If Mark A. has a "cap" of $80 mil for this season...

[monkeyman343434]

I think there is still some wiggle room for another pickup or two, so far i see the roster as something like this:

Jason Kendall $4.25

Backup C 0.40

Fielder 0.50

Weeks 0.675

Braun 0.4

Hardy 2.0 * arb. eligible (guess)

Hall 4.8

Hart 0.4

Counsell 2.8

Dillon 0.4

Gross 0.4

Mench 4.0 * arby eligible

Bench spot? 0.4

 

Sheets 11.0

Gallardo 0.4

Suppan 8.0

Villanueva 0.4

Capuano 4.0 *arby guess

Bush 3.0 * arby guess

Mota 3.2

Turnbow 3.2

Riske 4.3

Gagne 10.0

Shouse 2.0 *arby guess

Torres 3.2

that brings the total to 74.125 mil for next year,

I didn't put the rotation in any kind of order, and I'm hoping Mench is gone with another 3B/LF brought in, and I think I guessed a little on the high side for Bush/Capuano/Shouse for their arby figures, plus, one of Bush or Capuano may be gone. So if Mark A. is really willing to go up to around $80 mil. for 2008, I think there is still room to take on salary to improve the club.

[trwi7]

I think you could probably get rid of Mench which opens up about $4 million and I don't think Shouse will make that much, I don't think Bush will make that much either.

[strawbossisevil]

DFA Mench, and trade Capuano for Rolen. The numbers would line up, almost exactly. Of course, Vargas would have to be trade too. But we would be at 80 million almost exactly after those two moves. (And if we can get the Cardinals to take on some salary, it would make it even more doable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not that it's impossible that there may be some sort of ceiling in place in terms of player salaries, but Attanasio hasn't seemed in the past to base player acquisitions on a number like that - rather the other way around. In other words, it'd be my guess that $5 mil. here or there for player salaries wouldn't bother Mark.

[danzig6767]

I sure would hope there is some wiggle room. I'm glad Attanasio bought the team and i don't care that he's been raking in hefty profits, but given this team has the legit talent needed to contend for a playoff berth, i'd be bothered somewhat if Mark nixed a deal to get a player that might really help the team, all to protect some profit.

 

It's his team to do what he wishes, but the fans have shown up in droves the last two years which has helped put profits in Attanasio's pocket, i'd appreciate him returning the favor if a move presented itself to help the team, but pinch his profits. I tend to think he would and am not overly worried that Mark would stop say a deal for Rolen if Melvin supported a trade that was agreed to by both teams except for our owners ok.

[Invader3K]

Personally, I have faith that Mr. Attanasio wants to be the man to bring a championship to Milwaukee. I think if the Brewers are in serious contention again at the trade deadline this coming season, the Brewers would make a move to get some help if needed.

[elbobbo82]

It's been mentioned before, but I'm pretty sure Doug went over his budget by a considerable margin last year, and Mark still made a decent profit, so I really doubt he is going to have a problem with overrunning his estimate a little again this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Don't spend money just to spend it.

 

Having wiggle room going into a season allows for picking up guys at the trade deadline.

[Fatter than Joey]

So if Mark A. is really willing to go up to around $80 mil. for 2008, I think there is still room to take on salary to improve the club.

 

You have to consider 2009 as well... The way our BP has been engineered, in 2009 -- Riske will be the only guy with a contract, -- so the Brewers in all likelihood will have to go spend $10M+(inflation) for a Gagne replacement, and $9M+(inflation) for guys like Turnbow/Mota/Torres -- so signing a guy like Rolen may be hard to do.

 

Of course DM could trade for some cheaper players under contract, etc...

[Brian the Automator]

So if Mark A. is really willing to go up to around $80 mil. for 2008, I think there is still room to take on salary to improve the club.

 

You have to consider 2009 as well... The way our BP has been engineered, in 2009 -- Riske will be the only guy with a contract, -- so the Brewers in all likelihood will have to go spend $10M+(inflation) for a Gagne replacement, and $9M+(inflation) for guys like Turnbow/Mota/Torres -- so signing a guy like Rolen may be hard to do.

 

Of course DM could trade for some cheaper players under contract, etc...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers use a couple of those extra picks to draft college closers. Now obviously, that's not a sure bet, but it could certainly factor into 2009 plans.

 

[monty57]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers use a couple of those extra picks to draft college closers. Now obviously, that's not a sure bet, but it could certainly factor into 2009 plans.

 

Melvin has to have some grand scheme, as he seemed adamant that he was only going to take relievers with one-year deals (with the obvious exception of Riske). He's either confident in some of the guys in the minors, he's going to use draft picks as you suggest, or he really likes next year's FA class, but our bp's going to be in rough shape going into next year.

 

Mench has been DFA'd, and one or two of Cappy/Bush/Vargas will be traded, so we ought to have some room. I don't know what the LF/3B we get will make. Off the top of my head, I believe the three names being bantered around make: $13MM for Rolen, $3.5MM for Kearns, league minimum for Ethier.

