"The Rest Of The Central Hard Pressed To keep Up With Cubs..."

[Crew2323]

That's according to John Donovan. While I understand that signing Fukudomiensongis is a good move for them, does it really make them that much better than the Crew?

 

SI.com Article

[monty57]

I can't get the article to come up for some reason, but I will finish the statement in my own word "...when it comes to spending." It's likely that Lee, Soliano, Zambrano, Ramirez & Fukudome will make more than the entire Brewers roster this year.

 

Right now, the Brewers are in a good situation with a lot of highly talented, low priced players. It should be a competitive race this season. However, if this trend continues, it will be very hard for the Brewers to remain competitive year in and year out.

[Bring Back the Stein]

I wish I could exhume Harry Caray's corpse for the joy of hearing him try to pronounce Fukudome. At least there's Santo. He's corpse-like.

[TerraceReserved]

Ugh. That's why I avoid reading baseball stuff from SI or ESPN (outside of Neyer and Gammons maybe), eccspecially about big market teams like the Cubs and Yanks. The way he just dismisses the Brewers is ridiculous. Sure Fukodome is an improvement, but not by any means enough to win the division.

They still could use another reliable starting pitcher. Their bullpen needs some straightening out.

Huh. Seems like the Brewers have 7 capable starting pitchers. Our bullpen has also been revamped by DM already, with 4 new arms including a replacement for Coco.

And, remember, this is the Central. It's not as if the rest of the division is all that threatening.

Now this really bugs me. Sure the Central as a whole is weak, but thats just terrible writing. The Brewers certainly are very threatening to the Cubs, and in my mind are a better team. Homerism aside, that's what I really beleive.

how bad was the Brewers' decision to give Eric Gagne $10 million for one season of closing? He had a 6.57 ERA in 26 appearances in the second half of '07.

A couple things wrong with that. ERA is a terrible stat for releivers, and he's using it over a sample of 24 innings to make a point.

Then he goes on to bring up their big hitters of Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano. He just completely ignores that we have Hart - who hit better than Soriano. Prince and Braun are both better hitters than Lee and Ramirez. And thats not to mention Rickie, who was the best hitter the last half of the year in the NL.

[fondybrewfan]

Well I guess we still get to be an underdog. Thats good for motivation I guess. I think the Cubs are good no doubt about it. But there is no way that they are just so much better than us that we aren't even threatening? They won the division by a whopping 2 games last year, their only notable pick up is Fukodome, all their other stars are already at the ceiling, while we revamped our bullpen and nearly our entire lineup has not yet reached their prime. THat sounds pretty threatening to me. I think the Cubs and Brewers will be in a fight the whole year, no one is going to blow anyone else away

[Ennder]

Most sports writers have a pretty narrow view on what they write about, even the good ones. I was just reading thehardballtimes round table article and they were mentioning the pitching talent in the NL central and they say that the Reds are the only team that has improved at all. How the Brewers can get a full year out of gallardo and a revamped bullpen, probably Villanueva as a starter as well and not be improved is beyond me, just an extra half year of Gallardo replacing Vargas is a pretty nice improvement.

 

They also said that the Cubs had the only pitching that wasn't below average in the NL Central last season even though they had just posted the Brewers with a 101 ERA+... which is slightly above average.

[SmartBall]

I don't worry about it, the guy is obviously an idiot. He decided he was gonna write an article on the Cubs and he picked his way through facts until his article sounded somewhat well researched. He hardly mentioned the Crew except for the Gagne signing which could be good or it could be awful, either way its only for a year. The fact that he spends more time talking about the 'Stros than the Crew tells you all you need to know about how clueless he is.

[Fear The Chorizo]

anything written proclaiming the division crown to any team 4 months before their season starts shouldn't even be read. How'd SI's 2004 cover story work out for them, after proclaiming the Cubs world series champs?

 

Articles like this are written to try and drum up reader interest - anything that links the Cubs to winning is an obvious home-run to a writer, since 2008 marks the 100th anniversary of their last world series title.

