Regarding The New And "Improved" Brewers

[bigbrewkahuna]

How does one go about convincing someone that Dougs transactions have "improved" the bullpen and catching situation thus far ?

Many (though not all) seem to think so and are quite optimistic..

 

BP arms already gone, plus New additions

others likely gone as well.

07- ERA 07-ERA

Linebrink 3.71/combined Mota 5.76

Cordero 2.98 Riske 2.45

Wise 4.19 Gagne 3.81/combined

Spurling 4.68 Torres 5.47

King 4.26/combined

Aquino 4.50

McClung 3.75/combined

 

ERA isn't the only measuring stick to judge a pitchers value.

But at a glance, Riske and his ERA is a big improvement over whomever he replaces in long relief..

However,Torres and Mota's ERA's are higher than whomever they replace.

Gagne and his 3.81 ERA are replacing Cordero and his 2.98 ERA.

Gagne could turn out to have a decent year,but for now,another dropoff when comparing last years ERA's.

3 dropoffs in ERA,one improvement ERA wise.

 

In the catching department,both Kendall and Estrada had trouble getting on base in general .

For what little its worth,Estrada did out homer Kendall 10-3 .

Both were horrid throwing out baserunners .

How specifically may I ask has Doug improved the catching situation as many (though not all) proclaim?

 

How do you convince someone that Dougs moves thus far have actually "improved" the team when at a glance to some, just the opposite has happened?

[Ennder]

ERA is an absolutely terrible way to judge RP's.

 

As for C's most believe that Kendall's struggles with Oakland were a fluke since he displayed skills right in line with his previous two years with Chicago. Kendall is a better defensive C than Estrada when you ignore throwing out runners and they were both bad at that last season.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

Kendall may not put up the #s at the plate that Johnny did, but I still take Kendall over him anyday. He works better with pitchers, who in the past on his other teams have stated they like pitching to him. Kendall plays the game the right way, he hustles and plays hard, that wins a lot of points with me. He gets on base more too. He also said his poor D is partially do to poor footwork and that he will be working with his dad, Fred, this offseason on that. Melvin pointed out something about the Oakland pitching staff being partially responsible for him having poor D numbers as far as throwing guys out.

[bigbrewkahuna]

Perhaps you are correct in your assessment of Kendall..

And when we "ignore" his problems throwing out baserunners we may find that the Brewers have a very fine catcher indeed,I just wonder if the baserunners will "ignore" that fact as well .

[Ennder]

Perhaps you are correct in your assessment of Kendall..

And when we "ignore" his problems throwing out baserunners we may find that the Brewers have a very fine catcher indeed,I just wonder if the baserunners will "ignore" that fact as well .

That isnt' what I was saying at all. I'm saying that Kendall is a decent to average defensive C except for throwing out runners. Estrada is a below average C and also stinks at throwing out runners just like Kendall does. Last year Estrada threw out 8% of players who tried to steal off of him. There is still a defensive upgrade there.

 

Kendall has also put up better offensive stats than Estrada in 2 of the last 3 years, maybe not by OPS but by any stat that weighs OBP more than SLG he has. So the real question is how much of that terrible stretch in Oakland is age related and how much was just a really bad slump. His numbers with the Cubs mirrored 2006 pretty much.

[TerraceReserved]

In the catching department,both Kendall and Estrada had trouble getting on base in general .

To judge a batter, it's better not to look at just one year of performance. Last year Kendall struggled in Oakland but got on base at a .360 clip with Chicago. I'd expect him to be around that again this year, as his career OBP is .375. Estrada has had 2 years of above average OBP and he's stunk the rest of his career.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't think there is a way to convince someone that Doug's moves are good.

 

I'm a fan of what Doug has done, but I would judge the odds that the brewers bullpen is really good next year is about the same as they will stink. Part of that is just the nature of relief pitchers, part of it is the guys Doug brought in need to rebound from last year.

 

The proof will be in the pudding. But I won't put too much stock in anyone who claims once the season starts that they knew the bullpen would be good or bad. I think we have a better chance for success, based on not needing to use Acquino, spurling, balfour, etc. We now have legitimate major league arms, the question is, can they rebound from some subpar seasons.

[brewerfan82]

I completely agree that predicting bullpen success is incredibly difficult, however, I think Doug has done a very good job of rebuilding the bullpen after losing Linebrink and Cordero and adding some experienced arms to the mix.