 

If I had my druthers, I'd go for Ethier, putting us somewhere around $65MM, and then make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder. Pay more during his final pre-arby in order to get two additional years out of him. Using an $80MM cap, that would still leave us with some payroll flexibility, and we would be set to have a good team for a long time.

[flosses like fossas]

make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder. Pay more during his final pre-arby in order to get two additional years out of him.

sorry to rain on this parade, but you've somehow overlooked the facts that prince hit 50+ bombs last year and was third in the MVP vote at age 23. oh yeah, and satan's little helper is his agent. i don't doubt that boras will have the fore$$$ight to encourage prince to be patient one more season and wait for his big payouts so that they can make the demands they wish. the only way i don't see that happening is if prince is vocal about being loyal to milwaukee.

[trwi7]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers use a couple of those extra picks to draft college closers. Now obviously, that's not a sure bet, but it could certainly factor into 2009 plans.

That's what I'm hoping for as well. We have been pretty terrible developing our own relievers and grabbing a couple of college relievers that can be fast tracked to the major league club makes too much sense with the extra picks we have.

[monty57]

make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder. Pay more during his final pre-arby in order to get two additional years out of him.

sorry to rain on this parade, but you've somehow overlooked the facts that prince hit 50+ bombs last year and was third in the MVP vote at age 23. oh yeah, and satan's little helper is his agent. i don't doubt that boras will have the fore$$$ight to encourage prince to be patient one more season and wait for his big payouts so that they can make the demands they wish. the only way i don't see that happening is if prince is vocal about being loyal to milwaukee.

 

Or he realizes that he could take a fastball to the head or blow out some part of his body and never play baseball again. I hope it won't happen, but if it does, he will have given up $60MM in guaranteed money and end up leaving baseball having made around $1MM (plus whatever signing bonus he got, but I think his dad's already spent that). There's a reason teams are hesitant to sign 6-year deals... the money's guaranteed. Prince is one of the few players I'd take that risk on.

[hauser42]

make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder. Pay more during his final pre-arby in order to get two additional years out of him.

sorry to rain on this parade, but you've somehow overlooked the facts that prince hit 50+ bombs last year and was third in the MVP vote at age 23. oh yeah, and satan's little helper is his agent. i don't doubt that boras will have the fore$$$ight to encourage prince to be patient one more season and wait for his big payouts so that they can make the demands they wish. the only way i don't see that happening is if prince is vocal about being loyal to milwaukee.

 

Prince seems to be his own man and I dont think Boras has a hold on him like a lot of people want to think. Prince knows he will get his money when it comes. Do you really get the impression from him that he wants to break the bank for his contract??

[GAME05]

i'm doing my best not to let my impression of Attanasio's spending be affected by what Selig always did. MA has only ever shown that he will spend the money if needed, and DM has always supported that statement. so if a player is needed, i try not to jump to "we can't afford it" quite yet.

 

once Prince becomes a FA, no doubt he'll justifiably demand the world, but if he indeed lives up to his potential, one thing that might sway MA to spend the money is that we could have a future HOF-er on our team for a good many years, and that would be worth the extra money.

 

Heck, who knows if Boras will still even be his agent in four or so years. His clients like ARod have been going around his back to get their contracts done, so maybe the FA environment will change in a few years. Plus in that time, Milwaukee is going to totally fall in love with Prince playing for us, so maybe staying the hero in Milwaukee will convince him he needs to stay.

 

JZ must be drooling at the number of high draft picks we have going into next year. Following what we did by getting LaPorta, I'm thinking the same thing, that we end up grabbing a lot of college players who will come in and strengthen our AAA team in a short amount of time, like grabbing potential relievers.

[flosses like fossas]

because prince has handled his success and the media modestly and maturely really gives no true bearing on whether he will or won't - by being his own man - let boras dictate his financial future. how many of boras' clients to that kind of thing? and regardless what it seems like prince wants with regard to paydays, which again is largely unknown, the fact of the matter is that he - and everybody else - knows he's in for a huge payday. i'm not saying i think prince is money-grubbing, just that i would expect him to expect a bigger payout than that in the current market.

[GAME05]

plus who knows the economics of baseball in Milwaukee in that time. heck, maybe we've made the playoffs a couple times by then, maybe ticket prices are raised but we're still selling out most games and we can absolutely afford whatever Prince will deserve.

[logan82]

make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder

 

Just FYI Miguel Cabrera got $7.4M in his first year of arbitration. No idea how Fielder would stack up against that, but I would think there is a good posibility that if he puts up numbers like he did last year again, he will get more. $10M a year sounds low.

[strawbossisevil]

Why would we save money for the Trade Deadline, if we have a hole that needs to be filled now. I would rather have a player playing well for us for an entire season, over having a player for half a season.

 

As long as we have holes, we should work on patching those holes during the offseason, even if that prohibits us from being strong players at the trade deadline.