 

regarding the Cubs' acquisitions to "bolster" their roster, I'll hold off on viewing Fukudome as the next Ichiro until I see him play at least a month of major league baseball. 48 million is a lot of money to spend on a guy with zero MLB experience, no matter how great he was in Japan (was never considered as sure of a thing as Ichior or Matsui). They dealt away Jacque Jones, who actually helped them down the stretch, and appear ready to hand the everyday CF job to Pie, who hasn't shown anything in the majors offensively to this point. Their bullpen looks solid, but that normally turns out to be a jinx, with how volatile relief pitching is. other than that, they pretty much have the same roster as they did last season - one that the Brewers would have taken the division from easily if Sheets could stay healthy.

 

I could care less what baseball reporters think and project - reporters are supposed to write about what's happened, and I don't think that requires a crystal ball.

 

how do I think the NL central race shapes up? ask me after teams leave spring training, when all the moves have been made, rosters are set, and injuries are accounted for. at that point, i'll still tell you that I have no idea, because baseball has a way of spanking people and teams who think they have it figured out.

[naivin]

By many account Fukudome projects as a nice player, but truthfully may be little more than a modest upgrade over Jones and Floyd - at least offensively. Certainly defensively it would appear he will make them better. I'd be willing to bet that the writer along with 95% of Cub fans who are all excited about the signing have never even seen video on the guy. Opinions are mixed at best. While everyone seems to agree he will be a decent player, many feel he will be nothing more than that, and nobody seems to think he will be a real star. If they don't do anything more to address CF, they could have a real problem there. Again, Pie will be good defensively, but at this point it appears more likely that he will not be able to hit LH pitching in particular, than it does that he will develop the ability to hit them.

 

Again this year it will come down to what they do with Soriano. If they keep in the the lead off spot, they will continue to have trouble scoring runs consistently. The other problem they have is that if they do move him down, he typically seems to struggle because he's a free swinger plain and simple, and refuses to do any sort of situational hitting.

[monty57]

Sure Fukodome is an improvement, but not by any means enough to win the division.

 

TR, while I too believe that the Brewers have a good shot at winning the Central, as to the above quote, the Cubs did win the division this season, and with the addition of Fukudome should be a better team this year. The Brewers young players should improve, but Braun & Fielder could very easily regress somewhat from the unbelievable offensive years they had. They also could be better in the bullpen, at catcher and in LF, but they could also be worse. I think it's going to be a close race this year.

 

As for the Central, it's probably the weakest division in baseball, so I'm not too upset by the statement. If they want to shed that title, the teams in the Central need to win more games this year. The Cardinals are in rebuilding mode, the Pirates are always in rebuilding mode, the Astros have one pitcher on their roster, and whichever of the Reds, Cubs and Brewers wins 86 games ought to win the division.

 

Let's just say that if the Brewers were in any other division in baseball, they'd have much less of a chance of making the playoffs.

[fondybrewfan]

I think the Brewers and Cubs are both more than capable of winning 90 games next year. The Crew has more experience and the Cubs have a ton of talent. I could see Houston, St Louis, and Pittsburgh being absolutely terrible but I think the top of the division will be much much better.

[TooLiveBrew]

I wish I could exhume Harry Caray's corpse for the joy of hearing him try to pronounce Fukudome. At least there's Santo. He's corpse-like.

 

That nsbb thread I read on the Fukudome signing had more than one post joking about each of your examples. Good call!

[crewcrazy]

John Donovan is the same guy who declared the Brewers "dead" in early September when they were still in first place. He also declared the Phillies and Rockies dead at the same time, but few people could have seen their ascent coming.

 

Because of that article, I have a hard time taking anything he writes too seriously. The fact that this article makes it seem like he views the Astros as the biggest threat to the Cubs in the division pretty much backs up the feelings I had about Donovan's writing.

[joepepsi]

What a dope! The article reads as if Houston is the only threat to the Cubs. It's like he watches ESPN then writes his article.

 

for the record, signing Gagne isn't near as dump as that contract the Reds gave CoCo.

