Gywnn/Dillon platoon in LF, keep Braun at 3rd base...would that make sense?

[I Heart Brewers]

Friend of mine doesn't like the idea of trading for a 3rd baseman and moving Braun to LF. His logic is that Hall struggled offensively when moved to the OF and Braun would do the same. I say Billy isn't even in the same area code as far as hitting prowess so it shouldn't be an issue (okay a bit of hyperbole, but you get my point).

 

He would like a Gywnn/Dillon platoon with Braun at 3rd. That doesn't sound appealing to me for the simple reason that I don't like Gywnn's bat at all. Also, Gywnn's range would be wasted in LF.

 

What are your thoughts?

[zzzmanwitz]

I'm not sure how long this thread will stay open... but we'll see.

 

I think the Brewers would be fine with a strict platoon in LF, but with Gross and Dillon, not Gywnn. Gywnn is at best a 5th OF on this team. Gross and Dillon could put up a line of .280/.350/.450/.800 and that would be servicable in LF. Their defense should also be above average. That being said, with the ridiculous amount of Major League ready starters and a bullpen that is pretty much full, I can't see this team not making another move. Now, if that move is for a LF, 3B, or prospects is still up for grabs, but its safe to say the Brewers roster is not set yet.

[And That]

Any scenario that ends up with "Ryan Braun at third base" is not an acceptable scenario. It's been talked about to death on here, but Braun's defensive limitations (I hesitate to even call them limitations, that would make it seem like some defensive talent there was being limited) keep him from being as valuable as he could to the Brewers. And Gwynn is a terrible hitter, so... except for Gwynn starting in LF and Braun at third, this would be the worst case option for the Brewers.

[trwi7]

The only value Gwynn would bring starting is his defense in CF and your friend wants to move him to the easiest defensive position on the diamond making him worth nothing?

[monty57]

I would have to say that if a 3B/LF isn't found in the trading market, the LF platoon would be Gross / Dillon rather than Gwynn / Dillon. With the Brewers' need to divest themselves of excess starting pitchers, I think that the odds are pretty high that a trade will be made. I won't wager a bet on whether it will be a 3B or a LF that's picked up, so Braun may indeed man 3B next season.

 

Gwynn's name has been thrown around in trade rumors. I'd say that if Gwynn gets any substantial playing time next season, it will be for another team, as he's at best a 5th OF for the Brewers right now behind Hall, Hart and the Gross / Dillon platoon. If we pick up a 3B, I doubt Gwynn will even break camp with the Brewers.

[I Heart Brewers]

The only value Gwynn would bring starting is his defense in CF and your friend wants to move him to the easiest defensive position on the diamond making him worth nothing?

 

I agree and really just posted this to come up with more ammo for my argument. He is in love with TGJ and doesn't want Braun moved. I'm attempting to sway him but even logic seems to elude him.

 

I understand this has been debated to death, but this one is by far the worst option and I am fired up trying to calmly tell him so.

[zzzmanwitz]

Again, I really think with time Braun will become a decent fielding 3rd baseman. The problem is we have a chance to win now and don't really have time for him to work out the kinks. He will be better than last year. Remeber, this is really only the 3rd year he has played Third Base in his baseball career. He was a SS in college.

[radman12484]

Wasn't Corey Hart drafted as a 3rd baseman? Just an idea, I know he can play 3rd.

[endaround]

Hart was drafted to play 1B. His time at 3B moved him to the outfield.

[igor67]

Something to keep in mind in regards to Braun would be that his BB/K numbers and BABIP strongly hint that his is due for a slump in production next year, so regardless of position his offensive output probably won't be quite so high next year, which is OK because he can regress and still be an excellent offensive player.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

His logic is that Hall struggled offensively when moved to the OF and Braun would do the same.

 

That isn't really logic at all, it's extrapolation based on one data point. In 5 minutes, I thought of 3 players who pulled off the 3B to LF switch and hit the same or better the next year:

 

Player................Year.....Previous OPS+.....OPS+.....Change

Chipper Jones.....'02............160..................153............-7

Gary Sheffield.....'94............120...................145...........+25

Kevin Mitchell.....'89............121...................192...........+71

 

But that table doesn't represent logic or reasoning either, it's just another set of datapoints. Hall may have hit less well because he was distracted by the demands of his new defensive position (that's certainly the narrative nearly everyone used to explain/excuse his hitting struggles), or he may have just had a down year, or he may have hit insanely over his head the previous two seasons.

