NL Central Frontrunners

[zzzmanwitz]

I know, its December. But I'm bored and figured, why not. Lets take a look at the top three teams in the NL Central (Brewers, Cubs, Reds) and see how they stack up against one another. I will admit, I rely heavily on offense for this breakdown.

 

Catcher

1. Reds - David Ross

2. Brewers - Jason Kendall

3. Cubs - Geovany Soto

 

Really, catcher is a weak spot on each team. Soto is coming off the best year, but in very limited action. Obviously the Cubs weren't ready for him to take over the full time duties last year since they traded for Kendall. Ross had a bad year coming off a 21 HR season. He still hit 17 last year, which gives him the edge in upside over Kendall. I'm not sold that Soto will be successful as a major league catcher.

 

First Base

1. Brewers - Prince Fielder

2. Cubs - Derrick Lee

3. Reds - Joey Votto

 

You look at those names and see two big names at the top and then Scott Hatteberg, but the Reds really aren't that far behind the big two. Hatteberg had an .868 OPS last season, which is acceptable. Prince obviously takes the top spot, coming in third in the NL MVP voting. If Lee stays healthy, he is right up there with Prince. Don't know much about Votto. So, I'll just leave it alone.

 

Secon Base

1. Reds - Brandon Phillips

2. Brewers - Rickie Weeks

3. Cubs - Mark DeRosa

 

Brandon Phillips is good. Really good. Rickie is primed to break out this season, he put up fantastic numbers after his injury. DeRosa is solid, but don't expect anything spectacular out of him like Phillips and Weeks can provide.

 

Third Base

1. Brewers - Ryan Braun

2. Cubs - Aramis Ramirez

3. Reds - Edwin Encarnacion

 

Braun is an absolute stud at the plate. He matched Arod in production after his call up from AAA. Sure, his defense is bad, but it can't get any worse right? (fingers crossed) Aramis is an upper tier 3rd baseman, but not quite in the same league as Braun. Edwin Encarnacion is still a project for the Reds.

 

Shortstop

1. Brewers - JJ Hardy

2. Reds - Alex Gonzalez

3. Cubs - Ryan Theriot

 

JJ sits atop the SS class of the division. No one expects him to put up numbers like the first half of last year, but its hard not to be better than Gonzalez or Theriot.

 

Left Field

1. Cubs - Alfonzo Soriano

2. Reds - Adam Dunn

3. Brewers - Gross/Dillon

 

In a strict platoon, Grillon may not fall that far behind Dunn and Soriano in production, but those two are premeir hitters at their positions, and we really should expect Grillon to put up those numbers.

 

Center Field

1. Reds - Josh Hamilton

2. Brewers - Bill Hall

3. Cubs - Felix Pie

 

I'm not sold on Bill Hall. I'm glad we signed him when we did, but I really don't see him returning to the 35 HR form of 2 years ago. I think he'll improve a little from last season, but he's about a 7 hitter in my book. Josh Hamilton, a former number one pick, has all the tools and may finally have his head on straight. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big season out of him. Pie is TGJ 2.0

 

Right Field

1a. Reds - Ken Griffey Jr.

1b. Brewers - Corey Hart

1c. Cubs - Kosuke Fukudome

 

I have no idea. Enough said.

 

#1 Starter

1. Cubs - Carlos Zambrano

2. Reds - Aaron Harang

3. Brewers - Ben Sheets

 

The only reason I put Ben so low is his inablitly to pitch 200 innings. I really hope he does, believe me, I'm not a Sheets hater, but he's got to step it up this year. Big Z and Harang are two great Aces.

 

#2 Starter

1. Brewers - Yovanni Gallardo

2. Cubs - Ted Lilly

3. Reds - Bronson Arroyo

 

YoGa is for real. Lilly really surprised me last season, lets see if he can do it again. Arroyo just isn't a legit #2 in this league.

 

#3 Starter

1. Cubs - Rich Hill

2. Brewers - Carlos Villenueva

3. Reds - Homer Bailey

 

Hill had a great start to the season last year and faultered a bit at the end, but he really dominated the Crew last year and has good stuff. CV has only put up good numbers when given a chance to start, I really don't see that changing. Homer has the potential, lets see if he can put it to use this year.

