NL Central Frontrunners

[Ennder]

I believe Bailey and Cueto have more upside

 

No one will argue that, but they are so much farther away from there ceiling right now. Bailey walked over 5 batter per 9 innings and Cueto as barely pitched above AA. To say they are going to be better than the Brewers 2 and 3 next season is a bit of a stretch.

 

I'll argue with it, Bailey is not going to be as good as Gallardo, Cueto at least has a chance to be. I also as usual think you are making way too much out of Sheets injury history. He was as durable as Harang was until he got his first real injury. Injuries happen to pitchers and unless they are repeated arm related injuries you can't be too worried about them.

[strawbossisevil]

My Take:

 

Catcher

1. Reds - David Ross

2. Cubs - Geovany Soto

3. Brewers - Jason Kendall

 

Soto should do better than Kendall, but it won't be a significant difference.

 

First Base

1. Brewers - Prince Fielder

2. Cubs - Derrick Lee

3. Reds - Joey Votto

 

Derrick Lee has lost his homerun power. He is solid, but Prince puts up much bigger numbers.

 

Second Base

1. Reds - Brandon Phillips

2. Brewers - Rickie Weeks

3. Cubs - Mark DeRosa

 

Weeks could put up as good a year as Phillips if not better. If he hits like he did the second half of the season, he'll easily be the best on this list.

 

Third Base

1. Cubs - Aramis Ramirez

2. Brewers - Ryan Braun

3. Reds - Edwin Encarnacion

 

Braun is the best offensively, obviously. Aram actually plays defense though, so I think Ramirez is slightly better.

 

Shortstop

1. Brewers - JJ Hardy

2. Reds - Alex Gonzalez

3. Cubs - Ryan Theriot

 

JJ is solid. The other two, not so much.

 

Left Field

1. Cubs - Alfonzo Soriano

2. Reds - Adam Dunn

3. Brewers - Gross/Dillon

 

Brewers need to improve here, and I imagine they will before all is said and done.

 

Center Field

1. Reds - Josh Hamilton

2. Brewers - Bill Hall

3. Cubs - Felix Pie

 

Pie is struggling to hit above the Mendoza line in Winter league. He screams 4A at this point. I really don't see him being a stud player, but he's still young so who knows.

 

Right Field

1. Brewers - Corey Hart

2. Reds - Ken Griffey Jr.

3. Cubs - Kosuke Fukudome

 

Hart provides a collection of stats that few players in the league can. He provides speed and power. His stats were better than Soriano's last year. Fukudome is a wildcard, he could do well, he could struggle. Personally, I'm hoping for the later.

 

#1 Starter

1. Reds - Aaron Harang

2. Brewers - Ben Sheets

3. Cubs - Carlos Zambrano

 

Big Z had a very mediocre season last year, and that could continue this year. He's been abused a lot. Harang is easily #1, as he pitches in GAB and stays healthy.

 

#2 Starter

1. Brewers - Yovanni Gallardo

2. Reds - Bronson Arroyo

3. Cubs - Ted Lilly

 

YoGa is great. Lilly played over his head, and I think Arroyo will rebound some next season.

 

#3 Starter

1. Cubs - Rich Hill

2. Brewers - Carlos Villenueva

3. Reds - Homer Bailey

 

This one is really a wild card. Bailey has the highest ceiling, but Hill and Villenueva will probably put up the better numbers next season.

 

#4 Starter

1. Brewers - Jeff Suppan

2. Cubs - Jason Marquis

3. Reds - Bobby Livingston

 

Marquis is not as good as Suppan.

 

Closer

1. Reds - Francisco Cordero

2. Brewers - Eric Gagne

3. Cubs - Bob Howry

 

A lot here depends on what Gagne we get. He could be close to Cordero, or a bust. Time will tell.

 

Rest of Bullpen

1. Brewers

2. Cubs

3. Reds

 

We have a better bullpen at this point than the Cubs, but its not a huge advantage.

 

Coach

 

I really don't think the coaches will matter much.

