Hank Blalock

[Tbadder]

What about Hall for Rolen (assuming these Cameron rumors have merit).

[brewmann04]

If we sign Cameron which is still a big if i would think Melvin would either move Hall back to third or make Hall Trade bait for a 3rd baseman

[strawbossisevil]

Hall and Capuano for Rolen and a Prospect? Might be worth it.

[aracko]

To me that is overpaying. I dont have any issues with overpaying - unless its to a division rival. It shouldnt take anything more than Bill Hall to get Rolen. Their #s the last 2 years support that.

 

 

Edit to add - the last few comments had me thinking this was the ROLEN thread. I am sorry.

[Oldcity]

I wouldn't trade Hall straight up for Rolen or Blalock. He's better than Blalock, and given the contracts, more valuable than Rolen.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Hardicourt was on Homer's show this afternoon and said the rumors out of Texas lately are that the Brewers could have Blalock for Hall/Capuano/Gross (or Gwynn) but he (Hardicourt) isn't convinced those are true.

[trwi7]

Hardicourt was on Homer's show this afternoon and said the rumors out of Texas lately are that the Brewers could have Blalock for Hall/Capuano/Gross (or Gwynn) but he (Hardicourt) isn't convinced those are true.

 

Wow that would be absolutely horrible for us. What do the Rangers think Blalock is actually good?

[fondybrewfan]

I would do Cappy and Gwynn for Blalock (I think)

[DrWood]

Blalock, if healthy, is a near ideal player since he rakes vs. RH, which is something in short supply on the roster (outside of Mr. Fielder).

[TooLiveBrew]

You're forgetting Braun and Hart, too. No slouches v. RHP. I add Weeks to that list, too, since he was at a .785-ish OPS v. RHP last year, even through his wrist injury.

[southpaw121505]

Yeah I don't get it, just because we have mostly all righties doesn't mean we suck against righties. I'm not concerned about the right handed dominance that much. I'd really rather give Hall a chance to rebound at a more natural position than give him up for Blalock, let alone us adding more to that.

[MNBrew]

If he's healthy, Blalock would be worth Hall, Vargas, & a 3rd (reserve-type) guy. Or Hall & Capuano together. Blalock does have a better overall track record than Hall as far as his power numbers go over time.

 

The nice thing is, a move like these two could still happen just as easily a month from now or two days before the start of the season.

[trwi7]

Blalock does have a better overall track record than Hall as far as his power numbers go over time.

Does he? The past three years he's had SLG% of .431, .401 and .543. Hall's have been .495, .553, .425.

[MNBrew]

Blalock does have a better overall track record than Hall as far as his power numbers go over time.

Does he? The past three years he's had SLG% of .431, .401 and .543. Hall's have been .495, .553, .425.

Yes, a better overall track record than Hall as far as his power numbers over time. Slugging is important, but when the numbers are this disparate, SLG alone is an oversimplification. The past five years:

 

Blalock:

'03: 29 HR, 90 RBI

'04: 32 HR, 110 RBI

'05: 25 HR, 92 RBI

'06: 16 HR, 89 RBI

'07: 10 HR, 33 RBI (208 AB)

totals: 112 HR, 414 RBI; average: 22.4 HR, 82.8 RBI

 

Hall:

'03: 5 HR, 20 RBI (142 AB)

'04: 9 HR, 53 RBI

'05: 17 HR, 62 RBI

'06: 35 HR, 85 RBI

'07: 14 HR, 63 RBI (452 AB - twice the AB, not as good as double the production)

totals: 80 HR, 283 RBI; average: 16 HR, 56.6 RBI

 

[TooLiveBrew]

You can't use a counting stat like HR to declare 'He has the better power track record.' If you want to point to ABs/opportunities, how about '03 & '04 when, combined, Hall amassed 432 ABs to Blalock's 1,191? That's why trwi7 noted the SLG%s.

 

Also, RBI have little to nothing to do with power. Not sure why those were included.

 

EDIT: 2005 & 2006 look to be the most easily comparable, since Blalock's AB totals were 647/591 (2005/2006) & Hall's were 501/537. It's not even close. 2007 has influenced the way you're remembering Hall a bit, imo.

[MNBrew]

2007 has influenced the way you're remembering Hall a bit, imo.

No, not at all. I did misspeak, however. I should've stated "power & run production."

Hall had a hard time cracking the lineup consistently in those earlier years because he hadn't pulled his game together, so to speak. Hall had an off year, but his only real stud-like power/run production year was '06. Blalock had 4 years of comparable production. That's my point. To boot, Blalock is also nearly a year younger than Hall.

Really, it's all in what you place value on. "Deeper stats" tell parts of the story that "surface stats" don't necessarily indicate. But they don't always trump or discount them, either. The fact that we don't place as much value in all the same stats doesn't make either of us wrong.

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I should've stated "power & run production."

 

RBI are no indication of one's ability to produce runs, rather an example of the opportunites one had to do so. You can look at any elite player and find a year where his RBI were 'down' - which doesn't mean he forgot how to drive them in.

The fact that we don't place as much value in all the same stats doesn't make either of us wrong.

 

True - however, I think you're mistaken to select RBI as an indicator of talent/ability. It's not that I don't value them (or HR), it's just that they don't tell you anything aside from whether or not a guy's teammates got on-base. There's actually a pretty good discussion of this in the Statistical Analysis forum ('OPS - overrated stat?')

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

EDIT: Hall had an off year, but his only real stud-like power/run production year was '06. Blalock had 4 years of comparable production. That's my point. To boot, Blalock is also nearly a year younger than Hall.

But here's a good example of why a counting stat like HR or RBI can mislead you. If you want to define "power" as merely HR, then SLG is relatively meaningless. A big part of "power" imo is XBH in general, with HR obviously being the most valuable. Hall (501 ABs) was able to post 39 doubles to Blalock's 34 (in 647 ABs). If you 'give' Hall the same # of ABs - 647 - his rates work out to roughly 22 HR & 50 2Bs. And again, RBI totals = opportunities way more than any other factor.

 

In that 2005 season, where Blalock had 92 RBI to Hall's 62, look at their performance with RISP & men on base:

 

Blalock - RISP: .278/.344/.396/.740; Men on: .285/.338/.462/.800

 

Hall - RISP: .238/.309/.418/.727; Men on: .268/.326/.455/.781

 

While Blalock was better, it clearly wasn't by much, and certainly not enough to explain the difference of 30 in their RBI totals.

[endaround]

Blalock has some huge questions marks. The first are his home/away splits:

2005-2007

Home: .292/.356/.497/.853

Away: .244/.296/.373/.669

His average and power booth dip away from Arlington.

He also has had huge platoon splits:

Lefties: .216/.267/.347/.614

Righties:.289/.349/.469/.818

[TheBrewer]

Well.... if we move to Arlington and play him against RHP I think we found our 3B -- we should lock him up to a long term deal

 

 

 

(should be blue http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif )

[ILuvDaBush]

I'd be blue if we threw money at him!

[MoneyballMan]

I'd be blue if we threw money at him!

I'd be bluer if we threw Hall/Capuano/Gwynn out to get him!