 

#4 Starter

1. Cubs - Jason Marquis

2. Brewers - Jeff Suppan

3. Reds - Bobby Livingston

 

I'm still not sold on Marquis, but last year he did very well. It forces me to put him a top of this list. I also think Suppan did a great job for this team last year, very reliable. Livngston... Cincy, you need to get some pitching.

 

Closer

1. Reds - Francisco Cordero

2. Brewers - Eric Gagne

3. Cubs - Bob Howry

 

It still shocks me to see Gagne's name next to Brewers here. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Anyways, we all know what Cordero can do, a healthy Gagne can surpass him. Lets hope he's healthy. Howry is servicable at closer, but feels more like a setup guy to me.

 

Rest of Bullpen

1. Brewers

2. Cubs

3. Reds

 

Melvin did a great job revamping the bullpen. The cubs have Marmol, that's nothing to scoff at. The reds.... again, pitching.

 

Coach

1. Cubs - Pinella

2. Reds - Baker

4. Brewers - Yost

 

Yes, I know there is a 4 in front of Brewers. Not a typo.

 

After all that, I feel it breaks down this way.

 

Offense

1. Reds

2. Brewers

3. Cubs

 

Pitching

1. Cubs

2. Brewers

3. Reds

 

Outcome

1. ???

2. ???

3. Reds

 

I just think the Reds pitching is too poor to compete in the Central. As for the top two... the race is too close to call at this point. So basically I did all that for nothing... great. I'm glad there is more offseason that may help straighten things out.

[tigerbrew]

Yeah, sad to say that the Cubs currently have the best starting pitching and the best manager in the NL central. They may also be better defensively than the Brewers.

[owbc]

I don't think the Reds are at the same level. I see the Brewers and Cubs around 85-87 wins, with the Reds around 78-80. Cincinnati has a great offense, but they need pitching to win at GABP.

 

What will ultimately decide the division?

-Depth: the Brewers have the most, especially pitching. A few injuries could devastate the Cubs or Reds

-Winning on the road: The team that goes .500+ on the road has a big advantage, especially since the Cubs/Brewers both played well at home last year

-Unexpected contributors: Last year Gallardo stepped up for the Brewers...who will it be this year?

-Aces: Sheets' injury arguably cost the Brewers the division last year. Zambrano will contend for the Cy Young if his head doesn't explode

-Defense: The Brewers have a serious disadvantage here, the Rockies and Red Sox went to the World Series and were #1 and #3 in Fielding %

-Managing: I believe managers' have little to no impact in the long run, but if it comes down to the last week of the season, I'd rather have Lou making the calls.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nice work on that post, zman. Obviously spent some time digging. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Pie is TGJ 2.0

 

Patently false. Pie is probably the most overlooked Cubs player by Brewers fans. He's going to surprise some people next year, I think, if he can stay healthy.

 

The only other gripe that comes to mind as of now is your ranking of Braun ahead of Ramirez. When you include D in that breakdown, Ramirez is ahead, and easily. Braun's due for a regression (not just a 'hunch', but moreso unsustainable stats like his #s v. LHP, for example), and we can only hope DM comes through in landing a solid 3B so Braun's bat can shine as a LFer. Seriously, throw him in that LF ranking, and I'm not sure that Soriano is ahead of him.

[zzzmanwitz]

Patently false. Pie is probably the most overlooked Cubs player by Brewers fans. He's going to surprise some people next year, I think, if he can stay healthy.

 

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you here TLB. That salt water must be getting into your brain. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Care to expand? Pie's put up numbers in the minors startlingly similar to Soriano's minor-league offense, and is almost a clone of him physically. In any event, 2008 will tell us a lot about Felix's game.

[ILuvDaBush]

Also, Joey Votto is going to be at 1B for the Reds in 08. Not to say he is going to be either 1 or 2, but he is better than Hatteburg.

[ILuvDaBush]

And also, Jason Marquis is not better than Jeff Suppan. And the number 3 starters should be 1A/1B/1C...as Bailey really COULD be better than CV or Lilly. CV could just as easily be better than either of the two. Just like you said, let's see Lilly do it again. And the closer for the Cubs is the Dumpster unless they put him in as their five (which should also be thrown up there, as it would be like #1. Brewz. #26. Cubs. And....Well the Reds don't even have enough pitchers for a complete rotation. Dusty is going old school with the four!