 

In this article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/john_donovan/09/06/padres/index.html he called the Padres a "well rounded team". The Pads finished the league 15th in average, 14th in oba, 11th in slugging.

[GAME05]

I question how much any national sportswriter knows about any team other then the Cubs to begin with. They spend 90% of their time gushing about the AL East, so for teams like the Brewers or Royals or Reds or whomever to get any qualitative assessment I just don't really count on. Plus national guys have to keep up with so much news that I always presume that signees like Riske or upgrading Estrada's 13% CS really ever registers.

 

That being said, I do think the Cubs have the upper-hand in the division so far. I just tend to put more faith in veteran guys like the Cubs have maintaining an even production then the younger guys we have cumulatively improving.

 

The Crew losing CoCo but upgrading the middle part of the bullpen could be called a wash. And the Chubs add Fukudome. Of course I do think it's still going to be a tight race as we see the teams right now, only a couple games separated.

 

And thing is, it's really hard to assess the Brewers at this point. We have no idea what's going to happen with LF/3B, and based on the talent of that player, could completely swing the top team in the division.

 

But an above poster is totally right, lets wait for March to start our guessing, not the middle of the off-season. Heck, at this time last year we still didn't have Suppan.

[TerraceReserved]

Sure Fukodome is an improvement, but not by any means enough to win the division.

 

TR, while I too believe that the Brewers have a good shot at winning the Central, as to the above quote, the Cubs did win the division this season, and with the addition of Fukudome should be a better team this year.

 

 

Poor word choice by me. It came across as saying that the Brewers have the division locked up even with Fukodome on the Cubs. I just disagreed that Fukudome makes them them a better team than us, and I still do. It's better than what they had before no doubt, but its not a huge swing of talent. I think most would agree that our bullpen is better than before, and our rotation is set to be better simply without Vargas in there and full seasons from Yo and Villy and hopefully a healthy Sheets, and although a bit of regression is expected for Braun, we also have other young players still emerging and improving. (Hart, Rickie, JJ)

 

The big difference between the two teams was defense. Going by MGL's superlwts using UZR, the Cubs had over a 100 run advantage on us for defense. By moving Bruan and putting a better defender there (hopefully Hall) can minimize that differential greatly. Our pitching and offense last year were superior to that of Chicago, and if our defense is improved by shifting the guys around we have the better team imho.

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Right or wrong it is the consensus outside of Wisconsin that:

 

A. The Cubs have improved and are willing to do what it takes to stay on top in this division and are odds on favorite.

 

and

 

B. The Brewers are worse now because they are minus Cordero, Jenkins, Mench, Linebrink, and Estrada and their replacements of Gagne, Riske, and Kendall (Jenkins hasn't been replaced) are not as good. I didn't say I agree with that but it's the how others perceive the Brewer offseason so far. Turnbow is a laughing stock too so when the GM is quoted saying "he's the closer", it doesn't look good. Jenkins for all his failings, is a name that fans around the country know. That the Brewers let him go is seen as a negative.

 

Not only that, the Cubs since late June were 10 games better than the Brewers and what makes anyone think that will change?

 

Now it's tough to argue that. As Brewer fans, we think that having Gallardo and Villanueva in the rotation from the beginning along with a healthy Sheets should make the rotation better. And that Weeks' yearend surge is a sure sign that he's ready for a breakout season. And Corey Hart is just tapping into stardom.

 

But though Gallardo has some respect nationally, Villanueva remains a virtual unknown. Weeks is perceived as somewhat of a bust and to non Brewer fans its Corey Who?

 

All the focus on Braun's defensive shortcomings that were brought to the surface with the Rolen rumors didn't help things either. Instead of talking about the astounding offensive production from the rookie of the year, even some Brewer fans think Braun at third base is a disaster.

[pogokat]

Coming from someone in georgia, i can safely say that your assumptions are incorrect...everyone i've talked to down here is in awe of braun and fielder, has never heard of jenkins...thinks gagne just won a cy young, and that the cubs just wasted 50 million on some guy with a funny last name...

