CHC signs Kosuke Fukudome (4yr/48M)

[homer]

The money is a big deal for a team like the Brewers but the way the Cubs have been tossing money around recently it probably won't hamstring them too much.

[Scooter1027]

That PECOTA projection for Fukudome is very scary. If he can get on base at a .401 clip, and bat right in front of Lee/Ramirez/Soriano in some fashion, that would be a dangerous lineup. Heck, he should lead off for them, something like Fukudome/somebody (Derosa? Pie?)/Lee/Ramirez/Soriano. It's making me think more and more that we can't trade Sheets if we want to contend this year, we're going to need every start he can give us to pitch to Chicago, Houson, and Cincinnati all year.

[Oldcity]

That projection just seems awfully high. Isn't that basically the line he put up in Japan?

[Brewtacular]

Dont worry......Afterall Tuffy Rhodes had a hall of fame career.......in Japan! Hiyo!

[TheCouga23]

I doubt that PECOTA projections are very reliable with players coming from Japan to the MLB. There just isn't enough history to make a reliable prediction going from one of those leagues to the other. How many hitters have come over from Japan like Fukudome? Four or five? That's not reliable.

 

Nevertheless, Fukodome doubtlessly makes the Cubs better. I would be rather surprised if he puts up over a .900 OPS, but I would have much rather have seen him to to a non-divisional opponent. I have a feeling he will become a solid hitter, but not an all-star. Unfortunately, now I have to hope that he tears his elbow to shreds or slips getting out of a hot tub or something.

[TooLiveBrew]

That projection just seems awfully high. Isn't that basically the line he put up in Japan?

Essentially, yeah. His career line is .305/.389/.542/.931. 2007 (only 348 ABs) - .294/.443/.520/.963.

 

What confuses me so much is that they have his SLG taking an expected fall, yet his OBP staying north of .400 - seems odd. Also of note is that Fukudome has missed significant portions in 2 of the last 4 years. In 2004 he was only able to play in 92 games, and in 2007, only 81. I don't know enough about him to know any of his injury history, but that has to add to the risk.

 

Anyone know more on what injuries caused him to miss such significant time - and if there could be anything to worry about (aside from being over 30 years old) heading into 2008 & beyond?

[TooLiveBrew]

Here are some high/lowlights from the nsbb.com thread on the signing:

 

"This is a very good signing by Hendry. We're an average shortstop away from being the best team in the league. How much will Theriot improve this year?"

 

and in response to that...

 

"...This is quite true. Although it has nothing to do with this move. The Cubs were an average shortstop away from being the best team in the league before they signed Fukudome."

 

This, quoted from an article -

 

Manager Lou Piniella, who called Fukudome a cross between Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui, said last week he expected to bat the new Cub fourth or fifth in the order.

Ahhh. Good ol' Lou. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif (my emphasis)

 

And, some classy analysis of "terrible baseball" & booing -

"Jacque [Jones] was absolutely abysmal when he first got here, and he was horrid again at the beginning of last year. I mean come on, fans are going to boo that. It's terrible baseball."

 

Ooooh - I get it now! Glad there are geniuses like this around to set dummies like me straight! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Lastly, there was a link to some more projections on Fukudome from Rotoauthority.com. Since it's just their front/home page, I'll post them here (plus, then you don't have to click the link!) -

 

PECOTA: .289/.401/.504/.905 (Ennder posted this already - thanks!)

CHONE: .283/.373/.465/.838

ZiPS: .293/.382/.460/.842

 

Keep in mind it's a fantasy baseball site when you read the final line of the article: "The average projection is ... olid, but nothing to go crazy about." All of those projections look very good to me. Oh - also of note, Nate Silver's PECOTA projection only slots Fukudome for 395 ABs, due to concerns over his elbow problems. I'll try to stay positive & hope that's accurate!

 

And a final throw-in - I'd just like to say how much more I appreciate BF.net after slogging through 23 pages of block-quoting, one-line/one-smiley, photo signature posts in the Fukudome thread. Miserable.

[Invader3K]

The idea of drunken Cubs fans sitting out at Wrigley butchering Fukudome's name really gets to me, but I have to admit this is a good move by the Cubs, even if I think the contract is a bit expensive, and probably longer than they should be committing for. The Cubs are basically the Yankees or Red Sox of the NL at this point, where it's becoming obvious that money isn't much of an object for them.

 

Does anyone else think this signing puts more pressure on the Brewers to acquire one more impact bat before the start of next season?

[gregmag]

Well, if the Cubs' owners ever ask the city to finance a new retractable-roof facility, and the voters defeat the bond issue, and then the owners build the park with their own money, they can name it after him.

 

Greg.

[hauser42]

I was watching ESPN News yesterday and they did not giving the greatest report on Fukodome. Sounds like he is slightly above average player. He will get on base and give the team defense. I thought this guy was going to provide some pop for the money being talked about.

 

Besides Soriano and A-Ram this team doesn't have a lot of power. Lee has solid average but his power has been off, could be due to his wrist but could also a decline.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure what you'd heard, hauser - from all accounts I'd heard he's projected for around 15-20ish HR, but he has a very sound swing & uses the gaps well. Many believe he'll chase down 40 2Bs if he is healthy all year. Basically, he'll have a strong SLG% without a ton of HR. But the OBP is where he looks like he'll provide the most value.

[Blazer25]

This is bad news all around for the Brewers. Maybe he's not a world-beater but he gives the Cubs a plus defender who will get on base. He's the type of "professional hitter" that every team could use. He's Geoff Jenkins with a good eye. He's worth 12 million and he might make the Cubs a 95 win team.

Not good.

[hauser42]

Not sure what you'd heard, hauser - from all accounts I'd heard he's projected for around 15-20ish HR, but he has a very sound swing & uses the gaps well. Many believe he'll chase down 40 2Bs if he is healthy all year. Basically, he'll have a strong SLG% without a ton of HR. But the OBP is where he looks like he'll provide the most value.

I agree he will be an upgrade, but with all the offseason buzz I was thinking he was going to come in and be a 30 HR that could hit for average. I dont fall japanese players till they get here.

 

 

[homer]

There was probably more buzz on this site than nationally.

[And That]

There was probably more buzz on this site than nationally.

We have the heartbeat of Cubs nation here. If they had a heartbeat.

 

[DrWood]

if rowand is worth 5 yrs at 12, I guess fook you do me is worth 4 yrs at 12 mill.

but he's probably a considerably bigger risk than rowand, and that's saying a lot.

[pogokat]

foo-koo-doh-may

 

and i'll be posting that over and over again...

[Brewtacular]

Found an interesting article by one my favorite Japan based sports writers on espn.

""He's a good player," said Hiroshima Carp manager Marty Brown, who has watched Fukudome play for the past two years. "He's a really clutch hitter, and he still runs well."

 

Here is the link article

 

Also, Jim Allen the author does a weekly article at yomiuir.co.jp, you just have to click on english and then sports.