 

Offense

1. Brewers (We scored more runs last season, and I don't see that changing)

2. Reds

3. Cubs

 

Pitching

1. Brewers (better rotation, better pen)

2. Cubs

3. Reds

 

Defense

1. Cubs

2. Reds

3. Brewers

 

Outcome

1. Brewers (it's very close though)

2. Cubs

3. Reds

 

This should be a tight race. Very tough to call, and if the Reds pick up a big name pitcher, they'll be right there as well.

[LUKE232323]

People don't think Gallardo is a legit #2? To me, he looked pretty poised last year and his numbers were also nothing to sneeze at for a #2, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA. What percentage of NL teams had a #2 better than that?

[zzzmanwitz]

A lot of Gallardo's time was spent as the stopper last year with Sheets out, and he still put up great numbers. I really don't see Gallardo getting worse, only better.

[Ennder]

Most of the big baseball statistic guys listed Gallardo higher than Bailey as a prospect, he is right up there with Lincecum. Cueto is listed over Bailey by most as well.

[relly582]

Agreed - and not intended to be malicious, but what holes have the Cubs filled aside from LF?

It's called addition by subtraction. Jacque Jones/ Cliff Floyd etc are now gone and we just landed Fukodome which is a type of player the Cubs have sorely missed for a long long time. We are already a different team with the few additions we've made and it has to do with the subtractions. I hope you don't actually believe the Cubs are done this offseason because they aren't. This year the Cubs are being very specific with who/ and what type of players they pick up and this is a major plus towards having Lou Piniella as our manager now.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

I'll argue with it, Bailey is not going to be as good as Gallardo,

 

Most of the big baseball statistic guys listed Gallardo higher than Bailey as a prospect, he is right up there with Lincecum. Cueto is listed over Bailey by most as well.

Yes but most scouts listed Bailey because has the ability to make a radar gun go 98.

Gallardo is the least likely among the three to make an All-Star team in this decade, but he has as good a chance at any at putting together an impressive career. Bailey's stuff is a bit better than what Hughes or Gallardo can offer, so the Reds are dealing with more upside and more risk than the Yankees or Brewers.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hughes-bailey-and-gallardo/

 

[TooLiveBrew]

It's called addition by subtraction. Jacque Jones/ Cliff Floyd etc are now gone and we just landed Fukodome which is a type of player the Cubs have sorely missed for a long long time. We are already a different team with the few additions we've made and it has to do with the subtractions. I hope you don't actually believe the Cubs are done this offseason because they aren't.

Ok, so in answer to 'what holes have you filled aside from [Fukudome's OF spot]?', you reply that you've signed Fukudome? What are these other 'few additions'? Addition by subtraction? Sure, but again, only in relation to signing Fukudome. Without that, you really wouldn't have much (if any) improvement in the corner OF. Fukudome is a great/nice signing, but aside from that, the Cubs haven't done anything of much impact.

 

Nowhere in my post did I imply or assert that I think the Cubs are 'done' this offseason. No team is done making moves yet.

 

This year the Cubs are being very specific with who/ and what type of players they pick up

So are the Brewers. So does any team that's close to contending.

 

People don't think Gallardo is a legit #2? To me, he looked pretty poised last year and his numbers were also nothing to sneeze at for a #2, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA. What percentage of NL teams had a #2 better than that?

 

Generally speaking, players really start to regress once they're on the wrong side of 21. Gallardo being with the team from opening day may well be the biggest area of improvement on the enitre team for 2008.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gallardo and Villanueva have already experienced success in the big leagues, much of it in the heat of a pennant race.

 

Both logged over 110 innings in 07 with ERA's under 4. In fact Gallardo matched ERA's with Red's ace Harang and Villanueva matched ERA's with Cub ace Zambrano.

 

That alone gives them a huge leg up on the Reds young guys at least as far as looking at 2007.

[Tbadder]

Hey, unlike some (and I'm not referring to anyone in particular) I'm open to all possibilities. I could be wrong; it's just how I see it. Some call it pessimissim (thought a few extra letters couldn't hurt), that's certainly a possiblity. The reason I mentioned Gallardo is because I think his greatest assest is his ability to pitch intelligently. I think the number one reason he succeeds is because he pitches like he's spent 10 years in the bigs. As his stuff diminishes, as it inevitably will, he'll be more hittable. Going from 95 to 92 on the radar isn't as profound as going 90 to 87. Pitcher A will be in a better position to compensate than pitcher B. Well, a guy like Bailey just has more wiggle room over his career because his stuff is more electric than Gallard's. Doesn't mean I don't love Gallardo; it just means if anything happens he could tank a lot easier.