 

Let's say Braun does switch positions. He'll hit the same, hit better, or hit worse. And the mainstream media will likely construct a narrative that explains whichever of those outcomes actually occurs in terms of the defensive switch, as if there's any real reason for supposing a causal relationship. I vaguely remember a bunch of sportswriters attempting to "explain" Kevin Mitchell's out-of-nowhere MVP season by appealing to the decreased defensive demands of his new, permanent position as the Giants regular LF (He'd played some outfield before, but then, so had Hall). If Mitchell's hitting had collapsed, the same writers would doubtless have blamed the position switch for his struggles.

 

The issue for the Brewers front office ought to be how best to align their defenders in order to allow them to succeed at playing defense. If that means half the team has to learn a new position, so be it. They shouldn't worry about potential effects on any Braun's offense any more than they'd worry if learning a new position would wreak havoc on his love life. And they shouldn't let the "We don't want to move Billy two years in a row" stuff get in the way either. Does anybody really think that stance is indicative of Melvin's concern for Hall's career? If he was worried about that, he'd have left him at SS or traded him to a team that could use a SS. Not wanting to admit you made a mistake is a lousy reason for sticking with a dumb decision, particularly when it's preventing you from doing something that would rather obviously help the team. Oh well, we're only human.

[TerraceReserved]

Brawndo, great post. You summed up my exact feeling on this matter better than I could have expressed it. If switching the guys around the field can save us 3-5 wins, you have to do it. No matter what.

[Baldkin]

1) If Tony Gwynn, Jr was named Richard Smith, no one would want him playing anywhere.

 

The fact that his dad was great doesn't make him great. Name 5 above average son's of former players. No, The Boone's don't count.

 

2) Gross would play ahead of Gwynn, no matter what.

 

3) Hall's struggles at the plate were as much because he played 2 months on an ankle he couldn't plant on than anything else.

[mothershipconnection]

The fact that his dad was great doesn't make him great. Name 5 above average son's of former players.

 

Bonds

Prince

Griffey Jr.

Moises Alou

Roberto Alomar

Robinson Cano

Robb Nen

Cal Ripken

Jason Kendall

Nick Swisher

[jason21nl]

1) If Tony Gwynn, Jr was named Richard Smith, no one would want him playing anywhere.

 

The fact that his dad was great doesn't make him great. Name 5 above average son's of former players. No, The Boone's don't count.

 

2) Gross would play ahead of Gwynn, no matter what.

 

3) Hall's struggles at the plate were as much because he played 2 months on an ankle he couldn't plant on than anything else.

 

 

Prince Fielder, Ken Griffey Jr, Moises Alou, Cal Ripken Jr. Barry Bonds, Sandy and Roberto Alomar...they all come to mind

 

[twobrewers]

Gwynn isn't good enough to start.

 

If Dillon is getting any starts - it should be at 3B.

 

Moving Braun to the OF and starting Dillon at 3B makes way more sense.

[zzzmanwitz]

Moving Braun to the OF and starting Dillon at 3B makes way more sense.

 

The only problem with this is you want Braun in the lineup everyday. If you do a platoon of Gross and Dillon, you would have to switch Braun back and forth between 3rd and LF. If you are saying play Dillon everyday, I don't agree. Dillon is good, but he's a bench player or a platoon guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

The platoon idea with current players is a last resort. But if it came to that, I'd prefer Gwynn over Gross. Look Gwynn is not his dad. But he does bring something to the table especially on defense.

 

Gross was somewhat of a butcher in the OF and when he was used in a platoon late in the year, his offensive production dropped after two weeks of steady play. He's useful, but as a backup corner guy.

 

Gwynn would give speed to the lineup. If he batted 2nd, ahead of Braun and Fielder, he'd see fastballs almost exclusively and I think he'd hit close to .300. He wouldn't walk much because he's not a power threat and pitchers will come right after him. But with a .300 BA, it doesn't take many walks to get that OBP to respectable .340-.350 level.

 

If you dropped him down to 8th ahead of the pitcher, I doubt he'd hit more than .270 or so. But his speed is still useful in that spot too.

 

Finally, if he failed, you could always go back to Gross who's a more known quantity. Conversely if Gross were to fail, then you're option is Gwynn. I like it better the other way around.

