What happens to Vargas/trade has to happen?

[danzig6767]

Looking at the pitching staff, i have a hard time envisioning a role for Vargas and it looks like a trade to me almost has to happen

 

Sheets/Gallardo/Villanueva/Suppan all seem like locks for the rotation

 

Then you have Capuano/Bush/Parra who all look like a possibility for the 5th starter spot. Parra likely would get sent down unless he has a great spring and forces his way into the rotation. If though there was no trade of Capuano or Bush, Capuano likely enters the rotation as the 5th starter and Bush becomes the long relief guy in the pen. I can't fathom the team having Bush as a long man in the pen and also keeping Vargas in the pen as a second long man at around 4 million dollars or more. So barring a trade of both Capuano and Bush, it would seem Vargas pretty much has to go.

 

What are we going to do with Vargas if Melvin finds very little interest in him around the league? Am i imaging that could happen and there is no doubt Melvin will be able to trade Vargas for at least something half way decent? Can anyone imagine a scenario where Vargas is on the team next year if both Bush/Capuano aren't traded? If neither Bush/Capuano is traded before spring training and Parra throws so well that Melvin/Yost want him in the rotation, wouldn't two of Vargas/Bush/Capuano have to be traded?

 

I see four guys who could be capable of being the 5th starter, but only Parra can be sent to the minors and only one can be the long relief guy. Unless i'm missing something or viewing this situation poorly, wouldn't a trade almost be a necessity?

[ILuvDaBush]

I would say it is a blessing that we have this problem, but Claudio Vargas definitely has value and would net a decent young nugget if/when Doug sees fit this winter. I should emphasize WHEN, however, as it is inevitable that there is no reason he should fit into our long term plans.

[endaround]

Actually both Capuano and Bush have options remaining though I really don't see either being sent down given their salaries. Before I thought Vargas would be traded for a relief arm. Now I think it will be a relief prospect who would compete for a spot on next years team.

[Dogger192003]

I was also wondering about Vargas the other day, especially after the Brewers have added several BP arms. I thought maybe Vargas would be the type of guy who could actually boost his value by a move to the back end of the bullpen. Now I think Melvin is just going to wait it out as long as he can and get the best deal possible. Maybe even wait for a spring training casualty from another team.

[monty57]

I think some combo of Capuano / Bush / Vargas and prospects will be used to land our 3B / LF, and I agree with you that it is a matter of when it happens rather than if it will happen. If it takes one of them, then the other two will fight it out for the #5 spot & long-reliever. If it takes two of them, then the remaining one & Parra will be #5 / long reliever. I'd guess that Capuano is the most likely to be traded, as it seems he is drawing the most interest. If we're left with Bush & Vargas, it's kind of a crapshoot as to who wins the spot in the rotation, as they both have good and bad things about them.

 

Melvin seems to be looking at a Rolen, Ethier, Kearns style player, that could be a long-term solution. I'd guess if he can't find that, he'll shoot for a one-year stopgap player, even if he's making a lot of money. He'd be off the books after next season and we could hope that LaPorte is ready to step in at that point. It's also possibe that we'd trade for prospects, although that would seem to be a last-case scenario, as Melvin's trying to build a team to win now. I can't imagine a case where nothing is done. Starting pitchers have too much value for no one to make a trade for at least one of these guys.

[endaround]

The Brewers do need prospects though. The entire bullpen is now fairly old and set to turnover completely next year.

[dadofandrew]

Vargas would be the #2/3 best FA SP on the market this offseason. He has a ton of value, though not as much as Capuano or Bush.

[monty57]

The Brewers do need prospects though. The entire bullpen is now fairly old and set to turnover completely next year.

 

I agree. I have no idea what Melvin's plan is for next year's pen, as he went all out finding players with only one year left. He has to have something up his sleeve. I just don't think any Melvin's "chips" are going to be played for prospects until we have a new 3B/LF. While I don't think a Gross / Dillon platoon would be the end of the world, Melvin doesn't seem to be acting like that's going to happen. The signing of Aquino and McClung seem to signify something's going to happen as well... How many pitchers do we need?

[Tbadder]

I'm in agreement as well. The cupboard looks mighty bare after next year--at the major league and minor league levels.

[TURBO]

I'm in agreement as well. The cupboard looks mighty bare after next year--at the major league and minor league levels.

which is why we need to win NOW!

[flosses like fossas]

I would say it is a blessing that we have this problem, but Claudio Vargas definitely has value and would net a decent young nugget if/when Doug sees fit this winter. I should emphasize WHEN, however, as it is inevitable that there is no reason he should fit into our long term plans.

agreed, vargas should be gone soon. this ties right into my 3b/lf dilemma. my preference would be to trade vargas and/or cappy and/or gwynn/gross for prospects and sign a rental to play or platoon left unless we can get a sturdy vet at 3b.