 

And the point about the Reds young guys never really proving themselves in the majors is a great point, and one that can't be denied. It's the hole in my argument--I can accept that. But there's holes in everyone's argument, and as long as we're aware of them we don't do our own arguments a disservice.

 

Sheets' non-arm/shoulder injuries are getting in his way of being a difference maker. If he doesn't turn it around he best be sent packing because this will never be a franchise that will stock up on oustanding pitching--it's just too dang expensive. tell me what would be more surprising. Sheets doesn't spend time on the DL or he spends a significant time on the DL. The evidence is in. If he was a fighter he'd be labelled as "stone-fists, glass jaw."

[LUKE232323]

When do you expect Gallardo's stuff to diminish? I mean, the guy is the ripe old age of 22 right now. That argument is curious in my opinion.

[Tbadder]

If something happened. He's 22 and starting to log major innings. With the history of this franchise and what happens to its best pitchers doesn't seem karmic, then, well, I don't know what to say.

 

Again, what would surprise you more. Headline: Yovanni Gallardo wins 19 in only his second year with the Brewers. Or: Tender elbow lands Gallardo on the 15 day DL for the second time.

 

I'd say the later is much more likely, though neither will probably happen.

 

Oh, and "argument" is a really poor choice of words I made. It's sheer supposition, and really only makes the the point that I love upside more than production in a 22 year old. In a 27 year old give me the opposite however.

[LUKE232323]

Not to be rude or anything here, but using an argument that a pitcher will likely get injured because a lot of the organizations prospects have had injury problems is pretty curious. You have to look at the individual, not what has happened with other players all together.

[TURBO]

Coach

 

I really don't think the coaches will matter much.

seriously? I strongly believe that Yost is the reason we didn't make the post season last season.

 

If he doesn't lose us 5-10 games because of stupid game management, we win the central hands down.

 

imo

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Yost is one of many reasons we missed in 2007, for whatever that's worth.

 

The reason I mentioned Gallardo is because I think his greatest assest is his ability to pitch intelligently.

 

Well, that > 90 mph heater and wicked hook may have something to do with it, too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

The Brewers have done a very nice job limiting innings to let Yovanni's arm grow. 2008 is going to be a banner year for him, I think.

[strawbossisevil]

Agree to Disagree on the coaches.

 

Pinella had the folks howling in Chicago a lot this year too. In my opinion, coaches only make mistakes, so most people only see the failures and don't recognize the sucesses.

 

I think the difference between the Brewer and Cub coaches is minimal. And I'm more inclined to think that Ben Sheet's injury and the complete collapse of the starting rotation had more to do with our failing than a decision or two made by Nedly. You've already made perfectly clear how you feel about him, TooLiveBrew, and we've debated this ad nauseum on this subject over the last season. So, we can just agree to disagree and leave it at that since neither of us are going to change our opinions on the subject. Fair enough?

[davemakovec]

Again, what would surprise you more. Headline: Yovanni Gallardo wins 19 in only his second year with the Brewers. Or: Tender elbow lands Gallardo on the 15 day DL for the second time.

The first one, actually. I don't get the expectation that Yo's arm is going to explode.

 

[SoCalBrewfan]

Position by position is fun, but it ignores the relative importance of things and the size of differences, so can really skew the comparisons.

 

Runs scored, allowed last year:

 

Cubs: 752 scored, 690 allowed

Brewers: 801 scored, 776 allowed

 

Reds: 783 scored, 853 allowed

 

Cardinals: 725 scored, 829 allowed

Astros: 723 scored, 813 allowed

Pirates: 724 scored, 821 allowed

 

By that measure, there's three tiers of teams, and Cincinnati is not close to the top two yet IMO, unless you think they can shave off 100 runs allowed by adding Cordero and some combination of other moves. Cincy has young guys that could help them move up, but they're likely to lose Dunn and Griffey as they add Bruce and Votto, so I don't know that they're a threat unless something big changes. The bottom three teams have a long way to go...how the Cardinals were at the fringe of the race so long defies logic. The Brewers actually had the best offense, even before you consider the parks these teams play in...both Chicago and Cincy have higher park factors. However, the pitching / defense of the Cubs was a lot better than anyone else.