[endaround]

1) Gross is fine in the field. There is no real proof that Gwynn is this defensive god outside of the fact he can't hit and is fast.

 

2) Gross isn't slow and the lineup is already plenty fast that speed is hardly a concern. And Gwynn would likely still be the 4th or 5th fastest player anyway.

 

3) Gwynn didn't break a 340 OBP in AAA last season and is unlikely to give you more than .330

[Ennder]

Something to keep in mind in regards to Braun would be that his BB/K numbers and BABIP strongly hint that his is due for a slump in production next year, so regardless of position his offensive output probably won't be quite so high next year, which is OK because he can regress and still be an excellent offensive player.

 

His MLE's strongly suggest that the BB/K numbers will improve and mostly offset the BABIP dip. Shandler still has himd own for .302 AVG and .947 OPS. His skills fully supported a .300 AVG in the 2nd half last year.

[hauser42]

Something to keep in mind in regards to Braun would be that his BB/K numbers and BABIP strongly hint that his is due for a slump in production next year, so regardless of position his offensive output probably won't be quite so high next year, which is OK because he can regress and still be an excellent offensive player.

His MLE's strongly suggest that the BB/K numbers will improve and mostly offset the BABIP dip. Shandler still has himd own for .302 AVG and .947 OPS. His skills fully supported a .300 AVG in the 2nd half last year.

People keep posting how Braun is going to have a drop off at the plate. Pretty hard to argue that but to think he is going to hit like 280 with 20-25 HRs is not going to happen unless he gets hurt. All you have to think about is how hard he hit every ball last year. His singles and outs were solid smashes of the bat. Braun can hit and he will improve in a lot of his areas yet because he is so young. As Shandler says once you gain a skill you still have it so him hitting .300 and 40 HRs is going to be there for a long time.

[monty57]

Gwynn would give speed to the lineup. If he batted 2nd, ahead of Braun and Fielder, he'd see fastballs almost exclusively and I think he'd hit close to .300. He wouldn't walk much because he's not a power threat and pitchers will come right after him. But with a .300 BA, it doesn't take many walks to get that OBP to respectable .340-.350 level.

 

There are quite a few pitchers in baseball who can throw pitches other than fastballs for strikes. I agree that he has some value to a major league team, mainly as a backup outfielder / defensive replacement / pinch runner. He could even be on the Brewers, but I don't see him getting much playing time. Hart & Hall will play nearly everyday and Melvin has been pretty straightforward in saying he's going to trade for either a LF or a 3B, moving Braun to LF. Barring injury, that's not going to leave much playing time for the backup OF, so I don't see them carrying Gross, Dillon & Gwynn unless they either see Dillon as more of a backup IF, or if they really want to utilize Gwynn as a pinch runner.

 

The one big opening for PT would be if they move Braun to LF and decide to bring in a defensive replacement in the same way they did last year when Braun was at third. Last year, they brought in Counsell. Gwynn would bring better defense in this situation. However, as Counsell coming to the plate after the switch last year probably cost us a couple of games, I may still like putting Gross in as defensive replacement. He plays decent defense and is more of an offensive threat than Gwynn.

 

I think it's likely that Gwynn will be a secondary part of a bigger trade this offseason, as he may provide more value to another team than he does the Brewers.

[TerraceReserved]

Pretty hard to argue that but to think he is going to hit like 280 with 20-25 HRs is not going to happen unless he gets hurt.

 

Who said that? Ennder and igor simply said that his offensive production was most likely gonna decrease a bit, but no one stated 20-25 HR.

[TooLiveBrew]

Something to keep in mind in regards to Braun would be that his BB/K numbers and BABIP strongly hint that his is due for a slump in production next year, so regardless of position his offensive output probably won't be quite so high next year, which is OK because he can regress and still be an excellent offensive player.

 

I agree fully here. The scariest thing to me is the possibility that he could end up playing a full season at 3B. He, quite realistically, might negate the entire offensive value (or more) he produces in 2008 if that's where we slot him on D.

 

Doug & Co.: Please, please, PLEASE get us a solid 3Bman. Please!

[hauser42]

Pretty hard to argue that but to think he is going to hit like 280 with 20-25 HRs is not going to happen unless he gets hurt.

 

Who said that? Ennder and igor simply said that his offensive production was most likely gonna decrease a bit, but no one stated 20-25 HR.

No one stated it but a lot of people are posting like his stats will take a big hit. I was not callling out any poster.