"The Rest Of The Central Hard Pressed To keep Up With Cubs..."

[joepepsi]

JohnBriggs brings up some good points about perspective. Something that haunts me is the likelihood that Prince, Hart, and Braun will all repeat their performance. As talented as these hitters are it's no out of the realm of possibility that they each just had the best seasons of their careers. Braun and Prince had MVP type years, the kind of seasons very few players even have once. Until there's a track record of these two posting 150 *OPS+ every year, we can't assume it's going to happen. Very few hitters have socked 50 homers in more than one season, and many of those who have just ended up on the "The List".

 

Each of these three could still have very good seasons next year, but also experience a 10-15% drop in production. So are the Brewers strong enough in other areas to compensate?

[Fatter than Joey]

That'd be the bullpen, which has been addressed very well by Melvin.

 

Let's see -- Lost Wise/Villy/CoCo/Linebrink

 

Got -- Riske/Gagne/Torremota/some guy named Randy Choate.

 

I think it's marginally better at the best. I don't think it's shored up by any means.

[patrickgpe]

for the hype that Dice-K got last season, i would atleast have my enthusiasm guarded if I was a cubs fan. He was good in the WBC, but he is going to be facing much better pitching every single day in the bigs. The only players from Japan that was good from the beginning was Ichiro and Nomo and there have been enough of teams that spent large posting fees and contracts to not get much out of it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's marginally better at the best. I don't think it's shored up by any means.

 

I didn't say I think it was 'shored up.' Given that Melvin couldn't do any more than he did to try to retain CoCo, I look at that loss as a given. With that in mind, he's done a very nice job of handling the bullpen.

 

patrick, I didn't think Matsuzaka was that bad in 2007. He seemed to tire in the 2nd half, but there are plenty of pitchers that run into that.

[Fatter than Joey]

With that in mind, he's done a very nice job of handling the bullpen.

 

Well he has done stuff -- I guess "very nice" is to be determined http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

FtJ, with the Vizcaino signing, I feel much more comfortable with our/my "very nice" term. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

FtJ, with the Vizcaino signing, I feel much more comfortable with our/my "very nice" term.

 

Fair enough -- DM needs to hit the off button though now on signing more $3.5 BP arms.

[Tbadder]

Starting pitching? I don't think so. That'd be the bullpen, which has been addressed very well by Melvin.

I just can't agree here TooLiveBrew. It's my impression that the starters burned out the relieving corp. I see the starters as the first domino in the bullpen's problems. Now, the reality is that maybe we got Yosted here. That a better manager would've got more innings outta his starters and not panicked. But I take your point, and I can't deny that it maybe more salient.

[Ennder]

Something that haunts me is the likelihood that Prince, Hart, and Braun will all repeat their performance. As talented as these hitters are it's no out of the realm of possibility that they each just had the best seasons of their careers.

 

What they might lose in HR's etc they probably gain back with better BB ratios, situational hitting, fielding etc. It is pretty rare for a top end prospect to have his best year at that early of an age.

 

We also have plenty of growth in other areas, Gallardo for a full year, Villanueva starting all year hopefully, Hall rebounding some, Kendall rebouding and beating Estrada's anemic play last year, Braun playing a full season, Sheets posibly improving on last year, Capuano or Bush reverting to 2006 numbers as the #5 starter. Parra or a Bray type from AAA becoming strong bullpen arms. Any of the many bullpen arms we picked up reverting to their better stats from previous years. Weeks exploding into his potential.

 

It isn't like there isn't an upside for every downside. The team could see massive improvement or marginal improvement but I do think this is a better team than last year. I just don't see the point in assuming all of our guys will regress and the Cubs young players and Fuku will all come and be all stars instantly which is what it seems like people are suggesting.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just can't agree here TooLiveBrew. It's my impression that the starters burned out the relieving corp. I see the starters as the first domino in the bullpen's problems. Now, the reality is that maybe we got Yosted here. That a better manager would've got more innings outta his starters and not panicked. But I take your point, and I can't deny that it maybe more salient.

 

Good point here on the SP-to-RP domino effect, Tbadder. Any way you slice it, if you have SP that can't routinely get you 6+ IP in a game, and your INF defense is shoddy, you have to have a strong bullpen. And, imho, any way you slice it (as long as that includes that Melvin could have done nothing more to sign CoCo), our bullpen is much improved from last year.

 

I just don't see the point in assuming all of our guys will regress and the Cubs young players and Fuku will all come and be all stars instantly which is what it seems like people are suggesting.

 

Precisely - find a happy-ish medium. The blabber about the Cubs being top dogs is nothing more than that, and it's basically based upon assumptions including Ennder's point here. The teams are still very close.

[pogokat]

Johnbriggs:

 

You state:

 

"Right or wrong it is the consensus outside of Wisconsin that:"

 

A. The Cubs have improved and are willing to do what it takes to stay on top in this division and are odds on favorite.

 

which i responded to by saying that that was not the national perception based on the fact that i don't live in wisconsin, nor do any of the other 9 million people in georgia...

 

you then said

 

"What does anyone know of anything outside of college football in Georgia? "

 

which is sophmoric at best and makes me look a lot less favorably at your opinions...

 

so, i guess what you are trying to say is:

 

outside of wisconsin=chicago

 

everywhere else= the sticks

 

people from the sticks= rubes

 

rubes opinion on sports= irrelevant

 

chicago= center of opinionated world

 

 

 

screw college football...and thanks for dismissing me because i'm from georgia

[Brewtacular]

Stupid SEC

[joepepsi]

I just don't see the point in assuming all of our guys will regress and the Cubs young players and Fuku will all come and be all stars instantly which is what it seems like people are suggesting.

