Who gets the final bullpen spot?

[LUKE232323]

With Gagne getting #38, it appears that the writing is on the wall for Wise and he will be non-tendered. I think most would agree that locks for the pen are:

 

Torres

Gagne

Turnbow

Shouse

Mota

Riske

 

So who gets the last spot? Right now it appears to be between McClung, Parra, and maybe Bush? It most likely comes down to whether or not Cappy is traded. If Cappy is moved Parra should get every opportunity to earn a starting rotation spot. Vargas is likely gone.

 

So what do people think? At this point I still think we move Capuano given his age/value and he's a lefty, Parra makes the rotation, and Bush gets the last spot as long relief/emergency starter, McClung is moved to AAA.

[RyDogg66]

I think Parra will start the year in AAA assuming he has options.

[Ennder]

Assuming no trade my money is on Wise. People are reading too much into Gagne's number and I doubt he is just DFA'd.

 

Hmm, I also don't see us just dumping Bush so I think we almost have to make a trade to get rid of someone. McClung should go down to the minors, he still has to prove his improved control is for real.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think McClung is a horrible pitcher -- but I would rather see him getting regular work in Nashville (like Choate) if someone gets hurt. I think there is a zero% chance Parra will be in the rotation -- I'd rather see him in Nashville as well.

 

I guess for that last spot I'd want a guy like Vargas who can chew up innings in blowouts, or could make emergency starts if needed. I think Wise is a better pitcher than Vargas, but I would rather have Vargas in the BP because he could make an emergency start. I think Cappy/Bush are better, but I suspect they will have higher trade value.

 

I think that BP needs a starter in it.

[MNBrew]

I'd say there's an outside chance Wise isn't DFA'd. But given his terrible 2nd half and the overall high number of credible pitchers on the roster, it does seem highly likely that Wise is gone.

 

But Ennder, you're right, it's not a given just based on the #38 jersey going to Gagne because . . . Kendall was given #18 at his presser and yet Gabe Gross is still around, not going anywhere.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I guess for that last spot I'd want a guy like Vargas who can chew up innings in blowouts, or could make emergency starts if needed. I think Wise is a better pitcher than Vargas, but I would rather have Vargas in the BP because he could make an emergency start. I think Cappy/Bush are better, but I suspect they will have higher trade value.

 

I think that BP needs a starter in it.

I agree with this 100%. My money is on Bush/Vargas/Parra as getting the last spot in the bullpen. Right now the pen has 5 one inning guys and a LOOGY. If a starter goes down in the first inning, you need a long reliever. I think Wise is gone unless Turnbow is dealt and/or Torres does retire. There just isn't room for him.

 

[LUKE232323]

Reason I said Bush as the last guy is that I believe Cappy will be moved and Bush is usually effective in 5 or less innings, making him an ideal guy for a long relief spot if a starter gets shelled early. Given the amount of baserunners that Vargas allows, I don't think he's ideal for a long relief role.

[JohnBriggs12]

The pen will be Vargas or Bush, Shouse, Mota, Torres, Riske, and Gagne. The final spot is up for grabs between McClung, Stetter, and Choate.

 

Wise will be gone this week. Turnbow will be gone soon as part of a deal as that was the whole purpose of the "he's our closer talk".

 

A longshot? Stetter or Choate beats out Shouse. No way they start the season with 13 pitchers as some have suggested.

 

Wise is gone because he is not durable and can't pitch multiple innings.

[LUKE232323]

Do you have inside info on Bow or is that just your speculation?

[endaround]

Lets look at two pitchers.

 

Pitcher A: Age 31 2007: 69 IP 6.72 K/9 3.49 BB/9 1.03 HR/9 FIP 4.41

 

Pitcher B: Age 32 2007: 53 IP 7.21 K/9 2.85 BB/9 0.84 HR/9 FIP 3.81

 

Pitcher A is worth up to $20 m over 3 years while Pitcher B apparently shouldn't be on the team. Hmmm.......

[SoCalBrewfan]

Recent Brewers seasons have illustrated the need to have 7 or so starters available...even after the Brewers trade one of the Capuano / Vargas / Bush group, they'll want to keep backups, in the event of injuries / ineffectiveness among the initial batch of five starters. It does seem likely that Parra in AAA will be one such backup...the other will probably be in the major league bullpen.