[monty57]

make a 6 year / $60MM offer for Fielder

 

Just FYI Miguel Cabrera got $7.4M in his first year of arbitration. No idea how Fielder would stack up against that, but I would think there is a good posibility that if he puts up numbers like he did last year again, he will get more. $10M a year sounds low.

 

It may be low, but here was my reasoning:

 

He'll get around $450,000 next year. Let's say he gets $7MM / $10MM / $12MM in arby and then gets $15MM for the next two years. I think those are pretty big numbers, and that only reaches $59.5MM. Maybe he gets more in arby or in his FA contract, but that's a pretty big risk when the Brewers would be guaranteeing the money right now. Essentially, his upside potential for not taking the contract would be possibly an additional $5-10MM or so over those six years. His potential downside risk is $59.5MM if he were to get a career-ending injury next season.

 

That's not the only downside risk. He could have a bad season or injury shortened season next year, leading him to substantially lower arby payouts. Or, the market could dry up like it did a few years back after A-Rod, Manny & others signed their big deals. Or, he could weigh in at 350 pounds heading into free agency, causing teams to pass on offering him a big contract. Or, a million other scenarios could come up. Basically, the downside risk probably outweights the upside potential in taking this deal. Sure, it could be 6 year / $66MM or something like that, but I just think the offer should be made.

 

Oh, and I'm not even considering PV vs FV of money or any inflationary effects. I'll leave that to the Economics class, and just say that I think there's a good chance Prince would sign this deal. The bigger question would be whether or not the Brewers would be willing to take on the risk and offer the contract.

[logan82]

You really think Fielder is going to get less in arbitration than Cabrera got?

[monty57]

I doubt he'll ever touch arbitration. At worst, he'll sign one-year deals. There's no way the Brewers want to go to arby with him, as it would get down to saying negative things about him and hurting their chances of signing him. However, we don't know what this year will look like. He could very well have a .240 avg and 30 HR this year (the numbers that matter in arby), or he could miss a month with an injury. If he matches this year's numbers, he should get at least what Cabrera got, although the arbitrator would look at the fact that he plays a weaker defensive position, and while he has more HR, he doesn't hit for as high an average. Again, Batting average, HR and defense seem to be things arbitrators hold in high esteem.

 

Regardless, that doesn't matter. Put whatever numbers you want in there. If you want to say he'll make $8MM in year one, that's fine. I'd guess the most he'd get over the next 6 years would be maybe $70MM. We don't know how inflation will affect salaries, and we may well have deflation in salaries as we did a few years back. The real question isn't whether he'd get $7 or $7.5 or $8MM in first year of arby, it's "is the additional risk he'd take by not signing a guaranteed contract worth the potential upside he could get if he doesn't sign the contract." By transferring all of the risk to the Brewers, he may forego a few million dollars. It's definitely a risk worth taking for Fielder, it may or may not be a risk worth taking for the Brewers. I would suggest that Fielder is a person worth taking that risk on. Braun may well be worth taking that risk on in a year or two. While I like Hardy and Weeks, they are not worth taking that risk. For them, as with most players, if you want to sign them long-term, it's 3 years max, and therefore you'd wait until they're a year or two into arby before making an offer.

 

To put this another way, do you have car, health & life insurance? If so, why? Actuaries run the numbers to make sure that the insurance companies will make money. Therefore, statistically speaking, it's not a good idea to have insurance. However, the reason it's generally a good idea to get insurance is that you are able to transfer the risk of catasthrophy to someone else. In this case, it's the insurance company. In Fielder's case, it's the Brewers. In some cases, insurance companies don't want to bear the risk. If someone's had cancer, diabetes, etc, they won't insure them. The question is, are there any conditions in Fielder that would disallow the Brewers from guaranteeing him a lot of money (be it $60MM, $65MM or $70MM)? I personally think 6 years / $60MM would be a good offer for the reasons I've stated. I'm very willing to admit that it's not my area of expertise, so I may be off. I do think the six year part is important, and it's important to do it now. six years buys the Brewers two more years of Prince, and allows Prince to still be able to cash in on possibly two more big deals in his lifetime, so both sides win. Doing it now brings the average yearly salary down, due to the final pre-arby year. If you wait until next offseason, the average yearly salary will go up considerably.

 

Sorry if I've taken this thread off-track, but what they do with their young guns will determine a lot of what they can do with the rest of their roster. A move to find a 3B / LF is a given at this point, the other move I'd make would be locking up Fielder. Signing Rolen may not allow Fielder to be locked up, so I'd rather shoot for someone like Ethier.

[logan82]

I think 6 years is to long of a contract with to much risk. I wouldn't go more than 4 years and would probably wait until his first year of arbitration. I doubt he would even entertain contracts without looking into what he might get in arbitration. Also, Ihave stated it elswhere, but I would rather keep 2 players from our core than 1 and I think if we sign Fielder we lose out oan 2 of our other players.