CHC signs Kosuke Fukudome (4yr/48M)

[Oldcity]

My guess is that the difference between Fukudome and Murton is almost nil.

He'll be a big upgrade defensively, but other than that, touchet.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

as much as i like fukudome, i think he's not a sure thing...and thats a lot of money

 

Yea - as much as I want to take care to not just be a homer, I'm not sold that this guy is going to be the fix in 2008. He projects roughly 15+ HR in MLB, and with that drop in SLG, I think you can reasonably guess his OBP would be lower, too. If he can surpass a .280/.340/.450 line, I think the Cubs will have to be pleased. I still have my doubts - but am worried they're just hopes.

 

Fortunately for the Cubs, money they can absorb. That's the great part about this acquisition for them. No players surrendered, obviously. Time will tell how his OBP (which looks to be his biggest offensive asset in MLB) will translate now that he will no longer be a 30 HR guy.

[fallingleaves]

I think Fukudome will be very effective hitting 2nd in the Cub lineup. I think his hr will drop off but will maintain his high on base percentage.

 

Lets hope the Cubs don't trade for Brian Roberts

[ccbrew]

I think recent history has shown that we should take a cautious approach with Japanese players. I can't think of one (save Ichiro) that has come over and lived up to the hype. Nomo had a couple of good years, Matsui for the Yanks has been pretty good, but none have been major impact players. Look at Dice-K. Put up pretty pedestrian numbers.

 

I can't see any reason why Fukudome will be any different.

Kenji Johjima comes to mind. Some questioned his ability to handle pitchers due to the language barrier in addition to all the other usual concerns, but he's produced solid numbers in the two seasons that he's been here. Kaz Sasaki had something like 120 saves in his first three years. I'd say those numbers were better than pedestrian.

 

Jury is still out on Matsuzaka. The only real disappointment in my mind is Kaz Matsui.

 

[splitterpfj]

The Cubs won this fight when they added the fourth year, yes this is a risk, but I think it's a great signing.

 

I would expect about 15 HR from this player, but the OBP will be there, and he's a good defender, he should fit nicely into the Cubs' lineup. Imagine if the Brewers acquired a LF or 3B right now who had excellent OBP skills, strong defense and 15 HR - 40 doubles - we would not be unhappy.

[Ennder]

Our bullpen got better, our offense stayed the same, our SP got better.

I was thinking just the opposite. The SP are the same 6-7 guys, but the offense surely hasn't topped out quite yet. It would be hard to fathom that Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and Hall all reached their potential last year.

 

As for the bullpen, I agree. Strength there should improve the SP, if that's what you meant.

 

A full year of Gallardo and Villanueva in the rotation is going to be much better than Vargas and Bush/Capuano in my opinion.

[LUKE232323]

Our bullpen got better, our offense stayed the same, our SP got better.

I was thinking just the opposite. The SP are the same 6-7 guys, but the offense surely hasn't topped out quite yet. It would be hard to fathom that Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and Hall all reached their potential last year.

 

As for the bullpen, I agree. Strength there should improve the SP, if that's what you meant.

A full year of Gallardo and Villanueva in the rotation is going to be much better than Vargas and Bush/Capuano in my opinion.

 

Couldn't agree more. I don't know why anyone would think the starting rotation will be a wash with last year. YG/CV in the rotation for a full season, along with the fact that both Sheets and Suppan have a very realistic chance to have better seasons than 2007 in 2008. I think 2008's rotation have more guys with the ability to go longer innings, which should also save our bullpen from being absolutely fried by August.

 

On offense, I see Braun/Fielder/Hardy coming down a bit, but Hall and Weeks coming up a bit, and I still think we add a bat like Blalock, Rolen, or Ethier to the mix. Probably a wash on offense.

 

Bullpen, there are question marks but there is also talent, so the jury is still out there. I think we have less liabilities than last season (Wise at the end of the year, Spurling, et al), but we also have a lot of players that are looking to bounce back. The pen is definitely not hurting for guys with good stuff, however.