 

so, what i think you mean by the national perception is really just some kind of bizarro homerism where everything is actually worse than it seems

[TooLiveBrew]

the Cubs did win the division this season, and with the addition of Fukudome should be a better team this year.

 

Except that Marquis and Lilly had fluky good years in 2007, and Ryan Dempster is going to be in the rotation next year. That rotation is not pretty unless they can upgrade with at least one SP.

 

Fukudome is the lone positive step the Cubs have made from 2007 to 2008 (with the full-time addition of Pie to their OF also a possibility), while the Brewers have many - some purely in terms of guys being with the team for full seasons (YoGa, Braun), or joining the starting rotation full-time (Villanueva), and some are from player acquisitions (Riske, Gagne, Torres).

 

Right now the smart money is on the Brewers, imho.

[Tbadder]

I gotta respectfully disagree guys. The Brewers have failed to address their two biggest weaknesses as yet--starting pitching and defense. Their situational offense is a tick better with Kendall, but that's about it. Is the bullpen imporved? I don't know. Coco certainly is better than any of the four we acquired. Mota may even be a step backward from Linebrink/Wise/etc. Will the extra depth equal more production? Right now, if I had to guess, I'd say yes, the pen will be a little better next year. But this is still the team that tanked a big lead, in the worse division in baseball, to a team that is the poster boy for pathetic franchises.

 

Now, will they be better because of a full year of Gallardo, a well-placed Villanueva (the guy who decided to put him in the pen last year needs to be fired), and a break out year from Rickie. Is that enough to offset the improvement of the Cubs and Reds--I think not. Now, the off-season is far from over, but if they don't address those two problems (SP and defense) were looking at third place, and a lot of finger pointing. Sheets can't be counted on; Soup is what he is--an average pitcher who eats innings; Bush/Vargas/Cappy are all the same mediocre #5 pitchers that a team like the Brewers can't afford to carry. So we're pinning our hopes on a couple of young guys to put us over the top? I just don't get it. I can hope, but it seems less than realistic.

 

I might go even further and say the Brewers will never be a serious contenders (though they could be an entertaining .500 club or slightly above) with Hardy at short, Braun at third, and Hall in centerfield. Kendall doesn't appear to be the answer, though he might be a small improvement. Every team has holes; I understand that. But interior defense just can't be ignored, or made up with big bats. While someone may make the case that Hardy's bat makes up for his defense the same can't be said for C, CF, and 2B (right now, I suspect Rickie will turn that around this year).

 

The starters absolutely fried the bullpen last year, and the defense absolutely destroyed the starters. Our incremental improvements are not enough to truly make us a threat.

 

That's why I'd like to go get Bedard. I'd make Hardy/Parra the cornerstone of the trade and then I'd sign Evertt. Of course the Twinkies beat us to the punch.

 

And for all the talk of moving Braun, which is an absolute necessity, he still isn't in the outfield. Blalock isn't going to help the defense that much, not like Rolen, so why not just move Hall back to third and admit to our mistake. We score enough runs to win the world series I don't think putting Gwynn in center will tank our chances.

 

Sorry for the rambling. Brewers in 3rd for now, until Dougie does his magic.

[Fatter than Joey]

for the record, signing Gagne isn't near as dump as that contract the Reds gave CoCo.

 

In 2012 you are probably right -- but in 2008 CoCo is a huge improvement for the Reds over what the Brewers get with Gagne.

 

Except that Marquis and Lilly had fluky good years in 2007,

 

Marquis probably you are right -- Lilly is a solid pitcher, that is finally playing in front of a better defense, and not facing the Yankees and the Red Sox every other series.

 

Fukudome is the lone positive step the Cubs have made from 2007 to 2008

 

It's a big one -- they have also dumped Kendall -- and they were a better team going into 2008. Soriano, Lee and Ramirez missed 70 games last year as well -- if those guys can be on the field more I think the Brewers are in trouble -- especially if the Cubs are able to get another arm for their rotation.