[relly582]

When it comes to catchers, there is a reason Geovanny Soto started in the playoffs and it wasn't because Jason Kendall was hurt. Soto had a much better shot at throwing runners out and he was better at the plate. I'm sorry Brewer fans but a catcher who is worse behind the plate and swinging the stick does not have the edge on a young guy who showed to be better at both.

 

At first I believe you are right, hopefully DLee finds some of his power back next year to boost our offense a little more this year.

 

After last season we'd have to say Mark Derosa and Rickie Weeks are a wash at second, but Derosa gives the Cubs a major edge with his utility.

 

Ryan Braun is an absolute stud, but so is Aramis. Because of Brauns performance in the field you do not have the edge, but my God is Braun a great hitter. If either of these 2 struggle next year, that could certainly give the other team the edge without a doubt.

 

At first, short, left field and center I agree with you and I also agree with who knows what will happen in right field next year as well..

 

I think Harang is clearly the best number 1 starter, Zambrano needs to get his act together this year and show he truly can lead a staff.

 

Number 2 starter I agree with, and Gallardo will probably have to do with whether you guys take the Cubs or fall short next season.

 

Number 3 starter, sure, I'm hoping Rich Hill will do some more growing next year and just be more solid year round rather than so streaky throughout.

 

Number 4, I do not believe Marquis is better than the others but they are all pretty much a wash depending on the time of year. They all are rather brutal at points.

 

Closer, no comment. We'll see what sort of Gagne arrives in Milwaukee and what the Cubs decide to do with theirs.

 

Bullpen. I wish the Cubs would add a decent arm or 2. I agree with you.

 

Coaching. I wouldn't put Baker too high, he is far too loyal to his players. At some point you just need to put your best team on the field and not just let the broken pieces dangle along the entire way.

 

Offense: I agree, I feel all of them should be rather close.

Pitching: Agree

Outcome: Gonna be a good race folks. I have a feeling our teams will be better and the race will be as close. Your young talent has aged some and the Cubs have begun getting rid of the broken pieces and started filling those holes.

 

Yes I know both sides are probably biased towards this, but good post nonetheless and thanks for having me, I do enjoy reading these boards as a Cubs fan. You guys have a good community here.

[Fatter than Joey]

Wow --- Whenever I see a great post like this -- I feel inclined to give feedback, please don't construe this as being critical.

 

1.) DEFENSE -- This is a HUGE advantage to the Cubs, if Braun stays at 3rd, the gap is very substantial.

 

2.) 1st & 3rd -- If you look at offense I probably agree with your rankings -- IF everyone is healthy I feel that Lee and Ramirez are better all around players than Prince and Braun at this point in their careers.

 

3.) I think Soto is better than Kendall -- both behind the plate and with the bat.

 

4.) I think Suppan is better than Marquis, -- but may have worse results with our defense.

 

5.) Bullpen -- I think that the Cubs have the best non-closer in Marmol. If Wood pitches well, the Cubs could be better -- Lots of question marks for all teams.

 

6.) AAA -- This is what saved the Brewers in 2007 -- If the Reds got solid contributions from guys like Cueto, Maloney & Votto -- they could be a lot better than they appear now. I think that the Reds have the best potential for 2008 farm help.

 

7.) Bench -- I am not sure who would have the edge here -- but this needs to be factored in.

 

8.) 2007 -- I think how 2007 ended will have a factor in 2008. The Reds finished strong, as did the Cubs -- not so much for the Brewers. Yost enters 2008 "on a short leash", and that could be a distraction.

 

Felix Pie -- I think he is WAY better than TGJ -- I would trade TGJ for Pie in an instant. Pie has some pop in his bat that TGJ will never have.

 

If some of those AAA arms show up for the Reds, I think I like them to win the Central.

[Ennder]

I dunno, Harang > Zambrano and I think Zambrano is probably as much of an injury risk as Sheets given how much abuse he's taken so far. Zambrano has regressed 4 years in a row and not just in ERA but in all peripherals, I know he is a big aviod guy for fantasy and I'll be surprised if he doesn't end up on the DL in the next year or two.

 

I think Aramis is more valuable than Braun at 3B and Lee is at least as valuable as Fielder at 1B when you add in defense.