 

 THREE-YEAR SPLITS
*** 2008 BULLPEN *** *** 2007 BULLPEN ***
ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 BAA/OPS ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 BAA/OPS
[b]Gagne 3.48 1.25 10.2 3.3 .230/.652 Cordero 3.38 1.26 10.8 3.5 .234/.657[/b]
[b]Riske 3.04 1.15 6.2 2.8 .228/.681 Linebrink 3.03 1.20 7.7 2.9 .235/.669[/b]
Turnbow 4.27 1.35 10.2 5.1 .211/.656 Turnbow 4.27 1.35 10.2 5.1 .211/.656
[b]Torres 3.55 1.34 6.4 3.4 .255/.699 Villanueva 3.86 1.24 7.4 3.4 .230/.723[/b]
Wise 3.77 1.23 7.3 3.1 .233/.674 Wise 3.77 1.23 7.3 3.1 .233/.674
[b]Mota 4.99 1.41 7.6 3.7 .258/.774 Spurling 4.12 1.34 3.9 2.8 .267/.747[/b]
Shouse 4.13 1.37 5.8 3.2 .264/.718 Shouse 4.13 1.37 5.8 3.2 .264/.718 

 

Gagne/Riske for Cordero/Linebrink is almost an exact wash. Throw in 4 high round draft picks and about $35M and it's near impossible to fault the exchange. I think Mota's ability to bounce back to his form from a few seasons ago is key to whether or not this bullpen improves from last year.

[pitchleague]

Wise and Spurling are gone? since when?

 

I understand what you are saying, but man alive, can we at least wait until Spring Training to start moaning about what our team does/doesn't look like. It's December 9th and all I keep reading about is that this team, despite it's moves, will be going nowhere in relation to our 2007 season.

[logan82]

At this point I would consider Kendall and Estrada a wash. Have to wait and see how Kendall does behind the plate.

 

Our bulpen has more guys with solid career numbers out of the pen than we had last year. This should help our bulpen towards the end of he year. Improved defense( and starting pitching should help the pen as well.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With the addition of a plethora of bullpen arms over the past few weeks (especially if torres doesn't retire), the Brewers have a ton of pitchers currently on their 40-man roster. There will be at least one more trade involving multiple players that will play a huge role in shaping the 08 roster. I'm planning on waiting until the next series of moves (combination of arby offers + trades) happens before grading what Melvin's done to bolster the Brewers' roster.

 

As it looks right now, he has enough expendable pieces to be able to go out and acquire a 3B (LaRoche, Teahen, Rolen, Crede) or an OF (Ethier, Kemp, Ibanez, etc) or a combination of both to really solidify this roster. The moves he's been making adds bullpen depth that was seriously lacking last season. If he can add defensive upgrades by moving Braun off 3rd, bringing in a solid 3b or OF combination, and keep the bullpen depth he currently has, there's no question that he's upgraded the roster from where it was at this time last season.

[Bert55]

In regard to Kendall....He is a quality catcher. The truth of the matter, there are very few id NO superstar catchers anymore in the league. There are no Berra's....Bench's.....heck, Ted Simmon's would be the best catcher in the NL if he could turn back the clock. I am very satisfied with Kendall and all we ask is he plays hard and instills confidence with our young pitching staff.

[TooLiveBrew]

Victor Martinez
Jorge Posada
Brian McCann
Jason Varitek
Russell Martin

Even though I agree heartily with you that the injection of OBP Kendall will provide is going to be nice.

[bigbrewkahuna]

Good responses everyone.

The only move that still leaves a bit of doubt in my mind is the Estrada/Mota trade.

Get Estrada healthy again and I would have no problem with a Kendall/Estrada catching tandem next year over a Kendall/Munson or Rivera duo.

But once again,In Doug We Trust I suppose/hope.

[Ennder]

I would think that if Melvin could turn back the clock he probably wouldn't have done the Mota deal. How could he know that we would get Torres, Gagne and Riske when so many teams are looking for relief help.

 

It is only rumor but I think Estrada bought his ticket out of town off the field. I'm not going to spread the things I've heard but I don't think keeping him was ever an option.

[naivin]

I think its pretty obvious they couldn't get Estrada out of town fast enough. I don't think they wanted him anywhere near their pitchers - particularly young guys like Gallardo and Parra - for a minute longer than they had to. The very reason I assume the view Kendall as an upgrade. He's not going to do anything spectacular, but he'll be consistent, and very rarely will he hurt you. It would appear that he has more baseball IQ in his little finger than Estrada has in his more than ample body.