[JohnBriggs12]

Coming from someone in georgia, i can safely say that your assumptions are incorrect...everyone i've talked to down here is in awe of braun and fielder, has never heard of jenkins...thinks gagne just won a cy young, and that the cubs just wasted 50 million on some guy with a funny last name...

 

so, what i think you mean by the national perception is really just some kind of bizarro homerism where everything is actually worse than it seems

 

What does anyone know of anything outside of college football in Georgia?

 

I live in Chicago area. Down here, the Brewers are yesterday's news. Steve Stone is on record as saying the Cubs basically now own the division and that there are no serious challangers. Some of that is based on Fukodome but not all by a long shot. The feeling is the Cubs have the young players to deal to get better pieces almost anywhere and unlike the Brewers, the Cub young guys (Marshall, Hart, Gallagher, Cedeno, Fuld etc) aren't seen as saviors but instead are viewed as bargaining chips. Behind them if any team is mentioned it's the Reds. The signing of Gagne was completely ignored other than some ridicule at paying $10 million for a guy who failed in Boston. Kendall wasn't highly thought of by Cub fans who saw he couldn't throw out a runner to save his life.

 

Now a lot of that is Chicago homerism (Stone is astute but still a homer) to be sure and I never said I agree with it, but I think that's the perception in most areas.

[Ennder]

Sorry for the rambling. Brewers in 3rd for now, until Dougie does his magic

 

Lets revisit this after the season, I know you are one of the more negative posters on the site but I think it is a huge stretch to think the Reds are now better than the Brewers.

 

The Cubs have only arguably improved over last season. Fuku very well may not outproduce his replacements, in fact if he puts up Hideki Matsui rookie season type numbers he'll be a downgrade. Pie hasn't shown anything at the major league level yet and Soto is not the sure thing all star that people think he is, he is going to have his slumps his rookie year. I think the Cubs probably win 2 or 3 more than last year but it isn't a slam dunk offseason for them.

 

The Reds added Cordero and have some young guys who may or may not improve.

 

The Brewers revamped the bullpen and have some young guys who may or may not improve.

 

It is pretty hard to look at this offseason and say any of these teams saw major improvements, it is going to depend on how much the young players grow and how healthy the teams stay.

[Tbadder]

You know, I agree with you in that I am precieved as a "negative poster." Don't know where that comes from. I am the one who said I wouldn't trade our everyday line up for any other in baseball. I do think that I try to see things in the clear light of day. I try not to be a homer, even while I give my full support to the Crew.

 

Now having said that. I agree with your assessment. It could be that the Cubs and Reds aren't that strong. It is a plauisible possibility and maybe more accurate than my own. However, I am the kind of guy, who if he were a GM, I'd tend to overestimate my opponent, so that I keep myself on my toes, always striving, always looking to get better.

 

Not to say that Melvin doesn't do that. I like him, especially given his limited resources.

[TooLiveBrew]

I gotta respectfully disagree guys. The Brewers have failed to address their two biggest weaknesses as yet--starting pitching and defense.

 

Starting pitching? I don't think so. That'd be the bullpen, which has been addressed very well by Melvin.

 

I live in Chicago area. Down here, the Brewers are yesterday's news. Steve Stone is on record as saying the Cubs basically now own the division and that there are no serious challangers. Some of that is based on Fukodome but not all by a long shot.

 

Luckily, perception does not equal reality. If you/they think the Reds are a more potent team than us at this point, 2008 is going to be very surprising. Just because people repeat something over and over doesn't make it true. Any honest & well-informed Cubs fan will tell you that it's probably going to be a 2-horse race again. Both the Cubs & Crew look to be roughly 90-win caliber squads.

 

The feeling is the Cubs have the young players to deal to get better pieces almost anywhere and unlike the Brewers, the Cub young guys (Marshall, Hart, Gallagher, Cedeno, Fuld etc) aren't seen as saviors but instead are viewed as bargaining chips.

 

Outside of Marshall, I don't know if there's much value (perhaps Fuld). Even with the Mitchell Report (which may or may not kill the Cubs' love of Brian Roberts), I don't see how they could net Roberts with that group. Especially Cedeno - his stick is simply anemic.