[valpocrewsader]

Good signing for the Cubs, bad news for us. Instantly makes the Cubs division favorites once again, in my opinion. We've *maybe* upgraded our bullpen from last year, but have made no offensive, defensive, or SP improvements to date. Cubs already proved they were the better team last year, lost no one, and just added a top free agent bat and glove. Say what you want about a Murton comparison, but Murton wasn't getting played everyday ... Fukudome will. No sense commenting about the money, it doesn't matter.

 

Very bad news....

[LUKE232323]

Good signing for the Cubs, bad news for us. Instantly makes the Cubs division favorites once again, in my opinion. We've *maybe* upgraded our bullpen from last year, but have made no offensive, defensive, or SP improvements to date. Cubs already proved they were the better team last year, lost no one, and just added a top free agent bat and glove. Say what you want about a Murton comparison, but Murton wasn't getting played everyday ... Fukudome will. No sense commenting about the money, it doesn't matter.

 

Very bad news....

 

I think that is definitely going overboard, unless you think Fukodome is going to be Ichiro with more power. And the Brewers obviously are not done making moves yet, given surplus of pitching at the moment.

 

I'd say the teams are pretty much at a wash right now.

 

Lots of players are hyped coming from other countries, in all sports. That doesn't mean their success will translate.

[jwill535]

until he comes and lights up the world, i am not to worried. I think the hype is better then the player, who i see being slightly above average.

[Ennder]

PECOTA projects him as .289/.401/.504/.905

 

I sure hope that is wrong since that would be a huge huge upgrade to that team.

[patrickgpe]

after the dice-k disappointment, i am not going to freak over this signing until i see something on the field.

[Fatter than Joey]

I sure hope that is wrong since that would be a huge huge upgrade to that team.

 

Amen -- that would suck eggs. Defensively he is good -- I don't see how this signing is anything but a good thing for the Cubs.

[Ennder]

PECOTA projected Dice-k as 200 IP, 3.83 ERA, 20 HR, 176 K, 55 BB

Dice-k actually put up 204.7 IP, 4.40 ERA, 25 HR, 201 K, 80 BB

 

That is a pretty good translation of his statline.

 

I'm not going to freak out either but I am worried about this move.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fukudome essentially replaces Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd. Those two combined to hit .286/.349/.409. I doubt Fukudome is a huge upgrade over that.

 

The guy who provides the Cubs with the potential for a big upgrade is Soto. Soto could be an All Star.

 

The Brewer bullpen is better overall, but it is still inferior to the Cub pen. Now if Mota and Torres revert to near their top form, that might be different.

 

The jury is out on the starting staffs. The Brewers could and perhaps should be better, while I don't see the Cubs getting much better. Lilly had what for him is a career year. Hill isn't as young as his experience (he'll be 28 in March) would make him seem. He might improve, or he could be as good as he's going to get. Zambrano is always a threat to be a Cy Young candidate but is more likely to be what he was in 07 which is dominant at times and in a funk at other times. Marquis, Marshall, and Dempster (if he actually moves from closer to starter), make up a decent backend of a rotation.

 

Cubs have some young pitching (Hart, Gallagher, Ascanio) that they are very high on too.

[Tbadder]

If I were the Cubs this is exactly what I'd be trying to do--spend the division into oblivion. As the biggest market in the NL Central I'd just keep throwing money at my problems. It works in the AL; it can work here. What it might do is force other markets, especially the Brewers and Pirates into mistakes that will further weaken their franchises and destroy their ability to compete. If Fukudome doesn't work, it doesn't matter if it forces the other teams' hand. With St. Louis listing like an unmoored boat, and Houston delusional, I'd try to stick it really hard to the Reds and Brewers who are acting as if they could contend. I'd get into the Dan Haren sweepstakes seriously, and do what I could to add Roberts. It'd be like taking the rest of the division to the woodshed with a very clear message--don't mess with the Cubs or be prepared to lose money every year trying to keep up.