 

As for the bullpen, just like every season it seems...we'll see. Lots of question marks, but lots of potentially good answers as well.

 

Now, there's another move or two to be made around LF, 3B, whatever the combination, and that one will be made to improve the defense first and foremost...

[logan82]

I don't think they would have kept Estrada as a backup. It sounded like Estrada didn't get along with Maddux. I don't think Suppan much cared for Estrada either seeing as how either Rivera or Miller caught Suppan all of September.

 

I forgot to add that the Mets are trying to move Estrada. At least I think so anyway.

[yoshii8]

I feel that Doug has made our bullpen into one of the best and deepest in the league. I have to say Melvin did way more than I expected, and didn't give up any of the starting pitching surplus. I'm extremely optimistic that either one or both of Mota and/or Torres will rebound. Gagne showed that he was healthy last year, and the upside of this signing is huge, escpecially w/ a move to the NL. Riske has been solid for years, and will be very reliable. With Turnbow, Shouse, and either Bush or Wise rounding it out, I'm very satisfied.

 

Regarding Kendall, I don't feel strongly either way, but I still think a lot of people, including myself, are trying to talk themselves into believing this was a good move. I guess we'll see. I'm hoping for good OBP and improved defense out of Kendall and to acquire a young backup catcher to learn from him, I guess I'm not sold on Rivera or Munson. I'd be thrilled if we could land a Mathis or Clement type prospect.

 

I think the 10 million dollar Gagne signing shows that they are really going for it this year, and I expect a big time pick up at 3rd/LF to fill out the roster.

 

I think the most exciting things are that we still have all of our trade bait, our bullpen is finished and improved, and we only have one spot that we need to improve. The front office can now focus all of their attention on finding the right player to fill the LF/3B void. This is one heck of a position to be in this early in the off-season.

[naivin]

I would think that if Melvin could turn back the clock he probably wouldn't have done the Mota deal. How could he know that we would get Torres, Gagne and Riske when so many teams are looking for relief help.

Maybe, but it also puts the Brewers in a very favorable position dealing with those other teams. Nothing to stop them from trading Torres and Mota in particular at any point, and they have the ability to add a bunch of other guys to that list as well. Could make addressing the LF/3B situation a whole lot easier. Mota gives us greater ability to trade [releif] pitching which frankly is probably more valuable right now than Estrada would be.

[TooLiveBrew]

I have to say Melvin did way more than I expected, and also didn't give up any of the starting pitching surplus yet.

 

I agree heartily. If anything, this has been Melvin's best offseason in terms of pitching, through his tenure in Milwaukee.

 

As for Kendall, even if we only get an upgrade in OBP (as in, D stays roughly the same), I'll be quite happy.

[logan82]

Regarding Kendall, I don't feel strongly either way, but I still think a lot of people, including myself, are trying to talk themselves into believing this was a good move.

I think a lot of people see the Estrada to Kendall change as mostly a lateral move. Mostly a change in attitude, maybe.

[TooLiveBrew]

Attitude, and likely (hopefully) OBP.

[Thurston Fluff]

Regarding Kendall, I don't feel strongly either way, but I still think a lot of people, including myself, are trying to talk themselves into believing this was a good move.

I think a lot of people see the Estrada to Kendall change as mostly a lateral move. Mostly a change in attitude, maybe.

 

When it comes to catching attitude and the ability to call the game the way the pitching coach and puitcher wants is as, if not more, important than either offense or defense. The mian job of a catcer IMO is calling a good game for the pitcher. If he does that well the rest is a bonus.

 

I like the fact that Melvin finally got veteran relief help to go along with his usual signing of guys like Choate to minor league deals. If one or two of those unknown guys pulls a Kolb, Turnbow or Wise we'd have a dominant pen. What I like about what Melvin did is all the guys he signed have a long enough history in the majors to be predicatable in thier perfromance. They may not be all stars but they should be reliable, steady, major league caliber contributors.

[wallus]

I just like the fact that Doug has been able to do all of this without losing us any draft picks, keeping flexibility for year (maybe even more picks then) and improving the team. I also really happy to see Estrada go. The only thing left is to acquire one more big bat and then trade the excess pitching.

[Samurai Bucky]

I'm just wondering if the strategy of stockpiling pitching is the same strategy used by the Braves when they won so many divisional crowns. I often hear how valuable pitching is and it seems like having an overabunance of decent pitching is a very nice luxury to have.

 

Now, as long as he moves some of his surplus...