I'm not suggesting that. I agree with you the team looks to be improved. I just pointing out Prince and Braun specifically had amazing seasons. Given their young ages it's easy for us fans to make the assumption they put in seasons like this over the next several years. I sure hope they do, but it would be remarkably unusual if they did .

[TooLiveBrew]

pogpwned?

[brewtank34]

The NL Central has definitely been busy this offseason. I don't care about financially keeping up with the Cubs. I'm more worried about the competition. The Cubs got better, the Reds got better, the Astros definitely just got a lot better with obtainnig Tejada and Valverde. The Cardinals can still be a nightmare any given night and the Pirates are just going to suck really bad. I foresee another year of 83-89 Wins will get the division, and this is due to the competition. I'm already getting psyched for opening day.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I kind of feel that the Cubs have improved a bit, the Brewers have gotten back to where they where at the end of the last season with the bullpen retooling or perhaps a bit better overall in the pen. The Reds have gotten better by strengthening their weakest spot (bullpen). The Astros have addressed the offense, and bullpen, for which I think they are now better, but still have nothing for a rotation. The Pirates, are along way off yet from competing. The Cards might struggle to compete next year too, but they do have some decent pieces left in that any team with Pujols, should not be overlooked.

 

Again, I think the Brewers need to make another big move (Rolen or similiar) to upgrade themselves from last year. I kind of am sensing though that the NL might start to see a shift of power a bit toward the NL Central. A few years ago the NL West was the laughing stock of the league as the NL Central was last year. I can see that changing in the next few years where the NL Central has three teams with records over .500.

[Ennder]

For what it is worth here are the baseball forecaster projections for the Brewers and Cubs rotation.

 

Hill - 3.63 ERA

Zambrano - 4.01 ERA

Lilly - 4.23 ERA

Marquis - 4.87 ERA

Dempster - 4.72 ERA (as closer, probably higher as starter)

Marshall - 4.59 ERA

 

Gallardo - 3.47 ERA

Sheets - 3.88 ERA

Villanueva - 4.10 ERA (as RP, probably little higher as SP)

Suppan - 4.25 ERA

Capuano - 4.28 ERA

Bush - 4.34 ERA

Vargas - 4.57 ERA

 

We have just as good SP already as the Cubs, the defense did us in somewhat but we also had bad luck in there. If we get a league average 3B and move Braun to LF my money is on us having a lower ERA by starter than the Cubs next season. The bullpen isn't as lopsided as people make it look either, Marmol's skills did not support his ERA last season, they have the edge in bullpen but it isn't huge.

 

(I'd love to add Bedard don't get me wrong, this was just in answer to the generic posts about our pitching).

 

I still feel our lineup is better than the Cubs too, Weeks is more likely to explode this year than Fuku, Pie and Soto both are going to take time to grow and Theriot is a gaping hole at SS. The division can go either way but I hardly see a reason to think the Cubs are somehow a step above the Brewers.

[rotoherb]

wow, that projection for Zambrano is a little out there. They're projecting him to have the worst season of his career. I think James has him projected somewhere around a 3.50 ERA for next season.

[Ennder]

wow, that projection for Zambrano is a little out there. They're projecting him to have the worst season of his career. I think James has him projected somewhere around a 3.50 ERA for next season.

 

Zambrano has regressed 3 years in a row now and his stats completely support the regression. He is getting fewer ground balls, more BB's and fewer K's. Classic picture of a pitcher who had his arm abused at a young age. Bill James is terrible at pitching stats btw, he doesn't actually do them himself because he doesn't believe you can project pitching.

[rotoherb]

hey, I hope that projection is correct, and I agree that Zambrano has fallen off recently. You just don't see many 27 year olds get projected for their worst season. Zambrano had a 3.84 ERA in the second half of the season last year. I think I'd be a little more conservative and project something around there rather than over 4.00. But again, I hope that projection is correct.

[derflotr]

As long as the Cubs continue to underachieve (the way I see it) like they did last year I won't mind.

 

I don't think 85 wins will be enough to win the division next year.

 

Yes, Gagne is a bit of a health gamble, but writing off the entire team because they signed one of the most successful closers in recent history for a few extra bucks in a one-year deal? Ridiculous!

[TooLiveBrew]

You just don't see many 27 year olds get projected for their worst season. Zambrano had a 3.84 ERA in the second half of the season last year.

 

Well that's because you don't see many 27-y-o's whose peripheral numbers take consistent dives for a couple years in a row. Checking the projections for 2007, they picked Zambrano to regress again, and were still too conservative - as in, he was worse than projected. Judging from the projections for 2008, I don't see any reason to think they're anything but accurate estimates.

[Oldcity]

And to add, you don't see many 27 year olds with the number of innings under their belts already as Zambrano has (likely the cause for the declining periphs, obviously).

[TooLiveBrew]

Right on. Luckily for Cra-Z, he came along just late enough (after Wood/Prior + Baker) to keep his arm attached to his shoulder. For some reason, I still expect him to bounce back in 2008, but I felt that way about 2007.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I did not read the article but we did finish second to the Cubs last year and we have not made any upgrades this year. In fact, as of right now, we don't have a reliable closer like we did last year. Throw in the fact that we still don't have a LF and we are tinkering with another infielder being moved to the outfield which frankly will take a period of adjustment and I can argue that at best we will have the same number of wins as last year. The Cubs and Astros have improved. How much? I don't know but we can't count on just improvement from our young players. For the most part last year we were healthy aside from the annual injury problems of one Ben Sheets. Whose to say we will be injury free this year as other than some starting pitching I don't think our depth is very good. However, its still early though and I wouldn't be surprised to see some of our starting pitching go in an effort to upgrade our lineup. I forsee two out of the following three to go (Vargas, Bush, Z.Jackson) for a solid on-base outfielder like A. Ethier.