[rotoherb]

While I agree that Geovany Soto will likely have better production from the catcher position than the Cubs had last season, saying that he could be an All-Star seems way over the top. We're talking about a guy who never had an OPS better than 750 in the minors until last season, when he somehow had a .415 BABIP, in his third season at AAA. His OBP will be his biggest boost to the Cubs, but he's not likely to come anywhere close to what he did last year overall.

[colbyjack]

Fukudome essentially replaces Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd. Those two combined to hit .286/.349/.409. I doubt Fukudome is a huge upgrade over that.

 

I think I was one of the bigger fans of Fukudome around here, so I'm bummed that he's heading to the Cubs, but Briggs makes a good point about the players the Cubs had a year ago. Defensively Fukudome is probably comparable to Jones with good speed and a strong arm and the ability to play CF. The money is big enough that any struggles by Fukudome will be magnified, but I'm not going to try and change my tune on the guy to try and find a reason why the Cubs won't have a pretty good offense next year. Shortstop would seem to remain a hole for them, and catcher is a question mark, but the Brewers also are projected to have a few questions on spots on the field, catcher and whatever happens with LF/3B.

[TooLiveBrew]

PECOTA projects him as .289/.401/.504/.905

 

Yikes. Yikes.

 

.286/.349/.409. I doubt Fukudome is a huge upgrade over that.

 

I hope so. Yikes.

 

We're talking about a guy who never had an OPS better than 750 in the minors until last season, when he somehow had a .415 BABIP, in his third season at AAA. His OBP will be his biggest boost to the Cubs, but he's not likely to come anywhere close to what he did last year overall.

 

Rotoherb with the best post I've seen on Soto.

[Ennder]

My baseball forecaster came today so I'll start spouting some made up numbers in my posts!

 

Soto is down for an .801 OPS in it which would be pretty big for them but not as big as some people project him at.

 

Pie is down for a .795 OPS which seems reasonable.

[TooLiveBrew]

.795 OPS in his age 23 season. That'd be very good. In his age 25 season (if you believe that's his real age - I, for one, don't), Alfonso Soriano posted a .736 OPS. In his age 23 season (since I'm no math or stat whiz, I'll only use his largest sample - he split time btw. Rookie, AA, & AAA ball) in 1999 over 361 ABs at AA Norwich, Soriano's OPS was .864.

 

At age 20 in 2005 at AA West Tenn, Pie posted a .903 OPS - but granted, it was over just 240 ABs. Pie probably worries me more than any other position player prospect that's going to be in the NL Central in 2008.

[SeriesFinale]

The money is big enough that any struggles by Fukudome will be magnified, but I'm not going to try and change my tune on the guy to try and find a reason why the Cubs won't have a pretty good offense next year. Shortstop would seem to remain a hole for them, and catcher is a question mark, but the Brewers also are projected to have a few questions on spots on the field, catcher and whatever happens with LF/3B.

It should be an exciting race in the NL Central this year. Without sounding too melodramatic, I can't remember an Opening Day game for the Brewers that had more at stake.

[Fear The Chorizo]

48 million and four years is a lot of coin to give to someone who hasn't played an inning in the major leagues. The cubs have the money to spend, and he definitely fills a hole on their roster - i don't think he's a star, but he may end up being serviceable.

as for the importance of the opening day game/series, I'll be thrilled if Sheets gets through the game healthy, since it will probably be all of 35 degrees and sprinkling outside, with about a 15 mph wind blowing off Lake Michigan. There's a reason the Cubs have historically opened their season at Cincinnatti - it stinks playing at wrigley field in early April.

I for one just can't wait for the regular season so I can stop reading posts about the 'projected' numbers of everyone.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Without sounding too melodramatic, I can't remember an Opening Day game for the Brewers that had more at stake.

 

The first must-win game of the season!

[And That]

Without sounding too melodramatic, I can't remember an Opening Day game for the Brewers that had more at stake.

 

The first must-win game of the season!

Heck with that, this year is a must-win!