 

I would similarly assume that they'll have guys in AAA who are considered bullpen depth, for if and when one of the recently-aqcuired old timers break down. McClung is out of options, and I don't know if he'd clear waivers, but I think they'd like to have him in AAA in that role...but again he might well not clear waivers. His lack of options also means he couldn't bounce up and down multiple times, because once he's up they would need to expose him to waivers again in order to send him back down. I think they like his arm, and would like to groom him as a future late reliever, one of the guys who will move in once the one-year contracts expires, but his roster status complicates matters and he could be elsewhere, particularly if his command isn't there in the spring.

 

Stetter, Luis Pena, Choate, Tim Dillard would be the other AAA guys currently on the 40-man roster who could move into the bullpen if needed, probably in that order.

 

I would be very surprised to see Aquino still around, though he might well clear waivers and be another AAA backup. I'm mildly surprised he hasn't already been DFAd.

 

I disagree with many on Wise...I think he's a useful part of a bullpen, and cheap for that matter. I wouldn't non-tender him, but the Brewers might well do so if they aren't sold on his durability. Wise is certainly fragile at this point, but he could help a lot of teams, though, and I hope that if they do move on, they'd at least trade him for a nugget rather than just dumping the guy.

[dadofandrew]

I doubt if all six of the relievers mentioned will be on the opening day roster. I would guess the 7th guy be a starter in the long relief spot.

[JonnyLungs]

Lets look at two pitchers.

 

Pitcher A: Age 31 2007: 69 IP 6.72 K/9 3.49 BB/9 1.03 HR/9 FIP 4.41

 

Pitcher B: Age 32 2007: 53 IP 7.21 K/9 2.85 BB/9 0.84 HR/9 FIP 3.81

 

Pitcher A is worth up to $20 m over 3 years while Pitcher B apparently shouldn't be on the team. Hmmm.......

Pitcher A looks like he can be used more. When you have a LOOGY like Shouse, and somebody like Turnbow who can't be overworked, I am looking to fill the rest of the five bullpen spots with guys that can throw multiple innings and/or consecutive days. In the context of the Brewers staff, I'm still taking pitcher A. Durability cannot be overlooked and Matt Wise is not durable.

 

I will miss the possibility of more Gagne/Turnbow impressions from Wise, though.

 

[fondybrewfan]

This from Rotoworld shows my feelings on Matt Wise

 

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel believes Matt Wise will be non-tendered prior to Wednesday's deadline.

 

Wise has worn No. 38 for the Brewers, but that uniform was given to Eric Gagne at Monday's press conference and no mention was made of Wise having surrendered it. We think this would be quite a mistake for the Brewers. Wise is easily a better bet than Guillermo Mota for 2008 and probably Salomon Torres, as well. He did struggle down the stretch on his way to a 4.19 ERA last season, but much of that was attributed to some mental issues after he threw a pitch that broke Pedro Lopez's cheekbone. He'll be a smart pickup if the Brewers let him go.

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

 

I might be inclined to carry an extra pitcher

 

Pitchers (13)

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villy

Bush

Vargas

Wise

Mota

Riske

Turnbow

Shouse

Torres

Gagne

 

Hitters (12)

Fielder

Weeks

Hardy

Braun

Counsell

Dillon

Hart

Hall

Gross

Gwynn

Kendall

Backup catcher

 

That is of course assumes our current roster stays in tact which it probably wont because there is no way either Dillon or Gabe Gross are an opening day starter

 

EDIT: I did assume Cappy was gone and I am sure he would bring a MLB player back but I didnt include that person in my roster

[Ennder]

Lets look at two pitchers.

 

Pitcher A: Age 31 2007: 69 IP 6.72 K/9 3.49 BB/9 1.03 HR/9 FIP 4.41

 

Pitcher B: Age 32 2007: 53 IP 7.21 K/9 2.85 BB/9 0.84 HR/9 FIP 3.81

 

Pitcher A is worth up to $20 m over 3 years while Pitcher B apparently shouldn't be on the team. Hmmm.......

To be fair pitcher A has had a 78.5% or higher LOB% for 3 years running so it is probably a skill at that point where as player B has been average to below average. Player A has also had a very strong DER for 3 years running so I have to assume at this point it is a skill for him since that comes from multiple teams.

 

Riske does scare me a little bit since his base indicators are not amazing but his trends seem to indicate that his ERA's aren't really a fluke.