 

Cubs have to be considered the front-runners now with Fukodome and their existing edge in run prevention. Though it should be noted that Fukodome is a risk and as yet unknown...still, it hurts as a Brewers fan, and makes me wish we could open up the checkbook to solve a problem like that. Beyond Fukodome, there is indeed some risk for the Cubs in that their offense is concentrated in a small core of players, mostly at the corner positions...a steep decline or injury from one or two of those guys can really hurt them as they're lacking depth at the corners (as the Lee injury a while back illustrated). They have some youngsters at CF, C, SS who could be good should they actually decide to use them, but that remains to be seen...if they do commit to Soto and Pie and they're as good as I think they might be, it could be a very good team in Chicago. The Cubs' pitching looked strong, though a lot of the credit really goes to the defense. If they retool the middle jobs, as it seems they might, it may well affect the D as well...their corner guys are all pretty good to excellent with the glove, interestingly enough, but they are also reaching the ages when defense declines. I don't know to what extent defense regresses to the mean, but the Cubs were so good or lucky last year that there might be some backsliding to come. Still, a lot to like in terms of run prevention. Strangely, it seems that they're serious about Dempster in the rotation, but it remains to be seen whether that lasts. They've had some home-grown arms step up, which helps...Zambrano does seem like a potential implosion, but until then he's got a pretty nice track record and is still young. Marmol is a very good bet to regress, with Hall, Marquis, Lilly decent bets to do so as well. I don't think Marquis can sustain the lower HR rate, for example...Zambrano's K/9 was down a bit, and that makes one wonder of course.

 

The strength of the Brewers is that they have a lot of young players who could still take big steps forward, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that their offense could improve upon its already strong showing from last year. If they get a full season of the Weeks we saw last fall, a bounceback year from Hall, a decent OBP from Kendall, that's even more runs than their already impressive showing from 2007. However, Braun and Fielder are risks to regress a bit despite their age, just because they were so good last year. It remains to be seen which JJ Hardy we'll see, as well...but it's always hard to know with young guys. If Melvin takes some steps to fix the defense, as expected, that will help the runs allowed total...a lot of the half-run-per-game difference between Chicago and Milwaukee was the defense...the Brewers actually had a better FIP (4.18 vs. 4.24) but the second- or third-worst defense in the league, whereas the Cubs were the best or very close to that.

 

It's discouraging to see that we're playing a game where we have $70-80M to play with and our greatest adversaries have over $100M. The teams were close last year but that salary advantage is hard to overcome...take away $22M from the 2007 Cubs and we win the division. Now again their ability to open the checkbook means the Brewers face an uphill battle. That said, there's still leverage for Milwaukee in that they have one obvious weakness remaining (infield defense) and some time and resources to do something about it. It will still be a competitive division, I think, but again the Cubs have to be the favorites as of now.

[dlk9s]

Again, what would surprise you more. Headline: Yovanni Gallardo wins 19 in only his second year with the Brewers. Or: Tender elbow lands Gallardo on the 15 day DL for the second time.

Obviously the former would surprise any knowledgeable fan more, considering it is rare in today's game for someone to win 19 games. It is not rare for someone to go on the 15-day DL.

 

[ILuvDaBush]

Ok. Six months ago, which headline would have surprised Brewer fans more: "Parra throws Perfect Game" or "Parra has season ending shoulder surgery"? I'm just saying that you can't judge the pitcher's future solely by a pitcher's past. And furthermore, Yo has always been handled with kiddie gloves and has given Brewers' brass no reason to think that he can't transcend a #2 ranking and become the #1 many believe he can become.

[Ayt]

If something happened. He's 22 and starting to log major innings. With the history of this franchise and what happens to its best pitchers doesn't seem karmic, then, well, I don't know what to say.

So in your view, any pitching prospect the Brewers have should be expected to regress at some point early in their career because that is what some past Brewers pitchers have done? That is some seriously flawed logic.