[rousieboy]

Luis Pena is set for the BPen the following year as is Stetter if he doesn't break with the team in '08...

[ILuvDaBush]

The same was said about Roberts and Thatcher for this coming year.

[gregmag]

Do we really need to worry about relief prospects? I love prospects -- I'm one of those guys who, you know, doesn't even care whether the big-league team wins -- but I'm not sure I would worry too much about targeting relief prospects in trades.

 

First of all, there aren't a lot of relief prospects. Most good MLB relievers start out as minor league starters.

 

Second, we do have some pitching in the system, and DM will have a chance to lock up one or more of the rentals if that seems helpful.

 

Third, this offseason proves that you can build what we at least expect to be a decent bullpen on the fly. Why can't we expect DM to do some of the same things next offseason? Really he's doing with the BP what he's always done, except this year he's doing it at a higher price level, which reflects the team's contending status, its needs in the BP, and the cost savings of having young players in other key roles.

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

There are still a lot of good relief candidates out there, many were non-tendered. Few have high ceilings like Gagne and Riske, but they could easily be 3.50 ERA guys.

[twobrewers]

Do we really need to worry about relief prospects?

I agree. Generally pitching prospects are starters. If they are already pitching relief in the minors...

 

But we do have a glut of starting pitching. Bush, Capuano and Vargas will not all be on the opening day roster. Unless we are able to acquire Rolen - we might very well end up trading for a few "prospects". I however, do not think out cupboard is bare at all. We are weak at AAA - but that is because all of our young talent is already in MLB. But the Brewers are going to be pretty well stocked at AA and lower. (I think we have quite a few arms that could compete in the next few years. Rogers, Tyson, Jeffress, Bryson etc.)

 

I wonder if we could do a prospect upgrade. Say we trade Escobar & Vargas for a A+ prospect.

[dadofandrew]

Prospect for prospect trades occur so rarely they are hardly worth mentioning.

[Brewtacular]

I really wonder what value Vargas has. Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva look to be getting pretty large contracts. Vargas proved he is a `winner` to some. I wonder what value others place upon him vs. our perceived value. In this case I think others may see him as more valuable than the homers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Actually both Capuano and Bush have options remaining though I really don't see either being sent down given their salaries. Before I thought Vargas would be traded for a relief arm. Now I think it will be a relief prospect who would compete for a spot on next years team.

 

I didn't realize Capuano and Bush have options. Having one of those guys working every 5th day at Nashville ready to take over a rotation spot at a moment's notice (when Sheets suffers his first hurt) might be well worth it. Capuano especially has things to work out.

[hauser42]

Vargas doesn't have to be traded, unless he is included in a deal to bring in a 3B/LF guy to fill that void. SP depth is a must for any team and to just send him away for a couple prospects would not be wise at all.

[1992casey]

While Cappy and Bush have options, there's a good chance that they fall into the category where they'd have to pass through waivers for the team to use their options. Unfortunately, the article explaining that weird rule is bookmarked on my computer and I'm not at that machine to locate it right now.

[DHonks]

I see the Brewers sending Vargas and Capuano in a deal that nets us Rolen. I don't know if the Cards need two starters, but in a 3-way trade it could make a lot of sense

[JoeHova]

I hope teams have interest in Vargas but it seems like a lot of guys who are darlings around here (Kinney, Obermueller, etc.) tend to not have as much value as we would like to believe. We're always reading about how such and such a guy would be a great fit for Tampa Bay or KC or some other scrub team when the reality is that they all also have borderline MLBers who might be ok if used in the right spots. Vargas is obviously better than those guys but until I see Vargas get traded for actual value, I will continue to be skeptical. That's not to say that Doug couldn't strike pay dirt with a young guy like he did with Villanueva in the Wayne Franklin trade but that seems kind of random. This is a trade market where Lastings Milledge is only worth an ok platoon guy and a terrible catcher and Miggy Tejada is worth one good prospect and (as Bill Simmons would say) the pu pu platter.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see Vargas bringing anything but his positional equivalent- a guy who isn't the worst guy in MLB but who won't really help you either. Maybe Joe Crede or a scrub of that nature.

 

OTOH, maybe that could work out as a 3 way like DHonks mentioned. Vargas to CHW, Crede & Capuano to STL, Rolen & $$$ to Milwaukee.

[Fatter than Joey]

Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva look to be getting pretty large contracts.

 

As a side note -- The Reds flipped Lohse for Matt Maloney -- I wish the Brewers could pull something like that off.

 

Vargas proved he is a `winner` to some. I wonder what value others place upon him vs. our perceived value. In this case I think others may see him as more valuable than the homers.

 

I think Vargas gets hated on here pretty harshly. I don't think that there is a doubt he has a tangible value. I really don't have a problem with Vargas on our roster as a LR/Spot starter. Our rotation is littered with question marks -- Yo/Villy never have pitched a whole year in the rotation, Sheets is a big question mark -- a little depth wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.