[JohnBriggs12]

Votto is the Reds 1st baseman, not Hatteberg.

 

Soto should be by far the best of those 3 at catcher. The Cubs couldn't get Kendall out of town fast enough.

 

Cubs bullpen is tops and it isn't even close despite all the moves the Brewers made. For example put Michael Wuertz on the Brewers, and he's the setup guy. He might not make the Cubs roster.

 

Suppan is clearly superior to Marquis. But Dempster will be their 4th starter when all is said and done.

 

Finally, the Astros should be in this discussion, not the Reds.

[Ennder]

The Astros should be in the discussion for last place... not first. The Reds are easily the 3rd best team in the NL Central when you include the chance of prospects coming up since they have a lot of high end prospects almost ready.

 

I still can't put Soto as the top C, he put up great numbers in AAA last year but it was his 3rd season there. Soto has the most upside of any of the C's but he has to prove it before I'm happy putting him above those other two.

 

Bullpen is hard to judge, I'd give the edge to the Cubs but I don't think Marmol is going to be as good this season, he is basically Turnbow if teams make him throw strikes. Most of that low ERA was a 91% LOB which he won't sustain. Howry/Wood aren't going to be much better than Gagne, Wuertz is pretty even with Riske. I think overall the edge has to go to them but the reality could go either way.

[rotoherb]

It's likely that the Reds will trade Hamilton and then give Jay Bruce an outfield spot at some point early in the season, if not from opening day. Bruce has the ability to run away with the ROY next year. Votto is a big upgrade over Hatteberg. Johnny Cueto will be in the rotation very quickly as well. Many people believe that he is better than Homer Bailey. If the Reds pull off that rumored trade for Eric Bedard, they will be very, very tough with Harang, Bedard, Arroyo and Cueto as their top four starters, maybe the best rotation in the division. They easily have the best minor league system of the NL Central clubs right now. Do not overlook the Reds.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Votto is a big upgrade over Hatteberg.

Sorry but no, no he is not. He is a nice young ball player but he put up an .859 OPS in AAA last season. The platoon last year put up a .849 OPS which includes Hatteberg's .394 OBP. I think Votto will struggle to match that.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed on the Reds, herb.

 

When it comes to catchers, there is a reason Geovanny Soto started in the playoffs and it wasn't because Jason Kendall was hurt. Soto had a much better shot at throwing runners out and he was better at the plate.

 

So you're going to tell us what we know or should know based on a tiny sample of ABs from the end of the season? Come on. Soto played because his bat was hot. He'll be fortunate to have as long a career as Kendall has had. No one here is under the impression that Kendall's a defensive whiz, but he's a huge upgrade in OBP, which is what our offense lacks. We'll see how Soto does over more than a few ABs, and with other teams having much more accurate scouting reports.

 

After last season we'd have to say Mark Derosa and Rickie Weeks are a wash at second, but Derosa gives the Cubs a major edge with his utility.

Why don't we re-visit this comment around the ASB next year & see how you still feel about it. You're right, DeRosa can play many positions, and hit at an average level. Rickie Weeks is going to put a gulf between himself and the rest of the 2B in the NL next year, let alone DeRosa.

 

Gonna be a good race folks. I have a feeling our teams will be better and the race will be as close. Your young talent has aged some and the Cubs have begun getting rid of the broken pieces and started filling those holes.

 

Agreed - and not intended to be malicious, but what holes have the Cubs filled aside from LF?

[Tbadder]

I really can't see the Brewers finishing higher than 3rd. As mentioned the Reds will be much tougher than most realize. They might have the best hitting team in the division, and if they can aquire some solid pitching to go along with the two young studs, it might be over before it begins. If they get Bedard, well, I don't even want to think about it.

 

I'd also rate Griffey as a clear 3rd in rightfield if Fukudome ends up there. Griffey's defense is so bad he's almost a Braun-of-the-RF.

 

Lets not underestimate how bad Dusty Baker is though. He could be the single most important player in the Central, as he is probably only marginally better than Yost.

 

Also, the catcher rating I can't agree with. Kendall right now is bad--Johnny Estrada bad. Wow, if we can't nail down Laird, which I bet were not even considering after throw 500 large at Munson, then we've got a major hole.

