progressed to the point of being at or over 90 wins, where the Cubs have assured that they're more around 85 wins

 

Wow -- I don't see where the Brewers are a 90 win team and the Cubs are an 85 win team. The Cubs won 41 games after the AS break, the Brewers won 34 --- Once the Cubs got healthy (Lee Soriano Ramirez) they played better baseball.

[Ennder]

Wow -- I don't see where the Brewers are a 90 win team and the Cubs are an 85 win team. The Cubs won 41 games after the AS break, the Brewers won 34 --- Once the Cubs got healthy (Lee Soriano Ramirez) they played better baseball.

 

I don't know if I buy into that. They were 12-16 in September and they were healthy then. They got really hot in June/July and that was basically the difference in the season. That and the Brewers September where they let in a whopping 173 runs or 45 more than any other month of the season. A total collapse of the pitching staff for one month was a big part of why we lost the division.

 

On the season we scored 801 and allowed 776. The Cubs scored 752 and allowed 690. I personally feel the Cubs pitched over their heads last season so I expect that 690 to grow and I think the Brewers are the same staff as last year but without that extra 45 runs in Sept, that leaves them at about a 86 win team.

[LUKE232323]

The Brewers rotation is the biggest thing that I think we see an upgrade in this year. I think all of the following are safe assumptions:

 

1. Sheets pitches more innings than last year and has at least as good of numbers as 2007 (I know many will balk at this one)

2. Suppan has a better 2008 than 2007

3. Capuano has a better 2008 than 2007 if he is not moved

4. Villanueva for a full season >>> either of Vargas or Bush for a full season

5. Gallardo for a full season >>> either of Vargas of Bush for a full season

6. The omittance of Vargas and/or Bush from the rotation means less shorter outings (with Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo all able to pitch deep into games).

 

I agree with those that say the pen is hard to predict. I could see many guys bouncing back from their prior years due to a variety of factors, but overall I think the pen will be similar to 2007. The one thing I am hoping is that the 2008 pen will not have to pitch as many players on so many consecutive days due to the starters not going deep into games.

 

Offensively, I see a slight drop from Braun and Fielder, but not massive, and a slight increase from Hall and a big increase from Weeks. I think we score a comparable amount of runs as last year, although I see team OBP rising and team HR dropping. I still think we add a 3B (Blalock or Rolen), and that paired with Hall getting another year in CF and Weeks getting another offseason working at 2B improves the D. I don't think we'll be great on D, but at least get to serviceable.

 

It will be a close race all year. I see us at 85-88 wins next year, like many.

[logan82]

Fatter than Joey wrote:

We added Riske/Gagne in the BP -- we lose Villy/Linebrink/Wise and Cordero. I don't see a big improvement.

We also added Torres and Mota. Popo them all you want they have good career track records and add depth to our pen. Also with Villy and Gallardo in the rotation we should have a pretty solid long man in one of Cappy/Vargas/Bush.

[Fatter than Joey]

We also added Torres and Mota. Popo them all you want they have good career track records and add depth to our pen.

 

A mirror could add depth to our pen as well.

 

I'm not sold on Torres. Mota just makes me sad.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Matt Murton and Cliff Floyd combined for a line of around 283 / 365 / 430 last year. That's what Fukudome is attempting to replace. The Cubs will get better outfield D, but I'll be quite surprised if Fukudome hits better than that. His SLG might not even reach that level. He ain't Tsuyoshi Shinjo, but he ain't Ichiro or Matsui either. So color me unimpressed by arguments attempting to hand them the division in December based on that one "significant" move.

 

Oh, and brown sugar cinnamon pop tarts are WAY better than any other variety.

[Fatter than Joey]

Matt Murton and Cliff Floyd combined for a line of around 283 / 365 / 430 last year.

 

PECOTA projects Fukudome as .289/.401/.504/.905

 

Oh, and brown sugar cinnamon pop tarts are WAY better than any other variety.

 

Clearly you need recalibration, and your arguments fail.

[dadofandrew]

Pecota is way too high, they basically just moved over his Japan numbers. Not sure what they're thinking.

[logan82]

LUKE232323 wrote:

The omittance of Vargas and/or Bush from the rotation means less shorter outings (with Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo all able to pitch deep into games).

Bush was one of the guys who actually had a pretty good percentage of long outings.

 

Mota is no worse than Wise. The cinnamon and brown sugar pop tarts are indeed the best.

[And That]

Pecota is way too high, they basically just moved over his Japan numbers. Not sure what they're thinking.

Yah, basically what I've seen as far as projections for Fukodome are just exaggerated translations of his Japanese stats into MLB. I hope he doesn't reach the projections both from a perspective of being a Brewer fan and from the perspective that I hope people finally start to work diligently on translations from Japan/Taiwan/South Korea to MLB.

 

Edit: Completely OT, but cinnamon/brown sugar toaster tarts are 10x better than the cherry/berry equivalence. Off-brand cherry pop tarts remind me of Cisco in a breakfast pastry.

[flosses like fossas]

I'm not sold on Torres. Mota just makes me sad.

i like the chances that Torres is solid for us, and I see getting Mota for Estrada - a guy whose value is obviously somewhere between minimal and nil - is a depth move that puts us in no worse financial situation than if we'd kept Estrada. the way the bullpen fell off last year, i'm all for hoarding a stable full of major-league-ready arms, regardless their most recent track records.

 

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

CHONE has Fukudome at 283 / 373 / 465, which is probably less than 1 win better than the Floyd/Murton line. That PECOTA line beats any of Matsui's seasons so far, and Matsui came over with a much better rep as a hitter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here are two other forecasts for Fukudome - which I think are much more realistic, fwiw (moved these from the Fukudome thread):

 

CHONE: .283/.373/.465/.838

ZiPS: .293/.382/.460/.842

 

I don't mind PECOTA's .401 OBP in theory, but since that's tied to SLG, and I disagree that he'll slug north of .500, I do take issue with the OBP number. I think his OBP will be around .375, and his SLG somewhere between .450-.475.

[Ennder]

Forecaster has him down for a .260/.349/.420/.767 line just to keep it complete. He is coming off of elbow surgery which should surpress his numbers somewhat and Matsui put up similar OBP's in japan and put up a .287/.353/.435/.788 line his rookie year at a younger age and without the injury.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ah - that's right. I'd forgotten about his elbow injury/ies. Does Forecaster have him logging 450+ ABs? I'd have to imagine if they/it feel/s so strongly about his injury impacting his output, that it'd have to result in fewer ABs.

 

Given that injury reminder, I think to expect anything more than roughly an .800 OPS is a tad much. However, it should be quite OBP-heavy, which is really what the Cubs needed/wanted anyway. I wonder how much (if any) the elbow concerns will affect him defensively.

[iluvlamp]

Cubs Suck. Just thought I would point that out. Didn't see it anywhere in this thread.

[logan82]

Cubs Suck.

I thought that was common knowlege.