[endaround]

Except pitcher B is no slouch with a BABIP of .282 in his career with a .341 last year skewing things. The point really isn't Riske is bad and doesn't have some good points, its the idea Wise takes up space at $1.5 million when he can get lefties out like he does. Thing is Wise can go to arby, get a contract and still be cut with just a prorated salary in Spring Training. No reason to dump him while Aquino sits there.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's the number that counts: $29.7 million.

 

That's the amount Melvin invested ($8 million more if Gagne and Riske meet incentives) in totally revamping the bullpen this offseason.

 

That's 4 new guys who are locks. Sure an argument could be made that holdover Wise could outperform one or two of those guys, but what role other than mopup would he have? He's probably going to get between $1.5 and 2.0 million at least if he went to arbitration. Paying even that much for a mopup guy who's eligible for free agency at the end of the year doesn't make sense. If he had any trade value, wouldn't he have been traded?

 

Melvin is committed to the guys he brought in. I applaud him for that as I was extremely worried he'd give in to the status quo.

 

It's time to let go of the past and look to the future.

[strawbossisevil]

Here's the number that counts: $29.7 million.

 

That's the amount Melvin invested ($8 million more if Gagne and Riske meet incentives) in totally revamping the bullpen this offseason.

 

That's 4 new guys who are locks. Sure an argument could be made that holdover Wise could outperform one or two of those guys, but what role other than mopup would he have? He's probably going to get between $1.5 and 2.0 million at least if he went to arbitration. Paying even that much for a mopup guy who's eligible for free agency at the end of the year doesn't make sense. If he had any trade value, wouldn't he have been traded?

 

Melvin is committed to the guys he brought in. I applaud him for that as I was extremely worried he'd give in to the status quo.

 

It's time to let go of the past and look to the future.

I don't care if he's a mop up guy or not. He's a solid arm who can be an average to above average reliever. I don't understand why someone would want a worse arm in the bullpen, when we have the potential to have a solid arm (Wise).

 

The stats end showed above are the reasons why you do not get rid of him (or if you do get rid of him, you trade him for something, perhaps a pre-arbitration reliever). He is an average/slightly above average reliever. And to be honest, I would rather our bullpen be full of those type of relievers, than to have a bum filling the last spot. Because as last year showed, the bum will still manage to pitch in important innings (who here doesn't remember Spurling got a lot of innings last season in late and close situations and he was probably the worst pitcher in our bullpen).

 

Give me the good pitcher (Wise) over the bum (McLung, Spurling etc.), even if he costs a bit more.

[Fatter than Joey]

Melvin is committed to the guys he brought in.

 

Right -- Wise will get cut before Mota or Torres -- regardless of who is better. I hope Turnbow is moved before Wise.

 

I really hope we don't carry 13 pitchers.

[dadofandrew]

Wise is a good bet to rebound to be decent, and will have plenty of suitors. However, Doug has always preferred hard throwers with big bodies...Wise was the exception, and after he struggled, was easy to let go.

[sweepscc]

Wise has been terrible for awhile. I'm liking how this bullpen is starting to form after each guy has moved down a rack in position with the acquisition of Gagne. By the end of the year it may be Mota as set up with Gagne closing.

[monty57]

I really do like statistical analysis, but it does have some faults. One of them is that it would be hard to discount the probability that Wise will ever be able to throw a stike again when a real, live person is standing in the batter's box. In most cases, it's important to look at a player's three year history. In Wise's case, I'm concerned about what happened after he drilled a guy in the face, and the probability of his ever returning to his previous self. Melvin and his staff have first-hand knowledge of this, and it seems that they don't believe the odds favor his return. At the very least, it's not worth taking the risk when your hoping to make the playoffs.

 

I hope the best for Wise. His situation isn't as bad as Koskie's, but I hope the best for both of them. That said, from a business viewpoint, the Brewers can't take the risk. Torres and Mota also bear some risk, but their down years would appear more to be more "statistical anomolies" and are therefore more likely to revert to their norms. Relievers are hard to peg year-to-year, but if I have to bet on someone, I'll bet on the strong arm with a good history and good head on his shoulders. Betting that someone who broke down mentally with bounce back scares me, and apparently scares Melvin as well. As I mentioned elsewhere, I hope Wise catches on with a rebuilding team and is able to get it back together. I doubt anyone with playoff aspirations will sign him.