 

Much is going to depend on Health. In fact I'd say it will be the determining factor in the Brewers fate. Gagne and Sheets must survive and thrive. Gagne might, Sheets won't. We're stuck with a silk purse that wants to be a sow's ear. And that begs the question: how do we change all those fair starting pitchers (Bush, Suppan, Vargas, CV, Parra) into one good starting pitcher? The answer: water, water everywhere and nary a drop to drink. You don't.

 

Brewers 3rd unless they obtain better startng pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, our SP is already well ahead of Cincy, so not sure what you're saying. 3rd place? Pessimism is healthy, to be sure, but don't beat yourself up!

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Tbadder]

I consider Harang, Bailey, and Cueto better than our 1,2, and 3. And clearly superior when Sheets goes down as usual. I realize this is risky since two of them are babies, but so is Gallardo (he could implode as well). My point is, if someone like Bedard does come their way, then pushing the babies down will be potentially devastating to the division. If they don't make a move we've got a shot.

[LUKE232323]

I consider Harang, Bailey, and Cueto better than our 1,2, and 3. And clearly superior when Sheets goes down as usual. I realize this is risky since two of them are babies, but so is Gallardo (he could implode as well). My point is, if someone like Bedard does come their way, then pushing the babies down will be potentially devastating to the division. If they don't make a move we've got a shot.

I will take Sheets, Gallardo, and Villanueva over the Reds three any day of the week. As far as teams overall, we had just as good if not better offense than the Reds last year, and even with Cordero added for them I would still take our bullpen overall.

[Tbadder]

Oh gosh, we definitely agree to disagree here. I'm not imporessed at all with our straters. As mentioned Sheets is always hurt. Harang is tougher by far, and at this point more productive. I love Gallardo, but if he loses any of his stuff, even 2 or 3 mph, then I think he's just a young Suppan. I believe Bailey and Cueto have more upside (but of course as I said before that's a risky proposition as well). CV, while I like him, is no great shakes. He's solid and servicable, which has it's place and is commendable, but unless he's your clear 4th or 5th best pitcher I don't think you really contend with him. Just my opinion, no big whoop.

Oh yeah, I do like our pen better if all stay healthy.

[LUKE232323]

Oh gosh, we definitely agree to disagree here. I'm not imporessed at all with our straters. As mentioned Sheets is always hurt. Harang is tougher by far, and at this point more productive. I love Gallardo, but if he loses any of his stuff, even 2 or 3 mph, then I think he's just a young Suppan. I believe Bailey and Cueto have more upside (but of course as I said before that's a risky proposition as well). CV, while I like him, is no great shakes. He's solid and servicable, which has it's place and is commendable, but unless he's your clear 4th or 5th best pitcher I don't think you really contend with him. Just my opinion, no big whoop.

I lost you completely when you implied:

 

1. Gallardo has a good chance to lose 3-4 MPH

2. Gallardo is comparable to Suppan in any way

 

Your post screams pessimism over realism, no question.

[Robideaux]

If Prince Fielder plays with a whiffle ball bat next year, then I think he's just a young Joey Meyer.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

I believe Bailey and Cueto have more upside

 

No one will argue that, but they are so much farther away from there ceiling right now. Bailey walked over 5 batter per 9 innings and Cueto as barely pitched above AA. To say they are going to be better than the Brewers 2 and 3 next season is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Patrick425]

I'm not imporessed at all with our starters.

I somewhat agree although I was shot down by many at the end of the year when I said that starting pitching is one of the Brewer's main weaknesses. Sheet's health is always a question and I think people are way too pumped about guys like Gallardo, Villeneuva, and Parra. I'm not saying that they don't all have some great potential, but the list of former MLB pitchers is littered with can't miss potentially great pithcers that never panned out. I will say that I feel a little better now that the bullpen has been shored up a bit, but I would still feel much more comfortable if they had a proven #2 or #3 pitcher (besides Suppan, assuming we are saying he's a #3 pitcher) with more of a history in the majors. I want to get to the playoffs, and win in the playoffs, now, and not count on or wait until the young pitchers mature.

 

Everyone keeps pointing out the fact that they have 8 starters. Yeah, but the ace is injury prone and there is no proven #2. Eight is a great number to have, but if more than half of them are back of the rotation type pitchers, who cares?